The Top Players of NCAA Baseball by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

What follows does not constitute the most rigorous of statistical analyses. Rather, it’s designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have considerably more enthusiasm for than actual knowledge of the collegiate game — a shorthand means, that is, towards detecting which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

As in the first two editions of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles recently introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: KATOH+ for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and KATOH- (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each. Here are the types of player: top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. And here are the conferences: the Atlantic Coast (ACC), the Pacific 12 (Pac-12), and the Southeastern (SEC). As for why I’ve chosen those three conferences, it’s because they featured the most teams collectively included in D1 Baseball’s top-25 preseason rankings.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Chief among them: these numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent. That’s relevant because the three conferences here feature a plurality of college baseball’s best teams and yet few, if any, of them them have played a conference matchup. Which, that means (almost by definition) that most of the teams here have faced inferior competition.

Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. Note that xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively.

ACC
Top Batter
Will Craig, 1B/DH, Wake Forest (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Brendon Hayden, 1B/DH, Virginia Tech (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Cavan Biggio, 2B, Notre Dame (So)

Top Pitcher
Drew Harrington, LHP, Louisville (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Benton Moss, RHP, N. Carolina (Sr)

Top Starter
Benton Moss, RHP, N. Carolina (Sr)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Will Craig	Wake Forest	So	1B/DH	77	9.1%	.393	.490	13.2%	.214	.352	141
2	Matt Thaiss	Virgnia	So	C/DH	59	6.8%	.360	.293	12.7%	.192	.340	129
3	Kel Johnson	Georgia Tech	Fr	RF	75	25.3%	.409	.439	22.3%	.217	.349	128
4	Brendon Hayden	Virginia Tech	Sr	1B/DH	74	13.5%	.355	.277	15.7%	.200	.338	127
5	Cavan Biggio	Notre Dame	So	2B	67	14.9%	.333	.500	16.6%	.190	.352	127

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Drew Harrington	Louisville	So	LHP	15.2	56	42.9%	1.8%	31.1%	6.9%	71
2	Benton Moss	N. Carolina	Sr	RHP	15.2	65	40.0%	4.6%	30.5%	7.5%	74
3	Tommy DeJuneas	NC State	Fr	RHP	8.0	27	51.9%	3.7%	30.0%	8.0%	76
4	Matt Pidich	Pittsburgh	So	RHP	12.2	46	41.3%	4.3%	29.4%	7.7%	77
5	Jesse Adams	Boston College	Jr	LHP	15.2	67	38.8%	7.5%	30.0%	8.3%	77

Notes
Wake Forest’s Will Craig is a 6-foot-3, 230 pound sophomore who led the team in home runs last year, as a freshman. He became Wake’s starting third baseman last year but appears to have settled into a first base/DH role. He also pitches for the Deacons. North Carolina senior right-hander Benton Moss appeared fourth among all pitchers in the most recent edition of this same exercise. Since then he’s made one start, producing a 10:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 7.0 innings against Rhode Island (box). Moss recently sat at 92-94 mph, according to Don Miller of College Baseball Central, topping out at 96 mph.

***

Pac-12
Top Batter
KJ Harrison, C/1B, Oregon St. (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Gabe Clark, DH/1B, Oregon St. (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Jeff Hendrix, CF, Oregon St. (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Starter
Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA (Fr)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	KJ Harrison	Oregon St.	Fr	C/1B	83	13.3%	.456	.462	14.3%	.234	.342	146
2	Gabe Clark	Oregon St.	Jr	DH/1B	56	12.5%	.488	.281	14.2%	.216	.330	135
3	Chris Keck	UCLA	Sr	3B/1B	69	14.5%	.436	.293	15.1%	.216	.330	134
4	RJ Ybarra	Arizona St.	Jr	DH/1B	46	6.5%	.342	.382	11.8%	.174	.335	124
5	Jeff Hendrix	Oregon St.	Jr	CF	85	11.8%	.275	.400	13.5%	.177	.337	124

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Ryan Burr	Arizona St.	Jr	RHP	10.0	43	48.8%	9.3%	32.0%	8.2%	74
2	Griffin Canning	UCLA	Fr	RHP	25.2	99	32.3%	4.0%	27.9%	6.5%	80
3	Bernardo Flores	USC	So	LHP	13.1	56	35.7%	3.6%	27.9%	6.8%	81
4	Darin Gillies	Arizona St.	Sr	RHP	18.2	76	32.9%	5.3%	27.5%	7.1%	82
5	James Kaprielian	UCLA	Jr	RHP	24.1	98	29.6%	3.1%	26.3%	6.1%	83

Notes
Oregon State have recorded a 14-3 record in non-conference play so far this season, averaging over eight runs per game. Unsurprisingly, the batter leaderboard is populated by Beavers. Freshman KJ Harrison appeared in the most recent edition of this same exercise, while juniors Gabe Clark and Jeff Hendrix make their debuts. Of particular interest is Hendrix, who also occupies a place on the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum. UCLA freshman Griffin Canning leads all Pac-12 starting pitchers by the methodology used here. He’s produced strikeout and walk rates of 32.3% and 4.0%, respectively, sitting at about 89-91 mph according to Baseball America’s Vince Lara-Cinisomo.

***

SEC
Top Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Harrison Bader, LF, Florida (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Mikey White, SS, Alabama (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Brady Bramlett, RHP, Ole Miss (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Scott Weathersby, RHP, Ole Miss (Sr)

Top Starter
Brady Bramlett, RHP, Ole Miss (So)

Top-Five Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	KATOH+
1	Harrison Bader	Florida	Jr	LF	65	15.4%	.469	.455	17.3%	.226	.346	139
2	Zack Bowers	Georgia	Jr	C/1B	66	21.2%	.521	.379	20.3%	.241	.341	139
3	Mikey White	Alabama	Jr	SS	64	12.5%	.352	.404	15.8%	.193	.343	127
4	Kade Scivicque	LSU	Sr	C	42	2.4%	.361	.353	12.3%	.179	.340	126
5	Logan Taylor	Texas A&M	Jr	LF	59	16.9%	.373	.333	18.1%	.195	.339	123

Top-Five Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	KATOH-
1	Brady Bramlett	Ole Miss	So	RHP	22.0	82	41.5%	3.7%	33.5%	7.4%	71
2	Daniel Brown	Miss. St.	So	LHP	13.0	47	42.6%	6.4%	31.5%	8.6%	79
3	Taylor Widener	South Carolina	So	RHP	7.2	29	51.7%	13.8%	32.2%	9.9%	80
4	Alden Cartwright	LSU	So	RHP	6.0	22	50.0%	0.0%	30.3%	8.2%	81
5	Scott Weathersby	Ole Miss	Sr	RHP	10.1	37	43.2%	8.1%	30.8%	9.0%	82

Notes
Florida junior outfielder Harrison Bader has now appeared in all three editions of this exercise. Kiley McDaniel and I recently spoke at some length about his future. In a conference that features Alex Bregman (LSU) and Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt), Alabama’s Mikey White has produced the top offensive line among draft-eligible shortstops in the SEC. Four underclassmen occupy the top-four spots among SEC pitching leaders. The best of them so far has been Ole Miss right-hander Brady Bramlett. Reports on his repertoire suggest that he relies predominantly on a heavy fastball.