Indians Cloned Byrd Before Trading Him
Due to the trades of CC Sabathia and Paul Byrd, as well as the injuries to Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona, the Indians have cycled a lot of arms through their rotation this year. The newest of those arms, Scott Lewis, has made quite the splash, tossing 14 shutout innings in his two appearances so far. Neither the Orioles nor the Twins have been able to hit him so far, and as a kid who doesn’t turn 25 for a few more weeks, he’s getting some fans excited about his potential for 2009 and beyond.
However, a look beyond his early run prevention leads to some warning signs. Lewis has the classic pitch-to-contact skillset of a guy with fringe stuff – he’s not walking anyone (1.29 BB/9) but not missing bats either (5.14 K/9, 5.7% Swinging Strike%), and like most guys without a real fastball, hitters don’t have any problems putting the ball in the air against him (57.9% FB%).
Throwing strikes is nice, but if you’re giving up a ton of flyballs, you’re going to give up home runs. Lewis has managed to keep all 19 of his outfield flies in the park so far, but that’s just simply not going to continue – we’d have expected him to give up a couple of home runs by now, given this skillset, and if he was giving up 1.29 HR/9 instead of his current 0.00, he wouldn’t look quite so sparkly.
As we can see from the pitch data here on Fangraphs, Lewis’ fastball averages 86.5 MPH and his change and curve are both in the mid-70s. This is exactly the kind of stuff we’d expect from a strike-throwing flyballer, and it’s not the repertoire of a guy with much chance to get better.
Lewis is what he is – a younger, more orthodox Paul Byrd. He can pound the strike zone and look okay when the ball stays in the park, but his upside is that of a 5th starter. He can be useful as an innings sponge at the back of a rotation, but it’s unlikely a team would ever want Lewis pitching a meaningful inning in a playoff series.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I think this is a fairly shallow analysis. I’m not even saying that I disagree with the conclusion, but to draw conclusions about a pitcher from 14 major league innings without even mentioning his minor league numbers (good or bad) is disappointing. And while it doesn’t really change much, not even a mention that he is left-handed?
Disclaimer: I am a huge Scott Lewis fan, as he pitched for my alma mater. But that’s only why I had sufficient motivation to leave a comment; I would think the same thing had it been anyone else.
Pre-Tommy john Surgery, as a sophomore at Ohio State, he struck out 127 in 80 innings.
Post -TJ, he has 359 Ks in 360 minor league innings, most of those spent not throwing his curve (due to Tommy John recovery).
As he blends that pitch back into his regular mix, I think he’ll miss more bats.
Agreed on the shallow analysis.
Yes, and beside the fact that you chose to ignore everything that happened in Lewis’s career prior to last week, he has actually struck out batters at a rate HIGHER than the average AL starter, 16.7% to 15.9%. His K/9 only appears a trifle low because he’s faced 20% fewer batters per inning than average. Also, missing bats isn’t the only way to strike a man out. Mike Mussina, for one, is third to last in the majors in SwStrk% and yet is striking out 6.73 men per nine innings. Incredibly flawed analysis all around, not that you set the bar very high.
Three people predisposed to root for Lewis disagree? I’m shocked.
It appears that way.
But let’s not sidestep the issue at hand: 14 innings tells us next to nothing.
If it was a hitter, would you be satisfied with 14 plate appearances?
Let’s get serious here.
14 innings is equal to about 46 plate appearances. I wrote a post on Nelson Cruz last week that detailed his performance through pretty much that amount of time.
Skillsets are pretty easy to identify – Lewis is a pitch to contact strike thrower with fringe stuff. That’s not going to change with larger samples.
IIRC, you also noted that Cruz had mashed at AAA for 2 (or 3) seasons prior to finally getting the call-up.
A casual glance at Lewis’s minor league stats would note his K per inning career.
The success rate of guys with mid-80s fastballs and big minor league strikeouts rates is downright horrible. Fans have been getting overly excited by the minor league performances of guys like Yusmeiro Petit for years.
I happen to agree with Dave on this one. 14 innings tells you pretty much all you need to know about a pitcher’s command of the strike zone. Just take a look at the following pitchers in their first 14 innings of major league work:
John Smoltz: 3 K, 3 BB. Your classic pitch-to-contact soft tosser. Fastball couldn’t break a pane of glass.
Johan Santana: 9 K, 10 BB. So-so strikeout ability, but couldn’t find the strike zone with a map. Will be lucky to last a month in the bigs.
Carlos Silva: 12 K, 6 BB. Pure power pitcher with below average control. Should contend for the strikeout crown for years to come.
And these are just three of the countless examples of why small sample sizes are extremely important in the evaluation of pitchers.
Yes, because we live in a bubble where we have no idea what a pitcher throws, and clearly, Lewis has the exact same fastball as those three.
Don’t be stupid.
Yes, because fastball velocity has a 1.00 correlation with strikeouts. That’s how Bronson Arroyo, Andy Pettitte, and Mike Mussina continue to strike out an above average number of men with underwhelming velocity on their fastballs. That’s how Randy Johnson is 5th in the NL with his league-average 91 MPH heater and how Ted Lilly is 9th while averaging 87 (hey, isn’t Lewis averaging 87?). Because fastball speed and 14 IP tell you everything you need to know about a pitcher.
You take every pitcher with a mid-80s fastball and good strikeout rates in the minors and predict stardom for them. I’ll take every pitcher with a mid-80s fastball and good strikeout rates in the minors and predict marginal careers for them.
I will be right way, way more than you will.
What does that have to do with Lewis individually?
It means that saying “Lewis had good strikeout rates in the minors” doesn’t support the claim that I’m underselling him as a #5 starter.
If you want to build a case for why Lewis has more upside than I’m giving him credit for, you need some evidence to support your theory. Because history has shown us that pitchers with similar stuff and statistical performances as Lewis more often than not fail to repeat their success in the majors, his minor league K rate isn’t the evidence you need.
lol the mariners suck
You say he’s a younger Paul Byrd and then say you wouldn’t want him to pitch meaningful playoff innings? You mean the Paul Byrd who was 2-0 last year in the playoffs against two fantastic offensive teams? The Paul Byrd who won the only game for the Angels against the Pale Hose in 2005? That Paul Byrd?
Yeah, much better to give meaningful playoff innings to phenoms with live arms like Rick Ankiel.
What’s the source for the 5.7% Swinging Strike % figure cited in the article? I don’t see the statistic on Fangraphs.com and I don’t see that any of the baseball-reference.com statistics for Lewis matches up to that figure? I’d like to be able to look that up.
Statcorner.com – Matthew Carruth pulls the MLB.com gamelogs and aggregates the data into some cool stuff over there.