Wrapping Up The Week

We’ve spent the past week talking about the projected level of production teams could get in 2009 from various minor league free agents at different positions. After all, since we talk about replacement level so frequently, we want to be able to give examples to people of exactly who these freely available, somewhat useful players are.

Next week, we’ll dive into the pitchers, but for today, I want to talk a little bit more about some things that came up during the discussion of the position players.

One point of wOBA is worth about half a run per 600 PA.

I’m assuming that this became pretty obvious to most of you as we did the run value formula in each post, but I wanted to reinforce it here, because I think it’s useful to grasping the relative importance of offense, especially as it compares to defensive value. Because we know how wOBA relates to runs, and we have defensive metrics expressed in runs, it’s easy to compare how different skill sets are valued.

For instance, we pointed out that the .306 wOBA/+7.5 defense group that we called center fielders weren’t finding jobs any easier than a .315 wOBA/-12.5 defense group (left fielders). However, since we know 11 points of wOBA is worth 5.5 runs offensively, and UZR suggests that there’s a 20 run gap in defensive ability, the weaker hitters are obviously better players. It’s not even close.

Even if you think our assumptions about the groups relative defensive abilities are off, you could (at best) close the total value gap to something like +5 to +10 runs, instead of the +15 we’d conclude based on the projections of these handful of players. There’s just no way to argue that the center fielders that are settling for minor league contracts are equal in value to the corner outfielders who are getting minor league contracts. The CFs are clearly better players. Why can’t they land major league contracts?

Honestly, I think this is just an incorrect evaluation of the offense/defense split by MLB clubs, which is most obvious in the outfield. As we talked about in the Three CF post from a few weeks ago, several clubs have caught on to the fact that using a okay bat/great glove guy in a corner OF spot can be an extremely effective use of resources.

This idea that the corner outfield spots are the dominion of large power hitters only, and that any skillset in those spots besides the lumbering oaf is a weakness on a major league roster, is left over from days of less knowledge. As we move forward, it will become readily clear to major league teams that they have been, and continue to be, significantly undervaluing the okay bat/great glove types and overvaluing the good bat/bad glove types.

As long as guys like Chris Duffy and Ryan Langerhans continue to have to settle for minor league contracts, there are market inefficiencies that smart teams will take advantage of.