The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

What follows does not constitute the most rigorous of statistical analyses. Rather, it’s designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have considerably more enthusiasm for than actual knowledge of the collegiate game — a shorthand means, that is, towards detecting which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: KATOH+ for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and KATOH- (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each. Here are the types of player: top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. And here are the conferences: the Atlantic Coast (ACC), the Pacific 12 (Pac-12), and the Southeastern (SEC). As for why I’ve chosen those three conferences, it’s because they featured the most teams collectively included in D1 Baseball’s top-25 preseason rankings.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current as of Tuesday and may not include midweek games.

ACC
Top Batter
Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Starter
Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Will Craig	Wake Forest	So	1B	152	9.9%	.375	.422	12.3%	.243	.347	157
2	David Thompson	Miami	Jr	3B	149	8.7%	.313	.330	11.5%	.213	.336	143
3	Chris Shaw	Boston College	Jr	RF	131	16.8%	.369	.333	17.3%	.232	.336	142
4	Nate Mondou	Wake Forest	So	2B	158	13.3%	.297	.391	14.7%	.208	.343	139
5	DJ Stewart	Florida St.	Jr	LF	159	17.6%	.312	.347	17.9%	.216	.338	135
6	Logan Ratledge	NC State	Sr	2B	147	11.6%	.240	.414	13.6%	.179	.346	131
7	Matt Thaiss	Virginia	So	C	136	7.4%	.243	.309	10.8%	.179	.333	130
8	Brendon Hayden	Virginia Tech	Sr	1B/DH	156	16.0%	.260	.354	16.7%	.190	.339	128
9	Alex Perez	Virginia Tech	Sr	2B	159	11.3%	.215	.389	13.3%	.170	.343	126
10	Kel Johnson	Georgia Tech	Fr	RF	106	27.4%	.326	.492	24.2%	.203	.350	126

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Sarkis Ohanian	Duke	Sr	RHP	27.2	109	37.6%	1.8%	31.0%	6.4%	65
2	Drew Harrington	Louisville	So	LHP	27.1	100	40.0%	8.0%	32.1%	8.8%	68
3	Brendan McKay	Louisville	Fr	LHP	40.0	152	36.2%	8.6%	31.3%	9.0%	71
4	Matt Pidich	Pittsburgh	So	RHP	15.2	61	37.7%	8.2%	28.7%	9.0%	78
5	Kenny Koplove	Duke	Jr	RHP	14.1	64	39.1%	12.5%	29.5%	10.2%	79
6	Nathan Kirby	Virginia	Jr	LHP	51.0	218	31.7%	10.6%	29.0%	10.0%	79
7	Billy Strode	Florida St.	Sr	LHP	14.2	66	36.4%	10.6%	28.3%	9.7%	80
8	Jesse Adams	Boston College	Jr	LHP	29.1	124	31.5%	8.9%	27.6%	9.1%	81
9	Tommy DeJuneas	NC State	Fr	RHP	24.1	95	33.7%	10.5%	28.2%	9.8%	81
10	T.J. Zeuch	Pittsburgh	Fr	RHP	46.1	197	26.9%	5.1%	25.3%	7.1%	81

Notes
Boston College junior outfielder Chris Shaw appeared among Kiley McDaniel’s way-too-early top-51 draft prospects back in September. What he didn’t appear among — over the first two months of the collegiate season, at least — was the ACC batting leaderboards by the methodology utilized here by the author. He homered three times this past Sunday, however, in a 10-7 win for BC at Wake Forest and has now recorded an overall line probably more representative of his skills.

***

Pac-12
Top Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Starter
James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Scott Kingery	Arizona	Jr	2B	149	6.7%	.250	.492	9.4%	.178	.340	141
2	KJ Harrison	Oregon St.	Fr	1B/C	143	16.8%	.303	.400	16.6%	.200	.329	135
3	Lucas Erceg	California	So	3B	133	9.0%	.277	.337	11.2%	.186	.322	135
4	Chris Keck	UCLA	Sr	3B	130	10.8%	.262	.315	12.4%	.178	.319	129
5	Brett Cumberland	California	Fr	C	130	15.4%	.274	.310	15.6%	.183	.319	127
6	Chris Paul	California	Sr	1B	130	14.6%	.245	.384	15.1%	.171	.327	126
7	Gabe Clark	Oregon St.	Jr	DH	109	15.6%	.292	.254	15.7%	.184	.314	125
8	Kevin Kramer	UCLA	Jr	SS	141	12.1%	.202	.429	13.2%	.154	.332	124
9	Bobby Dalbec	Arizona	So	3B	146	21.9%	.252	.395	20.2%	.178	.329	122
10	Braden Bishop	Washington	Jr	CF	116	12.1%	.211	.378	13.4%	.154	.325	121

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Ryan Burr	Arizona St.	Jr	RHP	23.2	103	43.7%	11.7%	34.2%	10.0%	66
2	David Berg	UCLA	Jr	RHP	29.2	112	35.7%	2.7%	29.7%	6.5%	68
3	Grant Dyer	UCLA	So	RHP	28.0	101	35.6%	5.9%	29.3%	7.9%	73
4	James Kaprielian	UCLA	Jr	RHP	51.2	202	31.7%	5.9%	28.7%	7.4%	73
5	Griffin Canning	UCLA	Fr	RHP	44.1	167	28.7%	2.4%	26.2%	5.8%	75
6	Garrett Cleavinger	Oregon	Jr	LHP	17.2	71	40.8%	14.1%	30.6%	10.5%	76
7	Dylan Nelson	California	Sr	RHP	16.2	64	35.9%	7.8%	27.7%	8.7%	79
8	Andrew Moore	Oregon St.	Jr	RHP	60.2	223	24.7%	3.1%	23.6%	5.7%	82
9	Bernardo Flores	USC	So	LHP	26.2	112	29.5%	7.1%	25.9%	8.3%	83
10	Andrew Shaps	Arizona St.	Fr	LHP	2.1	11	63.6%	0.0%	26.1%	8.5%	83

Notes
Arizona junior second baseman Scott Kingery‘s 2015 season was celebrated briefly in last week’s edition of this same thing. What he proceeded to do over the weekend, however, is actually cause somehow for even greater celebration. Regard, his line in three games against USC: 15 PA, 1 K, 20 TB, 10/14 BABIP. That ratio of strikeouts to total bases is particularly notable. The lowest such ratio in the majors last year, for example, was Victor Martinez’s mark of 42:317 (or 13.2% if dividing the former by the latter). Kingery’s figure this year is 10:96 (or, alternately, 10.4%). New to the batting leaderboard this week is Washington junior center fielder Braden Bishop. Bishop was featured within McDaniel’s September port regarding possible draft prospects, as well. He appears to possess a promising combination of offensive and defensive skill.

***

SEC
Top Batter
Alex Bregman, SS, LSU (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Alex Bregman, SS, LSU (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Alex Bregman, SS, LSU (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Alden Cartwright, RHP, LSU (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Andrew Lee, RHP, Tennessee (Jr)

Top Starter
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Alex Bregman	LSU	Jr	SS	162	3.7%	.289	.299	7.1%	.206	.328	142
2	Harrison Bader	Florida	Jr	LF	139	15.8%	.346	.346	16.0%	.225	.334	138
3	Christin Stewart	Tennessee	Jr	LF	123	17.1%	.371	.324	16.8%	.229	.332	138
4	Andrew Benintendi	Arkansas	So	CF	143	13.3%	.325	.322	14.2%	.217	.331	137
5	JJ Schwarz	Florida	Fr	DH/C	143	16.1%	.312	.302	16.2%	.212	.329	131
6	Kyle Martin	So. Carolina	Sr	1B	149	7.4%	.240	.361	10.0%	.180	.336	131
7	Jared Foster	LSU	Sr	2B/COF	118	14.4%	.314	.309	15.1%	.204	.330	130
8	Josh Tobias	Florida	Sr	3B	110	10.9%	.265	.417	12.8%	.182	.340	129
9	Dansby Swanson	Vanderbilt	Jr	SS	165	13.3%	.241	.411	14.1%	.184	.343	128
10	Mikey White	Alabama	Jr	SS	142	18.3%	.259	.433	17.7%	.188	.344	125

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Alden Cartwright	LSU	So	RHP	12.1	55	38.2%	5.5%	28.8%	8.6%	78
2	Andrew Lee	Tennessee	Jr	RHP	14.1	45	40.0%	4.4%	28.7%	8.5%	78
3	Ben Bowden	Vanderbilt	So	LHP	20.1	80	35.0%	7.5%	28.6%	8.9%	79
4	Carson Fulmer	Vanderbilt	Jr	RHP	48.0	201	33.3%	11.4%	30.2%	10.6%	79
5	Bobby Poyner	Florida	Sr	LHP	30.0	113	28.3%	0.9%	25.7%	6.1%	79
6	Mark Ecker	Texas A&M	So	RHP	14.1	53	37.7%	7.5%	28.4%	9.1%	80
7	Brady Bramlett	Ole Miss	So	RHP	45.2	188	28.2%	5.3%	26.3%	7.4%	81
8	Robert Tyler	Georgia	So	RHP	14.0	60	36.7%	10.0%	28.4%	9.7%	81
9	A.J. Minter	Texas A&M	Jr	LHP	21.0	89	32.6%	9.0%	27.7%	9.4%	83
10	Cole Lipscomb	Auburn	So	RHP	37.1	151	29.1%	7.3%	26.7%	8.5%	83

Notes
In terms of statistical indicators, the best sort a collegiate batter can possess is to have as many home runs and as few strikeouts as possible. LSU shortstop Alex Bregman has essentially accomplished this dual feat. He’s produced the fifth-highest home-run total in the SEC (7) and the lowest strikeout rate (3.7%). He’s draft-eligible in all the possible meanings of that hyphenated expression. His teammate, right-handed sophomore Alden Cartwright, has hovered towards the top of the SEC pitching leaderboard. After another impressive week, he now sits at the top of it.