The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

What follows does not constitute the most rigorous of statistical analyses. Rather, it’s designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have considerably more enthusiasm for than actual knowledge of the collegiate game — a shorthand means, that is, towards detecting which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

As in other editions of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles recently introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: KATOH+ for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and KATOH- (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each. Here are the types of player: top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. And here are the conferences: the Atlantic Coast (ACC), the Pacific 12 (Pac-12), and the Southeastern (SEC). As for why I’ve chosen those three conferences, it’s because they featured the most teams collectively included in D1 Baseball’s top-25 preseason rankings.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Chief among them: these numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent. That’s relevant because the three conferences here feature a plurality of college baseball’s best teams and yet few, if any, of them them have played a conference matchup. Which, that means (almost by definition) that most of the teams here have faced inferior competition.

Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. Note that xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively.

ACC
Top Batter
Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Starter
Benton Moss, RHP, N. Carolina (Sr)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Will Craig	Wake Forest	So	1B	115	9.6%	.375	.442	12.6%	.228	.347	149
2	David Thompson	Miami	Jr	3B	116	7.8%	.371	.338	11.4%	.227	.337	147
3	Matt Thaiss	Virgnia	So	C	94	6.4%	.329	.303	11.1%	.201	.334	136
4	DJ Stewart	Florida St.	Jr	LF	118	21.2%	.380	.333	20.3%	.232	.337	136
5	Nate Mondou	Wake Forest	So	2B	120	14.2%	.269	.395	15.6%	.187	.343	128

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Brendan McKay	Louisville	Fr	LHP	26.0	98	42.9%	9.2%	33.8%	9.2%	66
2	Sarkis Ohanian	Duke	Sr	RHP	18.0	68	38.2%	0.0%	29.5%	6.6%	70
3	Benton Moss	N. Carolina	Sr	RHP	21.7	93	36.6%	4.3%	29.9%	7.5%	72
4	Drew Harrington	Louisville	So	LHP	22.0	81	39.5%	7.4%	31.0%	8.6%	72
5	Kenny Koplove	Duke	Jr	RHP	13.7	59	42.4%	10.2%	30.8%	9.5%	74

Notes
Two Duke pitchers appear among the ACC’s top five here — and neither are very draftable junior right-hander Michael Matuella. Senior right-hander Sarkis Ohanian sat at 91-92 mph with his fastball during a recent appearance observed by Baseball America’s Hudson Belinsky. In addition to pitching in relief, junior Kenny Koplove is also the school’s starting shortstop.

***

Pac-12
Top Batter
KJ Harrison, 1B/C, Oregon St. (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Chris Paul, 1B, California (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Chris Keck, 3B, UCLA (Sr)

Top Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Starter
Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA (Fr)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	KJ Harrison	Oregon St.	Fr	1B/C	119	15.1%	.371	.405	15.4%	.222	.333	143
2	Chris Paul	California	Sr	1B	102	12.7%	.310	.379	13.9%	.190	.329	132
3	Chris Keck	UCLA	Sr	3B	103	12.6%	.318	.324	13.8%	.194	.325	131
4	Lucas Erceg	California	So	3B	104	8.7%	.261	.367	11.3%	.173	.329	129
5	Gabe Clark	Oregon St.	Jr	DH	89	15.7%	.352	.231	15.8%	.199	.318	128

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Ryan Burr	Arizona St.	Jr	RHP	16.2	73	45.2%	12.3%	33.4%	9.8%	70
2	David Berg	UCLA	Jr	RHP	22.2	91	35.2%	2.2%	29.1%	6.4%	73
3	Griffin Canning	UCLA	Fr	RHP	35.0	131	31.3%	3.1%	27.7%	6.2%	76
4	Matt Bower	Wash St	Jr	LHP	23.0	94	37.2%	11.7%	30.3%	9.7%	78
5	James Kaprielian	UCLA	Jr	RHP	38.0	150	30.7%	5.3%	27.6%	7.1%	79

Notes
UCLA freshman right-hander Griffin Canning hasn’t worked exclusively as a starter. Indeed, four of his nine appearances have been in a relief capacity. Still, he’s recorded the 15th-most innings among all Pac-12 pitchers — more, almost by definition, than roughly two-thirds of the conference’s regular starting pitchers. By both strikeout and walk rate, he’s the equal of teammate and Friday night starter James Kaprielian — notable, that, insofar as Kaprielian profiles as second-round talent in this year’s draft. He sits at 89-91 mph, according to a recent report by Baseball America’s Vince Lara-Cinisomo — with a hard curve, according Aaron Fitt of D1 Baseball.

***

SEC
Top Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Alex Bregman, Jr, LSU (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Ben Bowden, LHP, Vanderbilt (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Bobby Poyner, LHP, Florida (Sr)

Top Starter
Brady Bramlett, RHP, Ole Miss (So)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Harrison Bader	Florida	Jr	LF	103	15.5%	.380	.379	15.7%	.222	.336	138
2	Alex Bregman	LSU	Jr	SS	118	2.5%	.287	.284	7.1%	.193	.327	136
3	Jared Foster	LSU	Sr	2B/OF	79	13.9%	.377	.358	14.8%	.206	.334	132
4	Christin Stewart	Tennessee	Jr	LF	91	15.4%	.352	.327	15.6%	.206	.331	130
5	Mikey White	Alabama	Jr	SS	99	12.1%	.289	.451	13.6%	.187	.342	130

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Ben Bowden	Vanderbilt	So	LHP	16.2	66	37.9%	7.6%	29.7%	9.0%	78
2	Brady Bramlett	Ole Miss	So	RHP	35.0	137	30.7%	4.4%	27.8%	7.3%	79
3	Cole Lipscomb	Auburn	So	RHP	24.2	100	34.0%	7.0%	29.1%	8.6%	79
4	Alex Lange	LSU	Fr	RHP	38.0	142	31.7%	7.0%	28.5%	8.4%	80
5	Daniel Brown	Miss. St.	So	LHP	14.1	58	37.9%	8.6%	29.3%	9.3%	80

Notes
Senior Jared Foster appears to have played outfield exclusively over his first three seasons at Louisiana State. In recent weeks, however, he’s become the school’s starting second baseman. Undrafted after a junior year in which he slashed just .115/.194/.180 without a home run over roughly 70 plate appearances, Foster has likely become considerably more appealing to teams — while also having exhibited some defensive flexibility.