Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings from the media workroom at the Cincinnati Reds spring training complex in Goodyear, Arz.

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started …

Howdy: Any chance Senzel breaks camp with the Reds?

Travis Sawchik: zero chance due to service time issues but the bat might be ready and the shortstop experiment is pretty interesting

Jordan: Travis, how hard do you have to squint to see the Pirates being a legit wildcard contender? Are they REALLY that much worse than STL/MIL/COL? They could have a really strong bullpen, starting pitching should be okay, if not spectacular. Offense could struggle, for sure.

Travis Sawchik: Everything went wrong for the Pirates a year ago … If enough breaks right they could be in the WC mix, but I think the 75-win forecast seems pretty reasonable

Rabbit: What is the trade value of guys like Glasnow, Giolito, and Jeff Hoffman?

Travis Sawchik: Depressed but there’s still some value there depending on a club’s risk tolerance

Moltar: It’s NHL trade deadline day, which is usually so much fun. I remember when the MLB trade deadline was fun, but now it seems like the deadline is meaningless and everybody just goes for “waiver” trades in august. I mean, if Verlander can get dealt after the “deadline” then what’s even the point? Why not scrap the idea of waivers deals and just move the deadline back a few weeks?

Travis Sawchik: I’d be all for one actual, true deadline … It would be more interesting and action-packed, for sure

Peter: Are you a believer in the Rays model? Seems like they have a good eye for talent in trades/draft and accumulate depth of guys that can be solid MLB players but not stars. Eventually for them to break the trend of mediocrity don’t they need to start acquiring/drafting players with star upside?

Travis Sawchik: At some point, the Rays need more star-level talent or 2- 3-win players everywhere on the 25-man roster

Vermont Sox Fan: How do you see Blake Swihart fitting into the Red Sox Opening Day roster? Will the upside of his bat be behind Vazquez and Leon on the depth chart?

Travis Sawchik: I’m still something of a believer. He needs to stay healthy. The bat will play and the glove might be good enough

Trader Andy: which rookie SS do you like more Tatis or Bichette and Why?

Travis Sawchik: How spoiled are we at the SS position right now … and then we get Tatis and Bichette? I’d take Tatis but love both

resumeman: In an AL Scoresheet keeper league, if both Ohtani and Rafael Devers are available in the first post-keeper round (14th player), which would you prefer? In the context of this season, I’ve got 5 starting pitchers ranging from average to Kluber, and the left side of my infield is pretty weak. But I do need to look to the future too. Thanks!

Travis Sawchik: While I think the inherent risk of any pitching prospect makes Ohtani somewhat overrated in fantasy (compared to the hype), I’d rather have Ohtani

resumeman: Which Statcast stat do you think provides more useful information: Total batted ball distance or FB distance? The former would seem to incorporate ground-ball rate, but the FB distance tells you (duh) how far a guy actually hits the ball. Any thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: FB distance. I want to know how far the actually hits the ball when he hits it in the air

Quentin: Is there an argument for the Reds to be a surprise team this year and hang around the WC race?

Travis Sawchik: The Reds are becoming more interesting, for sure. Perhaps a year too early on WC hopes, though

Charles Finley: What’s it gonna take for my boy Neil Walker to get a job?

Travis Sawchik: There are a ton of quality free agents still remaining which is insane and Walker is one of them

Travis Sawchik: For of our top 11 FAs are still unsigned

Travis Sawchik: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/

Gary: Are the Reds really going to bat a sub 300ish OBP atop their lineup again with Billy? He should be batting 9th. Winker is really the best option up there. Thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: That OBP is a killer at the top spot. I’ve wondered if there is a way to make Hamilton a bench player — but have him be the first guy off the bench early in games a pinch-runner to artificially inflate his OBP

SWSmith: Opinions seem to be all over the place on what to expect from the Toronto Blue Jays this year. What’s your take?

Travis Sawchik: They’ve had a sneaky good offseason and I think they have upside as a wild card team in that mix with the Angels, Twins, Mariners and Yankees or Red Sox

CamdenWarehouse: Are you going to watch Stephenson pitch today?  I’m intrigued by the complete turnaround he had after being moved to the rotation last year.

Travis Sawchik: I might. Nice think about Arizona ST is you can bounce around from camp to camp pretty efficiently. He’s worth monitoring this spring, for sure

The Law: Why are people suddenly acting like Harper to the Yankees cant happen anymore? Gardy is a FA after this year and there’s no reason why the Yankees can’t run a tri-rotation of LF, RF, DH with Harper, Judge, and Stanton, right?

Travis Sawchik: I think the Yankees are still the favorite followed by the Phillies and Cubs

tb.25: Have you been to both grapefruit and cactus leagues, and which do you prefer to travel to?

Travis Sawchik: Arizona is more convenient, but I prefer Gulf to desert

Tommy Lastella: Great idea Travis. I could lead off for the Reds in road games and leave after my first at bat for Hamilton.

Travis Sawchik: Something like this could be pretty interesting

Slapshot: Are you taking hockey questions today since it’s NHL trade deadline day?

Travis Sawchik: Ha! Nah, but sounds like MLB ought to borrow from NHL trade deadline

Bob: How do opt outs affect the luxury tax calculations? If JD opts out after year 2, his actual AAV for the deal was $25M but the original dead was for $110M over 5 ($22M)

Travis Sawchik: I believe the initial AAV is what matters

Baseball is fun: So….should I continue to hold in my excitement for Blake snell, or share it with the world?  Looks like the last handful of starts from last year carried over yesterday…

Travis Sawchik: Share, please share

Joe: If harper signs with the yankees, will anyone outside of NY even pay attention to baseball anymore?

Travis Sawchik: People with watch, Joe, people everywhere will watch

Travis Sawchik: Harper-Stanton-Judge-Sanchez-Bird … My gawd

Scott: Best player to get traded before the deadline? Manchado if the O’s stink?

Travis Sawchik: Machado is a good candidate

Oklahomabrave: Who gets Moose-Whitesox or Braves?

Travis Sawchik: I think there is a case to be made for either club but Braves are closer to relevance, I think, so he’s a better fit there

Asian Model: Is Yelich a big enough upgrade to help the Brewers compete for the NL central title? Or does the Darvish signing offset the Yelich trade?

Travis Sawchik: The Darvish trade closes some of those gains made by the Brewers

Bob: Do you predict the Yankee trading for an impact player at the deadline? If so, who?

Travis Sawchik: I could see them being in on a rotation arm and they have the assets to get a good one

tacopocket: much like every fantasy player ever in 2 catchers league, I hate spending on catchers.  so who are some value guys I should be looking at in the cheaper pile?

Travis Sawchik: Just draft the Dodgers’ platoon!

Travis Sawchik: I’ll be curious to see if Mejia can force his way into Indians’ plans. Cleveland has really struggled vs. RHP from catcher spot for the last several seasons … Mejia is a switch hitter

Nisher: What’s your sense on Gleyber Torres this season? Both positionally and when he’ll make his debut?

Travis Sawchik: Drury gives the Yankees a little more time, but I think Torres will dictate some of his timetable

Alastar: Obviously 2 games is an extremely SSS, but how well would Meadows have to play during spring training to earn a starting OF spot to begin the year?

Travis Sawchik: There’s zero chance of meadows breaking camp

Eldridge Cleaver: How would you rank the keeper value of Bregman, Sano, and Devers?

Travis Sawchik: That’s so tough, particularly with Sano’s off-the-field issue

Travis Sawchik: And injury history

Travis Sawchik: Might go Devers, Bregman, Sano

Matt Klentak: How many games does Miguel Sano play this year?

Travis Sawchik: 105

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Does Brandon Drury pretty much negate us from seeing Andujar?

Travis Sawchik: No. He can hit his way into NYY’s 2018 plans

Scott: There is a part of the Martinez signing that I think people are missing which is that it’s likely going to allow the Red Sox to save 22 million next year on a ~.5 war player in Hanley. He needs 497 PAs for that option to vest and was a real threat to get there before this signing. I guess in theory they could have “decided” that Nunez, Holt, or one of the catchers was a better hitter and just needed those ABs but that’s risking a pretty big fight with the union. Any idea how teams model/value situations like this? Obviously some chance Hanley gets hurt and this savings would have happened anyway.

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think there is any way the Red Sox would allow that option to vest

CarrotJuice: I just noticed that Fangraphs projects the Nats to have a significantly worse run differential than all the other “super teams” when not factoring in strength of schedule. Is it possible that the Nationals  aren’t really a super team, but rather a very good team who has benefited from a mostly awful division these past two years?

Travis Sawchik: I think they are one of the weaker super teams

Matt Klentak: 2 catcher league means you start 2 catchers, if you draft dodgers platoon you have effectively drafted 1 catcher with 2 roster spots

Travis Sawchik: I understand. I don’t know how that platoon is going to be shared and Barnes and Grandal are two of the better hitting catchers in the game and the timeshare will drive down costs (and Barnes might also get extra ABs as a UTL at second base)

CarrotJuice: For context, the Nationals are projected to have a run differential closer to the Blue Jays than any of the other six “super teams.”

Travis Sawchik: If the Nats weren’t in the NL East that would be somewhat of an alarming projection

Dogg4Life: Thoughts on Maikel Franco?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not a believer

Matt: Y’all gonna look like idiots when that Harper money goes to Clayton.

Pete: I think the arguments against Harper ending up a Yankee are: A) We’re talking at least $400M, and Hal doesn’t spend like his dad, B) Does Harper want to be third banana to Judge and Stanto?, and C) Imagine the contract the Yankees will have to give Judge.

Travis Sawchik: Kershaw in NYY would be interesting, too

Brian: Any concern with the Dodgers starting staff? It seems like there is a lot of injury risk and not great depth like in years past

Travis Sawchik: The Dodgers did sit out FA, but they also have Walker Buehler waiting

MikeVail: Are teams testing pitcher’s range of motion with a bubble goniometer during ST to determine the degree of GIRD in the throwing shoulder?  What kind of preventative medical procedures are being used to identify injury risks for pitchers?

Travis Sawchik: Teams are into all sorts of biometric measuring … I am not sure about this specific tool

Defending the Capital: Is it fair to say the Nationals probably have a lesser projected  run differential because their 5th starter spot is weak and they don’t have a crazy deep bullpen – things that make approximately zero difference in the playoffs. Do they need to worry now about the Mets catching them?

Travis Sawchik: Good point. Playoff rosters are different than regular season ones and the Nats have a pretty formidable top 15-20 of roster

mike: Do you still talk to Dave Cameron seriously about baseball?

Travis Sawchik: Dave stopped returning my texts

Rex Manning Day: My strongest non-analytic opinion this year is that, motivated by being overlooked because of Judge-Stanton, Gary Sanchez is going to have a monster year. Do you have a gut feeling that can’t really be backed up by numbers about anybody this year?

Travis Sawchik: I’m no longer permitted to have a Gary Sanchez take

YKnotdisco?!: I just got back from the future and I wanted to share with you, and you only: Harper goes to the Phillies next year and  holds it down until Trout joins him in 2021.

Travis Sawchik: Phillies are a legit darkhorse for Harper with their payroll space. If they exceed expectations this year, that wouldn’t hurt either

Travis Sawchik: So for recruiting purposes perhaps it might make sense for the Phillies to go back into this FA well

Matt: Anyone who thinks Hal will shy away form a $400MM contract is kidding themselves. History proves it. He doesn’t spend *recklessly* like his dad. The “cheap Hal” narrative is wrong on so many levels. The only strong argument against the Yanks signing Harper is that there are options who will cost similarly, have talent in the same vicinity, but fit the roster better (Kershaw, Machado, etc)

Travis Sawchik: Yankees have been planning for next offseason for a long time. I’d be really shocked if they don’t land one of the Harper/Machado/Kershaw

Hans Gruber: Thoughts on T. Walker this season, factoring in the use of the humidor? top 20 sp or top 40?

Travis Sawchik: He gets a bump

Careagan: Kershaw and Dodgers are “on the same page” regarding his contract–I doubt he makes it to free agency

Travis Sawchik: He should be a Dodger for Life. Anything other than that doesn’t seem quite right

CamdenWarehouse: August stopped returning Eno’s texts too.  What does working in baseball do to people?

Travis Sawchik: It clearly turns people into monsters

Calarx: As a Yankee fan who thinks Harper is second best player in the league, why do we rule out Nationals bringing him back? They have a history of handing out big contracts and isn’t Lerner the wealthiest owner in the league?

Travis Sawchik: Nats still have a shot, for sure

Pip: Over Under on Arrietta’s years and total value? Is it crazy to think it’s something like 4 years 100M? Supposedly he still want’s 6 years but I almost seems hard to imagine a team even going 5 years now.

Travis Sawchik: I think it will be four

Travis Sawchik: Maybe with an option … and/or opt out

AL Central Basement: Under what scenario does Moose make sense for the CWS

Travis Sawchik: Not a likely fit but at some point he becomes a value play … His age helps in this case, too

v2micca: While the Phillies may be a Dark Horse for Harper, I suspect they have their eyes set on bringing Trout home to Phillie in 2021.

Travis Sawchik: Get ’em both

Slick Rick Hahn: Michael Kopech starting today and I will therefore be watching a spring training game with intense focus. What prospect(s) are you the most excited to see against MLB players this spring? Mine are Kopech-Senzel

Travis Sawchik: Senzel, Tatis, Mejia,

Nick S: Mous to the Braves for 4/50, paid out as 5/15/15/15?

Travis Sawchik: Mous to the Braves has made sense, at least to me, for awhile now

AL Central Basement: Since nothing makes sense anymore, what would be the most FUN fit for the few remaining big name FA’s (Let’s do Arrieta, Moose, Cobb and Lucroy)

Travis Sawchik: Arrieta – Phillies, Moose – Braves,  Cobb- Twins, Lucroy …. hmmmm

Travis Sawchik: I don’t know what to do with Lucroy and that framing decline

silvpak: @brian: the Dodgers rotation stacks eight deep (assuming Buehler breaks camp); they’ll lead with CK/Hill/Wood/Maeda/Ryu, one would assume, with Buehler/Stripling/Stewart around to pick up slack, give CK/Hill/Wood some Sunday starts. Arguably the best SP depth in baseball and the same optionality approach as last year, where they can pounce on an SP if/when one becomes available.

Travis Sawchik: The Dodgers’ depth is still very good

Mike Mussina: I am Moose.  You’re talking about Mousse.

Travis Sawchik: There is one Moose

capconstrained: You were one of the first last year to say Judge had improved his swing mechanics and was going to improve.  In your opinion, who’s improved their swing this year?

Travis Sawchik: Stay tuned …

tb.25: Which non-projected division winner from each league has the best chance to get to the WS?

Travis Sawchik: Red Sox and Dbacks, for me

Slick Rick Hahn: With the increase in shifting and fly ball revolution, the Mariners are on to something moving Dee Gordon to CF right? In the same vein as Senzel at SS, were going to start seeing all premium athletes pushed to CF instead of SS right? Example in mind for me would be Twins moving Royce Lewis to CF. Also fun to imagine White Sox moving Yoan Moncada to CF with that arm and speed

Travis Sawchik: We’re not there yet but overall there is less importance on defense because of opportunity

Scott: Are the Braves/WS holding on Moose because they think they have a legit shot at Machado/Donaldson

Travis Sawchik: Maybe?

Scott: Machado 10/33m? If Machado can stick at SS he has the chance to be more valuable than Harper.

Travis Sawchik: Machado at SS for a full year could make this even more interesting

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks I have to run into the Reds clubhouse and hopefully track down Votto and Senzel. Thanks for stopping by. Until next time, be good and do good