The Unfortunate State of the NL Third Baseman
Scott Rolen is starting at third base for the National League All Stars. This isn’t so much an indictment of the All-Star selection process (although it certainly could be) as it is the sad, sad state of third base in the National League right now.
National League third basemen are currently hitting .254/.315/.373, for a .688 OPS. The only inferior non-pitcher position is the shortstop, at .675. Perhaps part of this is due to injury — Pablo Sandoval, one of the best hitting 3B in the game right now, has only played in 50 games. David Wright has only played 39 games. Ryan Zimmerman has only played 34. The loss of those three star-level hitters has certainly hurt the position, leading to more time for players like Jerry Hairston Jr., Miguel Tejada, and Alex Cora. Also, Brandon Wood plays in the National League now.
Maybe if Chase Headley or Aramis Ramirez or Sandoval were starting at third base for the NL, the poor performance around the league could be easily swept under the rug. With Rolen earning that starting nod with his .276 on-base percentage — .276 on-base percentage! — it’s only magnified. Even Placido Polanco, the original starter, was far from impressive, posting a meager .346 SLG in the first half.
Looking at the leaderboards, aside from the three acceptable choices mentioned above, we have Ryan Roberts, a guy in the midst of a breakout season. We have Daniel Murphy, an injury replacement who has played all of 21 games at third base. And that’s it for players above 2.0 WAR at the All-Star break. Given that 5 WAR is a generally accepted cut-off for All-Star level performance, it seems clear that the NL All-Star starter was bound to look unimpressive regardless of the choice.
Then throw in the sub-replacement players — Melvin Mora, Casey McGehee, Jose Lopez, Jorge Cantu and Chris Johnson, three of whom were opening day starters, all enter the break below -0.5 WAR. As much as the lack of star talent is to blame for the lack of production out of NL third basemen, the presence of such offensive black holes is just as influential.
Maybe some of these players will rebound, and maybe the return of the stars from injury will return third base to it’s former home as a power-hitting position, but right now that seems quite unlikely. Teams are not only concerned with offense out of the hot corner, but defense as well. Although there’s almost no way that the position doesn’t improve in the coming years and even in the second half, chances are it comes with the glove as much as (if not more than) the bat. Don’t be surprised if third base continues to be as powerless as second base in the near future.
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…and people will continue to comment in wonder about league-wide drops in offense and yet another Year of The Pitcher
I’m surprised the NL didn’t try to just start Braun at 3rd and see if no one would complain. That really is a pathetic position.
Braun already pulled out of the game due to injury.
Hahahaha
he can barely play outfield!!
miguel tejada playing third for a week nearly collapsed those numbers for league wide 4rd basemen.
hey, he might actually be useful at 4rd base
Miguel Tejada is like a 4rd in every way.
F.ound O.n the R.oad D.ead
what a typo
David Freese has 1.3 War in just 38 games. I wonder why he isn’t mentioned.
I love the eff you that Aramis gave the league. Seriously? Rolen over Aramis? Of course he turned down Boch’s invite
Polanco has clearly been injured for longer for longer than the last week and was just unsuccessfully attempting to play anyway. Unfortunately due to his age and the chronic nature of the injury it is not clear he will ever fully recover.
Why stop at the NL?! Not like the AL is much better! Not counting Bautista, who is really a OF, its .. Arod, M.Young, Beltre, and A.Gordon? Not much here either. 3B is a wasteland this year, and real iffy for the next while.
Adrian Beltre is having a really solid season.
That’s probably why he included him.
Gordon hasn’t played a game at 3rd all year, so you can remove him from your list…
You forgot about the Jewish/Greek God and Longoria.
Jobless, apparently.
Young has been a DH/1B most of the year. He’s only played 4 games at 3B so he should probably be off your list too…
And ARod’s out 4-6 weeks with meniscus surgery.
If they didn’t screw around putting Rolen on the team (and in the starting lineup) over Aramis Ramirez in the first place, this discussion wouldn’t be necessary. I don’t care how this one counts (for the Yankees and Phillies), nobody likes being the 4th choice behind inferior options… certainly they won’t cancel plans that involve plane tickets for that.
Ramirez, Headley and Sandoval (even missing time due to injury) would be a strong trio at third, with Roberts also being a strong choice if you just couldn’t stomach Sandoval’s lack of sample size.
It’s pitiful that the fans voted in Polonco, he wasn’t even All Star caliber last year! You can forgive them not voting Aramis after the first two months of the season, but he should have been the clear choice over Rolen as a replacement. I’d even take Headley due to the nature that that ballpark certainly didn’t help the numbers but his ~.800 OPS was out there for anyone to see. Injuries clearly gets Pablo and Freese screwed, even though their limited PAs catching the seasonal WAR of other players considered and exceeding Rolen’s.
Polanco had a very good first month (.433wOBA, .972OPS.) That kind of thing can cause the casual fan to vote for someone even if past statistics indicate he’s not even close to being that good. Also, the fact that there are always 45,000+ potential voters at his home ballpark every night probably didn’t hurt his chances.
especially since right after the first month is when the voting first begins
you could substitute ‘shortstop’ for ‘third baseman,’ change a few names, and this article would literally be exactly the same
Except with Reyes and Tulo, you have two legitimate stars who are well on their way to 5+ WAR seasons.
We’re nearing the point where we’ll have to consider abandoning the concept of corner infielders and middle infielders, seeing as 3rd basemen now post equivalent offensive numbers to secondbasemen and shortstops. Today there are first baseman and fielding infielders (2B, SS, 3B), though many clubs continue to force power no-hit poor fielders into the 3B slot.
I had Polanco on my NL All-Star Team, however, he was a back-up. I slotted in Headley as the starter with Ryan Roberts as my Utility dude.
How they were denied, I’ll never know *cough* Bruce Douchey *cough*.
Isn’t 5 WAR for the season? So it would be more along the line of looking for 2.5-3.0 WAR for all stars at this point in the year. Doesn’t change the argument much though, It’s a weird year of positional haves and have-nots
I think that’s what he was saying. Most guys are under 2 WAR, so they don’t project as all-stars over a full season. Interestingly, Panda is at 2.5 WAR, despite missing significant time.
How much choice did Bochy have? I honestly don’t know. It seems like maybe Ramirez is not a likeable dude, at least to other players for him to have such nice numbers and still get snubbed, by the players.
His numbers weren’t so impressive when the players were doing the voting… he turned it on recently to where his numbers are now superior among NL 3Bs. Timing is a huge flaw in most of the voting procedures involving All-Star games (an easily fixed one with the immediate and electronic options available). However, this is why they have the option to replace players which can right such wrongs. If they had gone to Ramirez first, which they should have, he’d be an All-Star instead of Rolen.
Whoever’s next in the player voting is automatic.
Since 1998 Expansion here are the teams with most and least WAR from 3b
Atlanta 71.7
Cardinals 66.8
Mets 66.4
Yankees 58.9
Brewers 48.3
Two points for anyone who can guess the Brewers leader in WAR since 98 without looking it up.
Bringing up the rear:
Indians 16.5
Pirates 18.2
Royals 21.8
Tigers 22.4
Nationals 23.9 (Zim with +28 !)
Orioles 23.9
man, it was fun when chipper was chipper.
Jeff Cirillo?
Richie Sexson?
How did David Freese not get mentioned?
I wrote in Ryan Roberts.
I don’t know why, but 3B is always tough to fill.
You can always pick up a 2b, 1b, even a ss.
but 3b is a continual parade of flashes in the pan and failed prospects.
Wow, no David Freese?! 18 players were named out of a combined 16 NL teams, and the one who is (currently) the starting 3B on the Cards is omitted…
32 games started at 3B, that’s a little over 1/3 of games the cards have played this year.
Top 3 hitters at 3B in the NL injured. Even in a normal year relatively injury free year you only have 3-4 really good hitters at 3B, so thats that.
Not many good hitters in general coming up the past several years. Must be the vaccines.LOL
Doesn’t this raise a few questions about how replacement player is measured? When you give me a list of Mora, Lopez, Cantu, and Johnson and say they’re all -0.5 or worse WAR, that seems odd since they essentially ARE replacement players. They were the readily available guys who teams picked up to fill in gaps.
Never attach names to replacement level, it only leads to confusion.
I’m not trying to focus on the specific players mention as much as the concept. Those players are guys who were readily available to any major league club who simply needed a warm body to fill a spot. I thought that essentially was the definition of a replacement player.
I’m not one of those guys who hops on here and just criticizes fangraphs to make myself feel better, and that’s not what I’m doing here. I’m just wondering how replacement level is calculated, because it seems here that we have a solid handful of replacement players who are producing negative WAR.
A Replacement player can play below (or above) Replacement level over periods of time; and this is especially true for part-time players. It doesn’t mean there is an issue with the baseline though, only that some guys performed extremely poorly. Theoretically, the replacement level guys as a whole will even themselves out to an accumulative 0 in the long run (if they don’t already)
I also question any of those players really being “replacement players” as you state though – the vets (Mora, Lopez and Cantu) have an accumulative 13.3 WAR over the prior 3 seasons with the weakest (Mora) still providing 4 WAR from ’08-’10. These are Aging/Faulting Starters and should probably be considered “bench/role players” or “lesser options”, not “replacement players”.
“Replacement Players” for the 3B position are more the Cody Ransom/Chris Woodward/Joe Thurston types; guys who would never warrant a ML job until a team gets into that dire-situation which warrants an emergency call-up. A true “replacement level” player is not just someone who is freely available on the Major League FA market, but rather more the guys on the AAA scrap heap or MiLB trade market for “cash considerations” – those are the guys that have the true interchangeable skill-sets and value who bounce around like nothing from team to team waiting for their chance to see the show.
True fact: Brandon Wood’s OBP in the NL this year is the same as Rolen’s.
I don’t think anybody has mentioned this, so Reply-most of this discussion: I’m pretty sure Rolen got picked because he had the next-highest vote total after Chipper Jones dropped out.
PS: Aramis Ramirez isn’t all that and a bag of chips anymore, so that’s not really a travesty. At least Rolen still plays excellent defense.
True, he’s not. But he ended at the break on a serious tear and with a respectable .843 OPS.
“all that and a bag of CHIPS”. I agree, he’s not as good as Chipper in his prime. Most 3B aren’t.
I agree that Ramirez’ numbers look reasonable, but anyone who’s watched him play knows he’s not an all-star. He’s had a couple really hot weeks, but other than that he’s been slow, lazy, and utterly disinterested. The mere idea that he might be a worthwhile choice at 3B is an utter indictment of the position.
Rolen is a star based on his past accomplishments, so this doesn’t bother me too much. But the general point that 3B sucks is right on.
I think the problem is the requirements of the position …
[1] Good/Power hitter.
[2] Excellent reflexes (position closer to home plate than any other non-P/C fielder)
[3] Strong, accurate arm
So, the player basically needs excellent reflexes, great hands, a very good arm (strength and accuracy), and be a good hitter.
If you apply that same criteria to every other position, you don’t find many players that fit the bill. So, what we basically get are guys that “play third” that are probably suited for a different position.
You don’t often see a “3rd base prospect” that stays at the position for a long time. 3B seems to be a position that guys are moved “to” (i.e., from shortstop or catcher, etc) or they are moved “from” once they show they can’t play the position.
Right now, there are just so many 3B’s in the “average” range that it’s muddled. There are currently 20 3B’s on pace for a 2.0+ WAR season, with 5 of those in the 5+ WAR range (pace).
For a comparison, I went through the past seasons and looked at how many 2.0+ WAR 3B’s there were total.
2011: 20 (pace)
2010: 18
2009: 23
2008: 20
2007: 20
2006: 23
2005: 21
2004: 20
2003: 17
2002: 17
2001: 18
2000: 18
It’s actually fairly consistent. The BIG difference is the lack of top end seasons. IMO, that can be chalked up to two things that plague the position of 3B, [1] position changes (often to 1B for the good hitting 3B’s, or to 2B for the 3B’s that start to lose a step), and [2] Injuries (there’s a high attrition rate at 3B).
It’s a tough, tough, position to stick at and last at a high level of performance.
One has to wonder how long guys like Sandoval, Longoria, Zimmerman, etc stick at 3B, before they move to 1B.
NL 3B are world beaters compared to the giant bag of suck that are AL C or AL SS.
I think that most positions, if you injure the top 3, will look like this.
Scott Rolen is without a doubt an excellent third baseman and leader for the Reds. The problem with him, as it has been the last few years is that he is injury prone and his power numbers this year clearly indicate that. The loss of his juice in the lineup is definately one of the reason the Reds find themselves almost out of contention. Combine that with the loss of Cabrera and viola, you have the mediocricy that stinks at Great American Ball Park. While us die hard fans were jublient last year, this year could cause ulcers. Very frustrating.
That’s always been the case with Scottie. What’s amazing is to look at some of his WAR numbers, even in seasons where he missed a lot of games. I wonder how he compares to other players in the number of games it takes to accumulate 1 WAR.
He has 73.7 WAR in 1943 games. So, it takes him 26 games to accumulate 1 WAR.
The 3B’s ahead of Rolen in career WAR and the number of games it takes/took for them to accumulate 1 WAR …
ARod — 2383/112.4 (21.2)
Schmidt — 2404/110.5 (21.8)
Mathews — 2391/107.2 (22.3)
Boggs — 2440/94.8 (25.7)
Robinson –2896/94.6 (30.6)
Brett — 2707/91.6 (29.6)
Jones — 2338/86.3 (27.1)
Santo –2243/79.3 (28.3)
Killebrew — 2345/78.4 (29.9)
Molitor –2683/75.2 (35.7)
Obviously, there are a variety of factors that play into this (multiple positions, age, etc) that disable it from being an excellent comparison. However, Rolen has been a damn good 3B, even with being injured.
2011 has been, by a decent amount, Rolen’s “worst” season, even when considering GP in other seasons. That’s a concern, considering age and previous injuries. However, his defense still remains sharp … and that’s often the first thing to go for 3B’s (usually resulting in them making a position change).
They should have started Pujols at 3rd. He is back from the DL and has played 3rd this year and in the past. The NL lineup could have been scary with Pujols and Reyes (if he was healthy). I would have liked seeing Fielder at DH, Votto at 1st and Pujols at 3rd– all starting. And Weeks should have caught the ball Fielder dropped for a hit.
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