The Other Outfield Corner

This morning we took a look at the right fielders set to hit the free agent market, so now we will shift to the opposite side and examine this year’s class of free agent left fielders. There are significantly more pure left fielders, or players more suited to play left field than the amount mentioned earlier in right field, but only a few truly stand out. Wily Mo Pena is the youngest of the group while Moises Alou, who has hinted at retirement, is the elder statesman. The fourteen players are listed below, with their 2008 games played, slash line, and WPA/LI:

Name                 Age     G            Slash  WPA/LI
Wily Mo Pena          27    64   .205/.243/.267   -1.56
Adam Dunn             29   158   .236/.386/.513    3.06
Juan Rivera           30    89   .246/.282/.438   -0.62
Milton Bradley        31   126   .321/.436/.563    3.33
Pat Burrell           32   157   .250/.367/.507    2.77
Gabe Kapler           33    96   .301/.340/.498    1.34
Emil Brown            34   117   .244/.297/.386   -0.94
Fernando Tatis        34    92   .297/.369/.484    0.77
Jay Payton            36   127   .243/.291/.346   -1.61
Raul Ibanez           37   162   .293/.358/.479    1.58
Manny Ramirez         37   153   .332/.430/.601    6.10
Garret Anderson       37   145   .253/.325/.433    0.29
Luis Gonzalez         41   136   .261/.336/.413   -0.32
Moises Alou           42    15   .347/.389/.388    0.26

Pena has a 5 mm club option for 2009 as well as a 2 mm player option, and Anderson has a 14 mm option with a 3 mm buyout. If the Angels decide to exercise the options of both Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero, they will be spending 29 million dollars next season on aging, declining outfielders. Keeping Vlad around makes sense given he can still rake, but Anderson has lost a ton of productivity with the bat and is, at best, an average fielder. Buying him out for 3 million makes sense if they can find a nice upgrade.

At just 29 years old, Dunn has established himself as a durable and consistently productive offensive threat. He hit 40 home runs on the nose for the fourth straight season, and now has 40+ dingers in five straight years. His low .262 BABIP should regress a bit, meaning his line is more likely to be in line with 2007’s productivity. He and Burrell are three true outcome players, with Burrell being three years his elder. Both should land big contracts. From 2004-2008, Burrell’s OPS has ranged from .821-.902, with the lowest coming in that injury-plagued 2004 season. He and Dunn may be terrible defensively but put them in the DH spot and 30+ home runs with an OPS above .850 ain’t too shabby.

Milton Bradley served primarily as a DH in 2008, and despite an injury, was absolutely on fire, producing a .999 OPS. Unfortunately, this was largely built upon an unsustainably high .396 BABIP which is sure to regress. He has talent, as has always been the case, but not this much talent. He could find himself in the outfield of another team, but he seemed to fit in perfectly with the Rangers. Gabe Kapler is just 33 years old but feels like a 40-year old given the crazy turns his career has taken. In 96 games was a -2 in LF despite being +7 in CF, and put together an .838 OPS.

Fernando Tatis wanted to get back to the major leagues in order to earn enough money to build a church in his hometown. Not only did he earn the amount he desired, but he proved he could still produce at the highest level, smacking 11 home runs with an .853 OPS in under 100 games of work. He was also +3 in the field in left field. Jay Payton, on the other hand, should not be given a job this offseason. The 36-yr old has seen a decline in OPS of .749 to .637 from 2005-2008, decreasing each season. He is +6 in the field, but giving players like he and Kevin Millar significant playing time is exactly why the Baltimore Orioles have not been able to compete recently.

This brings us to our interesting 37-yr olds: Raul Ibanez and Manny Ramirez. Somehow, Ibanez has been around since 1996, producing quite nicely offensively, without becoming anywhere near a household name. He may be a horrid defender in recent years, but his offense has been consistent with OBP/SLG tandems in the last three years of: .358/.479, .351/.480, .353/.516. Manny, on the other hand, was worth over six wins above average this year and continued to show why he is one of the greatest hitters of all time. Scott Boras mentioned he may be seeking an iconic contract, along the lines of 5/150, which is absurd, but he definitely has at least a couple extremely productive seasons left in the tank. If he stays in the National League his numbers will look even better.

He didn’t like the in-your-face style of baseball along the East Coast, so it is unlikely he signs with the Yankees or Mets, but perhaps the Angels cut bait with Garret Anderson and offer Manny a 4/100 deal like he was originally seeking. The Phillies will have an opening in left field as well, assuming they cannot resign Pat Burrell, so somebody like Tatis or Kapler may be interesting options to platoon with Geoff Jenkins or Matt Stairs. Regardless, Emil Brown and Jay Payton should be avoided, and it is somewhat likely that Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou will hang up their cleats.