The New Toys
While talking with a fellow writer about the July 2nd signing period, he told me he was tired of two questions being asked. The one that I’m writing about today is one that reigns true about every player acquired and is simply “How close is he to the majors?”
The question and phrasing itself is innocent in nature, but the answer should be pretty easy to dictate, especially during this signing period. Most draftees are given two-to-four year windows by most fans depending on whether the player went to college or jumped straight from high school. These international signings include a lot of 16-year-olds, which makes them even younger than the high school seniors taken a month before.
Playing in Venezuela or the Dominican Republic leaves these players markedly less experienced than their domestic counterparts. Loss on them is the length and competitiveness that comes with a typical high school schedule. Take Miguel Angel Sano; most of his game experience is from showcases set-up by buscones. It’s going to take some time for the players to physically and mentally adjust to playing every day, even in the lower minors.
The cruel reality is that most of these players aren’t going to make the majors. If 60% of first round draft picks bust, and those players are presumably the best-of-the-best available amateurs who have fought through competition and difficult schedules, then what makes the international game any more likely for success? You can argue that these players are going to be the ones who need the most developmental time and work since they are so raw and fresh to the idea of organized baseball.
All of this is to say, we don’t know. For 16-year-old international signings, that’s always the answer.
Not only that, but if you go by a higher standard – meaning that most people, when they think of first round draft, they think of getting a good player – then my draft study found that the bust rate is about 55% for the Top 5 picks overall, about 80% for the Top 5-20 picks, and 90% for the 21-30 picks in the first round.
Good article on the difficulties that international prospects face when integrated into the major league baseball farm systems. There is just no easy comparison when American players have known certain baseball facts since T-ball that their international counterparts are learning for the first time at 16, 17, 18 years old in rookie ball.