Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Howdy

Travis Sawchik: I hope all the fathers in the audience enjoyed their day

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started, shall we?

Paul: If you were in Alex Anthopoulous’ position, how would you handle the deadline?

Travis Sawchik: I wouldn’t trade away too much of tomorrow, too much future surplus value … but I’d try and make some marginal improvements

Bernie: I saw your article on the attendance numbers, specifically AL, trending down. Any word on the NL attendance numbers?

Travis Sawchik: NL numbers are also down … just not as dramatically

Travis Sawchik: I focused on the AL in that piece since the postseason field already looks set on June 18

Travis Sawchik: While we can’t predict ball, we have four AL teams with 96% playoff odds and nine AL clubs with 5% probability or worse

Travis Sawchik: I think it’s one of many contributors

dominik: how worried are you about the attendance drop? is it a temporary thing due to weather or so? terrible (tanking) teams like miami? general trend of not going outside and instead watch at TV? or a general problem of baseball?

Travis Sawchik: It goes beyond weather as I noted in the piece. Since mid-April attendance is still down 6.1% compared to 2017

Travis Sawchik: I think there are a lot of things at play: cost to attend, quality of HD cameras and flat-screen TVs, tanking , teams trying to contend with secondary market

Travis Sawchik: Baseball is still very popular. More people are probably watching than every before when taking into account the digital audience … but owners still need people to attend games

Loge Mezzanino: Lorenzo Cain’s always been a pretty good hitter, but he’s never walked anywhere close to as much as he has this year. Can relative free-swingers turn into high BB guys more easily than we seem to give them credit for?

Travis Sawchik: It can happen but it’s pretty rare … Not sure what Mr. Cain is up to but Brewers have to be pleased

Coach K: Twins window is now… never a better opportunity. Now Carrasco of tribe is out. Would a fair deal be Buxton for Machado, Gausman or Bundy, Cisco and Britton (3-1trade) be good for both? If Buxton comes back limping and not hitting his weight, many teams with questions about him will have their answer. To me Twins need to get luggage out for Buxton. He is what brings back enough to make pennant run. Your thoughts please.

Travis Sawchik: There’s zero chance of something like this happening. And since Buxton has already acquired a decent amount of service time, I’m not sure he’s all that valuable to the Orioles.

ryan: Should the rangers consider a rebuild this season? I can see arguments either way. If yes, should they hold onto mazara?

Travis Sawchik: Rangers are yet another AL team that should be looking to spin off short-term control assets

Frank: Any concern about Albies? He was obviously over performing the first month of the season but since may 1st is slashing just .225/.266/.396. Seems like pitchers have started pitching him up in the zone and he can’t get to it consistently.

Travis Sawchik: He’s cooled off, certainly. But what he had done up until that point had been historically rare for his age so I wouldn’t be too concerned.

Babe Lincoln: How much of what Brandon Nimmo is doing is sustainable?  Seems like he married a legit swing change with already-solid plate discipline skills.

Travis Sawchik: I think it’s pretty sustainable. I like the total package quite a bit.

Bork: Mike Trout is good at baseball

Travis Sawchik: Let’s talk about Trout reaching 6.1 fWAR on June 18

Travis Sawchik: 6.1!

Travis Sawchik: Angels have played 72 games

Travis Sawchik: Trout is on pace for nearly a 14 WAR season

Bernie: What do the Brewers do with Thames/Aguilar combo? Keep the platoon and use one as a clutch time pinch hitter? Get Thames more time in left, and save Braun’s body for late season?

0 FV: Eric Thames went off yesterday. With Aguilar continuing to play well and Cain and Yelich holding down the other two OF positions, do you think it’s possible that Braun gets forced into a full-time bench/utility role? Could they explore moving him at the deadline, even with that contract? Even then, what to do with Domingo Santana?

Travis Sawchik: Brewers made one deal to break up their corner surplus in adding Miller but I’m sure they’d like to make another

yojiveself: What has been happening with Pivetta lately?  have hitters figured him out?

Travis Sawchik: Three straight poor starts but that’s not much of a sample. I haven’t dug in for a look but Phillies have to be happy with total body of work thus far

Bernie: Ive been seeing some opinion pieces on how to give the batters more of an advantage in order to cut down on the K’s, but they all could lead to more strain on pitchers arms (lower or move back mound). Is changing the strikezone the only realistic option if anything actually gets changed?

Travis Sawchik: Messing with the strike zone is going to have an awful lot of unintended consequences, I fear

Willas Tyrell: Who is the best player in the NL and why is nobody close to Freddie Freeman?

Travis Sawchik: Freeman is amazing and ought to have a real MVP shot

Travis Sawchik: It’s good to be the Braves

Travis Sawchik: And Pache hasn’t even arrived!

Bo: Who’s the first major domino to fall this trade season?

Travis Sawchik: Hasn’t Seattle already answered this for us?

Travis Sawchik: But, really, what is Baltimore waiting for?

Travis Sawchik: Orioles are in dire shape as an overall organization. They’ve already waited too long to break this up

Bernie: Can you see Hiura eventually becoming peak Pedroia-lite?

Travis Sawchik: .383/.431/.550 slash line thus far in Double-A is pretty fun

Travis Sawchik: FG prospect team bumped him up to 21st on midseason rankings … looks like a future above-average regular for sure

NYTT: If Acuña comes back and provides above average production to replace Culbertson, how much does that increase this team’s ceiling? Seems like integrating him, Soroka, and an effective Gohara could strengthen the Braves significantly

Travis Sawchik: Nice thing about Braves is they have internal options they haven’t tapped into much .so that’s another reason I don’t think they have to make a big add. But, hey, if you can go get Manny Machado at 65 cents on the dollar as a rental, why not?

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: The Tigers are probably-definitely going to correct hard soon, but can we take a moment to appreciate how this tank-team is only 2.5 out from the divison in mid-May? Baseball is fun!

Travis Sawchik: I think this is probably as much a statement about an uneven performance from the Indians to date, a club that led baseball in run differential last season

Sir Nerdlington: Expanding the playoff picture should help players (fewer teams willing to tear it all down) and owners ($$).  Why isn’t this happening?  The NFL gives top seeds a first round bye.  There is precedent for a number not divisible by 4 to become playoff teams.

Travis Sawchik: When baseball gets to 32 teams, I see the playoff field probably expanding to 12 teams (2 byes per league)

Nicole: Would you consider Kluber’s start on Friday a bad game or a sign of trouble?  His average four-seamer was 92.8 mph and in the 6th inning he only threw one pitch 90 mph.

Travis Sawchik: It’s definitely something to keep an eye on. Astros and Indians have been leaning on their SPs more than other clubs. Average MLB pitching count is 90 this year, Indians and Astros around 100

Bill: Alex Kirilloff looking great. does 60 game power seem reachable?

Travis Sawchik: He’s one of the biggest first-half prospect risers

2110 Eutaw St: The void beckons, Travis. Let us lock arms and leap!

Travis Sawchik: I’m so sorry

Mike: Assuming all are healthy, which 2 Dodgers would not be starting: Kershaw, Hill, Wood, Maeda, Ryu, Stripling, Buehler?

Travis Sawchik: That’s tough. I feel like Stripling has pitched his way in. Depends on if Ryu can pickup where he left off … Good thing for Dodgers is when and if they become healthy(ier) they’ll have at least found some increased quality depth with Stripling

Yandy Diaz: Will Tito ever give me a chance to prove myself?  How much longer is he going to ride Kipnis?

Travis Sawchik: #FreeYandy

Travis Sawchik: While the approach is weird for a guy that looks like the incredible hulk, he’s still a high OBP guy that creates a lot of infield versatility

stever20: what would be the baseball equiv of what Phil Mickelson did on Saturday?  Would that be like the Yankees play back in 2004 where ARod swiped the ball out of the 1b hand?

Travis Sawchik: That was so weird .. probably something like that

Bill: Is Hoskins going to proceed from here as expected prior to the strat of year? 35 HR 100 RBI when all is said and done?

Travis Sawchik: The Hoskins Hype Train was really out of control but I think he’ll finish the season with fine numbers. I’d guess a bit short of that HR total, but near the RBI mark

Cost of the Game: All things being equal, it’s about as expensive as a family of four to go to game as it would be to buy an MLB.TV package and a high-definition television.

Travis Sawchik: This doesn’t make much sense … especially if you are paying for an upper-deck seat at a modern park which are about 150 feet above the playing surface

Travis Sawchik: I think the new stadiums have a lot of awful seats when it comes to the actual viewing experience

Travis Sawchik: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-generation-of-ballparks-is-pus…

Travis Sawchik: I’ve ranted about this

Norm Macdonald: Have the Tigers finally been able to develop an elite reliever? Joe Jimenez has looked fantastic

Travis Sawchik: FanGraphs might need a Joe Jimenez post soon. He’s been outstanding

Bill: Jack Flaherty a top 20 SP ROS yet?

Travis Sawchik: That’s high altitude but he’s been awesome. Top 35 for sure

Dylan: Machado almost has to market himself as a 3B this winter right? I get the added value of his bat at SS, but his defensive metrics are beyond putrid

Travis Sawchik: I think he can market as either … a 151 wRC+ will play at short even with a -14 DRS mark. I haven’t watched a ton of Orioles baseball this year so I haven’t seen much Machado at short … but his metrics at shortstop weren’t terrible prior to this season

Bernie: Is there a chance Baltimore doesnt even move Machado? If teams arent willing to send a big package for a rental, and the O’s exec does O’s exec things?

Travis Sawchik: Anything is possible, for sure

Rite Field: Who’s your favorite “pretty good at everything and therefore great overall” guy in the majors? Big Christian Yelich fan here.

Travis Sawchik: Personally, I think Yelich is more than a pretty good bat … but those well-rounded guys without loud tools can get overlooked

Q-Ball: Who is the ML regular you think least about?  For me, Jordy Mercer….

Travis Sawchik: Quite a back-handed compliment

James Leyland: Who has the prospects to afford Michael Fulmer at the deadline? The Yankees have been connected for a little while, but if they’re making Torres and Andjuar (justifiably) untouchable, they simply don’t have the pieces. Would love to see what offer ATL could make

Travis Sawchik: I think the Yankees have the assets to land Fulmer without moving Torres or Andjuar

Travis Sawchik: (or)

Travis Sawchik: ATL could play in that market, too, but I’m not sure it’s worth the price

Andy: Wife & I attended a few Cards games in STL last month.  We sat in each 100/200/300 levels.  My personal experience was that I preferred the 200/300 levels to being right behind the dugout.  Am I crazy?  What’s wrong with the new park?

Travis Sawchik: The higher you go up the modern park, the more removed you are from the game action

Travis Sawchik: PNC Park is the first stadium since Milwaukee County to be constructed with only two decks. For this reason among others, it’s not really close why it’s the No. 1 retropark

Travis Sawchik: My guess is the average seat at PNC Park is considerably closer to field of play than AT&T

Nick: What are your thoughts on Braves’ Newcomb and Folty? Sustainable or flash in the pan?

Travis Sawchik: Bullish

Evan: Reasonable return for ja happ?

Travis Sawchik: Happ should be a pretty expensive rental, I would guess

Charles Finley: Will the Mets actually trade anybody who’s not a pure rental (Familia, Asdrubal, Mesoraco), a la 2017?

Travis Sawchik: That’s perhaps the most interesting question of this deadline period. I think you can make a number of arguments from different positions and not be wrong

Travis Sawchik: If you have the guts to move a deGrom, you better not miss on the return

Charles Finley: Seemed curious that MIL added both Yelich and Cain over the winter.  Now these are their two best players, and the prospects traded seem to be doing a whole lotta not much for Miami.  Aggression pays off?

Travis Sawchik: So far, so good

dominik: is developing catcher framing the next big field for player development? so many catchers drafted fail and many mlb catchers suck at hitting because teams are no longer to let mike napoli types catch, wouldn’t it be a huge thing if would be able to draft non catching athletes and turn them into catchers (like posey)?

Travis Sawchik: I think the Astros have had some success with this. It could create a competitive advantage. Over the long term, though, it probably just raises the framing floor and the total competitive advantage is eroded

Mets: Can we get Hiura for Degrom?

Travis Sawchik: For an ace with multiple years of control, yeah, I wouldn’t start a package with less

CYC: Why do you think the  Josh Bell’s power still sleep…?

Travis Sawchik: I was hoping for more from Bell, a switch-hitter with good discipline and a frame that suggests major power … but he’s been a replacement-level player to date.

Travis Sawchik: Needs the power … and he just might not have a position

bosoxforlife: The Braves almost have to go after Machado. Is a three month rental worth a multiple prospect package of second liners, Fried, Sims, Allard, or, do they have to include even more, let us say Soroka?

Travis Sawchik: Machado makes sense depending on cost, of course. I think it could get done for second-liners. Orioles don’t have a to of leverage

Guest: How does the suspended NYY/WAS game work today? Tyler Austin isn’t even on the roster anymore, but was in the starting lineup for that game

Travis Sawchik: Great question! I sadly don’t have the answer at the moment

Joe: Sano for Gregory Polanco.  Who says no?  What’s the strategy w/ Polanco in Pittsburgh?

Travis Sawchik: Twins say no, I would guess

James Leyland: Re: Florial’s stock has been rapidly diminishing this year, and Frazier’s current trade value is very hard to pinpoint. Sheffield, Frazier, Abreu, and Estrada for Fulmer, who says no?

Travis Sawchik: I

Travis Sawchik: wouldn’t move Abreu in that deal

Guest: How does deGrom package compare to Sale package?

Travis Sawchik: deGrom has less control but, yeah, it has to be a monster package. And you can make an argument that the Mets should go full White Sox

dominik: how about making the strike zone smaller and at the same time deadening the ball? I know that sounds scary but middle pitches are hit out more often and if you deaden the ball just a little you could keep homers consistent and strikeouts down plus the deader ball would  incentivize pitchers to throw more over the plate which means walks don’t go up.  smaller zone with no change of balls means home run galore and pitchers probably nibble even more leading to more walks and longer games. but a smaller zone and a (reasonably) deader ball could create more pace and balls in play.

Travis Sawchik: Interesting thought. I think a smaller zone slows the game down even more. After all, it’s going to result in more balls, more hitter’s counts, more baserunners

Bo: Sure the Braves may be missing an elite SP, but there’s just not room for another arm in the rotation, is there?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I think that’s true

CamdenWarehouse: Why don’t the Orioles have leverage on moving Machado? isn’t it coming from the number of teams involved?

Travis Sawchik: I think it’s going to be difficult to get an overpay for 3+ months even if you have multiple bidders

TRANE: Padres have an awesome bullpen, who do you think gets moved?

Travis Sawchik: Looking at the recent deadline returns for high-end relievers (Chapman and Miller), I’d be looking to move Hand and Yates

DBRuns: With all this talk about tanking, isn’t it ironic that the team with the worst record in baseball (Baltimore) is one that was trying to win?

Travis Sawchik: [Thinking emoji face]

Post Malone: Is Harper still a $400MM player?

Travis Sawchik: I think yes … but his last two months are not really what you want if you’re going to make that ask

Matt: i know it’ll never happen, but what’s a “fair” price for deGrom to the Yanks. Yanks would have to give one of Andujar/Torres, Frazier, Sheffield, and 1-2 AA pitchers, no?

Travis Sawchik: The White Sox-Cubs recently made a major in-city trade. Why not? The Yankees have the assets to get it done for sure. I doubt Torres would be moved

Matt: As far as I understand, Austin simply gets replaced, and the game goes on

Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Matt

DBRuns: Jose Ramirez has 9.4 WAR over the last calendar year. Can we give this guy some love? He may be the new #1 on the trade value list.

Travis Sawchik: I believe Kiley is handling Trade Value duties this summer. Ramirez is top 5 for sure, I’d think. He’s under club control through 2023 at a total of $50m when including the options. Crazy good contract for club.

Bernie: Fangraphs is down

Bernie: Nevermin, Fangraphs is back up

Travis Sawchik: I noticed that. I think we’re OK now

Bo: Kent Hrbeck pushing Ron Gant off first in the World Series may be similar to Phil’s gaffe…

Travis Sawchik: Video?

Matt: More expensive rental – Happ or Ross?

Travis Sawchik: I have more trust in Happ

Bo: Which starter has been the biggest surprise (good and bad)?

Travis Sawchik: Stripling is up there, half of Phillies rotation …. I really thought Duffy was going to be consistently good. Maybe he really just has a pitch-tipping issue to solve?

hi: How do so many people get hurt playing baseball? 1/4 of my fantasy team is on the DL. It’s baseball….

Travis Sawchik: 162 games, 185 days … and that’s before spring training. It’s the ultimate grind

Bo: Here’s the Hrbek-Gant video:

Travis Sawchik: Woah

Rollie’s Mustache: It is possible that we see the best season in history (Trout) and the worst season in history (Davis) happen in the very same year. Pretty remarkable!

Travis Sawchik: Ha. Pretty amazing. Jay posted something on this, I believe

v2micca: Is Gsellman a candidate for the failed starter dominant reliever path?

Travis Sawchik: At least for the 80-grade social media path …

Travis Sawchik:

Travis Sawchik: Speaking of Jose Ramirez … A great pic to leave you with:

Travis Sawchik:

Bernie: Joulys Chacin threw a splitter for the first time in his last start, 26 TIMES. Have you ever seen that? That plus he has the 2nd best slider pitch rating from Fangraphs. Is that signing the best under the radar signing of the off season?

Travis Sawchik: Interesting!

v2micca: Braves fans are still bitter about Hrbek

Keith Lockhart: 7 year old me hated Kent Hrbek more than any human being on the planet

Travis Sawchik: On that bitter note, let’s reconvene next week

Travis Sawchik: If you’re on the fence about attending the FanGraphs meetup in Denver this weekend (June 22nd) I suggest you get off the fence. CARSON WILL BE THERE. JEFF, TOO!

Travis Sawchik: Until next time, be good and do good