The Top Performances of College Baseball’s First Week

What follows does not constitute the most rigorous of statistical analyses. Rather, it’s designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have considerably more enthusiasm for than actual knowledge of the collegiate game — a shorthand means, that is, towards detecting which players have produced the most excellent performances over the first week of the college season.

As in a pair of earlier posts, what I’ve done is utilize principles recently introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most importance metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: KATOH+ for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and KATOH- (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each. Here are the types of player: top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. And here are the conferences: the Atlantic Coast (ACC), the Pacific 12 (Pac-12), and the Southeastern (SEC). As for why I’ve chosen those three conferences, it’s because they featured the most teams collectively included in D1 Baseball’s top-25 preseason rankings.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Chief among them: these numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent. That’s relevant because, in light of how the three conferences here feature a plurality of college baseball’s best teams and yet how none of them have played a conference matchup so, that means (almost by definition) that most of the teams faced inferior competition. One likely illustration of this: SEC hitters, for example, produced a collective .366 BABIP over the first week of the season.

Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some case.. Note that xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively.

ACC
Top Batter
Kel Johnson, RF, Georgia Tech (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Josh Delph, RF, Florida State (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Brandon Gold, 3B, Georgia Tech (So)

Top Pitcher
Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville (Jr)

Top Starter
Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville (Jr)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Kel Johnson	Georgia Tech	Fr	RF	14	7.1%	.643	.545	15.5%	.166	.367	118
2	Matt Thaiss	Virginia	So	C/DH	13	7.7%	.700	.429	15.7%	.167	.366	118
3	Brandon Gold	Georgia Tech	So	3B	8	25.0%	1.000	1.000	18.3%	.166	.370	115
4	Josh Delph	Florida St.	Sr	RF	13	0.0%	.500	.444	14.3%	.154	.366	114
5	Stuart Fairchild	Wake Forest	Fr	RF	13	0.0%	.444	.750	14.3%	.150	.370	114

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Kyle Funkhouser	Louisville	Jr	RHP	7.0	25	48.0%	4.0%	27.4%	6.9%	80
2	Drew Harrington	Louisville	So	LHP	4.1	18	50.0%	5.6%	26.2%	7.2%	83
3	Enrique Sosa	Miami	Jr	RHP	5.2	22	45.5%	9.1%	26.1%	7.5%	85
4	Benton Moss	North Carolina	Sr	RHP	5.0	22	40.9%	4.5%	25.0%	7.0%	86
5	Jesse Adams	Boston College	Jr	LHP	4.2	21	38.1%	0.0%	24.2%	6.5%	87

Notes
Finding Kyle Funkhouser’s name atop the ACC pitching list isn’t a great surprise. The junior right-hander features an promising combination both of arm speed and refinement. He was ranked 10th by Kiley McDaniel in the latter’s way-too-early draft rankings last fall. Georgia Tech features two of the top batters here — a product, in no small, of their robust offensive performance over the first weekend.

***

Pac-12
Top Batter
Chris Keck, 3B, UCLA (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Chris Keck, 3B, UCLA (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Chris Keck, 3B, UCLA (Sr)

Top Pitcher
Ryan Mason, RHP, California (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Ryan Mason, RHP, California (Jr)

Top Starter
Ryan Mason, RHP, California (Jr)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Chris Keck	UCLA	Sr	3B	17	17.6%	.750	.167	16.8%	.190	.338	119
2	Scott Kingery	Arizona	Jr	2B	22	4.5%	.409	.500	13.4%	.166	.343	117
3	Kevin Kramer	UCLA	Jr	SS	21	4.8%	.400	.308	13.5%	.164	.340	115
4	KJ Harrison	Oregon St.	Fr	1B	18	27.8%	.625	.556	19.2%	.182	.344	115
5	Colby Woodmansee	Arizona St.	So	SS	17	17.6%	.471	.500	16.8%	.166	.343	112

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Ryan Mason	California	Jr	RHP	6.0	24	50.0%	8.3%	26.8%	8.0%	79
2	Matt Bower	Wash. St.	Jr	LHP	4.1	17	52.9%	5.9%	25.5%	7.7%	82
3	Brent Wheatley	USC	Jr	RHP	6.0	26	38.5%	3.8%	24.2%	7.4%	85
4	Cody Hamlin	Arizona	Jr	RHP	7.0	27	33.3%	0.0%	22.9%	6.8%	87
5	Stephen Nogosek	Oregon	So	RHP	5.0	17	41.2%	0.0%	23.2%	7.2%	87

Notes
Two Californians — UCLA senior third baseman Chris Keck and UC-Berkeley’s junior right-hander Ryan Mason — receive all six possible distinctions between them. The latter is a 6-foot-7 person who throws his fastball at 87-92 mph, according to D1 Baseball’s Aaron Fitt.

***

SEC
Top Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Mike Bell, 2B, Georgia (So)

Top Pitcher
Reggie McClain, RHP, Missouri (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Reggie McClain, RHP, Missouri (Jr)

Top Starter
Reggie McClain, RHP, Missouri (Jr)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Harrison Bader	Florida	Jr	LF	19	15.8%	.800	.667	15.0%	.227	.371	125
2	Mike Bell	Georgia	So	2B	12	16.7%	.818	.286	15.1%	.206	.365	115
3	Hunter Tackett	Auburn	Fr	DH	11	9.1%	.667	.429	13.9%	.194	.366	113
4	Logan Taylor	Texas A&M	Jr	LF	12	8.3%	.600	.500	13.7%	.192	.367	113
5	Zack Bowers	Georgia	Jr	C/1B	11	9.1%	.667	.375	13.9%	.194	.366	113

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Reggie McClain	Missouri	Jr	RHP	8.0	24	41.7%	0.0%	29.4%	7.5%	86
2	Daniel Brown	Miss. St.	So	LHP	4.0	13	53.8%	0.0%	29.7%	8.0%	87
3	Justin Camp	Auburn	Jr	RHP	3.0	13	53.8%	0.0%	29.7%	8.0%	87
4	Turner Larkins	Texas A&M	Fr	RHP	6.1	26	38.5%	3.8%	28.8%	8.0%	89
5	Zach Jackson	Arkansas	So	RHP	4.0	18	44.4%	11.1%	29.1%	8.8%	90

Notes
Junior Harrison Bader has begun the season as Florida‘s left fielder but made all of his starts last year in center — a promising quality, that, for a player who has also produced the SEC’s best offensive line after a week. Junior Reggie McClain’s 10-strikeout performance against Iona last Friday represented his debut for Missouri after transferring from a Florida junior college.