Wakefield the Great

Trailing the Rays 2-1, The Red Sox are sending Tim Wakefield to the hill tonight to oppose Andy Sonnanstine in Game Four of the ALCS. Earlier today, Dave documented the offensive woes of last year’s World Series victors, but on top of that, to advance to the World Series, their starting pitching will also need to be sharp. Wakefield, even at 42 years old, can dominate the best of them with that incredible knuckleball, and he will shoulder the responsibility of helping the Sox knot this series up at two games apiece. Much has been discussed about Wakefield’s playoff numbers and his performance against the Rays in the regular season, but honestly, that should not be taken into account.

With such small samples of performance, we cannot accurately predict or understand how a player will perform in a playoff game like this. Lester shut the Rays down to the tune of a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings this season, before giving up four runs in 5 2/3 innings yesterday. Ryan Dempster was untouchable at Wrigley Field and managed to touch everything in Game One of that NLDS. His postseason gamelogs show that he can either be hit or miss, shutting a team down, or allowing plenty of damage in a short time-span. The Rays, once on base, will try to wreak havoc, swiping as often as possible due to the amount of time it takes for Wakefield to get the ball to home plate.

If there is pressure on anyone in Game Four, it is on catcher Kevin Cash, who will need to, well, catch the knucklers from Wakefield. As simple a task as that seems, it is actually so difficult that Doug Mirabelli was able to extend his career by about four seasons due to his ability to handle Wakefield. Back to Timmy, though. The 16-year veteran does not nearly get the credit he deserves, and his 2008 proved to be one of his best seasons this decade.

He posted a 4.13 ERA, 4.84 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP in 181 innings this season. His K/BB was a tick under 2.0, thanks to a 5.82 K/9 and a 2.98 BB/9. The WHIP is his best since 2002, as is his .247 BABIP. Wakefield’s 71.9% strand rate is the best since 2005, and he produced a 1.60 WPA/LI, deeming him over a win and a half better than an average pitcher this season. Wakefield allowed very few baserunners and stranded a much higher percentage than in recent years. On top of all of this is the odd change in balls in play rates, as his GB/FB fell to a decade-low 0.73, while hsi FB% rose to a decade-high 48%. With about a league average 9.1% HR/FB, this resulted in a higher FIP and HR/9 due to the drastic rise in flyballs.

For his career, Wakefield has a 4.14 WPA/LI, making him just about four wins better than an average pitcher in this span, which makes sense. Wakefield has pretty much been an average pitcher, mixing points of dominance with some clunkers, but people often forget that average players possess plenty of value. He has a career 4.32 ERA and 4.72 FIP, along with a 1.35 WHIP and 71% strand rate. He will not make the Hall of Fame, but will definitely go down as one of the great knuckleballers of our time, and his ability to fill in as a starter or reliever for the Red Sox makes him extremely valuable to their team, year in and year out. Only time will tell how much longer he sticks around, but tonight will be a very important start for the two-time World Series winner.