Trio of Twins

The Minnesota Twins have been one of the more surprising stories in baseball this year, given that relatively few people gave them any sort of significant shot at contending at all. Yet, as we approach the 100-game mark of the season, the Twinkies are 55-43 and sit just a half-game behind the White Sox for first place in the AL Central; additionally, they are only one game behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card. For a team performing well to be considered a surprising story, the implication exists that either the franchise floundered in the recent past, like the Rays, or that its components are largely unknown commodities to the more general public.

Since the Twins have made the playoffs quite a bit this decade the surprise factor stems from their players not receiving massive amounts of publicity. Ipso facto, while most people could recite the 25-man roster for numerous teams in the league I would be willing to wager one of the toughest would be the Gardenhire Gang. Think about it. Their top slugger won the home run derby and the commentators present couldn’t even pronounce his name… let alone remember he won an MVP not too long ago. Their starting centerfielder is more commonly known outside of Minnesota as “that Johan trade guy.” And the only members of their starting pitching staff most people know about are Livan Hernandez, who doesn’t deserve to be one of the only members recognized, and Boof Bonser, whose name is, well, Boof. Point blank, you don’t forget a guy named Boof.

This last notion is really a shame because their success in the starting rotation has largely been reliant upon the performance of the other three: Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey (Glen Perkins you get honorable mention). This trio does not possess lights out “stuff” nor do they fire the ball past hitters with plus-fastballs. Instead, they limit their baserunners and have been quite adept at stranding those that do happen to reach base. Baker has been better at this than his two colleagues, stranding 82.4% of runners, a number behind only John Lackey at the top of the AL leaderboard. A number like this certainly isn’t expected to be sustained, so his performance from here on out will likely hinge upon just how far that rate drops.

None of the three had extremely significant service time so the reliability of their pre-season projections was not as high as, say, Livan’s, but they have essentially either matched these projections or have outdone them in the first 59% of the season. Going forward, Baker is projected at an FIP of 3.90, with Blackburn at 3.93 and Slowey at 4.12, all very respectable numbers. Their strikeout to walk ratios are not expected to be as high as we have seen thus far but are not likely to plummet all the way down towards J.C. Romero-ville. Lastly, their BABIPs are all either on the average or right around the corner so they haven’t necessarily been of extreme benefit in that department.

Here are their numbers this year, followed by what can be expected from here on out:

Scott Baker (now): 3.99 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 4.86 K/BB, 1.52 BB/9
Scott Baker (2nd): 3.90 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 3.08 K/BB, 2.13 BB/9

Nick Blackburn (now): 3.86 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 3.56 K/BB, 1.37 BB/9
Nick Blackburn (2nd): 3.93 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 2.58 K/BB, 2.16 BB/9

Kevin Slowey (now): 3.98 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 4.69 K/BB, 1.42 BB/9
Kevin Slowey (2nd): 4.12 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB, 2.13 BB/9

Their projections from here on out are calling for higher walk rates which in turn raises the WHIP and lowers the K/BB. This means more baserunners will reach and their barometric success (such as ERA) will be determined by an ability to strand them. There are plenty of “if’s” that must be met for the Twins to sustain their success and have a legitimate shot at winning the division, but I don’t consider it to be out of reach. Baker, Blackburn, and Slowey might not be the most well-known, or most exciting pitchers in all of baseball, but they have definitely been solid performers expected to continue producing at a quality level, most likely under the radar.