The Late-January ZiPS Projected Standings Update
In case you missed them, the 2026 ZiPS projections are now officially in the site’s projection database for your delight (or disdain), and reflect all of the signings and trades that have transpired this offseason. There’s still a week and a half to go before pitchers and catchers report, but with the full set of projections available, and it being so cold and snowy outside that I have little desire to leave my house, this seemed like a good opportunity to run the first set of ZiPS projected standings for the 2026 season. These, of course, aren’t the final projected standings, as there are likely to be significant changes between now and Opening Day. Instead, think of them as the “state of the preseason” projections.
These standings are the result of a million simulations, not results obtained from binomial or even beta-binomial magic. The methodology isn’t identical to the one we use for our Playoff Odds, which will launch soon. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first- through 99th-percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as a jumping off point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my reasoned understanding of each team. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion.
After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk that changes the baseline plate appearances or innings pitched for each player. ZiPS then automatically and proportionally “fills in” playing time from the next players on the list to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings.
The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each one of them. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. I promise this is much less complex than it sounds.
The goal of ZiPS is to be less awful than any other way of predicting the future. The future is tantalizingly close, but fundamentally beyond our knowledge, and if anyone figures out how to deflect the astrophysicist Arthur Eddington’s arrow of time, it’s probably not going to come in the form of baseball projections. So we project probabilities, not certainties. If that does not satisfy you, just assume that any deviation from the actual results is due to flaws in reality.
Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.1 correct teams when looking at the Vegas preseason over/under lines. I’m always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit in predicting how teams will perform has already been harvested. ZiPS’ misses for teams from year to year are uncorrelated, with an r-squared of one year’s miss to the next of 0.000557. In other words, none of the year-to-year misses for individual franchises have told us anything about future misses for those franchises.
Also remember that these are median standings, meaning that they represent every team’s 50th-percentile projection. These have a tighter range than the actual standings because we don’t expect every team to hit their 50th-percentile projection, but rather for three teams, on average, to beat their 90th-percentile projection, six to beat their 80th-percentile projection, and so on. The highest median win total projected in the AL Central right now is 83 wins, but that’s very different than projecting that the best team in the AL Central will win 83 games. In fact, the AL Central winner in the simulation averages 90.5 wins!
So let’s get to the standings, starting with the AL East:
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | 80th | 20th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 90 | 72 | — | .556 | 32.1% | 40.5% | 72.6% | 4.8% | 99.8 | 82.9 |
| Boston Red Sox | 90 | 72 | — | .556 | 25.8% | 46.7% | 72.5% | 4.9% | 97.7 | 83.2 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 88 | 74 | 2 | .543 | 22.2% | 39.5% | 61.7% | 5.8% | 97.3 | 79.8 |
| New York Yankees | 87 | 75 | 3 | .537 | 18.9% | 41.4% | 60.3% | 5.4% | 96.0 | 79.7 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 75 | 87 | 15 | .463 | 1.1% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 0.5% | 82.6 | 67.5 |
ZiPS doesn’t see the AL East all that differently from how it did last preseason, though it does anticipate a slightly larger separation at the top of the division, with the Jays and Red Sox tied for first, and the Orioles and Yankees falling a couple of games back. There is a difference in the projection profiles of the Red Sox and Jays, however. Despite the same median win projection, ZiPS sees the Red Sox with a very slightly better downside due to their depth and flexibility, while the Blue Jays have more high-end uncertainty. If the Blue Jays roll high on George Springer and Anthony Santander, Trey Yesavage is as good as he has been in his brief professional history, and we get either an MVP version of Vladito or an Andrés Giménez who rediscovers his early offensive potential, this team is the most dangerous one in the American League. The Orioles haven’t added a high-end pitcher, but they have added some stability, and the lineup looks solid.
The Rays still project to have a decent chance to make the playoffs — they make the playoff more often in simulations than Aaron Judge hits a home run in any given at-bat — but ZiPS just doesn’t see their upside matching the other teams in the division.
Moving to the Central:
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | 80th | 20th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 83 | 79 | — | .512 | 36.7% | 12.6% | 49.3% | 2.4% | 91.9 | 76.0 |
| Kansas City Royals | 83 | 79 | — | .512 | 31.6% | 13.3% | 44.9% | 2.5% | 90.7 | 75.3 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 79 | 83 | 4 | .488 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 30.9% | 2.1% | 87.6 | 71.8 |
| Minnesota Twins | 77 | 85 | 6 | .475 | 10.7% | 8.2% | 19.0% | 1.1% | 84.2 | 69.6 |
| Chicago White Sox | 69 | 93 | 14 | .426 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 75.8 | 63.1 |
The AL Central is a fairly low-ceiling environment, so each team has some realistic chance to prevail. The Tigers are good, but their lineup is short on actual stars, and the natural risk of pitcher injury means that they don’t get 100% Tarik Skubal in a lot of their simulations. And without 100% Skubal, this team looks a lot less intimidating. The Royals have some holes, but the left side of the infield is crazy-good and the pitching is on relatively safe ground. The Guardians have lineup concerns and a rather low-impact, though stable, starting rotation, and ZiPS doesn’t believe the Twins are anywhere near as bad as much of baseball thinks.
The division is weak enough that there’s even a chance that the White Sox steal the thing. The team isn’t actually good at the moment, but unlike last season, they haven’t larded the April lineup with a bunch of older retreads. Every starting hitter, with the probable exception of Andrew Benintendi, has some cognizable breakout potential. Taking a risk like signing Munetaka Murakami is exactly what the White Sox should be doing, and I don’t often say the White Sox are doing exactly what the White Sox should be doing. To the West:
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | 80th | 20th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 88 | 74 | — | .543 | 46.6% | 22.2% | 68.8% | 6.0% | 96.9 | 81.6 |
| Houston Astros | 87 | 75 | 1 | .537 | 35.4% | 23.7% | 59.1% | 6.8% | 95.0 | 79.1 |
| Texas Rangers | 80 | 82 | 8 | .494 | 12.1% | 16.9% | 29.0% | 2.0% | 88.1 | 72.2 |
| Oakland A’s | 74 | 88 | 14 | .457 | 5.2% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 0.3% | 83.5 | 66.7 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 68 | 94 | 20 | .420 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 75.8 | 60.6 |
ZiPS projects the Mariners to be the class of the division, but it would warn you not to write off the Astros, even without Framber Valdez. This isn’t the world beating team of the late 2010s, but the ‘Stros are largely devoid of serious holes, though there are real depth concerns that could come back to bite them.
Adding MacKenzie Gore definitely improves Texas’ rotation, and I’m happy he probably won’t have to suffer another undeserved 5-15 record, but ZiPS still sees the Rangers as being too middling offensively and too mediocre in relief to escape baseball’s middle class. It was nice to see Jacob deGrom healthy in 2025, but ZiPS doesn’t want to bank on that.
The A’s do have postseason potential, as ZiPS thinks that they have a playoff-caliber offense, and the projections take a huge jump when a couple of the starting pitchers figure things out. Unfortunately, the computer just doesn’t see a lot to recommend the Los Angeles Angels at this time.
Shifting to the National League, beginning with the NL East:
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | 80th | 20th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 91 | 71 | — | .562 | 40.0% | 31.6% | 71.5% | 7.6% | 99.9 | 82.4 |
| New York Mets | 89 | 73 | 2 | .549 | 31.7% | 34.3% | 65.9% | 6.1% | 97.6 | 81.0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 86 | 76 | 5 | .531 | 23.8% | 31.6% | 55.4% | 5.8% | 95.9 | 77.2 |
| Miami Marlins | 76 | 86 | 15 | .469 | 4.5% | 15.0% | 19.5% | 0.2% | 85.5 | 67.6 |
| Washington Nationals | 63 | 99 | 28 | .389 | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 71.9 | 54.9 |
The Phillies’ core is fairly old, so this team is not inevitable, though ZiPS still thinks they’re the one to bet on in 2026. ZiPS expects a bounce-back season from Aaron Nola, and a lot will come down to just how healthy and effective Zack Wheeler is. If Wheeler gets back on track quickly, the Phils ought to be able to shrug off Ranger Suárez’s departure fairly effectively. Andrew Painter’s projections aren’t exciting, but he does have significant upside remaining.
Despite the loss of Pete Alonso, ZiPS thinks the Mets had a pretty effective offseason. The feeling of impending disaster is just a characteristic of the franchise. The Braves ought to have a better season, but there’s simply more uncertainty and a bit less upside than there was when this team was cruising along. Turning to the Central:
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | 80th | 20th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 87 | 75 | — | .537 | 42.1% | 20.5% | 62.5% | 5.0% | 95.4 | 80.1 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 86 | 76 | 1 | .531 | 40.3% | 20.9% | 61.2% | 4.5% | 95.2 | 79.7 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 78 | 84 | 9 | .481 | 6.9% | 11.6% | 18.5% | 0.6% | 84.7 | 70.5 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 77 | 85 | 10 | .475 | 6.3% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 0.6% | 84.3 | 69.8 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 74 | 88 | 13 | .457 | 4.4% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 0.4% | 82.5 | 67.1 |
ZiPS doesn’t see a lot of big changes in this division compared to last season. The Brewers have moved a bit in the projections, looking strong even without Freddy Peralta in large part because I’m giving more playing time to the players ZiPS likes than I usually do, as my failure to do so has been the biggest reason the system has underestimated Milwaukee in recent years. I have no idea what projection systems the Brewers care about, but they give a lot of playing time to surprising guys who ZiPS likes, and it has mostly worked out for them. The Cubs remain very strong, with ZiPS mainly concerned about the rotation.
ZiPS sees the remaining three teams as all having serious enough problems that they’d need a lot of things to go their way to threaten the Brewers and the Cubs. Both the Reds and Pirates are towards the bottom of baseball in projected value from their starting lineups, and the Cardinals, while fairly stable, simply lack some of the high-end potential that the other two also-rans have in players like Paul Skenes and Elly De La Cruz. Finally, the West:
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | 80th | 20th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 96 | 66 | — | .593 | 68.9% | 22.8% | 91.7% | 18.2% | 103.7 | 89.5 |
| San Francisco Giants | 84 | 78 | 12 | .519 | 14.6% | 35.5% | 50.1% | 1.6% | 93.4 | 77.5 |
| San Diego Padres | 83 | 79 | 13 | .512 | 10.0% | 31.9% | 41.9% | 2.8% | 91.3 | 75.9 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 81 | 81 | 15 | .500 | 6.5% | 25.0% | 31.5% | 2.0% | 89.0 | 73.3 |
| Colorado Rockies | 61 | 101 | 35 | .377 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 68.5 | 53.8 |
The Dodgers are still the class of the division, but their invincibility has been vastly overrated. That they won the last two World Series championships doesn’t mean they were overwhelming favorites to do so. But hey, this is the best projection in baseball, so one can hardly complain too much.
ZiPS remains unsure of Arizona’s rotation, and doesn’t see it taking much in the way of starting pitcher injuries for the wheels to fall off the Padres. The Giants ought to have a pretty valuable lineup, but their rotation has serious questions of its own after Logan Webb. I think the Rockies are doing a lot of what they need to do, and have for the last year or so, but we’re still seeing the long-term effects of just how wrecked the organization was during the Jeff Bridich era. I’m optimistic about Paul DePodesta’s operation long-term, but right now, they’re still the equivalent of the contestant on Top Chef whose secret ingredient in the upcoming challenge is revealed to be gym socks. It’s going to be a while until this team is good. But hey, their playoff probability doesn’t round to 0%!
| To Win | 10th | 20th | 30th | 40th | 50th | 60th | 70th | 80th | 90th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL East | 91.2 | 93.9 | 95.9 | 97.6 | 99.2 | 100.8 | 102.5 | 104.4 | 107.2 |
| AL Central | 82.8 | 85.4 | 87.3 | 89.0 | 90.5 | 92.1 | 93.8 | 95.8 | 98.5 |
| AL West | 85.9 | 88.6 | 90.6 | 92.4 | 94.1 | 95.8 | 97.6 | 99.8 | 102.8 |
| To Win | 10th | 20th | 30th | 40th | 50th | 60th | 70th | 80th | 90th |
| AL Wild Card 1 | 88.1 | 89.9 | 91.3 | 92.5 | 93.7 | 95.0 | 96.3 | 97.8 | 100.1 |
| AL Wild Card 2 | 84.8 | 86.4 | 87.6 | 88.6 | 89.6 | 90.6 | 91.8 | 93.2 | 95.1 |
| AL Wild Card 3 | 82.2 | 83.7 | 84.8 | 85.8 | 86.7 | 87.6 | 88.6 | 89.8 | 91.5 |
| To Win | 10th | 20th | 30th | 40th | 50th | 60th | 70th | 80th | 90th |
| NL East | 88.7 | 91.8 | 94.1 | 96.0 | 97.8 | 99.6 | 101.5 | 103.7 | 106.7 |
| NL Central | 85.3 | 87.9 | 89.8 | 91.5 | 93.2 | 94.9 | 96.8 | 98.9 | 101.9 |
| NL West | 90.2 | 92.8 | 94.8 | 96.6 | 98.3 | 100.1 | 102.0 | 104.3 | 107.6 |
| To Win | 10th | 20th | 30th | 40th | 50th | 60th | 70th | 80th | 90th |
| NL Wild Card 1 | 88.1 | 89.9 | 91.3 | 92.5 | 93.6 | 94.8 | 96.1 | 97.6 | 99.9 |
| NL Wild Card 2 | 84.7 | 86.3 | 87.6 | 88.6 | 89.6 | 90.6 | 91.7 | 93.0 | 94.7 |
| NL Wild Card 3 | 82.1 | 83.7 | 84.8 | 85.8 | 86.7 | 87.6 | 88.6 | 89.8 | 91.4 |
That’s all for now! I’ll run another update once spring training starts in a few weeks. Hopefully some of the remaining free agents will find new homes before then.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Surprised to see the Phillies at the top of the NL East
I think they’re probably too high. I’ve been really high on them the last couple of years because their rotation was so loaded. But I don’t think ZiPS can take into account Wheeler’s health situation, and between that, Suarez leaving, and literally all of their best position players being older I think this team is likely in a worse place than last year.
Wheeler and Suarez accounted for 10.4 fWAR last year. Even if Nola bounced back to being a 3-win pitcher, losing them is going to hurt. And that outfield is not great offensively. They might need to platoon every single one of those projected starters to make it work.
Your also getting 2 less wins from Schwarber coming off a career season at age 32. Also, bryce isnt a superstar anymore averaging 3.5-4 wins a season the past 4 years, and trea turner at age 33 this season isnt likely to repeat his best defensive season in his career and his Fwar could drop by 2-3 as well (per projections). This team could have the biggest dropoff of any team in the league
All of those assumptions are already included in the individual zips projections. Turner is projected at 4.3, Harper at 3.1 and everyone else below 3. Pitching is exactly the same, Sanchez at 4.3, Luzardo at 3.1 and everyone else below 3. Literally no one is arguing that Wheeler is good for 5 wins, but he’s projected for 2.7 in 21 starts and that seems reasonable.
I’d go ahead and disagree that a median projection of 2.7 WAR for Wheeler is reasonable. Coming off a major injury as an older player, there’s significant risk that he provides little or no value. That 2.7 WAR in 21 starts seems more like a near-best case scenario.
Things always look decent for aging teams until they don’t and fans are left in disbelief. It’s a story as old as time.
There’s definitely a risk he provides no value, but I doubt 2.7 WAR is his ceiling either. Pitchers sometimes are basically normal the year after surgery which gives him a pretty high upside. I’d take 2.7 WAR though, so in that sense it might be slightly high.
On the bigger point, this does feel like it could easily be 2012 again. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won anywhere from 75-100 games. Seems like a crapshoot with a lot of aging talent.
Yes I am aware of that, I am going one step further saying that guys aged 32-33(Schwarber, Harper, Turner, Wheeler, etc) arent going to continue meeting or exceeding their projections and they carry higher risk of failing. A 26 year projected to be worth 3.5 fWAR and a 33 year old projected the same, i am more worried about the 33 year old meeting that projection much less exceeding it, thats all im saying.
The projections already take age into account.
The Phillies seem to have a history of locking in an aging core without a real plan to get younger and more competitive. People forget that it took them an entire decade to recover from holding on to Rolins-Howard-Utley etc three years too long and that their resurgence included a rather fluky trip to the World Series in a year where they weren’t exactly dominant. And also that their entire recent history isn’t exactly that of world-killers; their leading WAR player three years ago was Bryson Stott of all people at 4.3. They’ve gotten by largely on depth and a sort of lucky timing where their best players have spaced out their best seasons, rather than everyone playing way over their heads for one season, a la 2021 San Francisco, and then regressing all at once.
I just think that too many things have to go right for them and too few things can be written in ink for them to be rated this highly relative to their competition. 91 wins is easily achievable, but these prediction models are always conservative about win totals.
im basing this off of less than tea leaves – but i feel like bryce has a monster season coming up. i think hes got one or two more elite seasons and this will be one of them
I kinda agree, if I had to pick who was gonna have one more MVP season in their career out of Turner, Harper, or Schwarber, i would bet its Harper, he has taken to 1B very well.
What does this even mean? He plays a very average first base. And settling into the easiest defensive position doesn’t seem to have made his bat any better.
He’s had exactly two “monster seasons” in his entire 14-year career. I’m not sure this is a reasonable expectation. The best I think you can hope for are more years like 2024 (where he looks like a less positionally valuable Kyle Tucker) and fewer like this last one.
Their bullpen has a lot more depth. And full seasons from Duran, Alvarado, and Keller should compensate for the loss of Suarez. What about Wheeler’s projection do you not agree with?
The only team in the division with a comparable rotation is Atlanta and their innings projection seems generous.
That he will pitching much. Or at the same level. Anything they get out of him is a bonus.
He’s supposed to return in late May. No setbacks in the recovery timeline yet. There have been other cases of pitchers returning to MLB after vascular TOS: notably, Merrill Kelly and Alex Cobb. I think the projection seems fair.
Sanchez will not repeat his 8 WAR season for one thing.
In fairness, all of us are also older this year than last year
We, at least, have some hope that our friends and families aren’t constantly restocking their farm system with our younger, more talented replacements.
My son is 2 now, and let me tell you, I’ve never felt more like a depreciating asset in my life (also, his Hair Over Replacement Value lead over me is insurmountable)
Can you please tell that to Mrs. Jason B?
Too low. Should be projected for 95 wins. Wheeler back and Painter will be better than projected along with Garcia.
“Too low” he says about the team ranked literally second in baseball by ZiPS. You’re thinking they should be ahead of the Dodgers, then?
Phillies have major risk of falling off a cliff within the next few years. Can’t predict it necessarily but I don’t foresee a smooth decline for them. Nola might be cooked and just resigned last year. Wheeling with TOS is a huge question mark. Offense continues to age and did not improve at all, even with shedding Castellanos (theoretically, what are they waiting for?)