The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats
Don’t hesitate to ignore all this introductory matter.
Over the last couple years, the author has published a periodic statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.
What follows represents an updated report for the 2017 college campaign.
As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.
To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.
*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.
Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The three conferences I’ve chosen here represent those most typically responsible for producing good major-league players. Later editions of this same report will contain more conferences.
*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.
There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current through the Tuesday’s games.
ACC
Top Batter
Sam Fragale, 1B, Virginia Tech (RS-Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Sam Fragale, 1B, Virginia Tech (RS-Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Robbie Coman, C, Virginia (Grad!)
Top Pitcher
Ryley Gilliam, RHP, Clemson (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, No. Carolina (Jr)
Top Starter
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, No. Carolina (Jr)
Leaderboards
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Fragale | Virginia Tech | RS-Jr | 1B | 39 | 17.9% | .647 | .435 | 17.1% | .251 | .337 | 134 |
| Kel Johnson | Georgia Tech | Jr | 1B | 37 | 13.5% | .576 | .250 | 15.4% | .235 | .331 | 128 |
| Adam Haseley | Virginia | So | OF | 39 | 7.7% | .469 | .400 | 13.1% | .218 | .336 | 127 |
| Brendan McKay | Louisville | Jr | 1B | 31 | 6.5% | .476 | .556 | 13.1% | .210 | .340 | 125 |
| Robbie Coman | Virginia | Grad! | C | 35 | 0.0% | .367 | .379 | 10.5% | .197 | .335 | 122 |
| Stuart Fairchild | Wake Forest | Jr | CF | 42 | 14.3% | .417 | .259 | 15.6% | .212 | .331 | 119 |
| Jon. Pryor | Wake Forest | Sr | COF | 42 | 11.9% | .308 | .531 | 14.7% | .191 | .341 | 116 |
| Drew Ellis | Louisville | Jr | 3B/1B | 31 | 3.2% | .333 | .263 | 12.0% | .188 | .332 | 116 |
| Gavin Sheets | Wake Forest | Jr | 1B | 40 | 10.0% | .314 | .367 | 14.0% | .191 | .335 | 115 |
| Pavin Smith | Virginia | Jr | 1B | 38 | 2.6% | .265 | .323 | 11.2% | .181 | .333 | 115 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryley Gilliam | Clemson | So | RHP | 7.2 | 25 | 56.0% | 0.0% | 32.3% | 8.4% | 75 |
| J.B. Bukauskas | No. Carolina | Jr | RHP | 13.0 | 47 | 44.7% | 4.3% | 32.2% | 8.4% | 75 |
| Tyler Holton | Florida St. | So | LHP | 13.0 | 48 | 39.6% | 8.3% | 30.3% | 9.3% | 83 |
| Luca Dalatri | No. Carolina | Fr | RHP | 15.0 | 57 | 35.1% | 3.5% | 28.9% | 8.1% | 83 |
| Jacob Hennessy | Clemson | Fr | LHP | 8.2 | 34 | 41.2% | 5.9% | 29.5% | 9.0% | 84 |
| Charlie Barnes | Clemson | Jr | LHP | 12.1 | 49 | 34.7% | 2.0% | 28.3% | 7.9% | 84 |
| Andrew Karp | Florida St. | RS-So | RHP | 14.2 | 50 | 34.0% | 2.0% | 28.1% | 7.9% | 85 |
| Josh Hiatt | No. Carolina | RS-Fr | RHP | 5.0 | 21 | 47.6% | 9.5% | 29.3% | 9.6% | 86 |
| Brooks Crawford | Clemson | So | RHP | 3.1 | 14 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 28.2% | 8.9% | 87 |
| Michael McAvene | Louisville | Fr | RHP | 8.2 | 38 | 39.5% | 13.2% | 29.4% | 10.3% | 87 |
Notes
For the second straight week, UNC right-hander J.B. Bukauskas earns the distinction of top starter in the ACC. After striking out 10 of 23 batters in his debut (box), the junior recorded 11 strikeouts against 24 batters in his second start (box). In his first start, Bukauskas was hitting 96 mph on his fastball and complementing that pitch with an 85-87 mph slider, according to Baseball America’s Michael Lananna, who has no obvious reason to lie about such things.
Catcher Robbie Coman has returned to play for Virginia after missing last year due to a Tommy John procedure. He’s actually already graduated, earning a bachelor’s degree in economics this past spring. He’s also recorded roughly 35 plate appearances without striking out.
Top Batter
Jared Oliva, CF, Arizona (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Jared Oliva, CF, Arizona (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Jared Oliva, CF, Arizona (Jr)
Top Pitcher
Kris Bubic, LHP, Stanford (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Kris Bubic, LHP, Stanford (So)
Top Starter
Kris Bubic, LHP, Stanford (So)
Leaderboards
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Oliva | Arizona | Jr | CF | 38 | 7.9% | .429 | .467 | 13.3% | .176 | .348 | 127 |
| Lars Nootbaar | USC | So | OF | 37 | 18.9% | .500 | .471 | 17.5% | .188 | .348 | 125 |
| Sean Bouchard | UCLA | Jr | 1B | 30 | 23.3% | .522 | .533 | 18.9% | .180 | .349 | 121 |
| JJ Matijevic | Arizona | Jr | 1B/2B | 39 | 5.1% | .235 | .438 | 12.1% | .142 | .348 | 116 |
| Frankie Rios | USC | RS-Jr | SS | 36 | 16.7% | .300 | .375 | 16.7% | .152 | .345 | 112 |
| Nick Madrigal | Oregon St. | So | SS/2B | 35 | 0.0% | .167 | .333 | 10.5% | .129 | .344 | 112 |
| Shane Matheny | Wash. St. | Jr | 3B | 16 | 6.3% | .385 | .273 | 14.5% | .144 | .343 | 111 |
| Nick Quintana | Arizona | Fr | 3B | 39 | 12.8% | .200 | .577 | 15.2% | .136 | .352 | 111 |
| Cal Stevenson | Arizona | Jr | COF | 39 | 5.1% | .185 | .308 | 12.1% | .133 | .343 | 111 |
| Mitchell Morimoto | Arizona | Jr | COF | 38 | 10.5% | .188 | .519 | 14.3% | .133 | .350 | 110 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Bubic | Stanford | So | LHP | 12.2 | 46 | 45.7% | 8.7% | 32.0% | 9.8% | 76 |
| Griffin Canning | UCLA | Jr | RHP | 13.0 | 48 | 41.7% | 10.4% | 30.6% | 10.2% | 80 |
| Justin Hooper | UCLA | So | LHP | 10.2 | 39 | 41.0% | 7.7% | 29.5% | 9.6% | 82 |
| Jacob Rebar | Utah | Fr | LHP | 9.2 | 33 | 36.4% | 6.1% | 27.3% | 9.4% | 87 |
| Noah Bremer | Washington | Jr | RHP | 12.0 | 48 | 37.5% | 14.6% | 28.9% | 11.1% | 87 |
| Cameron Ming | Arizona | Jr | LHP | 7.2 | 27 | 37.0% | 3.7% | 26.9% | 9.2% | 88 |
| Scotty Sunitsch | Wash. St. | Jr | LHP | 5.1 | 22 | 40.9% | 13.6% | 27.3% | 10.5% | 90 |
| Landon Faulkner | Arizona | Jr | RHP | 4.2 | 21 | 38.1% | 9.5% | 26.5% | 10.0% | 91 |
| Eli Lingos | Arizona St. | Jr | LHP | 12.2 | 47 | 29.8% | 6.4% | 25.8% | 9.3% | 91 |
| Connor Zwetsch | Oregon | Sr | RHP | 4.0 | 12 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 25.8% | 9.4% | 91 |
Notes
Arizona junior Jared Oliva didn’t appear among Baseball America’s top-100 list of college draft prospects, but he has distinguished himself over the first two weeks of the season. While playing center field exclusively or something like exclusively, he’s recorded 15 extra bases and just three strikeouts — for a 5:1 ratio. As noted, the Pac-12 leader by that measure last season was USC catcher Jeremy Martinez, who produced a 3.3:1 ratio. Martinez proceeded to promptly dominate short-season pitchers after being selected by the Cardinals.
Top Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Greg Deichmann, COF, LSU (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)
Top Pitcher
Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Tyler Johnson, RHP, So. Carolina (Jr)
Top Starter
Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn (So)
Leaderboards
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Gutierrez | Texas A&M | Fr | C/2B | 20 | 25.0% | .846 | .600 | 18.6% | .223 | .363 | 126 |
| Greg Deichmann | LSU | Jr | COF | 37 | 13.5% | .500 | .273 | 15.4% | .212 | .356 | 124 |
| Brent Rooker | Miss. St. | RS-Jr | COF | 43 | 16.3% | .424 | .435 | 16.4% | .205 | .362 | 122 |
| Chandler Taylor | Alabama | So | COF | 35 | 28.6% | .517 | .200 | 21.0% | .212 | .354 | 115 |
| Kramer Robertson | LSU | Sr | SS | 37 | 10.8% | .290 | .519 | 14.3% | .176 | .364 | 114 |
| Jeff Moberg | Tennessee | RS-Sr | 2B | 33 | 18.2% | .357 | .550 | 17.1% | .184 | .364 | 114 |
| Grant Koch | Arkansas | So | C | 32 | 9.4% | .323 | .346 | 14.0% | .178 | .359 | 114 |
| Braden Shewmake | Texas A&M | Fr | 2B | 38 | 10.5% | .278 | .484 | 14.2% | .174 | .363 | 113 |
| Luke Alexander | Miss. St. | So | 2B/3B | 46 | 15.2% | .297 | .414 | 15.9% | .182 | .361 | 113 |
| Evan White | Kentucky | Jr | 1B | 13 | 7.7% | .500 | .750 | 14.9% | .176 | .363 | 113 |
| Name | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | Auburn | So | RHP | 10.0 | 38 | 50.0% | 2.6% | 34.5% | 7.4% | 75 |
| TJ Sikkema | Missouri | Fr | LHP | 12.1 | 44 | 43.2% | 4.5% | 32.7% | 7.7% | 81 |
| Tyler Johnson | So. Carolina | Jr | RHP | 4.1 | 17 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 32.5% | 7.7% | 81 |
| Alex Lange | LSU | Jr | RHP | 11.0 | 43 | 41.9% | 4.7% | 32.1% | 7.7% | 82 |
| Will Ethridge | Ole Miss | Fr | RHP | 6.0 | 23 | 52.2% | 8.7% | 32.5% | 8.5% | 83 |
| Dallas Woolfolk | Ole Miss | So | RHP | 6.1 | 20 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 31.4% | 7.6% | 84 |
| Brigham Hill | Texas A&M | Jr | RHP | 13.2 | 54 | 37.0% | 5.6% | 30.8% | 7.8% | 86 |
| Riley Self | Miss. St. | Fr | RHP | 9.1 | 32 | 40.6% | 3.1% | 30.6% | 7.6% | 86 |
| Wil Crowe | So. Carolina | Jr | RHP | 11.1 | 43 | 37.2% | 4.7% | 30.3% | 7.7% | 87 |
| Davis Vainer | Alabama | RS-Fr | RHP | 7.0 | 27 | 44.4% | 11.1% | 31.2% | 8.9% | 88 |
Notes
Auburn’s Casey Mize appears to have a special arm. Not only has he been sitting at 95-96 mph with his fastball — and even touching 100 at points — but the talent has translated into results, as well: over his first two starts, a total of 10.0 innings, Mize has struck out half the batters he’s faced while walking just one.
Junior right-hander Brigham Hill of Texas A&M possesses less arm speed than Mize, but he does sit in the low 90s and also feature an impressive changeup, video of which the author captured when he should have been doing basically anything else with his time.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Jeren Kendall’s strikeout rate scares me, he has 13 K’s in 45 PA’s (and only 4 BB). I think he’s overrated tools and all, did have a 2 homer game earlier this week.
And against weak competition too. I am a huge VU baseball fan but Kendall does not have a great approach at the plate and lacks elite contact skills. Incredible athlete with surprising power for a guy his size. But if he goes #1 overall then it must be a really weak draft.