The Nationals Will Be There With Josh Bell On

Since the last time Josh Bell suited up for the Nationals on August 1, 2022, he has played for four different teams. The Nationals dealt him to the Padres alongside Juan Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. Then he became a free agent and signed a two-year, $33 million deal with the Guardians, only for Cleveland to flip him to the Marlins the following summer. He swam with the Fish for just under a year before it was Miami’s turn to cast him off at the deadline in 2024. Finally, after finishing out this past season with the Diamondbacks, Bell is returning to Washington on a one-year, $6 million contract. That closes the circle on a two-and-a-half-year expedition that took him from the East Coast to the West Coast to the Midwest to the wetlands to the desert and back to the nation’s capital. According to Google Maps, it would take you just over 166 days to walk that journey. Bell, not exactly known for his footspeed, did it in 881.

With the Gold Glover Nathaniel Lowe likely to see most of the playing time at first base, Bell should slot in as Washington’s everyday designated hitter. Bell has primarily played first throughout his career, but his defense has always been lacking, even by the standards of the position. He has never finished a season with a positive DRS, and only once has he finished with a positive OAA or FRV. In 2024, Bell ranked last among all first basemen in DRS and second to last in OAA and FRV, despite playing just 98 games at the position. As long as Lowe stays healthy, which he’s largely managed to do throughout his career, the Nationals won’t need to worry about Bell’s glove at first. Meanwhile, Bell won’t need to worry about the harsh positional adjustment for designated hitters dragging down his overall numbers. A full-time DH who plays all 162 games would finish with -17.5 Def; Bell finished with -17.8 Def in 2024. As long as he sticks at DH, things can’t get any worse.

Of course, that also means Bell’s defensive value won’t get any better. If he’s going to improve upon a replacement-level (-0.1 WAR) 2024 season, he’ll need to do it with his offense. More specifically, he’ll need to do it with his bat. Over the past four years, Bell has been the least productive baserunner in the sport, with -17.6 BsR. His best baserunning season in that span was 2021, when he finished with -3.9 BsR, eighth-worst in the majors. To put that in context, -3.9 BsR is so low that Steamer doesn’t project anyone to finish with -3.9 BsR in 2025. Heck, Steamer doesn’t have anyone else finishing below -2.9, while Bell is projected for -2.3. Bell’s baseline is such an aberration that Steamer refuses to accept it as his (or anyone’s) 50th-percentile outcome.

Despite his shortcomings in the field and on the bases, Bell can still be a valuable player as long as he’s hitting – just look at his Silver Slugger-winning season in 2022. However, he’s been little more than a league-average bat for the past two years. Across 1,220 plate appearances from 2023-24, Bell has slashed .248/.322/.412 with a 102 wRC+ (his bat did improve with the D-backs after the deadline, to the tune of a 123 wRC+ in 162 PA). All three of his triple-slash figures are within 2% of the league average in that time. His 9.3% walk rate and 20.8% strikeout rate are still good, but when it comes to balls in play, he’s hit nearly half of them on the ground (49% groundball rate). That’s way too many grounders for such a slow runner. What’s more, Bell hasn’t compensated for those groundballs by hitting the ball hard enough when he puts it in the air. His adjusted exit velocity on balls in the air has only been 0.6 mph faster than average the last two years.

To make matters worse, Bell’s quality of contact metrics dropped steeply in 2024. In 2023, his .403 xwOBAcon (compared to a .370 wOBAcon) suggested he might have been the victim of some bad luck on balls in play. By contrast, his .348 xwOBAcon in 2024 was worse than his .357 wOBAcon. Moreover, it was significantly below league average and easily the lowest xwOBAcon of Bell’s career. Simply put, that’s not a great sign for a hitter in his 30s who hasn’t had truly elite exit velocities in several years.

For the Nationals, however, even another replacement-level season from Bell would represent a massive improvement over the 70 wRC+ and -2.2 WAR they got from their designated hitters in 2024. Of their 11 players who took more than 10 PA at DH, only one, Jesse Winker, had a wRC+ above league average. And even then, his 103 wRC+ was still 5% worse than the league average for a DH:

All the same, the Nationals are surely hoping Bell looks more like he did the last time he was in their lineup than the player he’s been ever since. In 247 games with Washington from 2021-22, Bell crushed 41 home runs, drew 114 walks to just 162 strikeouts, and produced a 130 wRC+. His 5.0 WAR was second on the team only to Soto’s 9.3. Whether you look at RBI or wRAA, Bell was one of the top 30 run producers in baseball.

It’s not as if that success came out of nowhere, either. Bell was an above-average hitter during his days with the Pirates, too. In five seasons between 2016-20, he hit 86 home runs in 552 games, slashing .261/.349/.466 with a 113 wRC+. He was never the most consistent producer, but at his best, he punished opposing pitchers with a dangerous combination of power and plate discipline. In his All-Star 2019 season, he hit 37 home runs and drew walks at a 12.1% pace. His 135 wRC+ put him among the top 10 qualified NL batters.

The 2025 season will be Bell’s age-32 campaign. He won’t turn 33 until August. It’s been a little while since we saw the best version of his bat over a prolonged period, but it’s not unreasonable to think he still has the upside to be a middle-of-the-order hitter for a team like the Nationals. If not, his floor is still that of a durable, league-average bat. The only season of his career in which he finished with a below-average wRC+ was the shortened 2020 campaign. He is also one of just 12 players who have qualified for the batting title in each of the past eight years. Bell has been on the IL just twice in his career; he missed 11 days with an oblique strain in 2018 and six days due to the COVID protocols in 2021. There is no reason to think he can’t stay healthy and provide league-average offense throughout the 2025 season. And if he can, he’ll be a two-win improvement over the designated hitters the Nationals ran out in 2024.

On top of that, the Nationals didn’t just sign Bell for his skills on the field. At the Winter Meetings, manager Dave Martinez said he wanted to bring “a veteran presence” to the roster to help with “chemistry and culture” in the clubhouse. Sure, that’s a platitude we’ve all heard countless times, but it makes sense for this team. Bell is the only player in Washington’s projected starting lineup who will be in his 30s as of Opening Day. He’s one of only five players on the 40-man roster with postseason experience. More specifically, he has a glowing reputation around the league as a great clubhouse guy, and that’s all the more meaningful considering how many clubhouses he’s been a part of. The last time Bell was in D.C., Martinez and POBO Mike Rizzo made clear how highly they valued his intangible qualities. Martinez described him as “an unbelievable human being.” Rizzo called him “one of the great make-up guys that we’ve ever brought in here.”

From an outside perspective, I can’t speak to how much extra value (if any) Bell might contribute with his work ethic, leadership, or affability. What I can say with confidence is that the Nationals clearly value those qualities, and that surely played a role in their decision to offer him a contract. A $6 million salary might seem like a slight overpay for a player who has been close to replacement level over the last two years. Perhaps it is. But it’s worth keeping in mind that Bell’s salary reflects more than just what the Nationals think he can provide on the field.

The Nationals have gotten better this winter. Lowe has been their only addition who moved the needle in any significant way, but Michael Soroka raises their ceiling, and Bell raises their floor. That said, none of these transactions suggest a team that’s diving into the deep end. Earlier in the offseason, various pundits suggested the Nationals as a fit for star slugger Pete Alonso, but adding Lowe and Bell takes them out of that conversation. Similarly, signing Soroka and re-signing Trevor Williams almost certainly means they won’t pursue a more meaningful upgrade for their rotation. The Nats could still pull off a big surprise and sign Alex Bregman – ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggested he was a “primary target” of theirs in November – but the fact that they made an offer to Gleyber Torres suggests they’re more interested in stopgap solutions than big splashes.

Thus, the Nationals remain unlikely to contend in 2025. Perhaps enough of their young players will break out and lead this team on a surprise Wild Card push, but I’d sooner bet that Washington will be out of contention by July. In other words, I’d sooner bet that Bell will be packing his bags ahead of the trade deadline for a fourth year in a row.