Will Teams Need a LOOGY to Win the American League Pennant?

Quick: who’s the best left-handed hitter likely to appear in the American League playoffs this October? If you took more than three seconds to come up with an answer, don’t worry, that’s perfectly normal. The National League contenders have plenty of high-profile left-handed hitters: Charlie Blackmon, Cody Bellinger, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Anthony Rizzo immediately stand out. Not so in the American League.

Postseason roster construction can have a lot of consequences. Once rosters are set, there are only so many machinations that can or will surprise us, but in a lot of cases, series can be won or lost by the selection of the the last five guys on the roster. I focused on some interesting roster-construction decisions last week. In the meantime, the possible configurations of the Astros bullpen have remained with me. If Houston utilizes a tandem-starter approach, it will lessen their flexibility for their bullpen; as such, they might not have room for LOOGYs. Of course, a LOOGY is only necessary to the extent that there are dangerous left-handed batters to face. The potential absence of a LOOGY from the Houston bullpen led me to a larger question about the batters whom that pitcher might face — specifically, whether any of the AL teams need a LOOGY to navigate October?

There isn’t a real simple answer. Before we get into the analysis here, there’s a big, subjective question. Say you’re an AL manager and believe you can survive the AL playoffs without a LOOGY but would need one if you qualified for the World Series. Unless the D-backs are your opponent, you’re going to be facing one of those star lefty hitters I’ve mentioned above. So, if you need a LOOGY for the World Series, can you afford to leave that player off of the roster for both AL Division Series and AL Championship Series, and yet keep that pitcher sharp for a possible World Series trip? I don’t have the answer to that question.

For now, let’s go back to that original question. Who’s the best left-handed hitter on the five AL playoff contenders? I’m going to count the Twins as winners of the second Wild Card spot after their four-game sweep this weekend. (Sorry, Angels, Rangers, and Royals.) Here’s a list of all the left-handed hitters from the five AL playoff teams who have amassed at least 100 plate appearances this season.

If Lonnie Chisenhall was your answer to the question at the top of this post, congratulations, you’re either very smart, a very devoted Cleveland fan, or both! Now, as you’ll see, some of the offensive numbers for the hitters here might not be representative of true talent. Rafael Devers has cooled off a bit since his torrid July. In August, he posted a 107 wRC+; in September, a 116 mark. So he’s probably closer to that talent level, at least right now. Of course, that may not mean anything come October, but it’s certainly worth noting. It’s also probably worth noting that Greg Bird’s true-talent level is probably higher than a 67 wRC+. His ankle injury affected him a great deal at the start of the season, and he still has just nine more plate appearances in the second half than the first half. Finally, those numbers for Jay Bruce are just for his time in Cleveland. He posted a 121 wRC+ with the Mets before he was traded.

But overall, it’s an underwhelming list. Only three of these players have ranked among the best three hitters on their respective teams. Eight of these 22 hitters rank in the bottom half of their teams by wRC+. (Those eight are highlighted in yellow.) Furthermore, this accounts only for 2017 stats. Josh Reddick posted a 104 wRC+ last season, and has been a 108 wRC+ for his career. Chisenhall posted a 102 wRC+ in 2016 and a 77 wRC+ in 2015; for his career, he’s at 101 wRC+. They’re not the sort of hitters you would think of as needing LOOGY treatment.

What about switch-hitters, though? I’m glad you asked. Let’s have a look.

Here, we find that it’s been advantageous to turn some of these switch-hitters around, making them bat against left-handed pitchers this season. Seven of these hitters have been at least 20 percentage points better against right-handed pitching than they have against left-handed.

The one hitter who’s been a legitimate weapon from the left side — and much less dangerous from the right — is Marwin Gonzalez. His 149 wRC+ against right-handed pitching has ranked ninth among all AL hitters this season — and seventh if you bump the threshold to 100 PA. But like with Chisenhall and Reddick, Gonzalez doesn’t have a long track record of greatness. He posted an 88 wRC+ last season; for his career, he has a 101 wRC+.

Aside from him, though, and perhaps Carlos Santana, it’s hard to see the dire need for a LOOGY. Three of the seven hitters — Abraham Almonte, Carlos Beltran, and Jorge Polanco — still grade out as below-average hitters against right-handed pitching. (Again, the full-season stats may be underrating Polanco — he’s posted a 136 wRC+ in the second half after just a 53 wRC+ in the first half — but he too has cooled off after a torrid August.) Furthermore, two of the more prominent hitters on this list, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, either have no discernible platoon split or have been better against lefties this season.

Now, there are other ways we could be breaking out these statistics in order to land at the optimal answer. For one, we could have looked at the splits for the left-handed batters, beyond their overall statistics. I didn’t do that because, again, I was generally underwhelmed. We could be looking at career splits, or not focusing on splits at all. We could be looking at the pitchers involved, and working at it from that direction. We could incorporate xwOBA or other Statcast metrics to inform this question. Perhaps we’d arrive at different conclusions, perhaps not. No matter what the answer, I think it’s worth giving the question serious thought. Certainly, NL teams have guys who deserve the LOOGY treatment in any close, late-inning situation. I’m not sure the same can be said for AL teams.