Why Am I In Syracuse?

by
August 5, 2008

The conventional wisdom for pitchers is that they want to strike out twice as many batters as they walk. A two to one K/BB rate is seen as the foundation for what a pitcher should aim for, and obviously, the better pitchers will get to three to one or higher. Generally, if a pitcher is striking out three times as many batters as he’s walking, he’s going to succeed, even if he isn’t particularly good at anything else. That kind of strike zone dominance makes it very easy to get hitters out on a regular basis.

Take, for instance, this group of starters, all who have basically identical K/BB rates, just a tick above 3.00: Johan Santana, Zach Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Derek Lowe, Andy Pettitte. That’s an all-star cast of front line starters. But there’s one name missing from the group, a guy with a K/BB that puts him square in the middle of such select company.

Jesse Litsch. You know, the guy Toronto optioned to Triple-A a few weeks ago.

Seriously, go take a look at Litsch’s season numbers. His 4.46 ERA is supported by a 4.58 FIP, showing that he’s been basically as good as advertised. He offsets a lack of strikeouts by pounding the strike zone regularly, not walking anyone (1.49 BB/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (49.8% GB%). However, he struggled in three consecutive starts leading up to his demotion, and a couple of weeks of poor work was enough for the Blue Jays to conclude that he would be better served working on his weaknesses in the minor leagues.

Maybe they’re right – they’re closer to Litsch than we are, and so they’re privy to information that we are not, but it’s hard to come up with a scenario where a guy with a 3.00+ K/BB rate isn’t good enough to pitch in the major leagues right now.

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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Jon
17 years ago

I think if the conventional wisdom is 2/1 for K/BB, it’s also at least 6 for K/9 and below 1 for HR/9. (Yes, for those that care, these are the baseline levels for Ron Shandler’s LIMA plan).

Litsch’s BABIP is exactly where it should be based on his line drive rate, so as you note, he hasn’t been unlucky.

His HR rate is close to being respectable – a few less and he’d be at 1 per 9 innings. And his HR/FB rate and minor league HR% numbers suggest that maybe he’s been a little unlucky there.

But the main problem is simply that the doesn’t strike enough guys out. You really can’t survive with a K rate that low, regardless of how few walks you give up. The simple reason is that more balls will be hit into play and more hits will be given up.

The obvious comparison is Wang, but there are a couple differences – Wang’s LD rate (from 05 to 07) was lower, leading to a lower BABIP. Most importantly, his HR rate was less than half of Litsch’s.

So basically, I guess my point is that the 2 to 1 K/BB, 6 K/9, and <1 HR/9 numbers must all work together.

If Litsch is only striking out 4 batters per 9 innings, he’d have to get the GB rate up even further (thus decreasing the LD rate), and cut his homers in half.

Just a quick calculation – if he gave up half as many HR, his ERA would be in the mid 3s, and we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

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