Troy Tulowitzki Provides a Clue

Every year, up until this one when he retired, Carlos Quentin was my guy. You know the one. “This is it, guys! This is the year Carlos Quentin stays healthy for a full season and hits 40 bombs!” I’d say in March. That never happened, of course, because Carlos Quentin never stopped getting hit by pitches and injuring himself in other ways, but Quentin was one of the classic “when/if” players. “When he plays a full season… If he could just stay healthy…” Quentin was always productive on the field, it’s just he was never actually on the field.

To some extent, Troy Tulowitzki has had a similar career. Tulowitzki’s injury history isn’t quite as extensive as Quentin’s, but his on-field production, when healthy, has always lent itself to a similar “when/if” discussion each offseason. Point is, with Tulowitzki comes some manner of certainty, due to his obvious talent, but also seemingly endless untapped potential.

This year, though, for the first time since his age-23 season, Tulowitzki’s season-end numbers were just average, as indicated by his season-end wRC+ of exactly 100. Add in the shoulder injury that Tulowitzki’s currently playing through, and the Blue Jays have been left playing the “when/if” game that’s typically reserved for the offseason.

So right now, with Tulowitzki, you’re looking for clues. Clues that the perennial preseason when/if MVP candidate is still in there, lurking underneath the cracked shoulder blade and the underwhelmingly average season. It’s a never-ending upside game with Tulowitzki, and clues are the currency for upside. As long as the Blue Jays have a couple clues, they know that, while the consistency may not be there, Tulowitzki still owns the potential to be a game-changer on any given trip to the plate. Last night, the Blue Jays received a clue:

Now, you could argue that any home run could count as a clue, but I want my clues to have a little more substance than that. For my clues, I want to see a hitter briefly resemble the old version of himself, by doing one of the things that once made him special that suddenly went missing. Had Tulowitzki pulled this same game-breaking three-run homer down the left field line on a hanging curveball middle-middle, I wouldn’t count it as a clue, because that’s not what once made Troy Tulowitzki special. No, I’m counting it as a clue, because of this:

And because of this:

The latter image depicts Lorenzo Cain — a center fielder — watching a ball go over a fence — the center field fence. Tulowitzki, as a Blue Jay, had never homered to center field. Tulowitzki, as a Blue Jay, had never homered to right field. Tulowitzki, as a Rockie, had homered to center field and right field plenty, just not in 2015.

Observe, Tulowitzki’s home runs from 2012 to -14 on the left, and from this season on the right:

Like most power hitters, the majority of Tulowitzki’s power comes from the pull field. But Tulowitzki, the good Tulowitzki, could also go up the middle and the opposite way with authority. This year’s Tulowitzki, the average Tulowitzki, didn’t show that ability. This year’s Tulowitzki barely even hit anything out to the power alley in left center field. The only traces of power from Tulo this season came from dead-pull pitches straight down the left field line.

Another way of looking at this is: prior to 2015, Tulowitzki’s isolated slugging percentage to center field was over .200. This year, Tulowitzki’s ISO to center field was .065, also known as “Ben Revere power.”

“Home run to center field showcasing more than Ben Revere power” is our first clue that Real Tulowitzki still exists under the injury. Our second clue is the pitch that Tulowitzki hit out. A growing trend in the MLB is an increase of low-ball power hitters, with Mike Trout being the prototype. As pitchers were taught to pound the bottom of the zone, hitters began adjusting, and the league is now full of powerful low-ball hitters.

Tulowitzki, in that regard, is old school. Tulowitzki’s strength, throughout his career, has been the high ball. By crowding the plate with his closed, upright stance, Tulo has always been able to cover the plate and extend the arms to get around on high fastballs, and a cursory glance at his career heat map reveals his sweet spot, which is right where Cueto’s pitch wound up:

Tulowitzki’s strengths, across the board, have been neutralized this season, so it should come as no surprise that this particular strength has been reduced, too.

The pitch that Tulowitzki hit off Cueto was a fastball, in the upper-third of the zone. On a related note, Tulowitzki’s slugging percentages against fastballs in the upper-third, by year:

• 2009: .699
• 2010: .655
• 2011: .757
• 2012: .500
• 2013: .699
• 2014: .778 (!)
• 2015: .426 🙁

Put more simply: Tulowitzki, before this season, slugged .652 against high fastballs. This season, he slugged just .426 on high fastballs, but you couldn’t tell based on the swing depicted above. That’s your second clue.

All year long, two of the things that made Troy Tulowitzki a special player went missing. The ability to hit the elevated fastball with authority was gone, and, as a result, the only time he really hit balls with authority were to the pull field. This was all before he hurt his shoulder in mid-September, too. For all we know, these struggles existed with a relatively clean bill of health, and now Tulowitzki doesn’t even have that.

There’s varying levels of playing through an injury, though. Sometimes when a guy plays through an injury, he’s a complete shell of his former self, unable to do any of the things that once made him special. That version of a player typically does more harm than good. The version with which a team can live is the one who can still do those special things, sporadically. That can still pop up from time to time and make a difference. Last night, Tulowitzki popped up and made that difference. Perhaps more importantly, the way he did it resembled his former self, serving as an encouraging clue, for the Blue Jays, that he still possesses the capability in this postseason to do it again.