Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat — 7/23/18
12:04 |
: Greetings
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12:04 |
: We’re 100 games into the season….hard to believe
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12:04 |
: Let’s get to it
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12:05 |
: Do you think this hot streak is going to keep Pittsburgh from selling? They’re not out of the wild card yet.
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12:05 |
: if Pirates somehow take 2/3 from Indians I’ll get excited. Expecting 0/3. Regardless, I’m wondering if Hamels would OK a trade to Pittsburgh. He’s from San Diego AND really intelligent… just like Williams, Brault and Musgrove.
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12:05 |
: The Pirates’ FG playoff odds have jumped tp 13%. It’s still a long shot
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12:06 |
: The Pirates, by about every measure, are an average team. 51-49 record, -3 run differential. While they could make a postseason run, how much do you bet on a .500 team?
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12:07 |
: I think Pirates have to consider being a seller and a buyer at this deadline
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12:07 |
: What are your thoughts on Mejia? Does he stick at C?
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12:08 |
: I think he can stick at catcher. To be a special player he has to stick at catcher. The arm is an elite toom and BP’s minor league framing metrics suggest he’s at least a competent receiver
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12:08 |
: I spoke to a couple evaluators who think he has a chance to stick there
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12:08 |
: I think he has more power potential down the road
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12:08 |
: How did the Padres do in the Brad Hand trade?
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12:10 |
: It all depends on whether Mejia sticks at catcher, I think. He should hit. I like the general approach of targetting quality over quantity given the depth of their system. I like targetting upside, in general. But they didn’t do quite as well as the Yankees have done in selling relief assets. Hand isn’t peak Andrew Miller, of course, but he’s very good. And I like Cimber
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12:11 |
: I understand for both clubs. The Padres should move their relief assets, imo. Pretty fair deal, maybe slight edge to Indians
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12:11 |
: Not a question, but I’m just really, really happy that Jason Heyward is an above average hitter again. He’s not exactly raking, but hovering around a 110 wRC+ is great to see. He seems like a good guy and a hard worker, so it’s a nice story.
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12:12 |
: One of the strangest career arcs this century, for sure. Maybe he has recovered the hit tool but where is the power? I still remember this guy coming up and blasting a 470-foot shot on one of his first MLB swings. So interesting that that hitter disappeared
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12:12 |
: What are your thoughts on Shane Bieber moving forward? Is he the second coming of Corey Kluber, or a control specialist SP 4/5 with low upside?
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12:13 |
: Starting with plus (maybe plus-plus) command and three or four viable pitches is a good starting point. I’m not going to put a Kluber comp on anyone, he’s an outlier story, but if he can sharpen an offspeed pitch or two he can be more than a back-end starter. His floor is a No. 4-type starting pitcher
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12:14 |
: You believing Dickerson right now and going forward?
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12:14 |
: Yeah. He’s made some very real adjustments. He was one of the worst elevated four-seam hitters in baseball last year and he’s closed that hole for the most part. I wasn’t sure he could do that. Smart hitter.
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12:16 |
: What should the Padres do next?
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12:16 |
: Keep selling relievers
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12:16 |
: Stock for Francisco Mejia going down?
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12:17 |
: I think it’s down a tick. There’s obviously concern about his future position (though I think he can catch), and his offensive approach has raised some questions this year. I think he’s chased out-of-zone quite a bit
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12:18 |
: Do you think players ever brag about who they got traded for? Like would players brag about getting traded for a high caliber player like Machado?
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12:18 |
: I would brag about getting traded for Manny Machado
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12:18 |
: Players certainly follow whom they’ve been traded for. Imagine being traded for someone in your office. You’d be following their career and questioning the value of the deal
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12:19 |
: When are the Padres going to be good?
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12:20 |
: I think the Padres can be competitive, contending for a playoff berth, in 2020-2021ish
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12:20 |
: Loaded farm system. They need to figure out of they have some other answers that are the ML-level
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12:21 |
: It probably can’t just be the farm, though. They’ll need to find value FA signings and value in the trade market. Dave Cameron should help.
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12:21 |
: sheffield, frazier, andujar, acevedo for Blake Snell. Who says no? Yanks or Tampa
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12:23 |
: Hmmm. That’s a lot to part with for the Yankees, but Snell is becoming a legit ace. Something like that could make sense for each clubs
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12:23 |
: I’m getting more excited about the Rays’ system. Anyone see what Wander Franco is up as a 17-year-old?
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12:24 |
: .379/.417/.647 slash line through his first 125 plate appearances in rookie ball
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12:24 |
: Could the Phillies look to trade Cesar Hernandez this deadline? Kingery could slide back into his natural position or perhaps they swing a deal for Merrifield. Thanks.
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12:25 |
: I think the Royals ought to sell high on Merrifield and he could fit many clubs including Philly
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12:25 |
: Do Cody Allen and Andrew Miller receive Qualifying Offers? If so (and Brantley) could the Indians be more willing to part with a couple prospects for upgrades knowing theyll receive draft pick compensation?
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12:26 |
: I don’t think QO comp is a major consideration at this point. I think a small-budget club has to be careful with handing out QOs to relievers. I don’t think Allen would be tagged. Miller, if healthy and elite when he returns, would be more likely
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12:26 |
: Matt Carpenter is now the NL WAR leader. Raise your hand if you saw that coming after his April.
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12:27 |
: Homering every day helps
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12:27 |
: Carpenter is a bit under-appreciated, I think
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12:28 |
: I play in a 12 team, 6×6 (std categories + OPS & K/9), keeper league (keep 8). I can trade my Jack Flaherty ($6) for his Carlos Carrasco ($31). I’m in it to win it this year, and Flaherty would be my 8th keeper maybe. Looking at Flaherty’s peripherals has me really excited for the rest of the year with him (low xwOBA, low Contract%, low Hard%, high Soft%, etc). Am I nuts to think that Flaherty could be just as good as Carrasco ROS and therefore not do this trade?
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12:28 |
: At that price, I’d keep Flaherty. He’s really good.
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12:29 |
: What is taking so long for Britton to get moved?
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12:29 |
: Bidding war?
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12:29 |
: I have no idea but he’ll be moved
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12:31 |
: Which Padre pitcher has the highest ceiling outside if Gore?
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12:31 |
: Paddack and his changeup are very interesting
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12:31 |
: He doesn’t have the pedigree but he’s been one of the most dominant minor league pitchers in 2018
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12:32 |
: Did the Padres get fleeced sending Hand to CLE?
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12:33 |
: I think it’s a pretty fair deal, slight edge for Cleveland
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12:33 |
: If Mejia stays at catcher and becomes an all-star, it’s a big win for SD
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12:34 |
: I’m not sure what else was out there, though. In theory, I like the idea of a rebuilding club trading a reliever(s) for a top 50 prospect
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12:34 |
: I’d like the Phils to pursue Drew steckenrider. What would he cost in terms of prospects? Maybe evens Dietrich-Steckenrider combo. Thanks.
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12:35 |
: Dietrich is one of the more underrated trade deadline assets for potential purchase
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12:35 |
: 125 wRC+ and can play all for corners
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12:35 |
: Who is your favorite Padre?
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12:35 |
: Paddack #FringeFive
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12:36 |
: would you drop Carlos Santana for C J Cron?
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12:36 |
: no
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12:37 |
: Is Gsellman the closer in NY? His multiple innings use has me skeptical.
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12:37 |
: I’d keep him in a role that allows for more flexibility
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12:38 |
: Who has the better season the rest of the way- Harper or Soto?
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12:38 |
: Who had this question being asked back in April?
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12:38 |
: Soto is proving there will be baseball life in DC if harper leaves
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12:38 |
: A record number of questions? Has Travis Sawchik got a new competitive flame?
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12:39 |
: We always need to be pushing ourselves, right?
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12:39 |
: Any good news in Hosmer’s huge contract?
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12:39 |
: Not really
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12:40 |
: McCutchen to indians possible? They lack quality OF and Giants may sell to retool for next year (read: won’t sell Bumgarner)
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12:41 |
: That could make some sense. The McCutchen we once knew is not coming back but he could have a 120 wRC+ burst in him and he could perhaps fit in center given the high-K nature of the Indians’ staff
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12:41 |
: There seem to be a lot of reports coming out that Mejia cannot stay behind plate and that his bat will play down at other positions. What do you think?
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12:41 |
: That’s the downside. The bat is probably only special at catcher
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12:42 |
: Hey Trav. Please help! In a 16 team redraft. I have a big trade outlined and part of it is I give David Price for his Stripling. My question is will the Dodgers limit innings on Strip? Merci Beaucoup.
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12:42 |
: I believe in Stripling
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12:42 |
: I’m not sure I can help on the innings limitation aspect
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12:43 |
: What type of return would Kirby Yates net?
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12:43 |
: I’d want another top 100 prospect
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12:43 |
: Thinking about the Machado trade…given his extreme home/road splits this year and the fact that Dodger Stadium is much less of a hitter’s park than Camden, might his offensive production decline at all?
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12:44 |
: Most hitters have significant home/road splits. It’s tied to umpire bias more than the part in most cases. I wouldn’t be concerned with the ballpark change much at all
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12:44 |
: Timing for Eloy?
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12:45 |
: He’s a monster but there’s no reason to start that service time clock unless he’s willing to, say, sign a 10-year deal
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12:46 |
: When will Madrigal go to High A?
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12:46 |
: He’s not being challenged … no strikeouts in 40 PAs?
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12:47 |
: Jerry dipoto has acknowledged that they don’t really have the prospects to make a big trade but they do have salary flexibility. what do you think about the Yankees sending Jacoby Ellsbury and his salary plus Tommy kahnle to the Mariners for some low-level minor leaguer. it would basically just be a salary dump. Is kahnle worth the $63 million?
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12:48 |
: The Mariners might want to look at an NBA-style trade but Kahnle is not the piece you want back for taking on $63 million
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12:48 |
: Favorite restaurant in Crocker Park to frequent? Just had Viengs yesterday and it was absolutely fantastic.
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12:49 |
: Thanks for the tip! I haven’t been. I’ve been pretty generic in Crocker Park, probably having been to Yard House and that burger spot more than any other palce
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12:49 |
: *place
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12:49 |
: Better defensive OF — Broxton, Yelich, Cain — Betts, Bradley, Benintendi
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12:49 |
: MKE
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12:50 |
: The Nats should trade Harper. Bear with me. Soto, Robles and Eaton are locked up for at least three more years (Taylor two more). Robles is projected to be worth 14.7 WAR over the next five years. Harper is certainly expected to be worth more than that, but will cost around $400m. Essentially, Harper is comparatively worth less to the Nats than just about any other team. They would be much better off investing a third of that $400m into extending Rendon (no 3B prospects in the pipeline) and the remainder in their starting rotation (Gio and Hellickson depart this winter, plus Strasburg could opt out next year). Hell, based off how Harper has played this season, there might not even be any drop-off THIS SEASON swapping Harper’s playing time for Taylor+Robles. Tell me I’m not crazy.
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12:50 |
: Harper doesn’t have a ton of trade value. They’re better off just hoping he gets his A-game back by October and taking the QO comp
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12:51 |
: Might the Braves give Markakis a QO? Would he take it?
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12:51 |
: Dan will take all you Markakis questions
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12:51 |
: How many innings should we realistically expect Klubes to throw tonight? I’d assume they will be conservative with him so he doesn’t re-aggravate his knee. Heading down to Progressive Field today and tomorrow so hoping for a few gems from Kluber and Bieber.
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12:51 |
: I’d prefer to see Kluber given more rest. There’s no reason for the Indians to really push anyone
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12:52 |
: Where do you stand on framing value? Jay Jaffe included it in his most recent article. If he’s including it, shouldn’t it just be a part of fWAR?
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12:52 |
: I think framing remains a very important skill
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12:52 |
: What’s the honest assessment of BOS’s lineup vis-a-vis NYY’s, HOU’s, and CLE’s? (SP and RP are other matters entirely.)
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12:52 |
: CLE is a step behind BOS-NYY-HOU which are all fairly close in efficiency
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12:53 |
: The postseason in the AL should be pretty awesome
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12:53 |
: What kind of return would Zack Wheeler get?
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12:53 |
: Wheeler is trending up, I’d buy
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12:54 |
: The Mariners and Athletics look to be in a dogfight for the WC2 spot. Who has the edge?
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12:54 |
: I think the A’s are a slightly better team but the Mariners have a three-game lead..it’s going to be very close. Slight edge to Mariners
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12:55 |
: But if Paxton’s injury issues pop up …. A’s
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12:55 |
: In fairness, Heyward’s first major league AB home run came against Carlos Zambrano. Still a majestic HR though.
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12:55 |
: Fair
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12:55 |
: Jerry DiPoto has to be pacing the floor in Seattle after the Athletics acquired Familia. Who will the Mariners add in the next week or so?
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12:56 |
: Mariners are running out of trade assets. They might have to be willing to take on a bad contract to get better as was mentioned earlier in the chat
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12:56 |
: I’m starting to think that the old adage that in the playoffs, great pitching beats great hitting and defense is everything, is not quite right. I think it’s now, great relievers (and true SP aces) beat great hitters until they burn out.
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12:57 |
: That’s kind of what we saw last year …. The AL playoff field is going to be nuts
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12:57 |
: Harvey’s last start aside, it seems as if the Harvey/Mesoraco trade has been win win. And both guys will be trade again, so I suppose the jury is still out on who got the better deal? I guess not really a question…
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12:58 |
: An astute observation
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12:59 |
: How has the new Marlins FO done so far? Like, objectively.
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1:01 |
: On one hand, they’re not the worst team in baseball. They’ve beaten the lowest bar of expectations in Year 1. On the other hand, I don’t think they did well enough in moving their biggest pieces this offseason
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1:01 |
: Does it matter to FG if I don’t bother to sign into my account when I visit the site? Do you guys collect any meaningful data on member engagement, etc, that I could help with by actually logging in regularly?
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1:02 |
: Hmmm. A better question for mgmt. I will pass it up the chain
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1:02 |
: Why is Atlanta not buying any of these super cheap elite RP options? Herrera and Familia gone for peanuts.. Braves have a super deep farm.. and they continue to roll out one of the leagues worst bullpens while sitting in a great playoff position. I love me some Peter Moylan, but maybe as a coach not a RP on a team trying to win games!
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1:02 |
: Yeah, ATL ideally would upgrade pen
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1:03 |
: do the jays have enough sellable talent to receive top 100 prospects this deadline?
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1:04 |
: Probably not. Happ is a FA to be and the Mariners are out of top 100 prospects
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1:04 |
: Aside from getting Cano back, what’s the biggest thing the Ms can do to hold off Oakland?
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1:05 |
: Have Paxton healthy and on the mound
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1:05 |
: Can you think of a more unlikely power hitter than Jose Ramirez? Ever? This is a guy who had 13 CAREER minor league HR. 19 HR over his first 1,253 AB. Now he’s the first in MLB to 30, in an era where HR are more prominent than ever? What a weird game…
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1:05 |
: It’s crazy. Certainly one of the more unlikely power breakouts ever
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1:05 |
: Have you noticed David Fletcher? His plate discipline skills are borderline elite, and he hit for a good amount of power in AAA this year
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1:05 |
: Yes, because I read the FringeFive
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1:06 |
: The Eric Hosmer experience is going about as poorly as it possibly could. Thoughts/
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1:06 |
: If only someone had seen this coming …
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1:07 |
: If only he had been Dave Cameron’s No. 1 free agent landmine …
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1:07 |
: Everyone has been talking about Bichette & Guerro super sons duo, where is the love for Cavan Biggio? This is a super sons trio!!!!!
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1:07 |
: #FringeFive
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1:07 |
: You forgot to mention Franco plays SS and is a switch hitter too. What a dream!
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1:08 |
: He has chance to be the No. 1 prospect in baseball a year from now
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1:08 |
: I guess the Rockies are in on Gausman and Bundy? Why? Mid-to-high-4 FIPs don’t exactly scream, “Bring me to Coors Field!”
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1:08 |
: The Orioles should move those guys … and the Rockies are always going to need pitching so I can see why there would be talk
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1:09 |
: how is my batting looking
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1:09 |
: 143 wRC+!
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1:09 |
: Pretty good
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1:10 |
: You can argue Ohtani has been a better hitter than pitcher (when healthy) to date
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1:11 |
: Some of your colleagues say Seager is very much an overrated asset dynasty leagues. What say you? Gotta be top-5 SS, right?
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1:11 |
: This is a good time to buy Seager stock
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1:11 |
: What is taking so long for Realmuto to get moved?
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1:11 |
: No idea
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1:11 |
: A number of contenders have needed catching help since the offseason
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1:11 |
: Is Zach Eflin legit? Is he as good as Flaherty and Taillon?
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1:12 |
: He’s looking pretty legit. I need to see more before putting him in that class but he’s at least a useful mid-rotation piece
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1:12 |
: Would you rather be the Rays or the Pirates going forward? This assumes that you could be a baseball team instead of a great human, of course.
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1:12 |
: Can I move the Rays out of the AL East?
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1:13 |
: I like the Rays’ U25 talent better, so I’d probably pick the Rays
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1:14 |
: Paddack isn’t a reliever in the minors!
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1:14 |
: Yes. I am aware. Mistyped. Fixed!
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1:14 |
: How bullish (or bearish) are you on Eloy Jimenez in a 5×5 keeper roto?
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1:14 |
: As bullish as you can be
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1:15 |
: What would you rate this chat so far on 20-80 prospect scale in terms of Questions asked, Duration, Spelling/Grammar, Attitude, Sustainability? Thx.
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1:15 |
: A 60, a little Padres-heavy …but they’ve been in the news
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1:16 |
: Couldn’t the Indians have held on to Mejia and paid the minimal price on Herrera and Familia
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1:16 |
: I’m sure they called around but I can understand why they would prefer Hand/Cimber
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1:16 |
: I saw Cubs fans arguing that Kyle Schwarber should be off limits for deGrom. Thats pretty ridiculous, right. Regardless of his progress his profile isn’t very hard to find.
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1:16 |
: I’d include Schwarber for deGrom
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1:17 |
: Better out of no where SP Stripling, Eflin or Bieber?
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1:17 |
: Stripling
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1:17 |
: But all three are very valuable
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1:17 |
: How does the SD foursome of Gore, Quantrill, Morejon and Baez stack up against Atl’s Wright, Anderson, Allard and Wentz?
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1:17 |
: Paddack, too!
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1:17 |
: Great groups, I prefer SD, I think
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1:18 |
: Who has the best minor league team name?
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1:18 |
: It was just for a day last week but it was the Charleston Boiled Peanuts
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1:18 |
: Alright folks, thanks for participating in this 60-grade chat
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1:19 |
: Until next week, be good and do good
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A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.