Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Don’t be sad the 2017 season is over, friends …

Travis Sawchik: Be glad it happened

Travis Sawchik: Now, on to 2018 …

Tim: So what’s your off-season sports drug of choice?

Travis Sawchik: It’s such a dark period in my life

Travis Sawchik: My favorite non-MLB event is the NCAA men’s basketball tournament if you consider spring training to be offseason

Travis Sawchik: I will watch NFL but not with the zeal I once did

PF: Probably a stupid question, but when does the offseason start?

Travis Sawchik: Free agents can begin signing with other clubs at 5 p.m. eastern today, so in about five hours

Robert: What do you think Hosmer gets in free agency compared to what you think he’s actually worth?

Travis Sawchik: If Hosmer would stop pounding the ball into the ground 2.5 GB/FB ratio he could really be something

Travis Sawchik: But he hasn’t shown a willingness or ability to do it … but I suspect there’s more in there

Travis Sawchik: I think he’ll get more than his 3-year performance suggests he should

Travis Sawchik: And he’s only entering his Age 28 season. So he could get a bunch of years at, say, $25m aav

Robert: If you are Kansas City would you trade Whit Merrifield?

Travis Sawchik: If I’m the Royals I would go for a total rebuild, so, yeah, I’d look at moving anyone of value for as much future surplus value as possible

Travis Sawchik: Merrifield’s value may never be greater than it is right now

Guest: when assessing trade package values, is there an industry standard discount rate applied to prospect production/value?

Travis Sawchik: I would think each club approaches it slightly differently, but, yeah there’s probably something along the lines of your premise

Grimace: Should the Indians look to move Yan Gomes this winter?

Travis Sawchik: I could see it … unless they think Mejia is not really a catcher

Travis Sawchik: Mejia has been getting some looks at third base

CamdenWarehouse: I thought the offseason started the minute the final game ended?  Free agency is what begins today.

Travis Sawchik: I suppose it depends on what you consider the five-day “quiet period” to be

Nelson: If Vlad Jr can hit an MLB home run in the 2018 season, he’ll be the youngest Blue Jay to ever homer, beating out a 37 year old record owned by the current Boston Celtics GM

Travis Sawchik: Who knew!

Matty P: Thoughts on Brantley and Tomlins options being picked up for the Tribe?

Travis Sawchik: Tomlin’s was going to get picked up. He’s still a cheap strike-thrower .. the Brantley decision ($12 million) option was more questionable

Travis Sawchik: If he’s healthy, Brantley should easily produce enough surplus value to justify the contract … But will he be healthy? With with a number of pre-arb replacements on the 40-man, could the Indians have better spent that money elsewhere?

Travis Sawchik: I think Indians are going to be between $120-$130 million entering the offseason just on guaranteed contracts and projected arbitration numbers. Probably not a ton of budget to work with

noleadisconfortable: With a bunch of money off the books(though it all won’t be spent) and lots of needs what do the Mets do this offseason?

Travis Sawchik: Mets are an interesting juncture … The staff has the upside to lead it back to relevance, but with so many question marks I could see justifying tearing down, too. I have no idea what the Mets will do

Joe: Do you think the difference between smart teams and not-so-smart teams is now bigger than ever? I’m thinking along the lines of Astros/Dodgers/Indians vs Tigers/Marlins

Travis Sawchik: I think the gap is smaller since just about every team has analytics and is valuing players in similar ways. There are exceptions. I think payroll and spending power is going to become more important in the coming years than it has been over the last decade plus

Dmitry: For a time like the Yankees, or another stacked AL team.. would you prefer a dedicated DH (ie Santana), or rotate position players to give them rest?

Travis Sawchik: If I can get a stud bat, I would prefer just to plug him into the DH spot, though I know teams prize versatility. Re: Santana, he’s actually become a pretty good 1B (10 DRS!) adding to his value.

CamdenWarehouse: There is a lot of talk about a Darvish/Ohtani link in free agency.  Are the two actually close or is this just assumed because they’re both Japanese?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t know how close they but I could see having a countryman in the clubhouse being attractive if you are going to work in a foreign country

CubFan: You expecting any type of sophomore slump in either Bregman or Benintendi?

Travis Sawchik: I think Bregman will put up a better overall line and I’m not too worried about Benintendi. I love the swing and approach

Rusty Dusty: Is Santana the most underrated free agent this season? He’s been better and more consistent than Hosmer the last 3 seasons, but will very likely get a lot less money.

Travis Sawchik: I love Santana and now he’s playing above-average defense … and the plate discipline is something you can count on every year (and he’s been really durable)

Travis Sawchik: I think there should be a decent market for Santana, which is probably another reason the Indians picked up Brantley

Travis Sawchik: Interestingly, Antonetti mentioned Brantley had some minor league experience playing 1B when speaking to reporters last week

ssf: Darvish and Ohtani are actually friends and train together in the offseason

Travis Sawchik: FWIW

CamdenWarehouse: Do you think Stanton is traded and if so who do you see as the favorite?

Frank Thomas: The Padres would have to give up _________ to get Stanton?

Silly Beane: As Dave noted in his off-season movers-and-shakers piece, the Cardinals need to consolidate their 40 man roster.  Do you think we could see a Stanton deal at the GM meetings next week?

Travis Sawchik: I do think Stanton is going to eventually be traded ….whether it’s this offseason or down the road. Cardinals might be a candidate. Basically any team with a number of prospects and budget space is a contender

Travis Sawchik: Stanton’s value is somewhat tricky to evaluate with the contract and how will he age? I’d have more interest as an AL team with the DH to fall back on

YKnotDisco?!: At least the Browns didn’t lose this weekend, eh?

Travis Sawchik: Ha. Well, it’s in the Browns best interest to lose. The Browns have been on the Astros’ plan since 1999, they just haven’t executed as well

Craner: What “bargain bin” deals in free agency would you be most interested in?

Travis Sawchik: I need to dig into this a little more but if you want to drill really deep I like Francisco Liriano converted to a reliever

Kendre: Should the Dodgers pick up Forsythe’s option? Or do you see them slotting Taylor at 2b and trying the Joc/Kiké thing in CF again?

Travis Sawchik: The option is only $8.5m, so they’ll pick up up … he was still a 1.7 WAR player last season and he could very well be better in 2018

Travis Sawchik: Taylor gives the club a lot of versatility

Forrest: When are free agent predictions coming out?

Travis Sawchik: Good question!

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think you’ll have to wait too long

Robert: Who wins the World Series next year?

Travis Sawchik: Can’t we just enjoy the offseason first? haha

Travis Sawchik: Astros, Dodgers, Indians, Yankees, Nats are my top five right now

Travis Sawchik: Not exactly going out on a limb

stever20: how cool would it be if baseball had a 1st day of free agency similar  to what we see in the other sports?

Travis Sawchik: It would be nice to have a little more activity early, but the slow burn is perhaps good for the sport because  it provides intrigue fuel for months

RMR: Any chance the Dodgers make a run at Stanton?  They’re at a point where it’s increasingly difficult to upgrade the roster.  Stanton represents that upgrade and they’re almost uniquely capable of taking the financial risk.

Travis Sawchik: That would be fun … And, yeah, it’s becoming tough to upgrade a lot of areas on the LAD roster, for sure

Babe Lincoln: Do FG and MLBTR compete to see whose FA predictions are more accurate?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not aware of an actual scoreboard, but I’ m sure someone is keeping track. It’s always nice to be the most accurate.

Michelle: So where would be the coolest place for Otani to end up?

Travis Sawchik: Angels?

Travis Sawchik: Big market (good for MLB)… and helps get Trout into October

Travis Sawchik: Seattle would be kind of cool: A Paxton-Otani combo

Travis Sawchik: I’d like to see him added to a team that’s fringe contender

CamdenWarehouse: I really don’t want to see everybody sign on day one.  I don’t want to be deprived of the next two months of baseball news distracting me from two months of Christmas.

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I

Travis Sawchik: ‘m good with the slow burn

Rusty Dusty: What are your major award predictions?

Travis Sawchik: Kluber/Scherzer/Judge/Stanton

Little Poison: Should the Indians pay Santana at 1B again?  Will they?  Do you think he’s good for 3wins for the next three years?

Travis Sawchik: Indians will miss him if he departs, I suspect the Brantley option suggests they think Santana is going to get paid. Plus, Indians already have a sizeable $$$ commitment to DH. Not sure they want to wrap up 25 percent of their budget to DH and first base

DJ: For a long time I’ve believed injury prevention/generating peak performance is the next way teams will gain competitive advantages. With the Mariners hiring a “Director of Player Performance” and other teams presumably following suit, I was wondering what trend may be next for teams to adopt early.

Travis Sawchik: I think that’s a big area of focus right now and there’s still a lot to be done there. So I think that’s still the big thing

Silly Beane: If you were running the A’s what would you do this winter?  Are they at a -wait-for-talent-to-mature place? or should they deal Lowrie and lock up Davis?

Travis Sawchik: Go get Ohtani!

B: The Red Sox need a 1B. I would love to see them go after Carlos Santana, but I’m afraid they are going to be in the running for Eric Hosmer. Do you think they sign a free agent 1B, or do they run it back with Moreland?

Travis Sawchik: Alonso is out there, too

Travis Sawchik: Hosmer is gonna be a Nat, right?
😉

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Thoughts on Tanaka’s NOT-opt-out?  Seems like the safe play, but I think he could have gotten one more year, or more money over the same time frame.

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I was kind of surprised. But, then again it’s probably a little terrifying to turn down tens of millions of dollars …and the elbow concern lingers. I suspect the Yankees are happy with the decision

Levant: Where do you think Darvish Yu is going to end up in?

Travis Sawchik: Cubs

Crickets: Was Judge’s performance really head-n-shoulders above Altuve’s, though?

Travis Sawchik: I would have voted for Altuve but I think the dingers will win the day in a close race

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Is Georgia Roddy the AL MOTR?  If so, is he destined to become the answer to the trivia question, “Who is the only manager to win the MOTR award in both leagues and be let go in the same years?”

Travis Sawchik: Couple things: I began a Google search typing in “Georgia …

Travis Sawchik: And I totally forgot Girardi managed the Marlins

DJ: Thoughts on Gabe Kapler? His introductory conference impressed me, but he may just be a good talker. He seems like someone who could rub players the wrong way (I’m sure some players in the Dodgers system may agree). Do you think his pros (analytics, intensity, intelligence) outweigh his cons (overbearing, lack of experience, odd intrigue with coconut oil) ?

Travis Sawchik: I like the hire. If you’re trying to tap more into performance and getting more out of players, I think Kapler could be a great fit

Travis Sawchik: It’s certainly inspired

YKnotDisco?!: If Morton was 2017, who is 2018?

Travis Sawchik: I think 2018 is going to be an extension of 2017, only more extreme

Clyde: Thoughts on what the Dodgers should do with Grandal?

Travis Sawchik: Wait for a great return, and if it never arrives keep your 9 WARP catching combo

Rusty Dusty: Is paying for clubhouse presence overrated? For example, giving more money to Hosmer because he’s a good clubhouse guy.

Travis Sawchik: I think it matters to a degree … but does anyone have a good handle on the value? Performance value is mostly what I would be comfortable paying for

Travis Sawchik: Maybe 90 percent performance/10 percent intangible?

Babe Lincoln: Forget the length, doesn’t $25m AAV for Hosmer seem nuts?  It values him at ~3 WAR over the length of the deal, yet he’s never strung together back-to-back 1 WAR seasons, and averages ~2 WAR over the past 4 seasons (Ages 25-28).  Gonna be a massive overpay on AAV *and* years, no?

Travis Sawchik: I feel like the Hosmer brand is stronger than the actual product

ThatsNotMyMonster: Can we all remember Bregman’s throw in ALCS Game 7 real quick? That was a ridiculous throw!

Travis Sawchik: Sorry but we’ve moved on to 2018 concerns!

Little Poison: What does a big contract (in terms of AAV) look like for a DH/1B?  In recent years, $15M/yr for 3 years would be a pretty big contract unless you were Votto or Goldy, right?

Travis Sawchik: There’s been some reluctance to pay for bat-first players (See: Encarnacion)

Travis Sawchik: But now with fewer balls being put in play, and the scoring environment up, I think bats will fare a little better this offseason

Travis Sawchik: Maybe I will be completely wrong, but JD Martinez and Carlos Santana can really impact a team and lineup

Alan: Let’s say the Cardinals do trade for Stanton. Maybe Luke Weaver is part of the package. Does this get them close enough to Chicago for hopes of a division title race, or just more safely in the wild card hunt?

Travis Sawchik: Chicago’s pitching situation is pretty uncertain … so I’d be aggressive in StL

Travis Sawchik: The overall division landscape is not that daunting in 2018

Oh-hey-oh-hey-hey: I’m a Red Sox fan. What are the odds Dombrowski does something stupid like shelling out $150 million for Eric Hosmer?

Travis Sawchik: I could see it

DJ: Do you see any under-the-radar free agents this offseason who could benefit a team in the way Charlie Morton did for Houston?

Travis Sawchik: We have some projects in the works here at FG!

Rusty Dusty: Who will be the biggest star to be traded this offseason?

Travis Sawchik: Stanton … if he’s traded

Babe Lincoln: What do you miss about being on a team beat?  What do you prefer about working at FG?

Travis Sawchik: I do not miss deadline writing every night and rain delays … I do miss the press box camaraderie and some of the travel. At FG, I love that there’s an entire industry to cover and there are rarely bad ideas to explore

Lunar verLander: In general, which is more difficult: predicting where free agents will sign, or who will win the end-of-season awards?

Travis Sawchik: Free agents

Foo: Do the Astros add a bat during the Winter?

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get Stanton to the Astros

Michelle: Other than Big Data Baseball, what’s a baseball book you’d recommend to get us through the long offseason?

Travis Sawchik: So much great writing out there right now … But Ball Four is a must read if you haven’t

stever20: but doesn’t a lot of the activity run into the holidays and then the football playoffs?

Travis Sawchik: The holidays used to be an unspoken ceasefire … not as much anymore. I don’t think football plays overshadow signings

Kendre: Manfred has denied any tomfoolery but would you be surprised if the players arrive to work in 2018 and all the balls are suddenly the 2014 model?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think MLB wants a return to the 2014 environment but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the standards tightened

Jay: Pretty clear the Indians won’t be retaining Bryan Shaw. Even if they re-sign Joe Smith, wouldn’t it make sense to use Danny Salazar in a relief role? With Tomlin coming back they have more than 5 SPs and Allen/Miller are FA’s after 2018.

Travis Sawchik: I really want to see Salazar in a bullpen role. I think he could excel there and maybe stay healthier

Travis Sawchik: I’d love to see him deployed like Devinski

B: Should the Red Sox try and trade for Yasmani Grandal? They can’t continue to ignore the catcher position.

Travis Sawchik: If I’m a team in need of a catcher, I’d make an offer for Grandal

Mysterion: Something about Boston’s front office situation depresses me. Dave Dombrowski is doing Dave Dombrowski things, the farm system is depleted, and it appears it’ll be another winter of large spending for players who probably aren’t worth it (Hosmer). Sure, they have a young core that Theo and Ben built – but I still tend to believe the Dombrowski hiring cut their viable years to compete without a rebuild from 7-8 years to maybe 5. Not sure why such a progressive front office is getting so much older (La Russa, Wren) and backwards.

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I think the Red Sox might have been better off by holding onto their young talent and supplementing via FA. The window has been reduced. The tough thing is Sale is so good, if he goes Bumgarner in a postseason the price is worth it.

James: How scary would the astros be with Stanton aiming at the Crawford Boxes?

Travis Sawchik: That and he’s have an easier time with the opposite field

Oakland: They should contract the Montreal franchise.

Travis Sawchik: Contract an HBD flagship?

Lunar verLander: Do you see the Astros having a relatively quiet offseason?

Travis Sawchik: Typically it’s tough to upgrade a WS winning roster

Travis Sawchik: So, yeah, probably more quiet than loud

Colt Holt: Is the fact that Votto rarely comes up in MVP discussion (despite repeatedly being the best pure hitter in the game) evidence he is among the most underrated and unappreciated players of this generation? Would it be different if he played his games in pinstripes?

Travis Sawchik: That’s a logical and rational position … I really want to see Votto in October

Clyde: Pirates feel like a team on the fringe. Are they destined to end up in that 75-83 win purgatory zone or could you see them competing/tanking?

Travis Sawchik: They are in that middle-ground. If enough things go right (everything went wrong in 2017), I could see them in wild-card picture in 2018

Oakland: Death to the Sacre Bleu.

Travis Sawchik: This is what I deal with in my private HBD life, folks

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Fun bit of trivia: For MLB players that went by Gabe (at least as searchable by FanGraphs) – Kapler actually only finished with the second most WAR! Care to guess who finished ahead of him?

Outta my way, Gyorkass: It’s Gabe Gross, shockingly

Travis Sawchik: Fun fact time!

Little Poison: Is someone like Keon Broxton a good trade target?  Do you think he has hope of curbing the K%?

Travis Sawchik: I’m still on the Keon bandwagon

Terry’s Sarape: In all this free-agent and Stanton discussion, what’s one other “TRADE” that could/should happen this winter?

Travis Sawchik: Cubs should do something with that position player log jam

stever20: Isn’t counting on Sale in the postseason kind of foolish though, given his 2nd half struggles typically?

Travis Sawchik: Sale is a guy who might need to be handled more carefully in regular season

CamdenWarehouse: At least Oakland isn’t saying Montreal are Disappointments

Travis Sawchik: Plus 1

MIke: Can you explain the Tyler Glasnow mystery – will he ever make it as a starter or would he be more effective as a reliever?

Travis Sawchik: I’d work him in as a reliever

Travis Sawchik: Such a frustrating player, but not the type you want to give up on before you have to

stever20: for what teams is this offseason the most important for?

Travis Sawchik: Cardinals, Red Sox, Cubs, Marlins, Angels

Ryan: Whats with some Steamer projections being an incredibly low number of games? Examples include J.D. Martinez only playing 81 games and Jay Bruce playing just 16…

Travis Sawchik: I think we are working through some playing time issues related to free agents

ATCQ: Pirates listen on Cole?

Travis Sawchik: Yes, but I think they’ll probably wait and see how the first three months go

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for the questions everyone. Happy offseason, it should be a fascinating one

Travis Sawchik: I will be back next week. Hopefully, some interesting things have happened. Until then, be good and do good