The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats
Over the last couple years, the author has published a periodic statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.
What follows represents the most current such report for the 2017 college campaign.
As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.
To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.
*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.
Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in five different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The five conferences I’ve chosen here represent those most typically responsible for producing good major-league players.
*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.
There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are care of Baseball Cube and as current as Baseball Cube says they should be.
ACC
Top Batter
Adam Haseley, CF, Virginia (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Adam Haseley, CF, Virginia (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Adam Haseley, CF, Virginia (Jr)
Top Pitcher
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, North Carolina (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, North Carolina (Jr)
Top Starter
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, North Carolina (Jr)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Haseley | Virginia | Jr | CF | 141 | 7.8% | .308 | .402 | 10.9% | .222 | .326 | 142 |
| Sam Fragale | Virginia Tech | RS-Jr | 1B | 144 | 22.2% | .398 | .326 | 21.0% | .263 | .318 | 140 |
| Ryan Tufts | Virginia Tech | Sr | SS | 154 | 11.7% | .311 | .381 | 13.5% | .227 | .325 | 139 |
| Pavin Smith | Virginia | Jr | 1B | 141 | 2.1% | .283 | .270 | 6.9% | .211 | .312 | 138 |
| Joey Bart | Georgia Tech | So | C | 129 | 19.4% | .365 | .354 | 19.0% | .243 | .321 | 136 |
| Gavin Sheets | Wake Forest | Jr | 1B | 137 | 11.7% | .310 | .284 | 13.7% | .222 | .313 | 133 |
| Griffin Conine | Duke | So | COF | 142 | 14.1% | .297 | .337 | 15.3% | .217 | .319 | 131 |
| Tom Stoffel | Virginia Tech | RS-Jr | COF | 145 | 8.3% | .242 | .361 | 11.2% | .193 | .322 | 129 |
| Drew Ellis | Louisville | Jr | 3B/1B | 126 | 11.1% | .258 | .413 | 13.4% | .196 | .327 | 129 |
| Seth Beer | Clemson | So | COF | 82 | 9.8% | .327 | .209 | 13.3% | .208 | .309 | 127 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.B. Bukauskas | North Carolina | Jr | RHP | 47.0 | 175 | 39.9% | 6.3% | 34.8% | 8.1% | 61 |
| Brendan McKay | Louisville | Jr | LHP | 38.0 | 148 | 38.6% | 6.1% | 33.3% | 8.2% | 65 |
| Tyler Holton | Florida State | So | LHP | 42.0 | 157 | 37.0% | 7.0% | 32.4% | 8.6% | 69 |
| Graeme Stinson | Duke | Fr | LHP | 19.1 | 80 | 42.5% | 10.0% | 32.9% | 10.1% | 71 |
| Griffin Roberts | Wake Forest | So | RHP | 23.2 | 96 | 37.4% | 11.4% | 31.0% | 10.6% | 78 |
| Ryley Gilliam | Clemson | So | RHP | 11.0 | 42 | 42.5% | 9.4% | 29.7% | 9.9% | 79 |
| Tyler Jackson | Clemson | Grad! | RHP | 22.1 | 94 | 31.0% | 3.2% | 27.2% | 7.6% | 80 |
| Parker Dunshee | Wake Forest | Sr | RHP | 42.2 | 180 | 29.9% | 6.6% | 27.7% | 8.3% | 80 |
| Jacob Hennessy | Clemson | Fr | LHP | 16.0 | 64 | 34.4% | 6.3% | 27.9% | 9.0% | 81 |
| Will Zirzow | Florida State | RS-Jr | RHP | 25.0 | 101 | 32.5% | 8.9% | 28.3% | 9.6% | 82 |
Notes
Lead prospect Eric Longenhagen recently launched a campaign aimed at convincing the present author to attend this afternoon’s game between North Carolina and Boston College at the latter’s home park — with a view, in particular, to observing talented UNC right-hander J.B. Bukauskas. I, for my part, have resisted his rhetorical offensive.
The logic behind our respective arguments is summarized briefly in this exchange from FanGraphs’ Slack page:
Owing to the possibility of ice pellets — i.e. almost literally one of the plagues that Yahweh visited upon Egypt — I will not be attending. The point remains, however: in addition to exceptional physical tools, Bukauskas also possesses a strong statistical record. It’s possible he really will be selected first overall in the 2017 draft. It’s even more possible that I won’t have seen him pitch in person.
Top Batter
Garrett Benge, 3B, Oklahoma State (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Garrett Benge, 3B, Oklahoma State (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Garrett Benge, 3B, Oklahoma State (Jr)
Top Pitcher
Sean Wymer, RHP, Texas Christian (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Devon Perez, RHP Oklahoma (Jr)
Top Starter
Devon Perez, RHP Oklahoma (Jr)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Benge | Oklahoma St. | Jr | 3B | 131 | 11.5% | .283 | .333 | 13.6% | .196 | .325 | 133 |
| Hunter Hargrove | Texas Tech | Sr | 1B | 144 | 9.0% | .215 | .368 | 11.8% | .169 | .329 | 127 |
| Renae Martinez | Oklahoma | Sr | C | 101 | 5.0% | .211 | .317 | 10.0% | .160 | .323 | 124 |
| Kacy Clemens | Texas | Sr | 1B | 137 | 14.6% | .232 | .341 | 15.8% | .175 | .326 | 122 |
| Steele Walker | Oklahoma | So | OF | 135 | 14.8% | .223 | .388 | 15.9% | .171 | .331 | 122 |
| Quintin Crandall | Kansas State | RS-Sr | 3B | 113 | 11.5% | .232 | .220 | 13.9% | .171 | .314 | 119 |
| Jake Scudder | Kansas State | Sr | 1B | 124 | 14.5% | .221 | .284 | 15.8% | .168 | .320 | 117 |
| Quin Walbergh | Oklahoma | RS-So | COF | 54 | 18.5% | .295 | .344 | 18.5% | .169 | .325 | 116 |
| Richard Cunningham | Baylor | So | CF | 68 | 22.1% | .286 | .341 | 20.4% | .174 | .325 | 115 |
| Austin O’Brien | Oklahoma | Sr | 1B | 77 | 18.2% | .224 | .442 | 18.3% | .159 | .331 | 115 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Wymer | Texas Christian | So | RHP | 24.1 | 90 | 37.8% | 5.6% | 31.2% | 8.4% | 73 |
| Carson Teel | Oklahoma St. | So | LHP | 29.0 | 122 | 33.7% | 4.9% | 29.6% | 7.9% | 76 |
| Devon Perez | Oklahoma | Jr | RHP | 30.0 | 126 | 32.6% | 4.0% | 29.0% | 7.4% | 76 |
| Jake Irvin | Oklahoma | So | RHP | 31.0 | 122 | 34.4% | 6.6% | 30.1% | 8.5% | 76 |
| Brady Basso | Oklahoma St. | Fr | LHP | 12.0 | 51 | 41.1% | 7.8% | 30.4% | 9.5% | 78 |
| Austin Boyles | Texas Christian | RS-Fr | RHP | 9.1 | 36 | 44.8% | 5.6% | 30.1% | 9.2% | 78 |
| Vincenzo Aiello | Oklahoma | Grad! | RHP | 14.0 | 56 | 40.9% | 12.5% | 30.8% | 10.6% | 80 |
| Jackson Sigman | West Virginia | Sr | RHP | 20.1 | 88 | 35.3% | 9.1% | 29.7% | 9.7% | 80 |
| Morgan Cooper | Texas | RS-Jr | RHP | 43.2 | 173 | 32.4% | 9.8% | 29.6% | 9.9% | 81 |
| Nicholas Kennedy | Texas | So | LHP | 24.0 | 100 | 31.9% | 6.0% | 28.1% | 8.5% | 82 |
Notes
Not only isn’t junior third baseman Garrett Benge the most physically impressive position player on the Oklahoma State roster, he’s likely not even the most physically impressive Garrett. That distinction probably belongs to center fielder Garrett McCain, who’s an inch taller than Benge and whose body offers some projectability. Benge, meanwhile, appears maxed out phyisically. He also appears to exhibit some effort while making throws to first and, despite a pretty deep leg kick, fails to radiate a sense of total coordination in the lower half of his body while swinging.
An example of what I mean:
Whatever his limitations, however, Benge has also produced both (a) the best batting line in the Big 12 by the methodology used here and (b) definitely the best batting line among draft-eligible Big 12 players. Oklahoma’s Sheldon Neuse parlayed that distinction last year — albeit as a shortstop — into a second-round draft pick.
Top Batter
Keston Hiura, DH, UC Irvine (Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Keston Hiura, DH, UC Irvine (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Josh Rojas, 3B, Hawaii (Sr)
Top Pitcher
Spencer Howard, RHP, Cal Poly (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Brendan Hornung, RHP, Hawaii (Sr)
Top Starter
Brendan Hornung, RHP, Hawaii (Sr)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keston Hiura | UC Irvine | Jr | DH | 115 | 17.4% | .356 | .439 | 17.4% | .208 | .325 | 142 |
| Kevin Riley | Cal St. Northridge | RS-Jr | 1B | 125 | 16.0% | .278 | .318 | 16.4% | .181 | .314 | 128 |
| Josh Rojas | Hawaii | Sr | 3B | 115 | 6.1% | .187 | .298 | 9.9% | .141 | .312 | 122 |
| David Banuelos | Long Beach St. | Jr | C | 106 | 18.9% | .226 | .352 | 18.3% | .155 | .317 | 117 |
| Albee Weiss | Cal St. Northridge | Jr | C | 121 | 20.7% | .234 | .293 | 19.6% | .162 | .311 | 116 |
| Cameron Olson | UC Davis | Sr | 1B | 70 | 24.3% | .279 | .375 | 21.1% | .159 | .317 | 115 |
| Ryan Anderson | UC Davis | So | COF | 95 | 11.6% | .153 | .375 | 13.8% | .126 | .318 | 113 |
| Mikey Duarte | UC Irvine | RS-Sr | SS | 102 | 7.8% | .118 | .351 | 11.4% | .114 | .317 | 111 |
| Lucas Tancas | Long Beach St. | RS-Jr | COF | 98 | 15.3% | .161 | .362 | 16.1% | .129 | .317 | 111 |
| Kekai Rios | Hawaii | So | C | 111 | 9.0% | .112 | .372 | 11.9% | .112 | .319 | 110 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Howard | Cal Poly | So | RHP | 33.2 | 130 | 30.7% | 3.8% | 26.5% | 6.4% | 74 |
| Brendan Hornung | Hawaii | Sr | RHP | 53.2 | 217 | 25.9% | 1.8% | 24.1% | 4.7% | 76 |
| Connor Riley | Long Beach St. | Fr | RHP | 11.0 | 48 | 43.5% | 14.5% | 28.8% | 9.7% | 77 |
| Chris Rivera | Long Beach St. | So | RHP | 13.2 | 59 | 37.5% | 11.9% | 27.2% | 9.3% | 80 |
| Ryan Lillie | UC Riverside | Jr | RHP | 23.2 | 98 | 27.6% | 4.1% | 23.9% | 6.8% | 82 |
| Blake Workman | Cal St. Fullerton | Fr | RHP | 24.0 | 93 | 27.8% | 4.3% | 23.9% | 6.9% | 82 |
| Josh Advocate | Long Beach St. | RS-Sr | RHP | 18.1 | 70 | 28.5% | 2.9% | 23.6% | 6.7% | 83 |
| Erich Uelmen | Cal Poly | Jr | RHP | 45.1 | 186 | 24.2% | 5.4% | 22.7% | 6.8% | 85 |
| A.J. Jones | Long Beach St. | Jr | RHP | 19.0 | 79 | 28.0% | 6.4% | 23.6% | 7.7% | 85 |
| Alex Fagalde | UC Riverside | Sr | RHP | 36.0 | 141 | 24.2% | 4.3% | 22.3% | 6.5% | 85 |
Notes
A couple years ago, right-hander Thomas Eshelman — currently a member of the Phillies system — recorded a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 139:7 in 137.0 innings for Cal State Fullerton. In 53.2 innings this season, Hawaii right-hander Brendan Hornung is nearly on Eshelman’s pace, having produced a 56:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Prorated to Eshelman’s 137.0 innings, that’s 146 strikeouts and 10 walks. So, actually a greater differential.
Obviously, there are differences — most notably, that Hornung is a senior. He has decent velocity, though (a 91 mph fastball according to Stephen Tsai of the Honolulu Star-Advertiser), and a split-finger pitch.
The Pac-12 continues to provide an incomplete collection of conference numbers. It appears, from what numbers have been available, that Arizona junior Jared Oliva continues to possess one of the top batting lines in the conference while also serving as the team’s center fielder. Among pitchers, 6-foot-6 junior right-hander David Peterson of Oregon has recorded the top line, including a 66:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 46.1 innings.
Top Batter
Brent Rooker, 1B, Mississippi State (RS-Jr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Brent Rooker, 1B, Mississippi State (RS-Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Grant Koch, C, Arkansas (So)
Top Pitcher
Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Kyle Serrano, RHP, Tennessee (RS-Jr)
Top Starter
Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn (So)
Leaderboards
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | PA | K% | ISO | BABIP | xK% | xISO | xBABIP | MPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Rooker | Miss. St. | RS-Jr | 1B | 143 | 17.5% | .513 | .476 | 17.6% | .308 | .350 | 171 |
| Grant Koch | Arkansas | So | C | 131 | 12.2% | .319 | .303 | 14.0% | .217 | .330 | 134 |
| Jeren Kendall | Vanderbilt | Jr | CF | 146 | 21.9% | .331 | .361 | 20.8% | .227 | .337 | 131 |
| Greg Deichman | LSU | Jr | COF | 135 | 16.3% | .312 | .313 | 16.8% | .215 | .331 | 130 |
| Riles Mahan | Kentucky | Jr | 2B | 137 | 14.6% | .258 | .323 | 15.6% | .192 | .333 | 123 |
| Evan White | Kentucky | Jr | 1B | 76 | 15.8% | .286 | .449 | 16.8% | .184 | .341 | 122 |
| Carson Shaddy | Arkansas | RS-Jr | 2B | 120 | 25.8% | .302 | .400 | 23.2% | .206 | .340 | 121 |
| Braden Shewmake | Texas A&M | Fr | 2B | 140 | 10.0% | .194 | .386 | 12.4% | .164 | .340 | 120 |
| Kramer Robertson | LSU | Sr | SS | 141 | 9.9% | .203 | .337 | 12.3% | .168 | .334 | 120 |
| Luke Heyer | Kentucky | Jr | 3B | 45 | 20.0% | .395 | .346 | 18.9% | .192 | .334 | 119 |
| Player | School | Yr | Pos | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | xK% | xBB% | MPS- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | Auburn | So | RHP | 45.2 | 182 | 34.5% | 3.8% | 31.6% | 6.2% | 73 |
| Kyle Serrano | Tennessee | RS-Jr | RHP | 7.2 | 31 | 54.8% | 6.4% | 33.5% | 8.5% | 74 |
| Blaine Knight | Arkansas | So | RHP | 40.1 | 151 | 31.8% | 1.3% | 29.4% | 5.3% | 77 |
| T.J. Sikkema | Missouri | Fr | LHP | 38.0 | 140 | 35.0% | 5.7% | 31.4% | 7.4% | 77 |
| Logan Salow | Kentucky | Sr | LHP | 22.0 | 84 | 37.0% | 7.2% | 31.1% | 8.3% | 80 |
| Trevor Stephan | Arkansas | Jr | RHP | 37.0 | 148 | 33.9% | 6.8% | 30.7% | 7.9% | 80 |
| Will Ethridge | Mississippi | Fr | RHP | 25.2 | 103 | 35.9% | 7.8% | 31.2% | 8.4% | 80 |
| Konnor Pilkington | Miss. St. | So | LHP | 44.1 | 177 | 32.9% | 7.4% | 30.4% | 8.1% | 82 |
| Dallas Woolfolk | Mississippi | So | RHP | 21.2 | 74 | 33.6% | 2.7% | 29.0% | 7.0% | 82 |
| Alex Lange | LSU | Jr | RHP | 41.0 | 173 | 31.8% | 6.4% | 29.6% | 7.6% | 82 |
Notes
There’s nothing equivalent offensively in the SEC right now to Mississippi State junior Brent Rooker. He’s produced the highest regressed ISO in the conference by 81 points and the highest regressed BABIP by 13. The second-place batter in the SEC by definitely flawed MPS+ metric (Jeren Kendall) is actually closer to average than Rooker’s mark. He’s maintained a league-average strikeout rate at the same time.
The question of defense is an interesting one where Rooker is concerned. On the one hand, he’s more or less become Mississippi State’s starting first baseman. On the other hand, he’s exhibited signs of athleticism more commonly associated with more challenging positions. He’s hit three triples, for example, which is tied for second in the SEC. Plus he’s stolen 14 bases (in just 17 attempts), which leads the league.
Here’s Rooker’s most recent home run, a game-winner against Florida International:
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Having spent most of my life in MN and WI….I agree with your decision to avoid ice pellets…