Trading-Deadline Minor-League Talent Arsenals – NL

The trading deadline is nearly upon us, and if history is a guide, there could be a dizzying amount of player movement in the coming days. This season appears to be unique in a couple of ways. There seems to be a somewhat historic mismatching of pure buyers and sellers, in large part due to the insanity of the American League wild-card race. Purely by definition, is there a sure seller in that bunch?

This week, we’re previewing the deadline in a somewhat unique manner. Instead of focusing solely on club’s holes and potential targets, we’ll hone in on them from their respective talent arsenals to be drawn upon to make deadline deals. Which clubs are best — and worst — positioned to land the most attractive prizes on the market? Yesterday, we looked at the American League. Today, it’s the NL, and its somewhat more traditional stratification of buyers and sellers.

In reality, the traditional notions of the deadline “buyer” and “seller” are a bit antiquated. The most nimble, forward-thinking organizations are prepared to buy and sell simultaneously, depending upon where the excess value presents itself. Job No. 1 for each club is to properly value its assets. Certain clubs may over- or undershoot the target based on flawed assumptions, overreliance on recent events, etc., and the best front offices will quickly walk away or pounce on those misjudgments. We’ll do our best to place each team into a relative buy/sell category, knowing full well that their situations are fluid, and could change within a week or less.

Below are the NL standings before Wednesday’s games. The third column lists each team’s games behind the current second wild card, while the fourth lists cumulative games behind*. At the All-Star break, the A’s and Mariners, while standing tied for dead last in the AL, were only 29.5 cumulative games behind the second wild-card club. As you can see, it’s a much different situation in the NL, with every team from the Reds down basically buried, and even the Braves, Padres and Diamondbacks in basically the same shape as the Rangers and White Sox were at the break. In the NL, there aren’t as many clubs for those relative also-rans to jump over, but the closest wild-card runners-up, the Giants and Mets, are better positioned than teams like the Jays, Orioles an Rays are in the AL. Even a well-timed eight-game winning streak, while making a chunk of those cumulative games behind go away, likely isn’t enough to propel the Braves, Padres or D-Backs into a strong position.

*That is, the sum of all the games-behind figures of all the teams in front of the relevant team. Cumulative games behind gives a sense of how close a club is to actual contention.

The last two columns list each club’s run differential entering Monday’s games, and their projected (by Fangraphs) final win total. Seven .500+ teams are projected, with the Padres next best at 78 wins. This, compared to the AL maelstrom, which at the break saw the second wild card team at 82 wins, and the 15th-place club just five games worse at 77. Though the NL race projects as tame compared to that of the junior circuit, the pack is still quite condensed when the two leagues are viewed as a whole, which is how we should look at the trading deadline. A condensed pack means more buyers than sellers, which equals opportunity for the sellers.

	W	L	GB	CUM GB	+/- RUN	PROJ W
STL	59	34	—	—	+103	95
LAD	53	42	—	—	+64	92
WAS	50	42	—	—	+31	89
PIT	54	39	—	—	+54	91
CUB	50	42	—	—	+21	87
SF	50	44	1	1	+36	85
NYM	49	45	2	3	-11	82
ATL	45	49	6	15	-40	75
SD	44	50	7	19	-49	78
AZ	43	49	7	19	-7	76
CIN	41	50	8.5	27.5	-50	74
MIL	42	52	9	31.5	-31	74
COL	40	52	10	39.5	-65	72
MIA	39	55	12	57.5	-29	72
PHL	33	63	19	127.5	-153	60

With the above playing field as context, let’s next look at each club’s arsenal of minor-league trading chips. We’ll do so by looking at the number of position players and starting pitchers who qualified for my midseason minor-league top-prospect lists.

If you aren’t familiar with my minor-league lists, here is a brief refresher. They aren’t pure top-prospect lists; they basically serve as follow lists, after which traditional scouting methods are used to tweak the order. Qualification for my lists are based upon a combination of performance and age relative to league/level. The younger a prospect is at each level, the less production is required to get him onto the list. At level-specific “optimal ages” (22 at AAA, 21 at AA, 20 at High-A, 19 at Low-A), a player qualifies regardless of performance. At level-specific, much older ages (26 at AAA, 25 at AA, 24 at High-A, 23 at Low-A), you can’t qualify for the list no matter how loud your performance. Only full-season league prospects are considered.

Does my method miss some prospects? A few. Defense-first guys at offense-scarce positions and pitch-to-contact types with high grounder rates sometimes slip through the cracks. I’m ready for those guys, and can easily go find them to add to my list in the adjustment phase. Still, the vast majority of productive major leaguers qualified for my lists at one point in time in their respective minor-league careers. This includes successful major-league relievers, most of whom started at some point in the minors. Of the many, many relievers in last week’s All Star Game, only Mark Melancon and Darren O’Day never started as prospects. Every one of the others did, and qualified for my list. Exactly 303 position players and 144 starting pitchers made the cut this time around.

The first two columns in the table below list each club’s overall total and number of top-100 position players on my midseason list. The next two list each club’s overall total and number of top-50 starting pitchers on my midseason list. The last two columns add the two together to yield each club’s overall prospect total, and their number of higher-end prospects.

	HIT	HIT T100	PIT	PIT T50	TOT	TOT 100/50
ATL	11	6	6	2	17	8
AZ	9		4	1	13	1
CIN	9		3	2	12	2
COL	10	4	6	2	16	6
CUB	12	8	6	1	18	9
LAD	7	3	7	3	14	6
MIA	6	1	2	1	8	2
MIL	10	3	3	1	13	4
NYM	11	7	5	2	16	9
PHL	14	4	5	1	19	5
PIT	15	6	6	2	21	8
SD	11	3	1		12	3
SF	3	1	4		7	1
STL	5		5	1	10	1
WAS	5	2	4	2	9	4

Incorporating the information on the above table, let’s take a brief look at each club’s status leading up to the trading deadline, attempting to identify any untouchable minor leaguers, as well as the best prospects who potentially might be moved. A player we might want to keep in mind during this exercise would be Rays’ teenage infield prospect Willy Adames. Only the most minors-focused among you might have heard of him entering last year’s deadline season. He ranked near the very top of my midseason list last summer as a Tiger prospect, and was then dealt away as part of the three-way transaction that sent David Price to Detroit and Austin Jackson to Seattle. He ranked 13th on my list this summer, and he’s now well known enough to make multiple industry-wide top-prospect lists.

– ATLANTA BRAVES – The Braves have quite ably engineered a rebuild, or at least a reboot, in record time while remaining somewhat competitive. Despite being on the fringes of the race, the Braves would appear to have no illusions regarding their current standing, and project as at least soft sellers at the deadline. Their system is a bit above league average with regard to prospect quantity (17 qualifiers) and quality (8 top-100 hitters/top-50 pitchers). Their best, most untouchable full-season-league prospects are a combination of the homegrown (middle infielders Ozhaino Albies and Jose Peraza) and the acquired (RHP Matt Wisler). Touki Toussaint has also pitched quite well since being “bought” from Arizona. The Braves are sitting in a good place for the long haul, and will do nothing at the deadline to jeopardize that.

– ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – Yes, the D-Backs have been more competitive at the major-league level than expected to this point, but that’s about it for the positives. Their minor-league system is a bit thin with regard to depth, and is parched with regard to impact talent. Their best full-season performer by far this season has been Robbie Ray, a long-time favorite of my system, and he hasn’t missed a beat in the majors. The worst thing they could do is aggressively buy at the deadline, as the opportunity to bolster their system is there for them. One can debate the Toussaint deal endlessly — after all, every prospect has their cash price, I guess — but it doesn’t send the right message for a club in Arizona’s current competitive situation.

– CINCINNATI REDS – The NL Central deserves an article of its own. The Cards and Pirates’ present and the Pirates and Cubs’ future is so, so bright that it really places the Reds and Brewers in a spot. This deadline is a clear opportunity for the Reds to cash in a big fish (Johnny Cueto) plus some still-attractive (at least in the short term) major-league assets like Mike Leake, Jay Bruce and Marlon Byrd to rebuild their system, which beyond RHP Robert Stephenson is nearly devoid of high-end talent. While my personal thesis would be for all clubs to position themselves to buy and sell simultaneously, there might not be a team in the current market who would benefit more from a substantial sell-off then the Reds.

– COLORADO ROCKIES – The Rockies are in a bit of a tight spot, as the standings scream “sell,” but their most notable tradable assets, long-term core players Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, are somewhere between difficult and impossible to move for various reasons. Gonzalez has hit better of late, giving them at least a puncher’s chance of getting some value in exchange for his pricey contract. Their minor-league system is average and on the rebound, with position-player regulars Ryan McMahon and Trevor Story looking like major-league regulars. The development of Coors-ready major-league pitching remains the rub: A-ball righties Antonio Senzatela and 2014 2nd rounder Ryan Castellani (if you can overlook his 0-6 record, the byproduct of pitch counts and short outings) along with slightly disappointing blue-chipper Jon Gray are their best internal hopes at present.

– CHICAGO CUBS – Here’s where the fun is. Their big-league club is, obviously, young, exciting and bursting with offensive potential. Their minor-league system is more of the same. Their overall prospect quantity is slightly above average (18 qualifiers) and the quality is at the top of the NL (9 T100/T50 guys). Kyle Schwarber is the most recent to graduate to the majors, and it doesn’t look like he’s going back anytime soon. The only problem is, the talent is imbalanced toward position players. The Cubs are clear deadline buyers, and pitching of all stripes will be targeted. The Cubs’ offensive future is so bright that they are one of the few clubs who could trade a talent like Javier Baez without blinking. Ditto RF Billy Mckinney, who has done nothing but hit, and is sitting in Double-A at age 20. UT Arismendy Alcantara could also move: he can play a bunch of positions capably, and while he hasn’t hit in his brief MLB opportunities, he’s shown power and speed in the upper minors.

– LOS ANGELES DODGERS – The fun continues. No, the Dodgers’ system isn’t as deep as the Cubs’, with only 14 qualifiers for my lists. Their high-end prospects match up with anyone, however: while their total of 6 T100/T50 guy is only a bit above average, they might well possess the best position player (Corey Seager) and pitching (Julio Urias) prospects in the game. Those two alone constitute an average system by themselves, and give the Dodgers the freedom to go hard after anyone on the market with their next tier of impact prospects, which includes RHPs Jose De Leon and Grant Holmes and 1B Clay Bellinger. Untouchable prospects in many systems, they can be the ticket to the Dodgers’ choice of available starting pitchers.

– MIAMI MARLINS – The Marlins were talking like buyers for a spell, even after their managerial change, even after Giancarlo Stanton’s injury. Things haven’t gotten better, however, with Marcell Ozuna sitting in Triple-A, Christian Yelich struggling to elevate the baseball, and most of their young pitchers either rebounding from or struggling through injuries. They need to look at the bright side here and recognize a selling opportunity to bolster their system, which has very quietly drifted toward becoming one of the NL’s leanest with regard to prospect quantity (8 qualifiers) and quality (2 T100/T50 guys). Low-A 1B K.J. Woods, their 2013 4th rounder, has grown into some power at age 19, and might be the closest to an impact full-season-league prospect.

– MILWAUKEE BREWERS – Things are looking a bit up of late for the Brewers, on both the major- and minor-league fronts. They were clearly in the running for the cellar with regard to minor-league talent in recent years, but are now creeping closer to average. In SS Orlando Arcia they possess their first blue-chip position-player prospect in quite a while, and corner OFs Clint Coulter and Michael Reed both could start in the majors. 2014 1st rounder, LHP Kodi Medeiros is one of the foremost grounder generators in the minors, and the early returns on their 2015 draft are quite good. The Brewers must be unmoved by their recent 17-6 run, and take the long view that will give them the best chance to further beef up their system and compete in this very difficult division moving forward.

– NEW YORK METS – The Mets face a pretty interesting conundrum at the deadline. They are right there in the wild-card mix, and possess easily identifiable shortcomings that can be addressed in this market. They have the minor-league pieces to go get what they want: they rank about average in terms of prospect quantity (16 qualifiers) and well above in quality (9 T100/T50 guys). Michael Conforto isn’t going anywhere, but do the Mets dip into their substantial next tier of position-player prospects that includes Dilson Herrera, Dominic Smith, Amed Rosario, Brandon Nimmo, Wulimer Becerra and Gavin Cecchini to address their needs? The intermediate term looks quite bright in Queens, but it will be interesting to see how much of that future will be turned into short-term assets within the next week.

– PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES – The present is about as bad as it gets in Philly. 127.5 cumulative games behind is downright staggering. This isn’t a long-term hole of despair, however. Prospect quantity is above average (19 qualifiers) and while the quality is just average (5 T100/T50 guys), their second-best prospect, Maikel Franco, is already in place, and the best, SS J.P. Crawford, isn’t far behind. One cannot underestimate the value of possessing a truly elite prospect like Crawford. It’s not as pretty a picture on the pitching side, as only RHP Aaron Nola has taken a step forward this season among a deep group of upper-minor-league starters that includes offseason acquisitions Zach Eflin, Ben Lively and Tom Windle and the homegrown Jesse Biddle and Severino Gonzalez. The package they ultimately receive for Cole Hamels will make or break their deadline success; he’s struggling at the worst possible time, making his next start or two pivotal.

– PITTSBURGH PIRATES – Until a few days ago, the Pirates were sitting in a great place headed into the deadline, possessing a balanced major-league club and a strong minor-league system, with an NL-leading 21 qualifiers that includes 8 T100/T50 prospects, tied for third in the league. Then Jordy Mercer got hurt, joining Josh Harrison on the sidelines, taxing their overall depth. This likely moves the Pirates from a stand pat approach into soft buyer mode. Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell and Austin Meadows aren’t going anywhere, but the Pirates do possess solid middle-infield depth, and could move one of Alen Hanson, Adam Frazier or Harold Ramirez to address their needs. With the injury to Nick Kingham, the Bucs could also stand to bolster their starting pitching depth.

– SAN DIEGO PADRES – Where to begin with the Padres… Their whirlwind of offseason activity depleted their minor-league system and has gained them absolutely no traction at the major-league level. It hasn’t worked, to say the least, and the next logical step would seem to attempt to rid themselves of whatever long-term win-now contracts they can. They might find a taker for James Shields, but the Matt Kemp ship has likely sailed. The Padres’ system is now absolutely bereft of pitching talent, which should be the focus of their selling effort. A.J. Preller’s first offseason was of the gunslinger variety; there needs to be a more nuanced, targeted approach this summer. They cannot be fooled into thinking they have a legitimate shot to land a wild-card berth.

– SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – The Giants at times appear to be playing — and winning — a different game than anyone else is playing. Heads are often scratched when they make their first-round draft pick, but you look up a couple years later, and there’s Joe Panik playing a quality second base for a champion. Their minor-league system is usually lightly regarded, and this year is no exception: they rank last in prospect quantity (7 qualifiers) and quality (1 T100/T50 guy) based on my lists. Rest assured that they will probably get the most out of prospects like SS Christian Arroyo and RHP Clayton Blackburn, as they have with Matt Duffy and Chris Heston before them. They lack the depth of assets to be big players on the deadline market, but in Blackburn, LHP Ty Blach and RHP Keury Mella, they possess some attractive arms that could land them a smaller piece.

– ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – Didn’t think I’d be saying this anytime soon, but the end of the Cards’ run might actually be on the horizon. The steady stream of quick-to-the-big-leagues high-round draftees seems to have at least temporarily paused. There is very little impact offensive potential apparent in the Cards’ full-season minors. Things are a little better on the pitching side, thanks in large part to the explosive breakthrough of now-injured RHP Alex Reyes. Can’t see him moving, but it will be interesting to see if they’d move ground-balling LHP Rob Kaminsky, their 2013 1st rounder, in a package for a big-league bat when push comes to shove.

– WASHINGTON NATIONALS – For many years now, the Nats’ minor-league system has been a quality over quantity zone. Only nine Nats qualified for my lists, but four were T100/T50 guys. Lucas Giolito, Joe Ross and Trea Turner aren’t going anywhere, and truth be told, the club’s biggest second-half acquisitions will be from the disabled list, where players like Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister have spent much of the season. Should the Nats make a splash as a buyer, their chief assets could include SS Wilmer Difo, freed up by the pickup of Turner at midseason, and RHPs Austin Voth and Reynaldo Lopez.