World Series Game 3 Live Blog
| 7:24 |
: Welcome to my first chat in… a long time. That’s just how desperate things are around here: I’m running a chat on a Saturday night World Series Game. Send ’em in and we’ll get going pretty soon.
|
| 7:27 |
Provide content damn it |
| 7:29 |
:
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| 7:30 |
How many grandmothers will be startled when OU/Texas Tech suddenly starts airing on Fox News at 6:30 CDT? |
| 7:31 |
Hi Matt, what do you think of Kelly getting the nod for game 3 over Lance Lynn (and the long lost Shelby Miller, for that matter)? |
| 7:32 |
: Well, I think Lynn is better than Kelly, but obviously Matheny likes Kelly here. There is objective evidence that Miller may have been gassed near the end of the season, and the Cardinals seem to agree.
|
| 7:32 |
Oh boy. Its 7:30. Only 6 more patriotic songs until game time! |
| 7:34 |
: How did A.J. Pierzynski get this post-season gig? Not saying he’s horrible, just seems like a weird choice.
|
| 7:35 |
: Any word on what cause Rosenthal is wearing his bow tie for????
|
| 7:36 |
: Hopefully Jeff Z. will be around soon.
|
| 7:37 |
Am I the only Jays fan without any ill will towards John Farrell? The man obviously made the right decision. |
| 7:37 |
: Seems like the right decision for both parties: Farrell wanted a different job, and the Jays rightly didn’t want to keep a manager who would rather be somewhere else.
|
| 7:39 |
: Oh yay more Chris Carpenter. Hope he can teach the young guys who to swear at batters, then throw a hissy fit over any perceived slight.
|
| 7:43 |
: Can’t wait to see how the people in charge of Catching Fire continue to miss the point of the books.
|
| 7:43 |
: Um, not that I read them or anything.
|
| 7:44 |
Have to imagine Kelly is on a short leash. Who is the Cardinals long man if they need a guy in the early innings? |
| 7:45 |
: Honestly, I’m not exactly sure. Maybe they try Miller for a couple of innings until they get to the other guys? They might not think he can give then five or six quality innings as a starter, but two might be do-able.
|
| 7:46 |
: Only 50 more minutes until the first pitch! Okay, that’s just existential minutes, but you gotta take that stuff seriously.
|
| 7:47 |
: Just so you all know how special you all are: I actually went to the basement and fished out an extension cord for my laptop for tonight’s game.
|
| 7:47 |
Matt, you live in Toronto, what are the chances someone goes to a bar tonight in Toronto (on a Saturday) when the Leafs are playing the Penguins and gets the bar to play the World Series on just 1 TV? |
| 7:49 |
: That is a great question. I would think it would be on at least one TV in most bars. but what do I know, they might be really into Corner Gas.
|
| 7:49 |
Can’t wait to see which old rocker they trot out to sing the national anthem |
| 7:49 |
: I hope it’s the cast of Mama’s
Family, the last St. Louis-based sitcom. |
| 7:50 |
: My pick for this game: there is a 100 percent chance of a team I dislike winning.
|
| 7:50 |
I would hope that at this point Canadian bars are showing Trailer Park Boys over Corner Gas |
| 7:50 |
: This country has no idea what its best features are.
|
| 7:52 |
: Hating the Cardinals just isn’t the same without Transition Shades and Chris Carpenter.
|
| 7:53 |
:
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| 7:53 |
: What version of Kashmir is this?
|
| 7:54 |
: I have no idea who this singer is.
|
| 7:55 |
: Yeah, P Diddy, thanks, people.
|
| 7:56 |
: I’ll make sure and keep you all updated on any awesome Canadian commercials that you’re missing out on. I assume that’s why you’re here, since it surely can’t be for baseball analysis.
|
| 7:57 |
: Anyone else like this NFL commerical that mentions how lousy helmets used to be? Never change, Industry of Death.
|
| 7:57 |
Gimme some Raptor news. Oh, sorry, wrong blog. |
| 7:58 |
: It supposed to be right before the Tribulation, I think. Oh, wait, I thought you wrote “Rapture.”
|
| 7:58 |
Don’t forget about the wisdom of Jamie Campbell and Gregg Zaun! |
| 7:58 |
: And Zaun’s pinstriped playoff suit.
|
| 7:59 |
I really don’t understand the hate for the Cardinals. They are just a really good organization. I get why everyone hates the Yankees – they spend a lot of money on FA, it appears they “buy” their teams. Same for the Red Sox. |
| 8:00 |
: Personally, just to be straightforward, I dislike the Red Sox just as much. With the Cardinals, much of it has to do with the self-proclaimed “Best Fans in Baseball,” a moniker promoted by “objective” media members like Joe Buck.
|
| 8:01 |
: And before anyone says “We don’t call ourselves that, The Sporting News Did”: The Sporting News was (at the time) a St. Louis-based publication.
|
| 8:01 |
Don’t hate the players, hate Joe Buck. |
| 8:01 |
People hate the Cardinals because they win all the time and it’s boring to watch the same team in the playoffs year after year. I’m from STL and a huge fan, but it’s not a mystery. |
| 8:02 |
I always found The Sporting News really boring, so it makes sense it finds its origins in St. Louis. No offense to the great people of St. Louis, etc. |
| 8:02 |
Tim McCarver countdown: min 3 max 5 before he retires |
| 8:03 |
: Well, he’s done with the ASG and post-season after this year… .do you mean totally retires? No idea.
|
| 8:03 |
I hope Boston wins, their fans deserve a break from the torture that they seem to think still befalls them. |
| 8:03 |
papi better than egdar? |
| 8:03 |
Edgar Martinez doesn’t exist apparently |
| 8:03 |
: Didn’t hear the exact line, but Papi can’t hold Frank Thomas’ jock, either.
|
| 8:04 |
: Finally made it, I just can’t handle the pre-game festivities.
|
| 8:05 |
I think some guys in the Sabermetric community is missing one important aspect of baseball. One great example is the recent situation where Mike Matheny chose to stick with Carlos Martinez instead of going with Choate. Lots of Sabermetric nerds were all over Matheny for that. What they don’t take into account is “current form”. Ie, Matheny perhaps, knowingly or unknowingly, saw signs in Martinez delivery (and the way Ortiz were swinging) that actually made his call even the right theoretical choice. So many sabermetricians are stuck on numbers, disregarding what a players mechanics may look on a particular night. Your thoughts Matt? |
| 8:05 |
: Well, I think we have to acknowledge that managers/teams/etc. know stuff like this, but at least in my circles, saberists are generally willing to acknowledge stuff like that.
|
| 8:06 |
: or Martinez could be a stud
|
| 8:06 |
: Hey, when did Jeff get here?
|
| 8:06 |
: Right before that huge comment.
|
| 8:06 |
: I’m glad he’s here so I can take a break to watch an old Monk episode if the game gets out of hand.
|
| 8:09 |
When is someone going to throw a ball or something? |
| 8:09 |
: Finally.
|
| 8:09 |
I am huge Cardinals fan, so probably biased, and trying not to be overly influenced by the beards, but Cardinals players are quite a bit better looking than the RedSox — average score of 8 vs 3 |
| 8:10 |
: Clay Buchholz is laughing at Kelly — this kid is going to burn himself out throwing pitches so often.
|
| 8:10 |
: Kelly looks a bit like Bradley Woodrum
|
| 8:10 |
: Career wRC+: David Ortiz 138; Edgar 147; Big Hurt 154
|
| 8:11 |
When following a game online, do you prefer GameCast (ESPN), GameDay (MLB), or something else? |
| 8:12 |
: MLB, I like the pitch speeds.
|
| 8:12 |
: I always use GameDay, but an open to other stuff.
|
| 8:12 |
The Big Hurt is one of baseball’s best nicknames. Right after the Big Unit |
| 8:12 |
98 with movement is sick |
| 8:13 |
: Not sure the Cardinals will ever have consistent success with a manager with so little experience, ya’ll.
|
| 8:16 |
c-o-w-e-i-e-i-o |
| 8:16 |
: So Jeff, are the using Kauffman Stadium’s Pitchf/x stuff in St. Louis toonight?
|
| 8:16 |
: Not sure
|
| 8:17 |
Has anyone ever tried to quantify whether post-season experience makes a difference in player performance? It seems like you could do it, but there would be serious selection bias. |
| 8:17 |
: Do you mean whether it should be incorporated into projections?
|
| 8:18 |
: Kelly can reach 99, but it is really uncommon. Peavy’s speed looks fine.
|
| 8:18 |
No, just whether players with past post-season experience perform better in subsequent post-seasons than comparable players without prior experience. |
| 8:20 |
: I have never seen one.
|
| 8:20 |
Matt, how do you feel about the overuse of your first name? Three of first four hitters in Cards lineup named Matt, sweet fancy moses! |
| 8:20 |
: I’m furious. FURIOUS.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-greatest-matts-in-playoff-history/ |
| 8:21 |
Big Hurt vs. Big Unit: .233/.389/.628 in 54 PA. (5 HR, 18 K) |
| 8:22 |
: Element of Surprise!
|
| 8:22 |
: He needed to hit a bit harder and he may have had a Cano double.
|
| 8:23 |
: Saw a suggestion on Twitter that Beltran might have more pain when hitting from the left side, hence the bunt (partly). Not saying it’s true, just through it out there.
|
| 8:23 |
: I see one of out commentators mentioned it, too. sorry, just no ticed it.
|
| 8:23 |
: BTW, during the regular season, bunts against the shift were successful for hits 50% of the time.
|
| 8:23 |
Re: Overuse of “Matt”– What’s the most accomplished First Name in sports? Barry makes a surprisingly strong effort (Bonds and Sanders). Anything else come to mind? |
| 8:23 |
: Matt Stairs. ’nuff said.
|
| 8:23 |
that wins the worst bunt of the year easily, right? |
| 8:24 |
: possibly
|
| 8:24 |
: Can’t say until I go over the Royals’ game logs.
|
| 8:24 |
Luke Scott once bunted for singles three times in one game vs. his shift! |
| 8:24 |
: Is this true? If so, that’s pretty awesome.
|
| 8:25 |
Matt is 3 for 3 in 1st inning, FYI |
| 8:26 |
: BOOYAH
|
| 8:26 |
For nicknames I was always partial to the Big Cat |
| 8:26 |
: Looks like Matt may be watching Monk tonight.
|
| 8:27 |
: It’s just a really appealing show. “Hey, let’s make an OCD character so extreme and whiny that he’s totally unlikable!”
|
| 8:27 |
Speaking of Royals, MLBTR predicted 5 years, 75 million for Ervin Santana. That’s madness, right? |
| 8:28 |
: Yes, but every year there are 1-2 huge pitcher over pays because teams need a starter.
|
| 8:28 |
: Giants fans think that’s a total steal!
|
| 8:29 |
| 8:29 |
Scott’s bunts make Blue Jays rethink shift |
| 8:31 |
Monk question: Did you prefer Sharona or Natalie? |
| 8:32 |
: Can’t believe I’m admitting to have watched the show… but as far as the show goes, I though the episodes with Sharona were better. Probably because the show was fresher the viewer hadn’t grown sick of his childishness.
|
| 8:32 |
: I agree players should bunt, but some players just won’t. In 2013 Chris Davis’ BABIP vs. the shift was .302, no shift it was .425
|
| 8:32 |
randy marries sharona in the finale |
| 8:33 |
: Tthere were hints that they wanted randy to end up with Natalie, too, but I think the producers made peace with the actress who played Sharona and wanted to wrap up her storyline.
|
| 8:33 |
MonkGraphs |
| 8:33 |
: It is one of those shows that makes you wonder how Stottlmeyer and Randy ever advanced as far as they did.
|
| 8:34 |
At least one person is now pissed about spoilers |
| 8:34 |
: I wonder if the next pitch will be away.
|
| 8:35 |
: Who is this Nava guy?
|
| 8:36 |
Damn it Jeff stop talking about baseball |
| 8:36 |
: HOLY COW
|
| 8:36 |
no more jonny gomes – good luck charm? |
| 8:36 |
I have Nava clue, Jeff. |
| 8:36 |
WOW |
| 8:37 |
Matt Carpenter, master defender. |
| 8:37 |
Pete Kozma saw that and cried a little inside |
| 8:38 |
kelly’s breaking pitches are really tight, he just doesnt always have the greatest command of them |
| 8:39 |
: I remember when Carson and I did a playoff chat a year or two ago and one guy got REALLY MAD that we weren’t talking baseball enough.
|
| 8:40 |
: Did you talk baseball at all?
|
| 8:40 |
This is the opposite of a Cameron chat |
| 8:40 |
Was that one guy Carson? |
| 8:40 |
: YES, Jeff, we did.
|
| 8:40 |
Do you think Carpenter starts next season at 2B or 3B? |
| 8:41 |
: We’re talking about Chris, right?
|
| 8:41 |
In fairness Carson probably wasn’t even watching the game |
| 8:41 |
I feel like getting REALLY MAD at Carson would be like getting REALLY mad at Vin Scully or the Dali Lama….. |
| 8:41 |
I was here for that and kept asking off-topic questions. |
| 8:41 |
Carson? Playoffs? Chat? Go home, you’re drunk. |
| 8:42 |
: “Kelly does something”
|
| 8:43 |
: Jake Peavy: all pumped when they are winning, quiet when he’s not pitching well. A front runner, perfect for Boston. Can’t believe he isn’t a Celtic.
|
| 8:44 |
Jake Peavy: Direct descendant of Braveheart |
| 8:44 |
: McCarver, the main reason I’d be concerned about Peavy is because he’s throwing a 88 mph fastballs with bad location.
|
| 8:45 |
Off topic, I played high school baseball against Joe Buck |
| 8:45 |
: I did not.
|
| 8:45 |
You should beaned him |
| 8:46 |
: So what, I shared a hotel room with Jeff Zimmeran of FanGraphs and freelance consulting at consecutive Spring Trainings.
|
| 8:47 |
Im sure being Jack Buck’s kid didnt get him ANY special treatment whatsoever. |
| 8:47 |
Maybe it was a bean to the head that made him the way he is |
| 8:49 |
: I think Jeff will agree that the Royals loved that first inning of offense from the Cardinals: bunts and singles train, the basics of run-scoring!
|
| 8:49 |
I met Carrot Top once! Sorry, I was feeling left out. |
| 8:49 |
From what I remember (and this is 25+ years ago) I got a single off him (and then was picked off) |
| 8:49 |
: I need to find a radio, Buck is killing me, the radio team is much better.
|
| 8:50 |
: Glove sighting, drink.
|
| 8:50 |
Is Kelly actually this good? |
| 8:50 |
: No.
|
| 8:51 |
Buck killing Jeff is not figurative. If you listen closely to the announcers, you can hear his dying screams in the background. |
| 8:51 |
Is the gun reading fast? |
| 8:52 |
: if it is, Peavy is way down.
|
| 8:52 |
I have more faith in Peavy getting a hit in this game than Drew getting one |
| 8:53 |
Stephen Drew: good at baseball, just not now |
| 8:55 |
: Went over to look at Brooks on Peavy.
If the gun is hot, Peavy may be 5 mph below is average. |
| 8:56 |
I wonder if the announcers will accidentally call him J.D. again today. |
| 8:56 |
Obviously the gun is like a hot-cold patch. Goes hot for one team, cold for the other. |
| 8:56 |
Both pitchers are better hitters than both shortstops |
| 8:57 |
: Kelly’s fastball has been trending up recently.
|
| 8:58 |
Eventually, it will trend up to 120 MPH or so. |
| 8:58 |
: Of course.
|
| 8:58 |
It would help prepare us for Buchholz tomorrow. |
| 8:59 |
“It may sound simplistic” (this kind of summarizes most of what McCarver says) |
| 8:59 |
How does Kelly consistently outperform his talent? |
| 9:00 |
: Nice Circus
|
| 9:00 |
*circus music |
| 9:00 |
that was fun |
| 9:00 |
That was a comedy of errors. |
| 9:00 |
: He’s been good, but he’s only got a little over one season (230 IP) total in the majors — let’s wait before he label him an “overperformer.”
|
| 9:00 |
Hate these interviews. Exciting play going on. 0 mention |
| 9:01 |
glad we had that interview instead of play by play of that |
| 9:01 |
Holliday can’t hustle in the World Series? |
| 9:01 |
Do Buck and McCarver even know that just happeneD? |
| 9:01 |
Good thing we have this enlightening conversation with David Ross |
| 9:01 |
Oh hey baseball is happening… let’s talk to Rossinstead about beards |
| 9:01 |
This WS will be remembered for all the errors. |
| 9:01 |
The cardinal way |
| 9:02 |
“It’s really not good baserunning by holiday.” Can’t get anything by you, Tim. |
| 9:02 |
Worst coverage ever. |
| 9:02 |
If Yasiel Puig just showed that lack of hustle Joe Buck would have kittens in the booth. |
| 9:02 |
World Series + Errors = Tigers pitchers in 06 |
| 9:03 |
Did anyone notice the bird taking a face plant in that replay |
| 9:03 |
: Yes.
|
| 9:03 |
People acutally complaining that McCarver and Buck weren’t talking. What is the world coming to? |
| 9:03 |
Are you saying Joe Buck is anti-Cuban or pro-Castro? |
| 9:03 |
Matt Holliday not hustling so much it looks like he’s literally motionless |
| 9:03 |
Puig would have circled the bases on that play |
| 9:04 |
Holiday is an old vet not some young punk Buck can allow it. |
| 9:04 |
: Love that they go right back to the well with MORE PLAYER INTERVIEWS.
|
| 9:04 |
: I am calling a HR during the interview.
|
| 9:05 |
also, holliday is white… so its still “the right way” |
| 9:06 |
Cardinals good karma may be gone with that Holliday play |
| 9:06 |
And the “battle” begins between Ellsbury and Molina. |
| 9:06 |
Is Ellsbury ever going to test Molina and go for a steal? |
| 9:07 |
: No real reason to push it with 3 outs give. Can’t lose the runner IMO.
|
| 9:07 |
How much money would it take to fly Vin Scully from LA to St. Louis by tomorrow and take over for Buck and McCarver for the rest of the series? |
| 9:08 |
: WHAT ABOUT REX HUDLER??????
|
| 9:08 |
: BBQ CHIPS
|
| 9:08 |
What about the reanimated corpse of Gordon Solie? |
| 9:08 |
Buck Martinez! Replace Joe Buck with a worse Buck. |
| 9:09 |
Red Sox getting beat by a pitcher with two first names and glasses. |
| 9:09 |
relax guys. joe is the best is the biz and isnt going anywhere |
| 9:09 |
: He’s pitching well so far but let’s not go nuts.
|
| 9:10 |
Jon Jay appears to be playing CF a lot better this series than last. |
| 9:10 |
: How dare you. Defense doesn’t slump, ya know.
|
| 9:11 |
its a mirage, jay never plays a good CF |
| 9:13 |
: That must be as much of a pitch a pitch around with 1B open. MY BRAIN
|
| 9:13 |
The non-intentional intentional walk. |
| 9:13 |
: I will have an article on it Monday for Rotographs, Oritz is the king of it.
|
| 9:14 |
I don’t like that walk. Ellsbury will score from second on a base hit |
| 9:14 |
Jay looked like a drunken sailor against the Dodgers. How could he not look better? |
| 9:14 |
: “Joe Kelly” is even more of a 1920s baseball name than ” Scott Baker.”
|
| 9:15 |
i just pictured mccarver as mugato from zoolander “ortiz is so hot right now” |
| 9:16 |
That was way outside… |
| 9:16 |
: yes it was.
|
| 9:17 |
Unless he had a nickname. Like “Coke Bottle” Joe Kelly. Because his glasses are made from the bottom of Coke bottles. Or something. |
| 9:17 |
Ortiz scoring on a long single? McCarver is on fire tonight! |
| 9:17 |
Also, “Coke Bottle” Jim Kelly actually sounds really cool. |
| 9:19 |
I wonder what Scott Baker’s nickname would be. Scott “Bread” Baker, because in the 1920s his dad was a bread maker or something? |
| 9:20 |
I actually heard McCarver say that the ball gets slippery when it is raining once. |
| 9:21 |
“the team that scores the most runs often wins the game” – Tim McCarver |
| 9:21 |
“Home Run” appropriate but already taken |
| 9:21 |
Joe Kelly and Scott Baker are more like 1950s baseball names, when eveyone was white and lived in the suburbs. Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, those are 1920s names, regardless of what years those guys actually played. I don’t remember, I wasn’t there. |
| 9:21 |
: Peavy was shaking his arm on that pitch. He may not be right.
|
| 9:22 |
So I should throw from the windup with runners on Tim? Or maybe I should try getting the leadoff out? Like maybe inducing a shallow popup? |
| 9:22 |
Has there ever been another human named Honus? |
| 9:23 |
Just got here. Is this the Missouri-South Carolina Live Blog? Great first half. |
| 9:23 |
It has to be Joe Kelly. Scott wasn’t one of the top 200 male baby names in either the 1890s or 1900s. Joseph was 6th and 7th, respectively. |
| 9:23 |
Honus is like the nickname for Johannes, so yes. |
| 9:23 |
: Do you think Joe Kelly rides around town on one of those hold-timey bikes with a huge front wheel?
|
| 9:24 |
Johannes Wagner does have a nice right to it |
| 9:24 |
: “why bunt” is this the same broadcast crew.
|
| 9:26 |
Tim McCarver is a genius |
| 9:26 |
: I think my TV broke from the sonic booms from that shot of Molina running.
|
| 9:26 |
Those old timey bikes are called velocipedes. |
| 9:26 |
Every time I try to think of an old timey baseball name I always end up with a disease for the first name. Like Rheumatism Jones. |
| 9:27 |
They also had the nickname of boneshaker because of how the person felt while riding over any sort of bump. |
| 9:27 |
phil hartman could probably do a great tim mccarver |
| 9:28 |
: if Pedroia was a Cardinal it would be the Most Annoying Thing Ever.
|
| 9:28 |
How do you not run on Elsbury’s noodle arm? Especially with the pitcher up (twice) |
| 9:28 |
: No idea.
|
| 9:29 |
it was yadi on third, noodle arm vs thunder thighs |
| 9:30 |
Ortiz acting like he was going to catch that was pure comedy gold. |
| 9:30 |
There’s a baseball game to be played in Australia? |
| 9:30 |
: Justin Huber, baby.
|
| 9:30 |
Workman vs Carpenter would be the msot blue-collar match up ever |
| 9:31 |
: Wow, the Cards are missing a lot of opportunities. #banalysis
|
| 9:31 |
Finally Peavy realizes the cards aren’t swinging at any first pitches |
| 9:31 |
POPOPOPOPUPUPUPUP |
| 9:31 |
HOUDINI! |
| 9:32 |
I hope Cards pitchers were taking notes on catching those pop ups |
| 9:32 |
: Time for weird local commercials.
|
| 9:33 |
Hope Ellsbury was too |
| 9:33 |
: but yeah, 20/20 hindsight, blah blah blah but the Cards really should have used Craig there
|
| 9:35 |
: I am pretty sure Peavy gets pulled now.
|
| 9:35 |
: and it begins
|
| 9:35 |
That was pretty cool |
| 9:35 |
How, exactly, does momentum smell? |
| 9:36 |
A little like brimstone I imagine… |
| 9:36 |
Like Steve Bartman |
| 9:36 |
Moises Alou’s hands |
| 9:37 |
Matheny won’t get anyone up here because Kelly has a chance to get a win. |
| 9:38 |
: This is true.
|
| 9:38 |
cue the slow hook twitter posts by the entire fangraphs staff |
| 9:39 |
Drew was just handed “Wonder Boy”. |
| 9:39 |
Come on Drew, one time in your life |
| 9:39 |
: Everyone is following MGL on Twitter, right? https://twitter.com/mitchellichtman
|
| 9:40 |
I can’t tell if the ump is bad or if Yaider Molina is that good at pitch framing. |
| 9:41 |
: A little of both tonight, even Salty has “framed” a few strikes.
|
| 9:42 |
If Stephen Drew keeps this up he will be more hated than JD in Boston. |
| 9:42 |
At least JD had that grand slam |
| 9:43 |
And more loved in STL than JD |
| 9:44 |
At least people know how JD and Stephen Drew are. |
| 9:44 |
And Nancy Drew. |
| 9:45 |
: “A double play is a hard play to set up a pitcher” – No $hit
|
| 9:45 |
Should Victorino still be batting second? |
| 9:46 |
: If you think he’s been good enough during the regular season to do so, then no reason to change based on a small playoff sample.
|
| 9:46 |
This umpire is terrible. |
| 9:46 |
: I would say he shouldn’t be hitting that high vs. RHP given his platoon split, though. And that goes for the regular season, too.
|
| 9:49 |
: Great shot of Jason Motte there.
|
| 9:49 |
how much do we know about victorino’s split vs righties as a righty though? |
| 9:49 |
: It’s the Jason Motte show.
|
| 9:50 |
: Not much, but if we assume he’s just an average righty, given his overall true talent then we should assume he has an average split, which means he’s still probably below-average vs. RHP in terms of true talent. Just his observed performance this year is a virtually meaningless sample.
|
| 9:51 |
: So here’s a fun Canadian commercial: The Keg is a Canadian chain steakhouse. Every time we go it’s mostly families and older people. the commercials they’ve been showing lately make it look like Hot Young Hookup Central.
|
| 9:52 |
I talked about that a week ago – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-grand-slam-that-almost-wasnt/. In short, he has better power and much worse plate discipline than when he bats lefty. We can’t be confident on the specifics of course. |
| 9:52 |
Well, the 4:30PM demographic might be different than the 8 PM one |
| 9:53 |
As to Jason Motte, the plethora of truly bad beards in either clubhouse makes me appreciate the Yankees’ player grooming policy, and I don’t want to ever appreciate Yankees anything. |
| 9:54 |
I wish we were watching A’s vs Pirates |
| 9:55 |
: Don’t most of us.
|
| 9:56 |
: Dodgers-Tigers would have had an awesome Greinke-Brayan pena reunion, at least.
|
| 9:56 |
: Although Michael Young and Toriiii Hunter mostly would have canceled that out.
|
| 9:56 |
BA of batters vs Kelly 3rd time through? |
| 9:57 |
: Looks like a 50 point jump in OPS
|
| 9:57 |
Yes, that’s why Adams stayed at second – he didn’t want to take a chance.. |
| 9:57 |
Should have had all 9 guys playing on the right side |
| 9:58 |
: Adams is ridiculous on his pull numbers.
|
| 9:58 |
time for freese to earn his check for next year |
| 9:59 |
Not to mention this year |
| 9:59 |
: I’m not in love with that IBB.
|
| 10:00 |
In MLB history, has there ever been a situation with two slower runners on at the same time? |
| 10:01 |
: This ump is all over the place.
|
| 10:01 |
: Steamer projects Molina for a .347 wOBA, Freese for .343. Freese has the bigger platoon split. Playing with fire a bit, although odds are that it will “work.”
|
| 10:01 |
Is there any IBB you’re actually in love with? Or just infatuated with? |
| 10:01 |
: Had a crush on one in high school, but it went off with a guy a hated. Haven’t been able to love since then.
|
| 10:01 |
Aren’t the odds always in favor of the batter making an out? |
| 10:02 |
: Yes, that was my point. Doesn’t validate the decision.
|
| 10:02 |
: Freese with his back injury puts his projected down about OPS down 100 points.
|
| 10:02 |
: Freese is worse by a long way.
|
| 10:02 |
The Book says you break even with a wOBA ratio of 1.27 |
| 10:03 |
: Yeah and it isn’t close to that once you take platoon stuff into consideration. What Jeff is saying about the back injury makes it closer, I suppose, but probably doesn’t make it an obvious walk.
|
| 10:03 |
I’m sorry, I’m a bit lost. Could you explain the “The Book says you break even with a wOBA ratio of 1.27” comment please? |
| 10:04 |
: A lot of complicated stuff. There’s a chapter in “The Book” (www.insidethebook.com) on when to IBB based on projected wOBA of a batter and those after him, score, base/out/score situation, and then what ratio of wOBA the battter in question has over the batter(s) behind him in order for the IBB to be a good idea.
|
| 10:06 |
Seems like the Cardinals should have more than a 2-1 lead. Lost their Mojo after the Holliday gaffe. |
| 10:07 |
Victorino usually figures out how to let that hit him. |
| 10:07 |
Thank you Matt! |
| 10:09 |
: Yes, Jeff, Kelly looks almost as much like Bradley Woodrum as Eric Sogard looks like Carson Cistulli.
|
| 10:10 |
: Nice.
|
| 10:11 |
: And I am done for the night, MGL agree with me on Freese’s injury.
|
| 10:11 |
: Oh sure, Jeff follows MGL on Twitter but not me.
|
| 10:12 |
: I am just following him tonight.
|
| 10:12 |
: I don’t follow many people at all, but I am following MGL tonight.
|
| 10:13 |
If a pitch bounces into the strike zone, is it a strike? |
| 10:14 |
Only if Vlad Guerrero is batting. |
| 10:14 |
yikes, I thought I was “anti-social” following only 322. |
| 10:15 |
: Maybe “Cover It Live” classic will work better for me.
|
| 10:15 |
hoping to see a home plate collision with adams |
| 10:15 |
: I followed a ton for while and it was just a huge time sink. I backed way down on the number.
|
| 10:16 |
This ump needs glasses |
| 10:16 |
: Lyle wins tonight for originality.
|
| 10:17 |
He can borrow Joe Kelly’s! |
| 10:17 |
I told you Ortiz owned lefties in clutch situations. |
| 10:18 |
Maness’ GB% is insane. |
| 10:19 |
: 68.4%
|
| 10:19 |
Looks like Matheny is speeding up his hook tonight |
| 10:19 |
“Matheny should’ve left in Joe Kelly” – Captain Hindsight |
| 10:20 |
Should Boston pinch run for Ortiz here and then bring in Napoli? |
| 10:21 |
: I would save Napoli’s bat, it will be more important later than trying to score from 1B
|
| 10:21 |
Why? Ortiz hasn’t committed an error in his career in World Series games. You don’t want to take his glove out of the game. |
| 10:22 |
: Is it time to bust out the chocolate truffle cake?
|
| 10:22 |
Literally the first pitch all night that ended with the Sox > 50% WP |
| 10:22 |
: Guess that should have been a poll question.
|
| 10:23 |
That sounds amazing. Why has it taken you this long to eat it? |
| 10:23 |
Yes! |
| 10:25 |
bit harsh |
| 10:25 |
I thought that tweet was going to be about cake. Now I’m sad. |
| 10:25 |
: Not endorsing that tweet. Just thought this place needed to be MGL’d a bit.
|
| 10:26 |
Could the significance of the cake be explained to me in a loving and nonthreatening way? Thanks. |
| 10:26 |
: I’m hungry and it is delicious.
|
| 10:28 |
I don’t get cake? |
| 10:28 |
: I didn’t get any either.
|
| 10:28 |
: Yes, Jake Peavy was so great in the fourth inning in which he pitched out of situations that just randomly happened.
|
| 10:29 |
: Another shot of the first time a second baseman ever caught a line drive.
|
| 10:29 |
: what was with the tennis shot.
|
| 10:29 |
they are taking about that play like it was a difficult play |
| 10:30 |
Tim McCarver talking about tennis is just what |
| 10:30 |
why, just why |
| 10:30 |
If anyone would be amused by that, it’s Tim McCarver |
| 10:31 |
: That was almost as incredible as the time Pedroia was the first player ever to just have a would-be home run ball go foul. The hall has already requested the bat and ball from that play.
|
| 10:31 |
GUYZ DID U NO BASEBALL AND TENNIS ARE BOTH SPORTS THAT REQUIRE ATHLETICISM?? |
| 10:31 |
Next inning: Roger Federer joins Tim McCarver in the booth to call the 7th inning! |
| 10:31 |
mccarver for president |
| 10:31 |
But guys, they both hop! |
| 10:31 |
Federer doesn’t hop. Argument over. |
| 10:31 |
McCarver is just a bad a tennis commentator |
| 10:31 |
In all seriousness, can you imagine being in the broadcast booth and getting sent that comparison – knowing you have to ramble about it for at least 30 seconds…bad spot to be in. |
| 10:32 |
: Pat Summerall would have handled it with a bong, uh, I mean aplomb.
|
| 10:32 |
Are you going to show us a picture of that cake, or what? |
| 10:32 |
: can’t believe I’m gonna do this
|
| 10:33 |
IS there a live chat tomorrow? |
| 10:33 |
: will take a while, I gotta ge tout of this chair
|
| 10:33 |
: Yes and you may get some real commentary.
|
| 10:34 |
We’re beginning to think the “cake” is like the “girlfriend from canada.” |
| 10:34 |
The cake is a lie |
| 10:34 |
: A response to MGL’s earlier tweet: https://twitter.com/DarrenSechrist/status/394289270350815232
|
| 10:34 |
I hope it’s not Dave chatting tomorrow. All he ever wants to talk about is baseball. |
| 10:35 |
Real commentary is dull. Tonight has been loads of fun. It’s kinda like a gag reel chat. |
| 10:35 |
I think the fact that FOX thinks a 2-2 game in the World Series tied 1-1 needs spicing up with things like tennis comparisons is a perfect distillation of how clueless they are |
| 10:36 |
You need the fun commentary to cover the 30 minutes in between Red Sox pitches. |
| 10:36 |
PRAISE THE GODS. STEPHEN DREW IS GONE |
| 10:37 |
: beer run
|
| 10:37 |
Time for another half hour of patriotic songs. |
| 10:40 |
: All I going to pissed if they f-up Ender’s Game, I loved the book
|
| 10:41 |
Well, the author visited the set and said the movie didn’t even resemble the book, so… |
| 10:41 |
That seems like a hard movie to pull off. Actual kids aren’t nearly as interesting as Ender and friends |
| 10:41 |
Jeff: YES! I’m excited because I’ve always thought it’d be a good movie (and I think the casting is great), but if they screw it up there will be hell to pay |
| 10:42 |
:
|
| 10:42 |
I agree with you Jeff, the Ender’s Game is a classic. I just wish Orson Scott Card was sane. His insanity makes me hate his work just a little bit. |
| 10:42 |
: Kinda mangled it, and the phone cam isn’t great, but there it is, you bunch of babies.
|
| 10:42 |
Dear God… |
| 10:42 |
Wow so the cake really is the truth after all. |
| 10:42 |
That cake is prettier than a hop by Rafi Nadal |
| 10:45 |
Just received word from Dave Cameron, I’ll be part of tomorrow’s chat crew with Wendy. Assuming I figure out how to log in. Advance warning…I don’t have any cake. |
| 10:45 |
They hit Beltran because they were afraid he’d hit a homer #PraiseBeltran |
| 10:45 |
you gonna finish that? |
| 10:47 |
did mccarver really just bring up the fictional attempt to get out of the way rule |
| 10:47 |
: He may have, craziness.
|
| 10:47 |
So getting knicked by a ball is when it comes super close but doesn’t touch you? Interesting. |
| 10:48 |
: David Ortiz chatting it up with with a player who is far superior to him in both regular and postseason career numbers.
|
| 10:49 |
: I know I’ve said this a number of ways, but Matt Holliday has been one of the more underrated players in baseball for years.
|
| 10:49 |
Can’t wait to see Boston fans complaining about Beltran even though Victorino does the same thing all the damn time. |
| 10:50 |
In Play (runs) |
| 10:51 |
Beltran selfishly padding his postseason run count #BlameBeltran |
| 10:51 |
: Who was that jumping up and down like a girl in the Cards dugout?
|
| 10:51 |
Not very clutch |
| 10:52 |
: Hopefully Chris Carpenter.
|
| 10:53 |
middlebrooks completely botched that |
| 10:53 |
Does Xander make that play if he’s at 3rd instead of Middlebrooks? |
| 10:53 |
: Possibly, Middlebrooks looked slow to react.
|
| 10:55 |
As an Orioles fan I got Mark Reynolds flashbacks from watching that replay… Slow feet |
| 10:55 |
I think it was more an issue of positioning. Probably should have been a bit closer to the line. |
| 10:55 |
: I think that’s a tough play for most third basemen, but I defer to other more knowledgeable people.
|
| 10:55 |
: I don’t think no doubles should be in effect, a player wants to stop any hit with a runner at 2B
|
| 10:56 |
It was Chris Carpenter (jumping up and down like a toddler). Middlebrooks shoulda gotten to that. New Bill Buckner? |
| 10:56 |
: Thanks.
|
| 10:58 |
that still would’ve been a good play if it was made, no where near buckner level |
| 10:58 |
Middlebrooks wasn’t charged with an error. No, not a new Bill Buckner. |
| 10:58 |
Missing a dive is hardly similar to a ball through the wickets. |
| 10:59 |
haha, sorry — right. not Buckner. too exaggerated on my part. |
| 11:00 |
: You’re forgiven. I didn’t even really care about that part. I wanted to know who the little girl was in the dugout.
|
| 11:00 |
: Wow, what happened to Breslow’s K rate this year? I guess his velocity decline probably plays a big part in it…
|
| 11:00 |
The Matt Holliday contract is starting to look like one of the best contracts of its length of all time, right? If not the best? |
| 11:01 |
i’d be jumping around like a little girl if i was in that dugout too |
| 11:01 |
Just saying, little boys do that too… |
| 11:02 |
: Let’s not go nuts on the Holliday contract. The end will probably not be great, but that’s par for the course. I did discuss how it was smart in view of the Cards’ longer-term plans. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/holliday-and-the-cardinals-post-pujols-plan/
|
| 11:03 |
All the Red Sox need at this point is two runs. This comment will not be published, unless it is. |
| 11:03 |
Speaking of jumping in the dugout: http://i.imgflip.com/3h1xk.gif |
| 11:03 |
my biggest problem with the holliday contract is that they seemingly bid against themselves |
| 11:04 |
cd is tim mccarver! |
| 11:04 |
Remember Holliday on the A’s? |
| 11:05 |
: Remember what they gave up to get him for one season…. but hey, at least they turned him into Brett Wallace, who turned into Michael Taylor.
|
| 11:05 |
A bit off topic: Do you think the Lincecum contract was more a reaction to what the Dodgers have done with signings in the last year than what Tim is actually worth? |
| 11:07 |
: Timmah contract will be on par IMO. Teams seem to over pay for IP instead of RA/FIP
|
| 11:07 |
Not really. Sabean has done this time and time again and overvalued a player due to him being familiar with how they play. Aubrey Huff is waving as we speak. |
| 11:07 |
I think it’s probably just an indication that A) there’s a lot of money in baseball right now B) Not that many pitchers with his upside/mean expectation and C) few players as marketable in San Fran |
| 11:07 |
: so you think wins are going to go for about $9 million this off-season, Jeff?
|
| 11:08 |
: People who criticize the Lincecum contract aren’t remembering all the extra money The Frenchy Quarter pulled in for the Royals.
|
| 11:08 |
: He was 7% higher than I had him pegged.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/starting-pitcher-free-agent-salary-projections-1.html |
| 11:09 |
If the Red Sox only get two runs the rest of the game, they will lose. |
| 11:09 |
Remember who the A’s traded for Holliday? |
| 11:10 |
: Yeah, but all the marketing they were going to do around Holliday! #homerbasedanalysis
|
| 11:11 |
Tim McCarver just keeps talking… |
| 11:11 |
: Did he stop?
|
| 11:12 |
Not yet |
| 11:12 |
Why is Tim this stupid? He was commentating when Gossage and the like were around, not so specialised in the relief corps |
| 11:14 |
This is why Victorino should be batting at the bottom of the order. Your 2 hitter needs to be productive. You don’t want Victorino coming up in these situations |
| 11:14 |
a Victorino HBP that ACTUALLY would have hit any other batter |
| 11:14 |
: #cantpredictbase
|
| 11:15 |
What? A HBP isn’t productive? |
| 11:16 |
: Just thought that comment was funny to publish right after Victorino got on base. Not really fair of me since it was submitted before the HBP. Entertaining, though.
|
| 11:16 |
Does WAR account for HBPs? It doesn’t because wOBA doesn’t, right? Good grief. |
| 11:17 |
: wOBA incorporates HBPs.
|
| 11:17 |
: thus WAR does, too.
|
| 11:18 |
Ah, so it does. With a higher weight than BBs, too, according to wikipedia. I stand corrected. |
| 11:18 |
lots of backup sliders |
| 11:18 |
frisbees |
| 11:19 |
IBB? |
| 11:19 |
: Just barely higher. On average (at least for the era in which the wOBA weights are derived), HBPs take place in situations in which the “free base” alters run expectancy just a bit more.
|
| 11:19 |
You’d hope there’s no IBB |
| 11:19 |
Aaaaannnnnndddd I stand corrected. |
| 11:19 |
I don’t know that I like this iBB…(mostly because I don’t like iBB in general) |
| 11:22 |
: Rosenthal actually better vs. lefties (observed) than righties: .245 wOBA career vs LHH .282 wOBA vs RHP
|
| 11:23 |
Proof Joe Kelly is the more 1920s name, BTW: There were actually 2 baseball players in the 1920s named Joe Kelly according to Wikipedia, no Scott Bakers. |
| 11:23 |
Deja vu. Pinch run for Ortiz? |
| 11:24 |
: Still no with, I would save napoli’s at bat.
|
| 11:24 |
: Of course, the math for pitcher platoon splits is much more complicated than for batters, and though it requires fewer PA, Rosenthal still has a small sample.
|
| 11:25 |
that was a heck of a play |
| 11:25 |
that was a nice play. |
| 11:25 |
Ummmmm horrible footwork by Wong there. |
| 11:26 |
YEEEES |
| 11:26 |
Tiedgame! |
| 11:27 |
kozma will win the WS with a HR, calling goat to hero storyline |
| 11:27 |
Kozma-colypse! |
| 11:27 |
If the Red Sox win the WS, they should make Kozma the MVP. |
| 11:27 |
That was a damn impossible play but lets make fun of Kozma anyway |
| 11:28 |
: Can’t wait for McCarver to say the equivalent of: “The Cardinals can still regain the lead if they score.”
|
| 11:31 |
Or maybe “The Red Sox will win if they have a shutdown inning here.” |
| 11:31 |
Matt, is it a sip or a shot if he says that? |
| 11:31 |
This might be a late night, fellas. |
| 11:31 |
: A piece of cake, or, “caek.”
|
| 11:32 |
: Love that they’re raving about Peavy’s fourth inning in which he just about let the game get blown open then lucked out.
|
| 11:32 |
Matt, FOX doesn’t believe in FIP. Pitcher is fully responsible for everything. Duh. |
| 11:33 |
so with the double switch the cards might not even get to PH craig |
| 11:33 |
: Really surprised that Alcides Escobar is playing shortstop for the Cardinals, you all.
|
| 11:34 |
Why dont Fox advertise their actually good lineup of comedies |
| 11:35 |
did he just call him Golden Wong? |
| 11:35 |
“teeming with team players”: #Vomit |
| 11:35 |
“teeming with team players” yuck yuck yuck |
| 11:35 |
Let ‘er rip! |
| 11:35 |
: beyblade fan?
|
| 11:35 |
Pedroia didn’t jump before that play. No hop = No play |
| 11:37 |
probably a mistake to throw over to papi too many times |
| 11:39 |
Nadal would’ve scored had there been a hop on that one |
| 11:39 |
Tim – once again – is wrong. A RHB still doesn’t really see that unless it’s a called steal. |
| 11:39 |
Was the workman-carpenter matchup blue collar enough for the earlier commenter? |
| 11:40 |
No, Styx’s Blue Collar Man should have been playing in the background |
| 11:41 |
: Holliday is just a homer and a triple short of the cycle, ya’ll.
|
| 11:41 |
New poll: Should Blue Collar Man be Workman’s walk up theme? |
| 11:41 |
Wher is Koji |
Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.
Matt, you live in Toronto, what are the chances someone goes to a bar tonight in Toronto (on a Saturday) when the Leafs are playing the Penguins and gets the bar to play the World Series on just 1 TV?