What to Think of Lohse?

One of the most difficult aspects in the world of analyzing baseball players involves separating our perception of a player from his actual true talent level. Early last season, Cliff Lee’s previously established talent level prevented many from believing that he could produce such an incredible season. After the small sample of dominance in April fans questioned if Lee was “for real.” As May came to its close fans began to hop aboard his bandwagon. Following several more starts in June people became convinced that the lanky lefty had in fact broken through a plateau and become a different pitcher. Lee’s is an extreme example but Kyle Lohse had a very similar season.

After essentially posting league average numbers since 2002, Lohse put up 2.4 wins in 2007, splitting time with the Reds and Phillies, in two very homer-happy stadiums. He signed a 1-yr/$4 mil contract with the Cardinals in the off-season and became the low-risk bargain of the year by putting up 3.1 wins. Following the success, the Cardinals must have been convinced that Lohse, too, was “for real” and inked him a much-ridiculed four-year extension.

Just like Lee, fans struggled to believe that a pitcher previously considered to be average at best could somehow become so effective. Entering this season most anticipated a regression from Lohse towards the production levels of 2002-06, numbers that certainly merited his spot on a roster but did not necessarily call for an average annual value of $10+ mil per season.

Entering today’s action, Lohse had made three starts and amassed 21 innings, scattering 13 hits, just one of which left the yard. Never a dominant strikeout pitcher, his raw total of 12 and rate of 5.14 were hardly earth-shattering but he had only issued three free passes to the tune of a Maddux-esque 1.29 BB/9. All told, Lohse boasted a 2.57 ERA and 3.14 FIP, good enough for 0.6 wins after a mere three weeks.

In a 12-8 win against the Mets earlier today, Lohse surrendered just one earned run over five innings of work, another quality outing in which he lowered the earned run rate to just 2.42. Lohse likely would have continued to pitch past the fifth however he sustained an injury covering first base and is going to undergo an MRI to see where he stands. Granted, he has only made four starts this season, but this is beginning to have a familiar feel, namely in that there are probably plenty of fans wondering if last season plus this April is enough to prove that Lohse has become a different and much more effective pitcher.

One way to find out is to check out his pre-season projections as they are derived primarily from weighting data from the previous seasons. Before his stellar 2008 campaign, Lohse’s previous three FIPs were 5.06, 4.55, 4.34. He clearly displayed signs of improvement in the controllable skills department but a crude projection for 2008 would call for a mark somewhere in the 4.40-4.50 range.

After 33 starts and 200 innings at a 3.89 FIP, Lohse projected to right around 4.14 entering this season. His season was not incredible enough to prove to the systems that he had become a true talent +3.1 win pitcher but rather somewhere in the +2.5 to +2.8 wins vicinity. I’d like to toss this out there to anyone interested in throwing in their opinions, but at what point will you consider Lohse to legitimately be a very good pitcher if he continues to keep up his current performance level?