The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

Since the middle of March, the author has published each week a statistical report designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have enthusiasm for collegiate baseball, if not actually expert knowledge of it. These posts have served as a means by which one might broadly detect which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

What follows is another edition of that same thing, updated through Thursday.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in six different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively.

ACC
Top Batter
Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Starter
T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh (So)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Will Craig	Wake Forest	So	1B	189	8.5%	.362	.389	10.8%	.248	.335	162
2	David Thompson	Miami	Jr	3B	189	10.1%	.295	.331	12.0%	.213	.326	144
3	Chris Shaw	Boston College	Jr	RF	139	15.8%	.347	.337	16.5%	.223	.327	141
4	Nate Mondou	Wake Forest	So	2B	198	12.6%	.274	.378	13.9%	.204	.333	140
5	DJ Stewart	Florida St.	Jr	LF	194	17.5%	.287	.344	17.6%	.210	.328	135
6	Logan Ratledge	NC State	Sr	2B	183	10.9%	.232	.406	12.7%	.179	.337	134
7	Alex Perez	Virginia Tech	Sr	2B	195	11.8%	.231	.385	13.3%	.181	.334	133
8	Matt Thaiss	Virginia	So	C	175	7.4%	.229	.320	10.1%	.177	.325	132
9	Brendon Hayden	Virginia Tech	Sr	1B	188	17.6%	.258	.325	17.7%	.194	.325	128
10	Chris Okey	Clemson	So	C	180	16.7%	.236	.368	17.0%	.181	.331	126

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Sarkis Ohanian	Duke	Sr	RHP	29.0	110	39.1%	2.7%	32.0%	7.0%	63
2	Drew Harrington	Louisville	So	LHP	30.0	116	36.2%	7.8%	30.5%	8.9%	72
3	Brendan McKay	Louisville	Fr	LHP	53.0	196	34.2%	9.2%	30.7%	9.4%	73
4	Kenny Koplove	Duke	Jr	RHP	16.1	73	41.1%	12.3%	31.2%	10.5%	74
5	Billy Strode	Florida St.	Sr	LHP	20.2	86	37.2%	10.5%	29.9%	10.0%	77
6	Matt Pidich	Pittsburgh	So	RHP	15.2	60	38.3%	8.3%	29.0%	9.4%	77
7	Jesse Adams	Boston College	Jr	LHP	40.0	159	32.7%	10.1%	29.1%	9.9%	78
8	Michael Mediavilla	Miami	Fr	LHP	22.0	85	35.3%	11.8%	28.8%	10.4%	81
9	Trent Thornton	UNC	Jr	RHP	45.1	180	32.2%	12.2%	29.1%	11.0%	81
10	T.J. Zeuch	Pittsburgh	So	RHP	61.0	267	26.2%	6.0%	25.1%	7.4%	82

Notes
Among the batting leaders within the six conferences considered here, Wake Forest sophomore first baseman Will Craig possesses the largest lead over his respective conference’s second-place batter. Nor is it difficult to identify his strengths: over a sample of nearly 200 plate appearances, Craig has recorded nearly as many home runs (12) as strikeouts (16). Stated somewhat differently: Craig has produced the highest regressed isolated-power figure (.248) and also the seventh-lowest regressed strikeout rate (10.8%) in the ACC.

***

Big 10
Top Batter
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Maryland (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Maryland (So)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Maryland (So)

Top Pitcher
Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (Jr)

Top Starter
Mike Shawaryn, RHP, Maryland (So)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Brandon Lowe	Maryland	So	2B	193	9.3%	.275	.338	10.8%	.197	.321	141
2	Kyle Ruchim	Northwestern	Sr	CF	162	7.4%	.247	.362	9.6%	.177	.324	136
3	David Kerian	Illinois	Sr	1B	162	12.3%	.241	.352	13.2%	.174	.323	130
4	Carmen Benedetti	Michigan	So	1B/LF	168	9.5%	.185	.393	11.1%	.148	.328	125
5	Kevin Martir	Maryland	Jr	C	169	10.7%	.191	.370	12.0%	.151	.325	124
6	Jason Goldstein	Illinois	Jr	C	154	11.0%	.214	.307	12.3%	.160	.317	123
7	Reid Roper	Illinois	Sr	2B	179	11.2%	.197	.333	12.3%	.155	.320	123
8	Mark Weist	Michigan St.	Sr	3B	177	10.2%	.184	.345	11.5%	.148	.322	122
9	Troy Montgomery	Ohio St.	So	CF	166	11.4%	.187	.356	12.6%	.149	.323	121
10	Pat Porter	Ohio St.	Sr	RF	163	14.7%	.206	.349	15.0%	.157	.322	121

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Tyler Jay	Illinois	Jr	LHP	40.0	135	34.1%	2.2%	28.6%	5.9%	65
2	Mike Shawaryn	Maryland	So	RHP	70.0	261	31.4%	4.2%	28.6%	6.0%	65
3	Kevin Duchene	Illinois	Jr	LHP	55.0	215	28.8%	2.3%	26.2%	5.2%	69
4	Josh Roeder	Nebraska	Sr	RHP	16.0	58	39.7%	3.4%	27.9%	7.5%	71
5	Ryan Halstead	Indiana	Sr	RHP	25.2	105	31.4%	3.8%	26.1%	6.9%	74
6	Luke Harrison	Indiana	Sr	RHP	31.2	122	31.1%	5.7%	26.4%	7.5%	75
7	Thomas Belcher	Indiana	So	RHP	34.2	133	25.6%	1.5%	23.0%	5.6%	79
8	Austin Foote	Indiana	Fr	LHP	12.0	59	35.6%	10.2%	26.1%	9.2%	80
9	Alex Robinson	Maryland	Jr	LHP	18.0	65	33.8%	10.8%	25.7%	9.4%	81
10	Carmen Benedetti	Michigan	So	LHP	11.1	46	39.1%	15.2%	26.5%	10.2%	82

Notes
Maryland sophomore right-hander Mike Shawaryn appeared among the Big 10’s top-three pitchers in last week’s edition of this same exercise. That post appeared on a Thursday. The next day, on Friday, Shawaryn started at home against Cal State Fullerton and recorded a career-high 13 strikeouts. His overall line (box): 8.0 IP, 28 TBF, 13 K, 0 BB, 0 HR, 4 H. Sharwyn threw a fastball at 87-90 mph and impressive slider at 77-79 mph during a recent start, according to Ryan Sullivan of NatsGM.

***

Big West
Top Batter
Nick Lynch, 1B, UC Davis (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Nick Lynch, 1B, UC Davis (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Keston Hiura, CF, UC Irvine (Fr)

Top Pitcher
Danny Zandona, RHP, Cal Poly (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Danny Zandona, RHP, Cal Poly (Sr)

Top Starter
Kyle Friedrichs, RHP, Long Beach St. (Sr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Nick Lynch	UC Davis	Sr	1B	161	11.8%	.215	.407	13.6%	.151	.341	134
2	Brian Mundell	Cal Poly	Jr	DH	120	10.8%	.220	.329	13.4%	.144	.331	128
3	Keston Hiura	UC Irvine	Fr	CF	158	13.3%	.185	.380	14.7%	.136	.337	125
4	Andrew Martinez	UC Irvine	So	DH	88	30.7%	.368	.268	25.7%	.185	.326	124
5	Izaak Silva	UC Davis	Sr	C	157	13.4%	.157	.432	14.8%	.123	.344	123
6	Peter Van Gansen	Cal Poly	Jr	SS	168	4.2%	.120	.355	7.9%	.106	.334	122
7	Cameron Newell	Santa Barbara	Sr	LF	160	11.3%	.149	.392	13.2%	.119	.339	122
8	Paddy O’Brien	Santa Barbara	So	C	20	10.0%	.500	.571	16.3%	.134	.335	122
9	Vince Fernandez	Riverside	So	LF	163	27.6%	.218	.427	25.1%	.153	.343	119
10	Luke Swenson	Santa Barbara	Sr	RF	130	7.7%	.125	.382	11.1%	.106	.336	119

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	NAME	School	YR	POS	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Danny Zandona	Cal Poly	Sr	RHP	32.0	130	39.2%	8.5%	32.3%	8.1%	66
2	Kyle Friedrichs	Long Beach St.	Sr	RHP	66.2	252	31.3%	2.4%	28.7%	4.5%	66
3	Tyler Peitzmeier	Fullerton	Sr	LHP	24.1	104	31.7%	4.8%	26.8%	6.6%	77
4	Thomas Eshelman	Fullerton	Jr	RHP	73.1	283	23.3%	1.8%	22.5%	4.0%	81
5	Zach Stone	UC Davis	So	RHP	26.2	102	28.4%	3.9%	24.7%	6.3%	81
6	Dillon Tate	Santa Barbara	Jr	RHP	67.2	260	27.3%	6.9%	25.6%	7.3%	81
7	Quintin Torres-Costa	Hawaii	Fr	LHP	27.1	123	31.7%	12.2%	27.2%	9.6%	83
8	Rayne Raven	CSUN	Jr	RHP	59.0	240	25.4%	6.3%	24.1%	6.9%	84
9	Angel Landazuri	Riverside	So	RHP	45.2	184	24.5%	4.3%	23.1%	6.0%	85
10	Shane Bieber	Santa Barbara	So	RHP	72.1	295	21.4%	2.0%	21.0%	4.1%	85

Notes
Santa Barbara junior right-hander Dillon Tate appears second on the recently published April edition of Kiley McDaniel’s draft rankings — on the strength of a mid-90s fastball, plus slider, and reasonable command of both. Notably, Long Beach State senior right-hander Kyle Friedrichs outdueled Tate when the two faced each other at the end of March. Tate recorded 10 strikeouts and one walk over 9.0 innings; Friedrichs, 13 strikeouts and zero walks, also in a complete game (box). It’s difficult to find a report on Friedrichs’ stuff. Even he himself isn’t particularly impressed by his own physical tools. “I’m not a prospect,” he recently stated in an interview with the school’s daily paper.

***

Missouri Valley
Top Batter
Paul DeJong, 2B/3B/C, Illinois St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Paul DeJong, 2B/3B/C, Illinois St. (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Paul DeJong, 2B/3B/C, Illinois St. (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Jeff Degano, LHP, Indiana St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Jeff Degano, LHP, Indiana St. (Jr)

Top Starter
Jeff Degano, LHP, Indiana St. (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Paul DeJong	Illinois St.	Jr	2B/3B/C	180	18.9%	.336	.417	18.7%	.230	.342	146
2	Kevin Kaczmarski	Evansville	Sr	CF	142	9.9%	.233	.455	12.3%	.172	.344	133
3	Ryan Tinkham	Wichita St.	Jr	1B	172	15.7%	.232	.413	16.3%	.177	.341	129
4	Spencer Gaa	Bradley	So	3B	75	8.0%	.254	.458	12.5%	.162	.338	127
5	Jacob Hayes	Indiana St.	Sr	RF	161	23.6%	.295	.333	22.1%	.205	.330	127
6	Drew Turbin	Dallas Baptist	Sr	2B	187	17.1%	.205	.438	17.4%	.165	.345	124
7	Chris Godinez	Bradley	Jr	2B	149	14.1%	.236	.302	15.3%	.175	.326	124
8	Andy Young	Indiana St.	Jr	3B	160	11.9%	.200	.347	13.6%	.159	.332	123
9	Isaac Smith	Bradley	Sr	CF	137	11.7%	.175	.407	13.7%	.145	.338	119
10	Mason Snyder	Illinois St.	Jr	1B	167	15.0%	.195	.343	15.8%	.158	.331	119

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Jeff Degano	Indiana St.	Jr	LHP	68.2	275	30.9%	7.6%	28.5%	8.8%	70
2	Matt Hall	Missouri St.	Jr	LHP	71.0	289	31.1%	8.3%	28.8%	9.1%	70
3	Brandon Koch	Dallas Baptist	Jr	RHP	22.1	88	40.9%	18.2%	31.2%	13.2%	74
4	Chance Adams	Dallas Baptist	Jr	RHP	32.1	125	30.4%	7.2%	26.3%	9.1%	76
5	Brent Jurceka	Evansville	Jr	RHP	20.0	83	32.5%	7.2%	26.4%	9.5%	77
6	Jon Harris	Missouri St.	Jr	RHP	59.0	248	28.6%	9.7%	26.5%	10.0%	78
7	Bryan Young	Missouri St.	So	RHP	24.0	96	29.2%	6.3%	24.9%	9.0%	80
8	John Hayes	Wichita St.	Jr	RHP	29.0	121	28.1%	9.1%	24.8%	9.9%	82
9	Sam Tewes	Wichita St.	So	RHP	22.1	90	24.4%	3.3%	22.1%	8.1%	85
10	Isaac Anderson	Wichita St.	Jr	RHP	46.0	190	24.7%	8.4%	23.2%	9.4%	85

Notes
Given his relative lack of expertise, the author isn’t in a position really to endorse a particular player as one who might provide an unexpectedly high return relative to his draft slot. Illinois State junior Paul DeJong’s statistical profile, however — in conjunction with his defensive flexibility — is certainly promising. A thing of note with regard to DeJong: he hit 20 home runs this past summer in the collegiate wood-bat Northwoods League, leading the league by that measure.

***

Pac-12
Top Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Starter
James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Scott Kingery	Arizona	Jr	2B	177	5.6%	.220	.449	8.4%	.169	.339	139
2	Bobby Dalbec	Arizona	So	3B	172	22.1%	.324	.402	20.6%	.219	.333	138
3	Lucas Erceg	California	So	3B	164	10.4%	.250	.323	12.0%	.181	.322	132
4	KJ Harrison	Oregon St.	Fr	1B/C	169	19.5%	.261	.400	18.7%	.187	.332	128
5	Chris Paul	California	Sr	1B	152	16.4%	.246	.364	16.4%	.177	.327	126
6	Bobby Stahel	USC	Jr	LF	172	8.7%	.172	.437	10.7%	.144	.337	125
7	Chris Keck	UCLA	Sr	3B	165	10.3%	.210	.325	11.9%	.162	.322	125
8	Jeff Hendrix	Oregon St.	Jr	CF	176	13.1%	.201	.376	13.9%	.159	.329	124
9	Brett Cumberland	California	Fr	C	156	16.0%	.233	.322	16.1%	.171	.322	122
10	Gabe Clark	Oregon St.	Jr	DH	123	18.7%	.257	.260	17.9%	.175	.316	119

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Ryan Burr	Arizona St.	Jr	RHP	29.1	132	43.2%	11.4%	35.1%	10.1%	62
2	Garrett Cleavinger	Oregon	Jr	LHP	21.2	87	43.7%	16.1%	33.1%	11.4%	71
3	David Berg	UCLA	Sr	RHP	37.2	142	31.0%	2.1%	27.3%	5.9%	72
4	James Kaprielian	UCLA	Jr	RHP	63.2	252	32.1%	7.5%	29.5%	8.1%	72
5	Grant Dyer	UCLA	So	RHP	34.0	123	34.1%	6.5%	29.0%	8.0%	73
6	Griffin Canning	UCLA	Fr	RHP	54.2	208	27.4%	2.4%	25.5%	5.4%	75
7	Dylan Nelson	California	Sr	RHP	19.0	80	35.0%	7.5%	28.0%	8.6%	77
8	Andrew Shaps	Arizona St.	Fr	LHP	3.0	14	64.3%	0.0%	27.3%	8.4%	78
9	Brandon Choate	Washington	Sr	RHP	44.0	172	30.2%	9.9%	27.2%	9.5%	81
10	Bernardo Flores	USC	So	LHP	34.1	142	28.2%	6.3%	25.4%	7.8%	82

Notes
The University of Arizona would appear to possess currently one of college baseball’s most impressive collection of infielders. Junior shortstop Kevin Newman, who appears eighth on McDaniel’s most recent draft-rankings post, has recorded the 15th-best offensive line in the Pac-12; junior second baseman Scott Kingery and sophomore third baseman Bobby Dalbec, the top-two offensives lines, respectively.

***

SEC
Top Batter
Andrew Benintendi, CF, Arkansas (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Andrew Benintendi, CF, Arkansas (So)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Andrew Benintendi, CF, Arkansas (So)

Top Pitcher
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top Starter
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Andrew Benintendi	Arkansas	So	CF	184	13.0%	.363	.357	14.0%	.250	.336	152
2	Christin Stewart	Tennessee	Jr	LF	158	15.8%	.368	.315	16.1%	.243	.330	144
3	Harrison Bader	Florida	Jr	LF	177	15.3%	.333	.333	15.6%	.232	.332	142
4	JJ Schwarz	Florida	Fr	DH/C	177	15.8%	.346	.287	16.1%	.239	.326	141
5	Alex Bregman	LSU	Jr	SS	196	5.6%	.273	.306	8.2%	.206	.328	141
6	Logan Taylor	Texas A&M	Jr	LF	153	13.1%	.293	.388	14.1%	.206	.339	136
7	Dansby Swanson	Vanderbilt	Jr	SS	203	15.3%	.274	.392	15.6%	.208	.341	136
8	Kyle Martin	So. Carolina	Sr	1B	187	10.7%	.252	.352	12.2%	.193	.335	133
9	Jared Foster	LSU	Sr	COF/2B	147	15.0%	.275	.307	15.5%	.196	.329	127
10	Kade Scivicque	LSU	Sr	C	152	6.6%	.201	.394	9.5%	.163	.339	127

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Carson Fulmer	Vanderbilt	Jr	RHP	64.0	256	35.2%	9.4%	32.2%	9.4%	71
2	Andrew Lee	Tennessee	Jr	RHP	16.2	53	43.4%	5.7%	30.8%	8.5%	72
3	Scott Weathersby	Ole Miss	Sr	RHP	31.2	116	32.8%	6.0%	28.4%	8.0%	77
4	Bret Marks	Tennessee	Sr	RHP	63.0	259	29.3%	7.3%	27.6%	8.2%	80
5	Mark Ecker	Texas A&M	So	RHP	19.1	76	34.2%	6.6%	28.0%	8.5%	80
6	Alden Cartwright	LSU	So	RHP	14.0	64	34.4%	4.7%	27.5%	8.1%	80
7	Robert Tyler	Georgia	So	RHP	14.0	60	36.7%	10.0%	28.4%	9.6%	81
8	A.J. Minter	Texas A&M	Jr	LHP	21.0	89	32.6%	9.0%	27.6%	9.3%	83
9	Andrew Vinson	Texas A&M	Jr	RHP	30.0	104	27.9%	2.9%	25.2%	6.9%	83
10	Bobby Poyner	Florida	Sr	LHP	42.0	153	25.5%	2.0%	24.2%	5.9%	83

Notes
Last week around this same time, the author noted that the Arkansas-Texas A&M series would feature a number of the top hitters in the SEC. Among those top hitters both was and currently is Texas A&M junior left fielder Logan Taylor.

Here, presented largely without comment, is an animated GIF artisanally crafted by the author of Logan Taylor hitting a home run in the first game of that series:

And the same thing, more slowly: