Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik: Howdy, folks

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for polling! I’m seeking out some new TV/Netflix programs, so feel free to send some recs …

Travis Sawchik: Now to baseball  …

Joe Douglas: Hi Travis, Happy Monday.

Travis Sawchik: Happy Monday, JD … Nice to see you at PitchTalks!

Leefoo: What is wrong with Gregory Polanco both offensively and defensively and can it be fixed? Also, Hurdle has come out and said that he has gotten tentative on defense due to his injuries. Thx!

Travis Sawchik: Lee! Nice to hear from you …. Polanco’s development has to be a major disappointment for the club. I think we saw what he’s capable in the first half last season, but injury has played a role and he looks like a player who has lost confidence and developed some poor habits

Travis Sawchik: I always thought LF in PNC Park was a poor fit given that he looked rather awkward in right, which is the easiest space to play there …. The good news is he doesn’t a Jason Heyward swing rebuild. But he’s got to be better and he can be

Daniel: Nick Markakis is closing in on 2000 hits. He has a legit shot at 3000, right?

Travis Sawchik: This is the last Markakis question  … ever

Joe Douglas: What’s the most difficult part of your job that most people don’t realize?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. I think consistency is a challenge. FG writers have to generate many ideas, and compared to life as a beat writer , there are not game stories and notebooks to lean on for bylines

Joey: How do you view Thames following his strong week last week?  Does it validate Injuries we’re slowing him down in May/June?

Travis Sawchik: There is always ebb and flow to a season. I don’t think Thames 2.0 is Barry Bonds. But I do think he’s going to continue to be really good. He had begun to expand his zone a little bit in May and June

DTH: Best show on TV/Streaming is Rick and Morty, no contest

Eric: American Gods should probably be in conversation for best show.  First season just wrapped and it was unbelievable

Travis Sawchik: I will add them to the list, thanks!

Jake: Do you think players like Nolan Arenado have significantly different approaches at home compared to on the road because of the park effects of their stadium? I was looking at his home/road splits which I know are always noisy but it looks like he’s had a much more patient approach away from Coors (.56 BB/K) ratio than in Coors (.28 BB/K). The patient approach looks like it’s working better

Travis Sawchik: I have never asked him … but BB/K splits always favor the home player (umpire bias!) … but those do seem a little extreme

Matty P: Jose Ramirez a write in vote for MVP. Especially if the Indians pull away with the divison. Lindor

Travis Sawchik: Ramirez had an incredible weekend and if there is such a thing as an under-rated player, he is probably one. He ranks 22nd among position players in WAR (6.8) since the start of 2016 …but he’s overshadowed on the left side of his own infield. His contract makes him one of the more valuable assets in the game

Hooha: If the Pirate’s trade Cole, would it make sense to move Felipe Rivero while his value is sky high as well?

Travis Sawchik: Only if you’re going into a DisAstros-like rebuild … Felipe has four years of control left. I’d keep him.

Joey: Streaming Options: The Americans, Silicon Valley, Goliath, The Wire…

Travis Sawchik: I was limiting it to current shows … The Wire is an all-timer, Americans was very strong until this last season …

Erbin Lejind: Bucs are hardly out of playoff pix so they cannot deal Cole.

Travis Sawchik: Same logic as to those wanting to hang onto Melancon

Travis Sawchik: Pirates believe in advancing to postseason in as many years as possible. With that logic, it probably makes sense to trade Cole and his two remaining years of service if there’s a quality offer out there. (And all contenders need pitching)

Sonny: Is there a fringe contender you could make a compelling case to sell? If the Mets decided everyone was on the table they could alter the SP market.

Travis Sawchik: Mets are one, Pirates are another … Rangers, Royals, Rays and Orioles

Travis Sawchik: One step back today, for two steps forward tomorrow. I’d be thinking that way

Larry: The Braves have the top farm system and everyone talks about its depth. So in this draft, they pretty much got three prospects — Kyle Wright, a HS OF and a HS RHP. The rest was cheap signs. Do you like that quality over quantity approach?

Travis Sawchik: I’m a quality/upside guy myself. I like what the Braves have done in taking on risk to chase upside

Daniel: If Nick Markakis finishes with more than 2500 career hits, he’ll be the only one of with 2500+ hits in the modern era who hasn’t received an AS Game nod or an MVP vote. Not a question. A fact.

Travis Sawchik: Still accepting Nick Markakis Facts

Bart: Andrew Miller picked up a save yesterday.  Is Francona thinking about using Miller more in the ninth or is this an anomaly?

Travis Sawchik: I didn’t catch the post-game presser for an explanation (and I can’t recall it the Twins had a number of lefties due up) but I believe he used Miller in the ninth on occasion last season, too

Tj: I feel like dodgers should piggyback starts more often. Better the giving Josh fields and hatcher the ball as often. And help to keep bullpen fresh

Travis Sawchik: I think we are headed that way ….

Travis Sawchik: Kershaw and the piggy-backs

Travis Sawchik: #NameABand

CamdenWarehouse: Cameron mentioned last week that he gets a lot of Markakis questions too.  I thought it was just Dan and then you got them when you moved to his old timeslot.

Travis Sawchik: There appears to be a true affinity for Markakis

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Netflix – Black Mirror.  It’s the most original and thought provoking show out there.

Neil: Mr. Robot

jon: Netflix- The Ranch

Travis Sawchik: Gotta try anything that involves Sam Elliott. 80 voice. … I was ‘meh’ on Mr. Robot

Sonny: Suggested Rockies Poll Question: ‘Does the first Rockie to win the NL Cy Young currently play in their system somewhere?’

Travis Sawchik: That is a tough mountain to climb …. I’d vote ‘No’

Travis Sawchik: Now, 20 years from now with the BBWAA voting electorate has changed dramatically …. then I can see it

Bart: who would you rather own in a dynasty league Todd Frazier or Joey Gallo?

Travis Sawchik: Gallo

botchatheny:

Travis Sawchik: He’s so good

Bart: When is the right time to pick up Marte if he’s still available?

Travis Sawchik: Probably right now. Leave this chat room and go to your add/drop page

Ryan: What has Jimmy Nelson changed about himself that has made him so effective this year and is it sustainable?

Travis Sawchik: Jeff wrote about Lord Nelson last week …. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-might-have-an-actual-ace/

Travis Sawchik: Obviously, all the credit to August Fagerstrom regarding Nelson and Thames and Sogard #FGalum

Terry’s Sarape: Have you ever picked a team in the draft and did a mock for just that team based on the actual draft –  who was available each round when they picked and who you would have picked at that slot?  Maybe for the first several rounds?  It’s an interesting exercise…

Travis Sawchik: In my earlier years I did this all the time with Cleveland pro teams, I second-guessed all the GMs all the time

Robbie: How do you not have Game of Thones as an option?

Travis Sawchik: R-rated Dungeons and Dragons? I will pass

Babe Lincoln: Woah, why the polls?

Travis Sawchik: Spicing things up around here!

Robbie: With the spiked ball revolution, do we have to change how we evaluate prospects? If guys like Winker, who have great contact but are lacking power, can suddenly get another 5-10HR in the bigs, does that elevate their prospect status? Or does the league-wide nature of it mitigate that increase?

Travis Sawchik: Interesting question! It does change how we evaluate prospects. I think we start by evaluating swings and identifying players that could make changes … that are not fully tapping into raw power, like, say, Yandy Diaz in Cleveland

Matt: Would you vote for Lovullo or Black for NL MOY?

Travis Sawchik: I do have a NL MOY vote this year …. And they are the early front-runners, imo

bob loblaw: Hey TS – thanks again for the chat.  I am strugling with avg and RBIs (thanks to odor, c davis, story, villar, etc…).  can you think of any guys i should target in trades?    i know this is pretty vague but i also don’t want to give you my entire roster and ask where i should upgrade.

DFLAH: Hey Travis, I’m sitting on Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Santana and Rougned Odor. They are just holding up roster spots at this point although Rougned has shown signs of life lately.  Any hope for these guys to produce at career average level here on out?

Travis Sawchik: I generally try to be pretty patient with struggling guys, most guys will eventually perform … You wouldn’t have wanted to have dumped  Edwin Encarnacion two weeks ago

Matt: Sam Elliot is the white Morgan Freeman, as far as voices go.

Travis Sawchik: Yep. Two 80 grades

Trades: Haven’t heard a whole lot about the Reds trade options (probably because i haven’t been looking). Who do you think is most likely dealt there?

Travis Sawchik: I think one issue is, and I believe Buster Olney had this in his notes Sunday, is that there isn’t much a market among contenders for position players

Jonathan Lucroy: what the heck happened to my power?!

Travis Sawchik: And your framing!

Travis Sawchik: Last I checked, Lucroy was last in baseball in framing at BP

Andrew Allen: RE: Andrew Miller/Cody Allen: Wasn’t listening to the broadcast so can’t say I heard it first hand, but Hammy apparently said Allen had asked to switch roles with Miller to lighten Miller’s workload (https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/news/120630/cody-allen-asks-to-switch-…)

Travis Sawchik: Interesting. Miller has been worked pretty heavily. Maybe Miller’s unselfishness (helps that he has a big-money deal) is trickling down to the rest of the pen? Allen is a good dude.

ted: are you from  Cleveland

Travis Sawchik: I am a native of the east suburbs

Sam: What do you make of Jake Arrieta’s value this upcoming offseason? How do teams parse between what Boras will want, based on the two previous seasons, and the form he’s shown this season which is reminiscent of his pre-Chicago tenure?

Travis Sawchik: We could be waiting awhile on Arrieta to sign … He’s going to be a fascinating case

Greg: What grade would you give the Atlanta front office during their tenure? I know everyone likes the system ranking, but man they really screwed up the Kimbrel trade, Simmons trade and Alex Wood trade.

Travis Sawchik: Not all the trades have worked out but I love the overall philosophy of hunting upside and throwing any fear of uncertainty to a hurricane-force wind

Cullen: Is Rich Hill finished as a dominant pitcher?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think so. Everyone thought he was finished years ago … I think he can make an adjustment with healthy. Seems to be mostly a location issues at the moment ….he’s also been side-tracked by the blister issue

Jay: 2 part question: appears as if Indians may need to add an SP at the deadline. Barring a Cole/Gray deal, the SPs that would come from the teams on your “likely sellers” list are uninspiring, would the Indians be better off adding yet another good bullpen arm to maybe offset a rotation issue? If they did, what names could they target?

Travis Sawchik: I’m keeping my eye on Trevor Bauer. I think he might be in the midst of taking a step forward with increased curveball usage, velocity ticking up….He was excellent Sunday at Twins

Travis Sawchik: Salazar could get it figured out, too. I wouldn’t be paying the prospect treasure required for Cole if I’m the Indians

Rob: Rather have Paxton or Kluber in a dynasty format (albeit a win-now team)?

Travis Sawchik: Kluber

Sean: Wanna know something amazing? The Dbacks have gone 22-8 without AJ Pollock. Yet, during these 30 games, they have gained two games on Colorado and ZERO games on the Dodgers. The NL West is ridiculous.

Travis Sawchik: The NL West is the best thing going in baseball right now …. I’d love to see a Rockies-Diamondbacks wild card game (Or LAD vs. either)

CamdenWarehouse: What is your approach for voting for manager of the year?  Is it the normal team wasn’t expected to be good and then was approach?

Travis Sawchik: I guess you are trying to make a guess about value-added in terms of wins …. but jumping from, say, 60 to 80 wins is less meaningful than jumping from 75 to 90 and into the postseason

Joe Douglas: Enough baseball talk, we want to hear about HBD. Give the people what they want.

Travis Sawchik: Ha. I have my doubts on how many people want that. But I would recommend Hardball Dynasty to everyone that wants to spend less time with their families

King Felix: Expectations when I return from injury this Friday?

Travis Sawchik: Muted

PD: Did you watch Breaking Bad? If so, Better Call Saul has a decent amount of nostalgia with some of the cameos/call outs.

Travis Sawchik: Breaking Bad is a first-ballot HoF

Harper: It’s been rumored that Harper will likely be looking at 15 year offers in the $40M per year range. 15 years seems insane for a club to commit to one player. Is it just the idea that they’ll likely get at least 7 great years out of him and a better shot at at least 1 title? That could end up handcuffing the club that lands him for a long time.

Travis Sawchik: Why not just give Harper the franchise and have him pay the owner? 15 years would stretch beyond my comfort zone, but he is a special talent

Kristen: Aside from Darvish, TEX has Hamels, Ross, and Cashner as SP’s they could make available for trades.  Think TEX dumps everyone or do they go for a soft rebuild and trade just a few guys?

Travis Sawchik: I’d be more aggressive since I don’t think the Astros are going anywhere for a while

baby bull : is there a way to see which hitters change the incoming velocity of the pitch the most? i.e. batter hits a 95mph fastball @ 105mph for a difference of 10mph

Travis Sawchik: According to the various studies out there, pitch velocity does not have much to do with exit velocity

Cool Hand Lucroy: Will Gallo ever be better than the hitter he is now?  I mean he’s 23, but I don’t know how much we can expect him to improve his contact

Travis Sawchik: He might never be more than a Russell Branyan-type, but what if he can make a Judge-like adjustment? I’d be patient with him

Matt: Regarding Miller in the 9th – I think the point of why this type of usage is great is because it doesn’t tie someone into a specific inning the same way it doesn’t disqualify someone from a particular inning.

Travis Sawchik: I love seeing managers be creative and free of just mindlessly plugging in arms to various innings

Sonny: Yoan Moncada is running pretty darn good but not otherworldly numbers in AAA and FG projections have him playing 34 games with Chicago this year with roughly 1 WAR per 600 PA pace. This seems low but just looking at his stat line he’s not hitting for the type of power I maybe wrongly assumed he’d display this year. Am I letting physique fool me into seeing a 25+ HR 2B that might not exist?

Travis Sawchik: Good chance he matures into more power (See: Lindor) and a 22-year-old 2B with a .160  ISO in Triple-A isn’t terrible. Approach and barrel skills more important at this stage, imo

Slapshot: When you attend a baseball game in person, where in the stadium do you prefer to sit?

Travis Sawchik: Always the lower bowl because the new generation of ballparks has ruined the upper deck http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-generation-of-ballparks-is-push…

Guest: Do you think Kyle Hendricks’s finger injury was hurting his velocity? When he comes back should I expect great things?

Travis Sawchik: Cubs hope it is as simple as that

David: If Kershaw opts out after next season how does that impact Machado and Harper? They would all be free agents in the same offseason.

Travis Sawchik: There is no question he should opt out, right? That’s going to be the best FA class of all time, at least as far as top end quality. I think enough teams are probably eyeing it that their markets will be just fine

Wrister: I flipped Moncada and Cole for Trea Turner in our keeper league. Good deal or a little too steep

Travis Sawchik: Little steep

Simple Jack: Who do you like better coming off injury, Homer Bailey or Brandon Finnegan?

Travis Sawchik: Finnegan (I think). I love the stuff. Two great pitches if he can just improve that command a little bit

Tyler: Is it realistic to think the Astros could compete in the playoffs and not go after a front line starting pitcher? Keuchel, McCullers and Morton sound pretty good to me.

Travis Sawchik: Sure, if they’re all healthy

Big Tuna: The fact that Homeland was on that list is insulting to the other shows. This was its first good season in four years.

Travis Sawchik: Homeland is great

Marichal: Do you expect Lewis Brinson to get it going this year, or does he get sent back down when Braun is ready?

Travis Sawchik: The tough think about this era of Trout/Kris Bryant/Lindor, etc (Gary Sanchez, lol) is our expectations for immediate success have been warped

Sean: This is your daily reminder that scouts/analysts nearly universally overlooked Paul Goldschmidt and now he’s one of the absolutely best players in the game, maybe the best healthy player at the moment.

Travis Sawchik: Craig just wrote about him being the best player in the world right now … So he’s not overlooked at FG. It would be cool to see Goldy on an extended postseason stage

Coaching: How much of the Phillies’ problems are rooted in coaching? Mackanin got extended and he doesn’t seem to be getting results. Bob McClure just seems like a dope and the phillies young pitchers have really regressed.

Travis Sawchik: I have no idea, really … but I do think coaching/development gets way overlooked compared to scouting. We put so many of the draft successes and busts in the scouts/scouting director

Matt: Regarding lower bowl vs upper deck – I’m a big fan of the upper deck. I think it gives a better angle of view than the lower bowl, AND tends to be much cheaper. Better experience-to-price ratio is gravy!

Travis Sawchik: I love Wrigley’s upper deck, PNC Park’s isn’t bad … but too many are too far removed from sights/sounds of the game in the name of luxury-box layers and no obstructed seating

Big Tuna: Homeland is Ryan Zimmerman: started off the career at the top, had some down years where it was irrelevant due to poor choices (injury), and now seems to be experiencing a resurgence.

Travis Sawchik: Most pro players would sign up for the Ryan Zimmerman career

baby bull : I understand pitch velocity does not correlate with EV, but EV correlates with hitters. So which hitter consistently adds the most exit velocity to the pitch velocity per type of pitch? I know a 75 mph curve and a 100 mph fastball can be hit for 105mph EV but who changes curveballs velocity the most, who changes fastball velocity the most.

Travis Sawchik: I see. I’m not sure that metric exists ..,.

Anon: Hot take:  Fantasy questions,  while easy to answer, are boring to everyone beside the questioner. If you do a poll there will be 80% agreement.

Travis Sawchik: Next week there will be a poll

capconstrained: Where do we stand on the Sanchez debate this week?

Travis Sawchik: Sorry, that post was set to self-destruct after seven days

Hatzis: There has been a rumor floating around over the last day or so that the Cardinals might be looking at Avisail Garcia. Just doing a cursory look at his numbers, I see that he’s cut his K% a bit, but his BB% has also gone down and he’s riding a .404 BABIP. Is there a reason for people to “buy in” on Garcia’s career year? Any particular changes that might point to this really being a turning point for a 26 year old guy?

Travis Sawchik: I haven’t looked too deeply but there does seem to be some buzz … doesn’t seem to be a great market for position players

Anon: If Yankees implode this year, could they become sellers again at the trade deadline, or have they already tasted too much of the sweet, sweet nectar of success?

Travis Sawchik: Too much nectar, and I don’t see a reason for them to believe this team can’t compete even if it cooled in July

Joe Douglas: (Re Fantasy questions.) Some are actually very interesting. They just can’t be framed in the context of a team. Are the changes player x is displaying sustainable? That’s a fantasy question.

Travis Sawchik: Interesting suggestion!

Travis Sawchik: Joe gets the last word today.

Travis Sawchik: There will more polling next week so the people can be heard

Travis Sawchik: Until then, be good and do good