What the Detroit Tigers Should Do
Overview
The Tigers have exceeded the expectations of many (including myself) in 2010 by not only winning, but by being in the thick of the AL Central race, going back-and-forth with the Twins this week for the divisional lead. Yes, they’ve outplayed their run differential by 3 games, but those wins are “in the bank.” Some regression is to be expected, so the Tigers should be looking to make marginal improvements to improve their chances.
Buy or Sell
Although the Tigers aren’t as talented as the Twins, they’ve managed to stay with them so far. They also have an older roster that isn’t going to get any better (as a group) than they are now, so they really should go for it. There are some areas they can improve to can better their odds of making the playoffs a fair bit without crippling themselves for the future.
While relievers are often overvalued in relation to how much they can help in a partial season, in the Tigers’ case they could probably help themselves more than most teams given how thin their bullpen is beyond closer Jose Valverde, especially after Joel Zumaya’s season-ending injury. There should be plenty of sellers this season with relievers available that won’t cost the Tigers much in terms of talent or money; it shouldn’t be difficult to improve on the likes of Eddie Bonine, Brad Thomas, Ryan Perry, et. al.
Staff ace Justin Verlander projects to pitch better the rest of the season and Max Scherzer is coming around after a rough start to the season, but the Tigers could improve the middle and back of their starting rotation relatively cheaply. Jeremy Bonderman should be adequate if he can stay healthy, but with Rick Porcello in the minors after terrible struggles and Armando Galarraga returning to the reality of being Armando Galararaga, this is an area the Tigers should look at. They probably aren’t in a position to trade for one of the big name starters out there, but adding another league average starter to go every fifth day could potentially add a couple of wins down the stretch without mortgaging the future.
The situation with the non-pitchers is a curious one: they have a few good players and one great one (Miguel Cabrera), but then they also have some mediocre role players like Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago who could be improved upon, but are good enough that it probably wouldn’t be worth the wins that would be added given what it would cost to do so at in-demand positions like third base and shortstop. Barring an opportunity for a trade they can’t pass up, Detroit should be looking to proactively maximize the talent they have. Austin Jackson‘s post-April offensive performance is a good reminder that while Brennan Boesch’s BABIP-fueled contributions are “in the bank,” they aren’t likely to continue, and they should be ready to give more of Boesch’s playing time to Ryan Raburn (who’s a much better hitter than he’s shown so far this season), for example. Another idea along these lines would be to give Scott Sizemore another chance at second base (that was cut short at barely over 100 PAs in part because of bad luck on BABIP) and give Boesch’s at-bats to newly-minted “second baseman” Carlos Guillen, a good hitter whose fragile health the Tigers should be looking to preserve. If Sizemore could hit adequately, this would also improve their infield defense.
On the Farm
Beyond the Box Score’s pre-season aggregate farm system rankings had the Tigers’ system at #21. Jacob Turner and Casey Crosby are young pitchers with a lot of upside that the Tigers shouldn’t be looking to move. After that, there are some useful parts and some long-term potential. Some of the useful parts are decent enough and yet aren’t so great that the Tigers should be afraid to move them in the right offer (e.g., Wilkin Ramirez).
Budget
For all the off-season hand-wringing about their budget, the Tigers 2010 payroll is about $134 million dollar, according to Cot’s. Big contracts for Verlander, Cabrera, Guillen, and likely Ordonez (if the Tigers keep winning, his 2011 option will vest, although that hardly seems as devastating as it did the last time it happened) are still on the books for 2011, but Bonderman’s $12.5 million, Johnny Damon’s $8 million, and Brandon Inge’s $6.6 million, among others, are coming off the books. If the Tigers payroll stays at about the same level, they should have some leeway in that regard in 2011.
Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.
I’m well aware that Boesch is sustaining his high batting average due to BABIP. But regress it, and you still end up with a .290 hitter with a big ISO and a passable eye. Not the kind of guy you want to take out of the lineup for Carlos Guillen. Boesch will outslug Guillen by .100 points and Guillen’s, say, .020 difference in OBP doesn’t make up for it.
I also can’t see sitting Boesch now to get more playing time for Raburn or Scott Sizemore.
Also, Sizemore’s demotion wasn’t just due to his batting. His fielding range was poor, something that struck observers subjectively and comes through in the UZR statistics, to the extent one can trust a small sample size:
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Tigers&pos=2b&stats=fld&qual=0&type=1&season=2010&month=0
Sizemore is just one option (when he gets healthy) they should look to for marginal improvements. His UZR sample is small enough to be basically irrelevant, although Guillen has a pretty big sample of being a bad 3B and SS, and 2B won’t be any different. Also important is that it seems like 2B would be a bad idea for an injury-prone player like Guillen, especially if he’s just learning it. His bat is valuable to the Tigers, and losing it could cost them. Not that it’s a terrible idea in the abstract to try him at 2B when the other option is Ryan Raburn…
I concur also. People have been saying that this is only a “hot streak” but it has been going on for 2 months now. Of course,he isn’t a .330 but to predict he is going to fall off the face of the planet (.247 AVG .398 SLG)) is a bit much. Especially when there are zero signs of a regression and his replacements can’t even hit at a replacement level.
His career minor league ISO is 161 (273/319/434). Regression will likely take a toll on more than just his BABIP.
Thanks for the comment
BABIP isn’t the only thing that regresses, though. And regression to the mean is just part of the issue — there’s little in Boesch’s minor league history that suggests he is this skilled.
We don’t need to worry about OBP vs. SLG. woBA (i.e., linear weights) clears it up right away. We don’t have a ZiPS RoS projection posted for Boesch that I can see, which is too bad, but let’s take a look at CHONE’s updated projections from June 1 (Boesch has 100 more PA since then, of course, but while that’s not much of a sample, well, his 225 PA so far this season aren’t, either):
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/june2010.htm
Boesch: .247/.281/.398, -18 runs (18 below average) per 150 games
Guillen: .271/.350/.438, +10/150
Now, CHONE is relying on heavily on MLEs for Boesch, and he does have 100 more MLB since then, but even if you think that’s a significant sample, do you really think it’s enough to make for a 25-30 runs/150 difference?
I understand why the Tigers are riding Boesch, but trying to define when a “hot streak” is over or merely paused can lead to a lot of waiting… I understand them playing him now, but they need to have a quick hook with him (hey, they ditched Sizemore after 115 PA), as they have better options. A platoon with Raburn (again, this season is only a small part of his performance record) would be a good idea for Boesch as well. His 52 PA reverse platoon split in the major leagues is not close to being significant, and he had pretty typical platoon splits in the minor leagues (they were huge this season in Toledo).
Well, sometimes good players emerge out of nowhere; someone turns a corner and all of a sudden their histories are irrelevant. Even if it’s not even a 50/50 shot, that possibility is there with Boesch, and if he’s for real, he becomes a massive asset for the Tigers. Why not ride that wave and see if it takes you somewhere?
I think a fair comparison is Garrett Jones, who had a career minor league line of .258, .312, .450 (.192 ISO). His partial 2009 season in the minors showed improvement (.307, .348, .502), a 4th year of continuous improvement at AAA. (Note: Jones spent more time in the minors and is 4 years older than Boesch, but I still like the comparison)
Boesch is a .273, .319, .434 hitter in the minors (.161 ISO), though I think it is fair to point out that his power came around in AA in 2009 (.275, .318, .510 for a .235 ISO). He mashed in 66 PA’s before getting the call to Detroit this season.
Now, after Jones call up last year, he went on to hit .293, .372, .567 w/ a wOBA .396 over 358 PA’s to finish the season, far exceeding expectations. A regression was anticipated by basically everyone (his HR/FB rate was 21.2% in 2009) and it happened, but that doesn’t make him a poor player, he’s still quite useful. His current line .284, .354, .447 w/ a wOBA of .352 is solid and he has a wRC+ of 119 and a 1.3 WAR to this point in the season. ZIPS rest of schedule predicts a .284, .343, .481 line with a .361 wOBA, so he’s basically meeting those expectatiosn. He isn’t what we saw in a small sample last season, but he has more value than many may have expected.
Boesch brings a similar skill set to the table, though to this point through 225 PA’s he’s even exceeded what Jones did last season. Time is on his side as well as noted previously. His .373 BABIP is unsustainable (career MiLB mark of ~.305 or so). As that comes down, so will the avg, obp and slg%. He’s also hitting HR on fly balls more than 18% of the time, a number that should regress some over the course of the season.
That said, I see no reason why Boesch can’t be a slightly better version than what Jones is for the Pirates and produce as an above average player for the Tigers. While regression is very likely to come, it won’t be the end of the world and what will remain is a good baseball player who has moderate on-base ability, good contact skills and solid power, with defense as the only liability.
Is Brennan Boesch another Chris Shelton?