Gillick Chimes In

The Phillies and first-year GM Ruben Amaro Jr raised eyebrows this offseason when they quickly signed Raul Ibanez to a 3-yr/$31.5 mil contract. Many analysts, myself included, jumped all over the move, questioning Ibanez’s performance and productivity in relation to the terms of the deal while simultaneously comparing the former Mariner to Phillies stalwart Pat Burrell. One critique of the signing that initially took a backseat to the performance comparison involves the surplus of similar players on the market. With at least six corner outfielders eligible for free agency, especially in this economy, Ibanez could have been had for a much lower salary.

According to former Phillies GM Pat Gillick, this might not be true. While hanging around Clearwater, the Phillies home for Spring Training, Gillick remarked that the Cubs had a strong interest in Ibanez and were pushing pretty hard. Lou Piniella and Ibanez shared a solid relationship dating back to Sweet Lou’s managerial tenure in Seattle and was extremely high on the left-handed left-fielder.

The Cubs desired a left-handed outfielder and apparently Ibanez topped their list. If this is true, then the Phillies acted similarly to the Braves with Derek Lowe. Frank Wren and Co. jumped on Lowe, perhaps even paying him a bit more, when they heard the Phillies were seriously considering moving Brett Myers to free up some payroll space. It would also mean that, if the Phillies were also sold on Ibanez as the best choice, the rationale behind the years/dollars is not as transparent as before. Don’t get me wrong, I still consider it a very poor deal due to his age, fielding, and potentially declining offense, but it now makes more sense why they signed him so early in the offseason: they felt he was the guy and learned of a serious competitor. In my eyes they are wrong, but at least their reasoning is a bit more known despite being overly incorrect.

Gillick also touched on the Pat Burrell situation, implying that the Phillies had plenty of interest in his return, but debates raged over specific contractual terms. The actual average annual value was not the problem, but rather the years. Given that the Phillies have stated they offered Burrell a 2-yr/$22 mil deal, I’m guessing Burrell wanted 3-yr/$33 mil. Halfway through the season that may actually have been realistic as an extension, but given all of the factors mentioned at the top of this post, it simply wasn’t going to happen in the free agent market.

The big issue arose when the Phillies signed Ibanez to the above-market contract and then witnessed the market collapse to the point that Burrell could only coax the Rays for 2-yr/$16 mil. He is more productive than Raul, and younger, and signed for half the total dollars. The problem here isn’t necessarily that the Phillies hopped on a player very early in an odd market, but that they felt Ibanez was such a superior option than everyone else. Had they practiced some due diligence, they not only could have brought back the more productive player, but they could have done so at a vastly discounted price.





Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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alskor
15 years ago

Wait… so the fact the Cubs were also willing to pay an absurd amount somehow justifies giving Ibanez that terrible contract…?

Nice try, Mr. Gillick…