Who’s The No. 1 Prospect?: May Edition
With a month of the minor league season in the books, chat questions are already rolling in about who the top prospect will be in 2014. Each month, I’ll take a look at players who were close in 2013 (we’ll call them “Headliners”), plus fast risers who are staking an early claim to the top spot (we’ll call them “Opening Acts”).
To begin this exercise, it’s important to understand where the number one pick comes from. Since 1990, Baseball America has been releasing its top-100 prospects list. Below is a chart of the year, number-one prospect, and where he ranked the year previous.
| Year | B.A. No. 1 Prospect | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | Steve Avery | N/A |
| 1991 | Todd Van Poppel | Draft |
| 1992 | Brien Taylor | Draft |
| 1993 | Chipper Jones | 4 |
| 1994 | Cliff Floyd | 34 |
| 1995 | Alex Rodriguez | 6 |
| 1996 | Andruw Jones | 21 |
| 1997 | Andruw Jones | 1 |
| 1998 | Ben Grieve | 18 |
| 1999 | J.D. Drew | Draft |
| 2000 | Rick Ankiel | 2 |
| 2001 | Josh Hamilton | 13 |
| 2002 | Josh Beckett | 3 |
| 2003 | Mark Teixeira | 10 |
| 2004 | Joe Mauer | 4 |
| 2005 | Joe Mauer | 1 |
| 2006 | Delmon Young | 3 |
| 2007 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | Int’l Signing |
| 2008 | Jay Bruce | 14 |
| 2009 | Matt Wieters | 12 |
| 2010 | Jason Heyward | 5 |
| 2011 | Bryce Harper | Draft |
| 2012 | Bryce Harper | 1 |
| 2013 | Jurickson Profar | 7 |
For a visual representation, here’s the same data in a box-and-whisker plot as I release my inner middle school math teacher. Be aware draft picks, international signings and former Braves standout Steve Avery are not included since a ranking was not available the year previous.
In 23 years of available Baseball America rankings where one can compare to the previous year, five were drafted or signed from the international ranks the year previous. This leaves 18 players in the data set. Of those 18, only 2 (11.1%) rose to the top spot from outside the top-20. If one includes all players ranked outside of the top-10, the percentage triples to 33.3%, but it’s still a low number. When it comes to being the top prospect in baseball, perceived pedigree matters more than one might think.
This brings me to the “Opening Acts” who exploded in April and enter May with helium after entering the season outside of the top-10.
Archie Bradley (P-ARI) – Through six starts, the right-handed pitcher has a 50/12 K/BB ratio in just 34 2/3 innings pitched. Ranked 25th entering the season by BA and 26th here at FanGraphs, his already being promoted to Double-A was a surprise — especially after struggling with command in 2012. When David Laurila’s early April piece on Bradley included “Future D-Backs Ace” in the title, he wasn’t kidding.
Francisco Lindor (SS-CLE) – Considered one of the elite defenders at the shortstop position across minor league baseball, Lindor spent April forcing prospect followers to respect the stick as well. With a .347/.418/.510 triple-slash line, with 11 extra-base hits and seven steals, the 28th ranked (20th at FG) Lindor’s offseason workout regimen is showing up in the stat lines.
Yasiel Puig (OF-LAD) – Ranked 47th entering the year (99th at FG), Puig followed his dominant spring training performance with a torrid start in Double-A. Then, the wheels appeared to come off with an injury, followed by a vehicular arrest. Puig has two home runs in three games since returning to the lineup. As one of the strongest players I’ve scouted, would an assault on Southern League pitching, followed by a big September in Los Angeles be enough to make him the outlier in the data set?
Zack Wheeler (P-NYM) – The 11th ranked prospect in baseball entering 2013 (ninth at FG), the Mets affiliate shuffle left them with what I considered to be the toughest April assignment of spring training. Do the Mets…
- Start Wheeler as the No. 5 starter, starting his time clock and potentially expose him to Major League hitters?
- Start Wheeler in Las Vegas and risk damaging the confidence of a right-hander considered to be a pillar of the future?
- Start Wheeler in Binghamton and risk exposing him to cold weather and a level of competition below his talent level?
It was a no-win situation. Based on the numbers, Wheeler isn’t a contender for the top spot, but he has still made considerable gains since entering the Mets organization.
Taijuan Walker (P-SEA) – Sometimes, we forget Taijuan Walker is only 20-years old. In six starts, Walker has struck out 39 and surrendered only 18 hits in 35 innings pitched. This is bordering on unhittable. Prospect followers point to 20 walks like it’s a scarlet letter, but it would be prudent to reel that sentiment in a bit. As J.D. Sussman reported in spring training, the 18th-ranked prospect per BA (and 13th by FG) is working on a “new” curveball which he struggled to command. This may be a root source of his early command issues.
Next, the “Headliners,” who already have a top-10 ranking to their baseball resume.
Byron Buxton (OF-MIN) – The 10th ranked prospect entering 2013 (16th at FG), Buxton has dominated Single-A with a .388/.509/.694 triple-slash line, with 13 extra base hits, 10 steals and more walks than strikeouts. In a February piece, I asked, “Should he struggle in 2013, just how many people will jump off the Buxton bandwagon?” With top flight tools, but an unrefined approach, it was a legitimate question at the time. Now? Not so much.
Miguel Sano (3B-MIN) – With a .364/.429/.727 line that includes nine home runs, it’s impossible to deny Sano as a contender for the top spot considering he was ranked ninth entering the season (17th at FG). Yes, Sano hasn’t solved his strikeout or defensive issues, but the power and on base skills are impressive enough to earn him a mulligan while he continues to mature.
Other top-10 prospects including Jurickson Profar, Gerrit Cole, Xander Bogaerts, Wil Myers and Oscar Taveras are plugging along, but have yet to make a real push. Plus, I expect all but Bogaerts to lose eligibility before the end of 2013.
Dylan Bundy won’t stake his claim until he’s healthy and back on the field, while Shelby Miller and Jose Fernandez should lose eligibility in the near future.
As we enter May, Buxton has been as impressive as any prospect in baseball. Having already ranked in the top 10, his path to the top spot is easier than Lindor or Bradley, who are off to equally hot starts. Because of this, Buxton is my top prospect in baseball right now. Rounding out the projected top-5 are Archie Bradley, Francisco Lindor, Miguel Sano and Xander Bogaerts.
Mike Newman is the Owner/Managing Editor ofROTOscouting, a subscription site focused on baseball scouting, baseball prospects and fantasy baseball. Follow me onTwitter. Likeus on Facebook.Subscribeto my YouTube Channel.
So you would take Bradley over T. Walker? They are roughly the same age yet Walker has already been dominating AA. Thoughts?
My thoughts are Walker might be 6th. Right now, I want to see how the curveball develops. In June, Walker may very well enter the top-5. If you said, “Walker has to be top-5!” My only question would be who to bump at that point.
Great article Mike. How do you see Matt Barnes fitting in? He had one of the strongest first impressions I can remember, but simmered once being called up to AA last year. His FIP indicates he’s actually having a very solid season. Is he anywhere near the top 10?
Nice prospect, but not an impact guy. Right now, I’d put Webster in the top-10 before Barnes, although I don’t think either are that good for the record.
I like the list as a Twins Fan. Yet I have a few questions
1. Is one month of outcomes enough to change prospect rankings which are by nature predicated on tools? While Buxton’s been awesome- I do wonder how one tells the difference between a red-hot month versus actual development?
2. Can a Prospect in Low A really be the best prospect in Baseball due to risk factors involved in their development. While I agree Buxton has the best tools. It would seem hard to think that the Twins shouldn’t trade him for Oscar Tavares since Tavares is more probable and closer to delivering value.
Outcomes and their importance depends on the player. I worried about Buxton struggling after seeing a raw player last August. Now, he’s walking more than he’s striking out and dominating full season baseball. Have I scouted Buxton this year? No, but I was not expecting his tools to start showing through so quickly.
For number 2, just look at the list. Players who never played a day of professional baseball have been ranked in the top spot. As for Taveras, I was pretty clear as to why he’s not listed. The Cardinals outfielder probably won’t be prospect eligible next season. If we get to August and Taveras has 0 big league at bats, I just might shift him back to number one. This is a very fluid list.
For number 2, just look at the list. Players who never played a day of professional baseball have been ranked in the top spot.
Two of them were high school pitchers long before the idea of “TINSTAAPP” and the apparent full realization of the risks of young pitchers. The others were one of the best college players ever, an established professional (but international) player, and a freak.
Pretty sure you can find other guys who were #1 in A-Ball too.
I’m not a Twins fan myself but I’m definitely keeping an eye on the development of those 2 (and Alex Meyer, who I think is going to be a stud).
Nice article. I thought Gausman’s 13.0 K/BB in AA would earn him a mention here.
Gausman for #1? Not yet. Love the K/BB. It’s insane. However, 30 hits in 26 IP? He has been hittable in a way Walker/Bradley have not been. I could have added Gausman instead of Wheeler, but I really wanted to make a point to discuss Wheeler given he was ranked 11th and the numbers are iffy right now.
Gausman won’t have prospect status in March.
Are you sure he’s been “hittable,” and not “allowing hits?” Gausman’s giving up 54% GB and 10% LD so far this year, are you really hanging a “hittable” tag on him based on a .341 BABIP through 28.2 AA innings (fwiw, Bradley’s has been even higher this year)? Obviously you’re doing your own thing, but isn’t this FanGraphs? I see a lot of this kind of thing actually, when it comes to prospects. People seem to get a lot more…traditional with their evaluations, and ignore stuff that would scream fluke if it were true of a MLB player.
In your rebuttal, you mentioned LD% in MILB as part of Gausman’s defense. A few years ago, a friend in the industry told me a story about a AA team who hired a new scorekeeper mid season who did not know what a LD was. For two months, no line drives were hit in this park….on paper at least. It’s the most unreliable stat in MILB.
This.
Judging a pitching prospect on hits given up is very silly when you consider random BABIP fluctuations and the quality of defense in the minors.
That’s an amusing story, Mike, but I’m sure you realize my defense of Gausman didn’t hinge on the inerrancy of minor league BIP classifications.
In this context, if you’re gonna dismiss the guy as too hittable, it can only mean that he’s the type of pitcher who’s going to allow a substantially higher than average BABIP going forward. That’s an extraordinary (to be generous) prognostication to make based on 28 innings of AA, and if it’s based solely on hit numbers then it moves well into absurd territory.
geefee,
It’s not dismissing. This piece is about the potential #1 prospect in all of baseball entering 2014.
Bradley is 20 and has given up 26 hits in 34 2/3 IP
Walker is also 20 and has given up 18 hits in 35 IP
Gausman is 22 and has given up 31 hits in 28 2/3 IP
This qualifies as more hittable than Bradley or Walker right now. There’s just no way around it. When you factor the age difference, I can’t jump Gausman over those guys.
This doesn’t mean Gausman isn’t an excellent prospect too. One can be a top prospect without being in the running for #1 at the end of April.
I don’t think Gausman should or will be #1 by any stretch, I’m only taking issue with the hittable thing (which was the reason you gave). It’s the process, not the conclusion. He’s allowed more hits, that’s a statement of fact. He’s more hittable, that is a subjective assessment. All things being equal, he should allow more hits because he strikes out fewer batters, but you seemed to be hinting at something more than that and I was trying to figure out what that was. H/IP is an extremely incomplete picture.
I don’t really hint around at things geefee. I perceive him to be more hittable than Bradley or Walker. Hence, the hittable in a way they have not been.
Mike – you were quite clear you believe Gausman is more hittable, but like some others, I don’t find your evidence persuasive.
It is true that in a tiny sample size this year Gausman is giving up about a hit an inning while Walker has given up close to a hit every two innings.
But Walker is repeating AA and if you look at his performance there the first time around in a far bigger sample size last year, Walker gave up 124 hits in 126.2 innings — basically the same hit per inning that Gausman has shown so far this season in his first go-around in AA.
I’m not sure why you don’t consider Walker’s hits/per inning last year and rely instead on this year’s small sample size, but here are some cautionary words:
Brandon Workman
Burch Smith
Neil Ramirez
Jesse Biddle
Erik Johnson
All five are pitching in AA this year, none of them are anywhere close to anyone’s top 10 list of prospects, some aren’t even whiffing top 100 and all of the are giving up just as few or even fewer hits per inning than is Walker.
Clearly, Walker is a better prospect than those five but not because he’s given up few hits in April, a trait they all share, but because he has an electric arm that leaves scouts drooling and an age-to-level ratio that suggests he has ample time to overcome issues with command. For those same reasons he may be a better prospect than Gausman. But none of that is good reason to put so much weight in the number of hits given up in a single month.
Jonathan,
When Taijuan Walker work up this morning, he was 19-months younger than Kevin Gausman. In baseball years, Walker is in his Age-20 season versus Gausman’s Age-22 season.
You are asking me to compare Gausman’s first stint in Double-A (at 22) to Walker’s at 19. None of the contacts I have look at players this way. It’s an apples-to-oranges comparison.
The fair comparison is to take Gausman NOW and compare to what Walker projects to be two years from now. That’s the real apples-to-apples comparison.
You mention SSS with Walkers H/9 and that’s fine. But with his start, do you really envision him giving all those hits back – Especially when most peak in the summer months? I’d be willing to bet he doesn’t.
Plus, your cautionary names include players I’ve seen before. Workman and Ramirez are both is their age-24 seasons. Neither has half the talent of Walker.
These are all things I adjust for because I spend so much time at the park in general. If you want to ding me for not discussing Gausman’s age WITH my response to the hits allowed, fine, but understand I was literally prepping for Brian Johnson vs. Mauricio Cabrera in Rome at the time I attempted to respond to a few of these comments.
And Jonathan,
Remember, you are dinging Walker for “repeating the league” when the Mariners skipped him over High-A. He actually deserves bonus points for performing so admirably in the Southern League at 19.
Mike — thanks for your thoughtful reply, which lays out a much more compelling case for favoring Walker over Gausman. I obviously agree with the importance of age relative to league. And thanks too for mentioning the time constraints — It is a challenge to reply in fulsome detail to every comment when you are working on your next piece.
I do expect to see some regression in Walker’s hits per inning — his current level isn’t sustainable — but agree that we should expect him to improve on last year.
I haven’t look at his and Gausman’s batted ball data, which as you note, may not be entirely reliable, but to the extent that Gausman induces more groundballs we’d expect a higher BABIP (with off-setting advantages that come with keeping the ball out of the air).
Walker’s progress from now will depend on his continuing health — as for all pitching prospects — and his capacity to improve his command: In addition to working in his curve Walker has sometimes struggled with his fastball command. His youth and arm are both reasons to be optimistic.
None of my comments were meant to take Walker down notches in the prospect rankings, for example, his repetition at AA. His pathway to the majors may have gotten shorter too with the questionable left shoulder of Danny Hultzen. But of all the reasons to love Walker as a prospect, his hits per inning so far in a SSS aren’t high on my list — I’d like him just as much with his electric arm, age and general performance even is he was giving up more hits per inning mover a SSS.
Keep up the good work — most of the rest of us, myself included, are armchair observers of prospects, so your firsthand reporting can provide insight.
Thanks Jonathan,
I’m actually watching Gausman pitch right now while working on a piece for tomorrow and he’s being hit around pretty good. The stuff is big, without a doubt, but I still think the Gausman > Bundy talk this spring might have hyped him up a bit much.
Knowing how much you love Xander Bogaerts (and for good reason) I am a little surprised to see that you didn’t push the notion that he’d be #1 more in the article. Personally I think it’ll be Bogaerts or Bundy.
If I don’t believe it, I’m not going to push it.
Sano is also doing it in the FSL…..not many hit like that there. Super exciting for a Twins’ fan.
Enjoy it. The org. Was dreck for awhile.
Taveras is finally heating up after missing the start of the season attending to a death in his family. .353/.421/.588 over the last 10 games, and he was still cold at the start of that stretch.
Once again, I do not expect Taveras to be prospect eligible in 2014.No need to really defend him. I know he’s one of, if not the best.
I actually do expect him to still be eligible, unless Jon Jay’s signs of life are fleeting. Regardless, just pointing out that he’s back to playing like a superstar.
Only question now is when will he be called up? here’s hoping for Mid June
Honestly, I think September. Even if Beltran or someone else goes on the DL, it only opens up playing time for Matt Adams. I don’t think they’re going to bring up Taveras to get a few spot starts, so he’s dependent on two injuries in the OF/1B mix.
You are right Sparkles. Adams doing well pushes Taveras further back. This is why I’ll be monitoring throughout the season. In the spring, I thought his receiving 300 plate appearances or more was a slam dunk. Not anymore. For now, Craig and Jay aren’t playing well and Beltran is always an injury concern. I just don’t know how it’s going to play out.
Mark Appel and Jon Gray are possible #1s for next year, too.
I do t think a college arm from this draft pushes 1 with Bundy, Bradley and Walker.
How do you see Wheeler’s development playing out over the summer? His struggles adjusting coupled with the Mets’ terrible bullpen makes me wonder if he might be better off getting seasoned until a late-season call-up. If he’s still eligible next spring, would he crack the top 5?
I don’t think he’ll be eligible. With overreaction to April stats, Wheeler’s situation was an opportunity to educate readers on the situation the Mets faced. Whenever I can associate a player’s struggles with the situation and not so much the player, it’s something I hope readers take note of.
He certainly has the stuff to crack the top-5, but it will be tough for him to post the gaudy numbers needed in that park.
Is Kyle Zimmer even close to being in the discussion?
I heard great things about his stuff while out in Arizona. Remember, this was a look at a few guys primed to make a run at the top prospect in all of baseball. It’s not a, “Hey, this guy is off to a good start” piece. Zimmer is top-20, top-15 maybe, but I can’t form a viable argument to say Zimmer at 21 is better than Archie Bradley or Taijuan Walker at 20.
How do you figure Xander is going to lose his eligibility by the end of the year? I don’t see the Sox rushing him up, if they need a SS they will bring up Iglesias before Bogaerts.
Did you read the article?
Apparently not… Thanks for the assist, Steve.
Be easy on him. He read the article and just misread the comment.
No Yelich?
Yelich is great but no way for #1, esp. going off of early season performance. Yelich has been mediocre thus far in 2013 and his BB/K numbers have been atrocious (4/17 BB/K).
What Wayne said. He’s off to a slow start and had some injury issues. That’s enough to knock a guy out of the #1 running. Great prospect, just not in the running for the top spot right now.
Does the surprising promotion of Archie Bradley to AA mean the DBacks could be rushing him to the majors as maybe a late 2013 callup? Playoff bullpen help for a stretch run?
Interesting thought. Their pen hasn’t been as good as advertised.
Give Lindor a year, and he will be the top prospect in the minor leagues. He is good. Very good
Lindor is fantastic. No doubt.
Any chance Rendon gets into the discussion?
For #1? Right now, I don’t think he’ll be eligible. Plus, he’s in his age-23 season. A quick glance at #1 by year would suggest #1’s are mostly young for the level, not age appropriate.
20 walks in 38 innings is still concerning though, right? Reminds me of Bauer…
Not really. Bauer was much older too. As I said in the piece, Walker is working on things and developing. Bauer was much more of a finished product.
Bundy’s ETA now with being shut down?
I don’t know if we have enough information about his injury to give an ETA.
As M’s fan I like that Walker is working on his pitches to become a more complete pitcher rather than just make it to the bigs. I suspect he could be good enough to make it but needs this time to complete the project. Thanks for your insights.
I wonder how many of the commenters here are the actual players or friends/relatives of those players… Awfully passionate.
Great article, btw.
Who are some guys who have Helium’d their way from the 30-50 range into top 15-20 discussion now?
Looking for some potentially still unowned prospects to target in ottoneu that will be hot names as the year goes on.
Given that Zunino is currently struggling, his timeline to the bigs might get pushed back. Though not likely, if he was eligible, any thoughts where he would rank next spring?
What about Yassel Puig?.He is one of tne best 5 players in all of tne minor league and better than a lot of major leaguers