Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Hi

Travis Sawchik: The offseason is technically over … but yet it warmed up over the weekend

Travis Sawchik: Go figure!

Travis Sawchik: Let’s talk about it …

Q-Ball: Chris Tillman back to the O’s felt inevitable, and turns out it was…

Joe: The biggest news of the last week, obviously, is that Chris Tillman just signed with Baltimore. What’s the chance he rebounds to be something better than a complete disaster?

Travis Sawchik: DC is calling for a 5.25 ERA and I don’t see a lot of reason to be optimistic

Travis Sawchik: Tough being an extreme fly-ball guy in this day and age, and in Camden Yards and the AL East , especially if the stuff has ticked down (as it has)

Gerbil King: Would a 9 man BP be an absolutely crazy idea for the Phillies to try with their lack of starters who go more than 5-6 innings?

Travis Sawchik: Yes

Travis Sawchik: If we had 27-man rosters then I could see it

Fat Matt: I ended up working on a company holiday.  It’s nice to not have to be secretive about following FG chats since nobody can see what I’m doing

Travis Sawchik: Are you alone in a cubicle, Matt?

Zonk: Find a home for Mike Moustakas.  Where can he go?  The Moose is Loose!

Travis Sawchik: There is no obvious fit for poor Moose. Atlanta makes some sense, Philly if they doubt Franco (but I guess he gets another look) …

Travis Sawchik: Cozart and Frazier took two available openings, Yankees want to stay under the cap, sorry, tax threshold

Travis Sawchik: KC!

Secret Moose: How quickly can the Tampa Bay Rays become the new Montreal Expos or Portland Somethings?

Travis Sawchik: Didn’t the Rays just decide upon their new stadium site in Ybor city?

Travis Sawchik: https://www.draysbay.com/2018/2/9/16994954/tampa-bay-rays-new-stadium-…

Travis Sawchik: I hate to see teams relocated but the Rays and Tampa need to figure out this stadium deal

Grant: Thoughts on Bregman exceeded expectations this year?

Travis Sawchik: I think his second half is a harbinger of big things to come… so quick inside, Crawford boxes, love it

Stars and Scrubs: We have seen (most of) the best non-JDM players and relievers sign, and some lower tier players. Will the remaining QO free agents likely end up being the last to sign?

Travis Sawchik: The QO is not helping players like Moustakas, for sure, even if a first-rounder is no longer attached. It’s another element working against some players

Erik: What do you make of the structure of the Hosmer deal? Frontloading the money with an opt-out and a lower-AAV second section seems extraordinarily sensible and fair to me. Could you see some of the big deals next offseason following that blueprint?

Travis Sawchik: The back-end seems like an insurance policy for Hosmer in case he continues being the player he has been since 2014, when he’s been 0.1 fWAR better than Lucas Duda  … If he makes a swing chance and improves his overall production and consistency this is a five-year deal

Travis Sawchik: But in a vacuum, I do like the creative nature of the deal … and paying more for a player’s peak than his decline

Dominic: Do you know of a good source that has data about international amateur signings?  Preferably one that can be sorted by year or by team.

Travis Sawchik: Data? Or just any information? Baseball America has the best signings database

Steve Diego: Can you tell me if I’m being a delusional Padres fan? I think signing Hosmer to a 5/100 deal is a pretty good deal. At $9M/WAR, he only has to average +2.2 WAR per season, which is reasonable given his ~.350 xwOBA. Then he either opts out, well after Urias and Tatis have come up, or doesn’t and we’re on the hook for $13M a year, which is less than guys like Beltran and Cargo got to not contribute to playoff teams last year. Also, while Myers’ COF defensive is a question mark, we now have a ton of major league ready depth (even if it’s quantity over quality) that we can use to fill other holes without touching our top prospects. All in all, we signed a good player to a reasonable contract and kept our minor league bounty untouched.

Travis Sawchik: First, despite the weather, SD might not be the easiest place to recruit to given the general lack of winning in an often forgotten baseball market, and the Padres have money to spend ….

Travis Sawchik: So they got someone to take it

Travis Sawchik: And the Hosmer deal has upside if he can become a more consistent player — and/or — learns to improve his batted-ball profile

Travis Sawchik: So it’s not the worst FA deal even, particularly given his age

Travis Sawchik: But I hate to make an eight-year commitment to a 1B who ranks 12th in WAR since 2014 at his position and who has about the same career launch angle as Dee Gordon

Travis Sawchik: Hosmer was Dave Cameron’s No. 1 free agent landmine … and the Padres still signed him for more dollars than predicted. I feel like Boras probably executed another end around the front office

He Hate Me: Several teams have broached the subject of the 6-man rotation but would piggy-backing at the 5th starter spot be a better idea, to see if one guy can win the job outright? Also it doesn’t force the ace to make fewer starts. Would it make sense for a guy like Ohtani (or really any Japanese import) to piggy-back in April/May in order to ease into a 5-day schedule? To me, throwing 3 guys for 3 IP each might be even better, as one or more of them could be available for an inning or two between “starts” and you get three chances to unearth a breakout guy instead of two. Thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: I think we’ll see more teams experiment with piggy-back starters. I think the overall trend is going to be more rest, fewer innings

Jimbo: Does the humidor news have an impact on JD Martinez’s signing? Do you think he takes a deal with Boston?

Travis Sawchik: No and I think he ends up in Boston

He Hate Me: Given that pitchers have a higher injury risk than hitters, does it make sense to focus more on hitters in the draft and then trade some of your seasoned hitting prospects (some of whom might be blocked) for young pitchers that have avoided injury in their first few seasons? This seems to be the opposite of what the Braves have done (closer to what the Cubs are doing?).

Travis Sawchik: It makes a lot of sense if you’re a large-market club and can fill in voids in free agency

Travis Sawchik: And it still is probably the side to err on regardless of market size,  and trade some bats for arms

He Hate Me: I don’t know if it’s officially collusion but every front office is now arguing that free agents should be paid based on the amount of WAR they’re liable to generate, whereas they simultaneously pay pre-arb and even arb guys a fraction of their true WAR value. They already had their cake (cheap control of young players) and now they want to eat it too (squeeze veteran salaries). When one side unilaterally decides that it’s going to change the way it values veteran players, without changing how they value younger players, it’s no wonder there’s such discord right now. I blame stats nerds.

Travis Sawchik: Stat nerds are playing a role … maybe the MLBPA needs more nerds

E: I don’t know what we as baseball fans/analysts want. We bitch and moan about the quiet offseason, the Padres finally sign somebody and we talk about how dumb/pointless it is for them. The top free agents have to sign somewhere, they can’t all be on a handful of contenders. I give props to the Padres for trying, or at least pretending to be competitive instead of just flat out tanking.

Travis Sawchik: I see your point. I think the Padres should be spending money, just elsewhere … It’s a really good deal for Hosmer/Boras … I’ve argued the players ought to fight to change the overall structure of free agency

Matt: pace of play rules just announced…what do you think?

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik: If batters just stayed in the box between pitches (already a rule) it would eliminate a lot of the dead air

Travis Sawchik: I’m fine with limiting the mound visits

Dave Cameron: [Endless screams into the void]

kevinthecomic: Now that Hosmer has signed with San Diego, how quickly does Dave Cameron return to FanGraphs?

Travis Sawchik: Ha. Sadly for us, Dave is not returning

The Dez Man: Yoan Moncada or Andrew Beintendi over the next 6 years?

Travis Sawchik: Benintendi because I don’t have to worry about the hit tool

Nelson: Next New York pro sports title: Yankees or The field?

Travis Sawchik: Yankees

Minnesota (T)wins: I know some articles have been posted about the Odorizzi/Palacios trade. I can continue to feel hopeful (or rather less bad?) about the Twins rotation this year? I love the trade, feels kinda weak for TB return, right?

Travis Sawchik: I like the Odorizzi pickup even he’s more of a back-end guy…the Twins have a huge SP need and their SP depth was horrendous last season

Travis Sawchik: Twins didn’t have to surrender much either. Looks like a semi-cash dump

Mike sixel: Don’t worry, once the citizens pay for a new billion dollar stadium, then the Rays will spend money….

Travis Sawchik: lol

Travis Sawchik: Good time to be an owner, amiright?

C3PO: Best fit for JD… BoSox, DBacks… or MYSTERY TEAM!?

Travis Sawchik: The Rockies have the worst corners in baseball

Travis Sawchik: I know about the glove (maybe he could play first) but JDM’s bat playing up 20% at altitude? Sign me up

The Dez Man: Am I crazy to think that Hosmer might actually be underrated?

Travis Sawchik: Yes

Chuncey Wiggins: Do teams take note if a player’s former team makes no effort to re-sign a player? Apparently the Royals made no attempt on a Moustakas return.

Travis Sawchik: Well, I’m sure they want the draft comp

Wil Myers: Now that my team brought in Hosmer, I’m moving to the outfield, where I started my career in the big leagues. I know people like to rag on my defensive abilities, but they frequently forget that, with the Padres, they had me playing in one of the most spacious centerfields in baseball then moved me to first base, a position I had little to no experience prior. Will my move back to a corner outfield position make me a top 10 left fielder or right fielder?

45blowzbillygoats: The Giants have ___ years left beforet hey undergo a total rebuild given their scarce farm system.

Travis Sawchik: I think Myers could be OK in a corner … and Giants might be headed toward a cliff,  but they were pretty creative in improving and remaining under the tax threshold

Secret Moose: How quickly can the Ybor City Rays become the new Montreal Expos or Portland Somethings? Asking for a friend.

Travis Sawchik: I think we’re going to see Montreal get an expansion team within 10 years

Travis Sawchik: As for the Rays, I hope it works with a new stadium but Tampa is such a transient place it could take a couple generations to build a following

Travis Sawchik: More Yankees or Rays fans in Tampa?

Alex A : If your running the Braves do you make a move now ,

Travis Sawchik: I’d try to get Moustakas on a discounted deal

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik: BP is now must-watch in NY

Travis Sawchik: and Tampa

Joe: What do front offices know that we don’t know? Just, like, in general.

Travis Sawchik: They have all the Statcast data, for starters. They have traditional scouting intel. They know a lot more about player health. They have more sophisticated projection systems

Travis Sawchik: The gap between public and club knowledge is growing again

pirates hurdles: Can the optics on the Cole trade get worse? Musgrove out with shoulder discomfort. Team meeting with Nutting today should be fun.

Travis Sawchik: The fans (and players) are restless

Travis Sawchik: Pirates ownership could have pursued a Brewers-like path this offseason

James: Will more players accepts QOs next year after this free agency disaster?

Travis Sawchik: The average players attached to QOs should consider it

Matt: MLB has said they wont expand until TB and Oakland fix their stadium situations, so maybe not ten years, as idk where Oakland is heading with their stadium issues

Travis Sawchik: MLB is not going to wait around 10 more years on those stadium situations

Ronnie: Curious how Cain/Yelich’s defensive metrics might be impacted moving from larger OFs in KC/MIA to a smaller OF in MKE?

Travis Sawchik: Cain and Yelich can play more aggressively in MKE so I could see some metric improvement

HappyFunBall: MLBPA doesn’t need more nerds. MLBPA needs competent labor lawyers in charge. It’s a failure of leadership. I recognize that in an industry with typically short career lifespans it’s difficult to embolden long term planning, but Tony Clark, et al, have done a tremendous disservice to their membership. Even folks that are “on the owners’ side” surely recognize this.

Travis Sawchik: They at least need more voices included in the process and I think we’ll see that with agents, etc

Who wants Cory Dickerson?: ?

Travis Sawchik: Good question!

E: Did you see the report that the Indians rejected Carlos Santana’s proposal of 5 year $75MM before signing with the Phillies? Any thoughts on that?

Travis Sawchik: If Edwin Encarnacion wasn’t around maybe they consider it but the fourth and fifth years are probably problematic for club

Sam: What are the possibilities that the Reds have a 2018 similar to the Brewers 2017? Pitching staff is still rough, but the offense is strong, especially for a hitters ballpark.

Travis Sawchik: Reds are quietly becoming a little more interesting

He Hate Me: On the subject of expansion, you hear a lot about Montreal and Portland but, while I know it will never happen because of owner politics, convince me that any of these places is more appropriate than Brooklyn or NJ. NY supported three teams long before the age of TV revenue and only lost two due to the unprecedented rise of California. Bring on the Brooklyn Beards! (P.S. re: the Rays, they should switch places with the Charlotte Knights. Makes sense 5 ways to Sunday.)

Travis Sawchik: A team in Brooklyn in a retro Ebbets would be pretty awesome and probably has zero chance of happening

Kristen: If NYY wants to give Andujar more time in AAA, doesn’t A. Beltre with 1 year left on his deal seem like a no-brainer acquisition?  TEX should be dealing away its vets right now anyways.

Travis Sawchik: I could see NYY waiting on a vet in the trade market

Gavin: Who is affected more by the Arizona humidor–their rotation, or lineup?

Travis Sawchik: Chase Field looks like it’s going to be a pitcher’s park now so plan accordingly fantasy players

elfuego25: Does Corey Dickerson head back to Colorado on the cheap to to start in left or is there some trickery afoot where the Rays get him back?

Travis Sawchik: Colorado needs corners so that would be a good fit

Travis Sawchik: BTW, Dickerson is basically Hosmer’s fWAR equal since 2014

tb.25: Padres, White Sox, Braves. _____ will be the first of the three to win a world series

Travis Sawchik: A LOT could go wrong … but I’ll say Braves

Matt: Are the Rays actually going with a 4-man rotation? This can’t be real, right?

Travis Sawchik: I guess until Honeywell is ready, which was actually last July

ANSKY: What do you expect from Berrios this year for IP, K nd ERA, will he be the twins best pitcher?

Travis Sawchik: I’m a big Berrios guy. He’ll be a 15% K-BB guy with a sub-4 ERA. He’ll be the ace on a staff that will lack a true ace

Mary: With this latest arm injury is it now time to put Salazar in the bullpen permanently?

Travis Sawchik: I like Salazar as a potential Devinski multi-inning, impact reliever

Ooop All Crunchberries: Isn’t Hosmer the perfect high volatility signing for a team like the Padres?  The true contenders stayed away because they didn’t want to pay the premium over Duda, Adams, etc to gamble that he’d be able to change his launch angle.  However the Padres need some volatility.  If he can change his launch angle and become a true star they can exit the rebuild a little sooner.  If he can’t then it was a gamble that failed, but it’s not like they wasted Wil Myers prime to find out.  Given the current CBA there are only so much a team can efficiently spend on prospects so at some point, if you want to spend money to improve your team, you need to spend it on free agents.  Just like they’d rather give a rotation spot to a high-volatility fringe prospect than pay a premium for a lower-ceiling, higher-floor veteran, they’d rather spend their free agent dollars on a gamble that Hosmer has untapped potential than pay a premium for a lower ceiling, higher-floor f

Travis Sawchik: This is the case for signing Hosmer

Travis Sawchik: I wouldn’t have fought for it. Dave Cameron either! But it’s not the worst FA signing ever and Hosmer has upside

Travis Sawchik: And if Hosmer does become a swing-change monster the club has a club-friendly deal

Travis Sawchik: …. I just hate to make an eight-year commitment on the hope that a player is better than he’s shown to date

He Hate Me: Prediction: Dickerson changes agents to Boras and they hold out of a 6-year, 9-figure contract.

Travis Sawchik: If anyone can do it, it’s Boras speaking directly to Nats ownership

bartolos_colon: What is the latest you see Boras holding out for another offer for Martinez? In an extreme case, could you foresee any top 50 FAs left not signing until a team breaks camp?

Travis Sawchik: Well, we’ve seen Boras clients hold out deep into a season … but that was with little interest (Stephen Drew) … so I think JDM will take that 5-year BOS offer if nothing else is presented before opening day

Jstodola : Will Judge be able to handle all this pressure to have a great 2nd season?

Travis Sawchik: Yes

Travis Sawchik: Maybe not 50 HRs, but he’ll be fine

Nicole: Over the weekend the NBA announced that it was considering changing the playoff format.  Instead of conference play the teams will be seeded 1-16.  Do you see MLB changing their playoff format like the 5 best teams in each league make the playoffs regardless of divisions?

Travis Sawchik: The 5-team divisions are kind of absurd, really, but I think MLB likes the manufactured playoff races in Sept

lloyd: prediction: dickerson shuns baseball and becomes a pastry chef

Travis Sawchik: non-zero chance

tb.25: How long until deeper fielding data is released to the public? Initial positioning, route efficiency, etc.

Travis Sawchik: I have no idea but we need a better defensive metric

Dizzy Trout is better: Is there any reasonable hope that Yandy Diaz can learn to hit flyballs to put his great exit velo to use?  I wonder if being so jacked works against him… Gabe Kapler was also yoked and it didn’t help him much

Travis Sawchik: I think Yandy/Indians began addressing this a bit midway through last season. I know I spoke briefly with him about it

Travis Sawchik: He has huge potential if he can get the ball off the ground

Travis Sawchik: Elite exit velo guy

Matt Weiters: Is my name mentioned every time a GM is told by his team  owner that he is going to meet with Boras?

Travis Sawchik: Yours and Prince Fielder

He Hate Me: There are other cases for signing Hosmer. To wit, he has a strong reputation as a clubhouse leader, with a ring from an overachieving club to prove it. Why not sign that guy to shepherd a team full of promising young prospects into the show? Teams sign no-hit catchers all the time to bring along young pitching staffs (not for $144m, but bear with me). So while I’m sooo glad my contending team didn’t sign Hoz, I can see some logic in it for SD.

Travis Sawchik: I think the clubhouse leader aspect is overblown. Those great KC teams had a lot of guys come up together and I suspect the environment was more collective that tied to one individual. And Hosmer hasn’t been all that receptive to info that could help him (ask Eno)

Mike sixel: I hope they don’t get rid of divisions…. Much more interesting than top five….

Travis Sawchik: Divisions don’t create a meritocracy but they do create more drama

Travis Sawchik: I’d like to see a two-division format in MLB with the division winners getting play-in round byes

Gavin: Corey Dickerson: Great British Baking Show contestant?

Travis Sawchik: My wife loves that show. I could tell her about Dickerson

Zach: Jayson Stark tweeted that pitch clocks are overrated because only 3 starters averaged over 20 seconds per pitch. Two things, one, doesn’t this ignore that is just the average? That it would impact the entire sample of pitches that take over 20 seconds? Also, why is 20 generally accepted as the number? Why not…17-18?

Travis Sawchik: I think a lot of starters averaged well over 20 seconds but I’d have to look at our pace data

Questions Abound: Cozart is projected by PECOTA for… .4 WARP. Alonso is projected for… .1 WARP. ?!?!

Travis Sawchik: PECOTA doesn’t know Alonso made a swing change … it thinks he had an outlier season. As for Cozart, I don’t know

tb.25: @ MLB playoffs and divisions. With a 2 team expansion, could there be a major reshuffling in divisions? 2 leagues with 4 divisions of 4 teams each. Back to one wildcard, where the wild card and lowest division winner play the one-game playoff (or remove wild card altogether)

Travis Sawchik: Expansion is going to help schedule-making and division realign
ment

ROBOCOP: %chance Moustakas somehow ends up with the White Sox?

Travis Sawchik: Low … but he makes somesense for a rebuilding club because he is a younger free agent

Travis Sawchik: Hey, the Padres could just keep signing ex-Royals

Travis Sawchik: I’m sad to say this chat is ending

Travis Sawchik: Don’t be sad it’s over, be glad it happened

Travis Sawchik: until next week, be good and do good …