Winn Value

Is there a more under-appreciated player in baseball than Randy Winn? In his career, he’s been traded for a manager, then traded for Jesse Foppert, and now plays for a terrible Giants team where he’s regarded as a role player and wasn’t widely pursued by any of the teams looking for outfield help in July. Meanwhile, he just continues to perform at a level that makes him a borderline all-star and one of the game’s better outfielders.

Since 2002, when he finally got regular playing time with Tampa, he’s posted seasonal WPA/LI marks of 1.59, -0.35, 0.38, 2.44, -1.00, 1.08, and 1.21. There’s a bad year and a great year in there, but generally, he’s around one win better than a league average hitter. He hasn’t posted huge raw lines, but because he’s played for Seattle and San Francisco, he’s spent most of his time in low run scoring environments, making his .770 career OPS more valuable than with comparable players in more hitter friendly parks.

But with Winn, it’s not just about the offense. His glove is very, very good – The Fielding Bible +/- system has him as +14, +12, and +16 plays as a right fielder the last three years, and this is consistent with his career – he’s basically a center fielder playing a corner, and his performances bear that out. He’s consistently a full win better than other corner outfielders defensively, and when you add that to his offensive production, that makes him quite a valuable player.

If we give him +1 win above average for offense, +1 win above average for defense, and then -0.5 wins for the position adjustment, we still come out with Winn being something like 1.5 wins above an average NL player. Due to the league disparity, where the NL is still clearly inferior, we could knock off another half a win and say that Winn is +1 win above an average major leaguer, or about +3 wins above a replacement level outfielder.

You could pretty easily make a case that Randy Winn is in the same class of players as guys like Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, or Adam Dunn in terms of value to a team. Meanwhile, those three will be seeking big paydays this winter, while Winn is owed just $8.25 million for 2009 before his contract expires.

If your a major league team looking for an outfielder this winter, calling the Giants about Randy Winn should be your very first move. He’s an absolute bargain, and one of the most valuable, least appreciated players in the game.