What’s Howard Done For Me Lately?

While we have discussed here how solid or awful performance very early in the season can “make or break” the reputation of a player for that given season, so too can similar performance at the end of the season. Most don’t remember that Carlos Delgado stunk early on, but since they cannot remember exactly when he started performing well, feel it has been for a very long time, maybe all year. A player in a somewhat similar situation is Ryan Howard. Howard, the Phillies first baseman and former NL MVP, got off to an extremely slow start, but has been so good recently that he is now creeping his way into award discussions.

Over the last 30 days, Howard is second in baseball with a 1.41 WPA/LI, leads baseball with both 11 home runs and 29 RBI, and has added 10 doubles as well. While RBIs are not the greatest evaluative tool, they are gospel to the mainstream, and he is not disappointing in that area. In this span, he has hit .291/.381/.709, a 1.090 OPS.

His overall WPA/LI is just 2.08, meaning that prior to this recent 30-day stretch, Howard had gone the whole season being no more than 2/3 of a win better than an average hitter. Sure, he has 44 HR and 133 RBI, and seems to be on a streak hot enough of helping him reach 48-50 longballs, but his numbers have taken serious hits. In 2006, he posted a .425 OBP/.659 SLG. Last year, a .392 OBP/.584 SLG. This year, however, even with the home run and doubles and RBIs, his slash line included a .332 OBP/.526 SLG. His batting average over the last three years has gone from .313 to .268 to its current .244.

Since his extra-base hits appear to be the same, it seems that Howard is just plain hitting less. His BABIP helps explain that, as it ranged from .336-.363 in 2005-07, and is just .283 today. Add to that his dearth of walks this year—108 in 2006, 107 in 2007, just 74 in 2008—and it’s no wonder why his slash line has plummeted. On the season, his .858 OPS is not terrible, but many would claim his numbers are much better based on how great he looks right now, “when it matters.” This same group likely would not believe that teammate Jayson Werth, with an .881 OPS, has a higher count in the same metric.

As an analyst, it’s important to remember that Howard’s dominance in the month of September so far does not come close to telling the whole story. As a fan, however, it is very exciting for this guy to finally start performing like everyone in the Philadelphia area has wanted him to for months. If the Phillies make the playoffs this year, he is definitely going to receive MVP votes, as unjustified as it may be, but that’s how it seems to go. Perform tremendous early on and stay the course for the rest and your reputation will remain in tact or perform tremendous at season’s end and it’s all anyone will remember.