Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat
12:02 |
: Happy Monday, folks
|
12:02 |
: Let’s get started, shall we?
|
12:03 |
: I don’t know what’s better: Mookie’s performance or the fact that xwOBA thinks he’s actually deserved better results.
|
12:05 |
: Trout is still the best player in the world but Mookie is making it an interesting conversation. He’s always had elite eye-hand skills and now he’s learned to produce game power
|
12:05 |
: Travis! Mookie is on pace for like a 50/40 season. No question really, just wanted to point that out.
|
12:05 |
: Not bad
|
12:05 |
: Also Mookie already has exactly 2 fewer barrels than he had in his entire 2016 (2nd place MVP) season.
|
12:06 |
: Mookie for president
|
12:06 |
: Is Josh Hader a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate, and should he be?
|
12:06 |
: If he can strike out two batters per inning for an entire season, and often in high-leverage spots, that’s pretty special
|
12:08 |
: Travis! Long time, no chat! Had to stay home sick today. I love the 21st century and it’s expected job benefits like sick time.
|
12:08 |
: Is there any way to make my voice heard to the BlueJays FO about calling up the new and improved Vladdy? I just need a protest sign and a location, my man!
|
12:08 |
: Your voice has been heard!
|
12:09 |
: Vlad could hit right now but it’s matter of maximizing the service time, etc
|
12:10 |
: I was talking with a friend about Mike Trout the other day and we began speculating on how low his wRC+ would have to get before we started wondering what was wrong with him. The number we came up with was 155. We then realized the absurdity of that statement, but still maintained it applied in the case of Trout.
|
12:10 |
: I’d set the mark at like 135 but far enough
|
12:12 |
: Do the red sox have the package needed to get Realmuto? and how could they get rid of the necessary salary to add him?
|
12:13 |
: Red Sox have had a below-replacement catching situation to date so the need is there in a tight AL East race
|
12:13 |
: I think the Red Sox have the assets to get it done and could probably get creative with cash
|
12:14 |
: I’m curious about what your thoughts on Manfred are. Fans are consistently blasting him, but we rarely hear opinions from people with close ties to the industry. Just would like to hear your thoughts on how hes handled things like juiced balls, the Marlins, dress code, and pace of play.
|
12:15 |
: On the big things, like appealing to future generation of fans, etc, I think he has been right and smart to focus there and pace is part of it
|
12:15 |
: I understand that Jordan Hicks throws a very hard sinker – but has anyone pitching that hard have such a low K-Rate and still be effective like him? I still don’t understand
|
12:15 |
: Jordan Hicks throws 105 mph sinkers with like 60 inches of fade. Really. I have proof.
|
12:16 |
: It’s an unusual skill set for sure. I’m more worried about the command that swing-and-miss
|
12:17 |
: is what the Rays are doing (RP to start the game) going to be the new norm?
|
12:17 |
: In 10 years, I think pitching labels are going to be thought of differently
|
12:18 |
: Love that the Rays did that. Makes sense to get Romo in key right-on-right situations regardless of inning
|
12:19 |
: Amazing how Romo didn’t melt when he went out there. Rather, he struck out the side
|
12:19 |
: When are we getting the article about the Rays starting Sergio Romo two days in a row? I love this; it’s the most fangraphs-y of fangraphs thing to ever happen. Is Dave Cameron begging AJ Preller to make this happen as we speak?
|
12:19 |
: Soon 😉
|
12:19 |
: Do you think Dahl gets any consistent playing time in the near future?
|
12:20 |
: He should. Rockies’ LF/RF/1B situations are horrendous. He’s been an above-average bat when he’s played
|
12:20 |
: On that same Manfred note, isn’t his entire goal slightly contradictory? He wants to increase offense in the game to make it more “interesting”, while also making games shorter to help acheive that. But there is a direct correlation between game time and offense. If you increase offense, arnt you also inevitably increasing game time?
|
12:21 |
: I don’t know that increasingly offense is a major started goal (home runs, yeah, I guess) but the big thing is getting more balls in play. I’m not sure shrinking the strike zone helps that. I think it just creates more balls, more pitches, longer games
|
12:22 |
: With diminishing returns on players like Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, and even some high-end prospects like Gore, Baez, Urias, Quantrill, and Tatis, is the Padres “core” going to be good enough? Personally, I can’t see half these guys contributing on a World Series-caliber team. Would it be better if they traded some of their depth for superstar talent (in a year or two)?
|
12:23 |
: Not all of these guys are going to plan out but I still like their U25 talent collection quite a bit
|
12:23 |
: What would you say are the odds the entire AL Central ends the season with losing records?
|
12:23 |
: There’s like a 6 percent chance or something. I think the Indians will finish around 90 wins but as for the rest of the division …
|
12:23 |
: AL Central is an argument for 8-team divisions once MLB arrives at 32 teams
|
12:25 |
: Speaking of that Hicks video, I feel like there have a been a lot more clips of pitches with crazy movement this season. Is this due to focus on spin rate, pitchers using substances, or another unintentional consequence of the ball changing?
|
12:25 |
: Velo keeps going up and spin is up, too. They are related. … But there are some that believe the game has a major pine tar/substance problem
|
12:26 |
: Would mandating larger minimum field size requirements increase balls in play? I’d think that if each foul pole was at 350 feet, fewer guys would go all out for homers.
|
12:27 |
: Every stadium that has created larger dimensions (Comerica, Citi) has eventually brought in the fences. Citi has done it like three times
|
12:27 |
: People dig the long ball
|
12:27 |
: So while in theory it might help achieve some goals, I’m not sure fans want the power tradeoff
|
12:27 |
: Who are the options for the Rockies to replace Desmond? Bour?
|
12:28 |
: He’d be on the list along with like every corner on a non-contender
|
12:28 |
: Speaking of pitchers and substances, what would your guess be? Do you think Bauer is right?
|
12:29 |
: I think Bauer is onto something. Check out his first inning spin rate on May 1 (I think it was May 1)
|
12:29 |
Everyone else to start a game for the Mets: -0.9 WAR combined No question, just… damn |
12:30 |
: Do you build around those guys and Conforto/Nimmo/Cespedes etc or blow it up? Tough spot
|
12:30 |
: I’d be exploring what returns deGrom and Thor could fetch
|
12:31 |
: How about those Braves! Sure it was the Marlins, but…6 runs in the 9th is still a pretty epic comeback. Are they a serious wildcard or…gasp…division contender?
|
12:31 |
: Braves look pretty legit. I still like the Nats but the Braves have an incredible amount of young talent and more on the way
|
12:32 |
: Regardless of how good Hader has been, I just don’t see how Scherzer isn’t the favorite at this point. Max is too dominant. He’s putting up a K% that is unprecedented in like double the innings. Hader will be the unfortunate victim of doing crazy things during the Verlander-Scherzer-led 2018 season.
|
12:33 |
: Max is the overwhelming favorite I just think Hader should be on the list
|
12:34 |
: Alright. So, what would be *your* plan to keep homers up, yet also increase pace and balls in play? Fix baseball for the next generation!
|
12:34 |
: Keep batters in the box at all times, basically … and maybe lower the mound
|
12:34 |
: World series prediciton?
|
12:35 |
: Astros over some team from the NL
|
12:35 |
: Yankees have more quality players than roster spots. In the next week or 2, Kahnle, Warren, and Bird will have to be added to the roster. Off the top of my head, Gallegos (recently promoted for Clint), AJ Cole, are 2 of the easier options. What do you do with Bird? Release Walker outright? Option Torreyes or Austin who both have had great starts to the season. An Austin/Bird platoon at 1B sounds great in theory.
|
12:35 |
: Good problem to have. I suspect Neil Walker is in trouble
|
12:37 |
: Probably should look at Tatis’ numbers in May Before you say diminishing returns. Quite an overreaction to include him there or any of the prospects. Renfroe-Hedges-Margot? Sure okay.
|
12:37 |
: Have faith, San Diego … Dave Cameron is there!
|
12:37 |
: Would you support an NHL/NBA scheduling model of every team having a home and home against every other team? It makes me
|
12:38 |
: I’m not a fan of the unbalanced MLB schedule. I’d like to see a greater schedule diversity … and it put some teams at disadvantages in the Wild Card race
|
12:38 |
: Will I be in the MVP conversation at the end of the year?
|
12:39 |
: Not sure but I don’t think you’ll be one of the game’s most underrated players any longer
|
12:39 |
: Ohtani in the belongs in the HR derby.
|
12:39 |
: Yes!
|
12:39 |
: Why are we so sure that starters need 4 days rest? Imagine Scherzer making 40 starts a year.
|
12:40 |
: I don’t think any team has figured out a way to optimize pitcher rest. We can look at history of starters on regular, short and extra rest but we also need to know pitch counts, high-stress innings, etc. Max is a freak. Bauer is a guy who could seemingly throw forever, too
|
12:42 |
: So if Trout is on pace to have the best season ever, and Mookie Betts is ahead in WAR, isn’t it Mookie Betts who’s on pace for the best season ever? Just want to make sure I’m analyzing things correctly.
|
12:43 |
: Yep. You have it right
|
12:43 |
: Imagine Hader in a 7 game series. Dude could start, or pitch from the 6th to the 9th
|
12:43 |
: He’d be an Andrew Miller Plus postseason model
|
12:43 |
: Is this Astros rotation on pace to potentially be the greatest ever statistically? All five starters in the top 50 WAR wise.
|
12:45 |
: Yeah, they are a threat
|
12:45 |
: Record for starting pitching WAR for a season (26.0), is held by the 1970 Cubs and 2011 Phillies … Astros already at 8.9
|
12:46 |
: But WAR isn’t the best measure because it’s accumulative, etc
|
12:47 | : But ERA- … Astros (54) are No. 1 ahead of the 1906 Cubs (66) |
12:47 |
: Andrelton Simmons: now also incredibly in ways we can measure. Can we get a piece on that 5% K rate??
|
12:48 |
: You do worse than a Simmons-Trout, SS-CF combo
|
12:49 |
: At this point, Goldy’s struggles have to be mental, right? A lot of peripherals match last year but his F-Strike is way up. Last year he hit .450 of 96+ and this year he’s hitting .063. Can bat speed just go away?
|
12:49 |
: That number vs. velo is a bit concerning but I can’t believe he’d lose a dramatic amount of bat-speed overnight
|
12:50 |
: MIL should follow TB’s lead, and have Josh Hader start once every series just to blast throw the batting order that first time.
|
12:51 |
: If if could get him to matchup with , say, Bryce Harper twice in the early innings it could make some sense
|
12:51 |
: Correa or Lindor?
|
12:51 |
: Lindor
|
12:51 |
: At this current pace, Jose Ramirez could have the best 3rd baseman season in the history of the game, and get no 1st place MVP votes. Wild
|
12:52 |
: Not a great time to be Lindor or Ramirez if you want to win an AL MVP
|
12:52 |
: Are pitchers with steeper downhill plane getting hit harder by hitters that are swinging for higher launch angles?
|
12:52 |
: It’s still most difficult to elevate a ball down in the zone, but there are more and more swings geared to take advantage of such pitchers
|
12:52 |
: Jesus Aguilar has a 127 wRC+ in 430 MLB plate appearances over 2017-18. He has about a 130 wRC+ in over 1,500 AAA plate appearances. Steamer/ZIPS don’t buy it projecting 90/98 wRC+ ROS. How large does a sample need to be before the projections take it into account?
|
12:53 |
: When Aguliar retires with a 127 wRC+ 10 years from now, Steamer will still refuse to accept that it happened … In all seriousness, I think we need to see a little more but he’s exceeding expectations
|
12:53 |
: 6×6 OPS league. No middle infield. Would you trade Carrasco for Baez? Pitching… Porcello, Maeda, Gausman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Cole Hamels, Pivetta, Freeland, Hellickson, Matz, Vazquez Treinen
|
12:55 |
: No. I have more confidence in Carrasco being a near ace than Baez being a plus bat. That .299 OBP is ugly
|
12:55 |
: What’s the date that allows TOR to maximize Vlads service time?
|
12:55 |
: Given where TOR is in the standings, probably June of 2019
|
12:56 |
: The Jays should sign Vlad to a 6 year deal worth $60M. Call him up!
|
12:56 |
: Jays would want some free agency years and Vlad would probably want some more cash (a lot more)
|
12:57 |
: How do you foresee the trade market for Jose Abreu shaping up this deadline?
|
12:57 |
: I’d move him, and I’d love to see Abreu and his power and high contact in Coors Field
|
12:58 |
: Sign Vlad for a 12 year 500M dollar deal tbh
|
12:58 |
: Vlad would do that, I’m pretty sure
|
12:58 |
: Or just give Vlad the franchise and have him pay the club
|
12:58 |
C – Weiters P – J. Ross |
12:58 |
: That’s pretty wild
|
12:59 |
: At what point does a Vlad Jr. contract make sense? 10/120?
|
12:59 |
: Seems in the right ballpark
|
12:59 |
: Is Josh Donaldson done as an elite player?
|
1:00 |
: This was not the year he wanted to have entering free agency , that’s for sure
|
1:00 |
: He’s going to be 33 next season, the shoulder looks concerning … I think we’ve certainly seen Peak Donaldson now the question is can he rebound to what degree
|
1:00 |
: Do you think the Cards will employ a 6 man once Reyes is ready. So silly to demote Flaherty or put him in pen.
|
1:00 |
: Cards gotta keep Flaherty in the rotation
|
1:01 |
: Which SP has surprised you the most so far in terms of results?
|
1:01 |
: Gerrit Cole
|
1:01 |
: I mean everyone thought he would benefit in going to Houston … but who saw him becoming Peak Pedro Martinez?
|
1:01 |
: Jack Flaherty has to stay in the majors now, right?
|
1:01 |
: Yeah
|
1:02 |
: What’s the biggest need for the Braves? They upgraded at 3B just by dumping Joey Bats.
|
1:02 |
: For me it’s a front-line starter but you could say that about 90 percent of teams
|
1:03 |
: Michael Fulmer could be interesting
|
1:05 |
: Expectations for Jaun Soto?…Unless he really struggles he is up to stay I think because the Nat’s outfield cupboard is bare to the bones due to injuries and poor performances.
|
1:05 |
: Performance will dictate his stay. He was in Low-A ball last month, so this is an amazing climb.
|
1:06 |
: I have no idea what to expect
|
1:06 |
: How much sense does a deGrom to Braves trade make? They can give back a couple of high ceiling arms (Wright/Allard seems like a great starting place) and have plenty of complimentary pieces, no?
|
1:06 |
: I know intradivision trades aren’t popular but if Mets fall further out they could be logical partners
|
1:08 |
: Does the players’ union have any input on changes made to the baseball? At some point a pitcher is going to be severely injured due to the increase in exit velocity.
|
1:09 |
: They have a voice to make concerns heard but I don’t think ball properties are part of the CBA, for instance (though I could be wrong)
|
1:09 |
: I feel like the AL Central should be the main argument against an unbalanced schedule-if the Indians are doing this poorly there’s no way they should get a break from having three tanking/terrible teams in their division. They should win the division by multiple digits, but if they’re not that good then they have about as much a right to avoid the wild card game as the Tigers.
|
1:11 |
: I’m in favor of two divisions in each league for this reason and for more schedule diversity … although I do have some sympathy for smaller-market fans, and without a salary cap, the three-division format sort of levels the market-size playing field
|
1:11 |
: Follow up: Agree that Abreu to Rockies makes sense. Does Brendan Rodgers for Abreu make sense for both sides?
|
1:11 |
: Rockies aren’t trading Rodgers for a Age 31 corner. Sorry!
|
1:11 |
: Do you buy Daniel Robertson’s new swing changes making him a 25~ HR hitter
|
1:11 |
: I do
|
1:12 |
: Kyle Wright, Austin Riley and Christian Pache for Michael Fulmer – who says no?
|
1:12 |
: Pache for The Tigers
|
1:12 |
: A’s have a chance at the WC if their SP’s get healthy?
|
1:12 |
: There’s a chance, not a great one
|
1:14 |
: How wild is it that the Red Sox, Yanks, and Astros all have the same projected record now? To think one of the AL East teams will have to win a play-in game is just bonkers.
|
1:15 |
: Top three run differential teams in baseball: Astros +98, Yankees +76, Red Sox +75 and one of them is going to get screwed facing Ohtani in the Wild Card game
|
1:15 |
: Alright folks, I have to go. Thanks for stopping by!
|
1:15 |
: Until next week, be good and do good
|
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
“Kyle Wright, Austin Riley and Christian Pache for Michael Fulmer – who says no?”
I say no
As a Braves fan, I recoiled in horror at the thought.