Why Does Vegas Hate the Twins

I always look forward to the release of the Vegas over/unders from the great Vegas Watch. My friend Derek Zumsteg did a great piece on odds in Vegas a few years ago, and due to the bookies fanatical desire to make money, they’ve always struck me as a nice stand in for what they see public perception of each team being. They aren’t predictors of final record, but instead, numbers set to even out the bets, so that they book will make money no matter what happens. To do this, they have to be pretty good at projecting where the money will fall at a given number of wins.

Apparently, Vegas thinks that people with money hate the Twins. If there’s one over/under that stands out like a sore thumb, it’s Minnesota at 82 wins. 82 wins – the same as the White Sox, one win more than the Tigers, tied for the seventh best record in the American League. Really? Seriously?

The Twins had a tremendous winter, as we’ve discussed. They added quality talents in J.J. Hardy, Orlando Hudson, and Jim Thome, plus retained Carl Pavano for a full season (or however much of it he’ll be able to stay healthy for). They got more good news when Francisco Liriano found his fastball and dominated the Winter Leagues, and for those who are into this sort of thing, uber bust Delmon Young showed up at camp 30 pounds lighter.

Their losses? Joe Crede and Carlos Gomez, who accounted for +1.9 wins combined a year ago. They didn’t take a significant hit at any position, unlike their rivals in Michigan, who lost Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, and Edwin Jackson. And yet Vegas shaved an equal number of wins off both the Twins and Tigers records from 2009, despite very different off-seasons.

Honestly, I don’t get it. Sure, there’s expected regression from Mauer (it’s really hard to repeat that kind of season, no matter who you are), but they aren’t likely to get a brutal performance from Alexi Casilla again. CHONE has the Twins as an 86 win team, and there’s certainly upside beyond the expected performances of guys like Young, Liriano, and Hardy. My back of the envelope calculations have them at something more like 87 or 8 88 wins.

Could the Twins win 82 games? Sure. Anything is possible. But smart money will go heavily over on that number, because the Twins are better than a true talent 82 win team. I don’t know what Vegas thinks the perception of Minnesota’s team is, but it’s certainly not the same one I have. And I don’t know too many people who think the Twins are in a dead heat with the White Sox and Tigers for the AL Central. They’re a clear favorite in my books, and I’d expect them to finish well north of 82 wins.