The Twins Have Turned Things Around

When we last checked in on the Twins, they had stumbled out of the gate, losing eight of their first 12 games — a start that looked particularly dismal given last September’s collapse, which cost them a playoff berth. But times have changed, with the offense heating up and the pitching staff emerging as one of the league’s stingiest. Thanks to a just-ended 13-game winning streak, the Twins now own the American League’s fourth-best record (26-21, .553), though injuries to players such as Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa threaten to stall their momentum.

On May 3, the Twins beat the Red Sox 4-3 in Boston, ending a four-game losing streak that had dropped them to 13-20 and had included two walk-off wins by the Guardians. They beat the Red Sox to close out a road trip, then went home and pulled off three-game sweeps of the Orioles and Giants, punctuated by a 10th-inning walk-off victory. Back on the road, they swept three from the hapless Orioles in Baltimore before taking the first two from the Brewers in Milwaukee, running their record to 26-20. On Sunday, they finally lost again, falling to the Brewers 5-2.

The final three wins of the Twins’ streak were all shutouts, starting with a 4-0 blanking of the Orioles by starter Chris Paddack and two relievers on Thursday, continuing with a 3-0 whitewashing of the Brewers behind Joe Ryan and three relievers on Friday, and concluding with a 7-0 drubbing of Milwaukee highlighted by the work of Pablo López and three relievers on Saturday. In all, the Twins shut out their opponents for 34 consecutive innings (the longest since the franchise moved to Minnesota in 1961), beginning with the fourth inning of Wednesday night’s game, after the Orioles had scored six runs; they extended that streak until the second inning on Sunday.

The winning streak was the second-longest in Twins history (since 1961), trailing only their last championship squad:

Last season’s 12-game winning streak reminds us that such runs don’t guarantee anything, including a playoff spot, but the group above does link these Twins back to some of the franchise’s best years.

Undoubtedly, the scariest moment of the streak — and perhaps the Twins’ season — took place in the third inning on Thursday. Cedric Mullins hit a shallow fly ball into center field. Correa ranged back, and Buxton ran forward, with the center fielder making a basket catch just before slamming his jaw into the shortstop’s left shoulder. Both players went down immediately, stayed down for a few minutes, and left the game:

Correa was placed on the 7-day concussion injured list on Friday, with Buxton following Saturday in a retroactive move. Said manager Rocco Baldelli of the moves, “You’ve just got to be very thoughtful and aware, and there’s a reason why this is the type of injury that we have these types of protocols for, and many, many steps and clearances that you have to go through.”

“I wouldn’t even think of talking about timelines or expectations,” added Baldelli. “There are none. We’re going to go day by day, and we hope for improvement and we’ll keep a good close eye on our guys as will the doctors.”

That’s quite a double whammy for a pair of players who the Twins have had trouble keeping healthy in recent years, though both had played in 41 of the team’s first 44 games before the collision. Correa, who played just 86 games last year due to plantar fasciitis, is hitting just .236/.274/.331 (71 wRC+) overall, but had hit .313/.333/.406 in the first nine games of the winning streak before being sidelined. Buxton, who was limited to 102 games last year — still his highest total since 2017 — is hitting .261/.312/.522 (131 wRC+) while leading the team in homers (10), steals (eight), and WAR (1.9). He had been on fire during the winning streak, hitting .282/.383/.667 with four homers in 11 games.

The hottest Twin during the streak actually wasn’t Buxton but Kody Clemens. Prior to the streak, the 29-year-old journeyman had gone just 1-for-14 this season with the Phillies and the Twins, who acquired him from Philadelphia for cash considerations on April 26. During the streak, he made seven starts at second base — a position that’s been a revolving door for the team, with five other players making multiple starts there — plus two at first and two appearances off the bench; in that span, he hit .360/.467/.760 (246 wRC+) with three homers in 34 PA. Two of the homers came in the wins that bookended the streak, including a May 3 homer in his first game at Fenway Park, with his famous father looking on:

Clemens has absolutely scorched the ball since joining the team, averaging a 99.2 mph exit velocity with a 23.1% barrel rate and 73.1% hard-hit rate. That’s only over the course of 26 batted balls, hardly enough to read too much into it, but even this brief run has been without precedent during his four-year major league career:

While it would be easy to dismiss this as just a heater, it bears noting that the 29-year-old Clemens’ overall bat speed has spiked from last year’s average swing speed of 70.5 mph to 73.4, with his fast swing rate increasing from 4.3% to 30.7% and his blast rate from 9.6% to 19.3%. Regular play may be a factor. “My whole big league career to this point has been pinch-hitting, sporadic starts after sitting for a while,” Clemens said recently. “I’ve never really gotten the opportunity to play every day or at least multiple times during the week. It’s been nice to try to get in a rhythm and see a lot of pitches and get a lot of consistent at-bats.”

Suffice it to say that if Clemens keeps this up, he’ll merit a closer look. Meanwhile, also on a tear during the streak was left fielder Harrison Bader (.345/.424/.552, 181 wRC+). So far, he’s been a great free agent pickup for the Twins, hitting .280/.366/.432 for a 132 wRC+, the highest among the team’s regulars, and his defense has been exceptional as well, with his 5 DRS tied for third among left fielders and his 3 FRV tied for first. Bader’s play, and that of Trevor Larnach (.244/.325/.413, 111 wRC+) — the latter of whom has hit for a 147 wRC+ with seven homers over the past month — has helped the Twins withstand the absence of Matt Wallner. The 27-year-old slugger has been out since April 15 due to a Grade 3 left hamstring strain. He’s slated to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on Wednesday

While the catching tandem of Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez hit well during the streak, first baseman Ty France and third baseman Royce Lewis did not, and both have been drags on the offense in general. France has hit for just a 96 wRC+ (.256/.319/.357), while Lewis, who didn’t make his season debut until May 6 due to a left hamstring strain, is just past an unenviable streak of his own: 39 plate appearances and 36 at-bats without a hit. He ended last year in an 0-for-21 slide (with two walks), then belatedly started this one by going 0-for-15 (with one walk) before hitting a game-tying single off the Giants’ Erik Miller on May 11 (he added another single later). While he owns a 66 wRC+ in 44 PA overall, he’s hit a more encouraging 296/.367/.444 since that breakout game.

With Buxton, Correa, and Wallner all out, the lineup has had a makeshift feel, though at least on Monday, when the Twins-Guardians game was suspended after three innings due to rain, the versatile Willi Castro — who’s started games at five different positions — returned to the lineup after missing two games due to a knee contusion. Brooks Lee, who got the bulk of the work at third base between Jose Miranda’s mid-April demotion and the return of Lewis, has filled in for Correa at shortstop, with Clemens manning second base; Edouard Julien was optioned back to St. Paul after batting just .198/.288/.319 (76 wRC+) through May 2, meaning that he’s missed all the recent fun. DaShawn Keirsey Jr., a 28-year-old lefty-swinging rookie, has started the last three games in place of Buxton, but he’s hit just .120/.137/.180 through 51 PA this season, though one of his six hits thus far was his walk-off single against the Giants. While it might make more sense for Bader to play center given his lengthy track record, he missed Thursday and Friday’s games with groin tightness.

While the Twins hit .267/.324/.437 (117 wRC+) while scoring 5.23 runs per game during the streak, the offense has been average overall in terms of wRC+ (100) and below-average in terms of scoring (4.13 runs per game). Instead, the real strength of the team has been its pitching. During the streak, the staff put up a 2.06 ERA and 2.71 FIP, and overall the Twins’ 3.38 runs per game allowed and 3.20 ERA both rank second in the AL (their 3.41 FIP is first).

The starters combined for a 2.85 ERA and 3.28 FIP in 72.2 innings during the streak, with Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, and Bailey Ober all throwing well in multiple starts; Simeon Woods Richardson, who did not, was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul on Thursday, and replaced in the rotation by Zebby Matthews, a 24-year-old righty who was rocked for four runs in three innings on Sunday, his season debut with the Twins. Ryan has been stellar thus far overall, ranking third in the AL in strikeout rate (31.5%), ninth in ERA (2.42), and tied for 10th in FIP (3.11) through 52 innings. López has been even better than Ryan at run prevention (2.40 ERA, 2.44 FIP), with a 27.5% strikeout rate himself. A stint on the injured list due to a hamstring strain cost him a couple of starts, so he’s just two innings short of qualifying for the leaderboards. Ober has pitched respectably (3.72 ERA, 3.92 FIP), and while Paddack’s overall numbers (4.05 ERA, 4.78 FIP) are below average, they’re distorted by his nine-run, 3.1-inning shellacking by the White Sox on March 31. Throw that out and he’s got a 2.49 ERA and 3.83 FIP in eight starts totaling 43.1 innings.

The bullpen was absolutely lights-out, posting an 0.79 ERA in 45.1 innings during the winning streak, including eight shutout frames by closer Jhoan Duran, who notched six saves. The unit leads the majors in FIP (3.02) and WAR (3.1), while ranking second in the AL in ERA (2.89) and third in strikeout rate (26.4%). Duran has allowed just two earned runs in 21.2 innings while converting all eight save chances. The setup corps of Cole Sands and Griffin Jax has its questions marks, as the former has struck out just 19.7% of hitters and the latter has been cuffed for a 5.23 ERA and 1.31 homers per nine, but middle relievers Louis Varland and Brock Stewart have been good. The team did just lose lefty Danny Coulombe to the injured list due to an extensor strain; he hadn’t been scored upon in 16.2 innings and had struck out 19 while walking just two.

The Twins began the year as AL Central favorites, and while that’s no longer the case according to our Playoff Odds — the Tigers are at 64.4% thanks to their 31-17 start — they look pretty good in light of the collective struggles of the AL East teams besides the Yankees. In fact, their odds of securing a playoff berth and even winning the World Series have actually improved since Opening Day:

With the Royals (27-22) and Guardians (25-21) both playing well, the Twins still have their work cut out for them within a very competitive division, and they could feel the impact of their current injuries for awhile. But thanks to that winning streak, they’re right where everyone expected them to be two months ago: back in the hunt for a playoff spot.