Zach Eflin Reunites With Orioles for 2026 Season

The Baltimore Orioles continued filling out their rotation last weekend, signing right-hander Zach Eflin to a one-year contract worth $10 million with a mutual option for the 2027 season. Traded to the Orioles from the Rays in 2024, Eflin struggled with injuries last year, throwing only 71 1/3 over 14 starts while putting up a 5.93 ERA and -0.3 WAR.

A first-round pick by the Padres out of a Florida high school in 2012, Eflin finally established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter with the Phillies at the end of the decade after being a part of trades for Matt Kemp and Jimmy Rollins. COVID and recurring patella issues in his right knee plagued him in 2021, resulting in season-ending surgery, and he missed another three months in 2022 with more problems with the same knee. Despite the setbacks, the Rays saw enough to sign him to a three-year, $40 million deal entering the 2023 season. Eflin experienced a minor back injury and tendinitis in his other knee, but that only cost him a handful of innings, and the result was his best and most durable campaign. He set career highs in starts (31), innings (177 2/3 innings), ERA (3.50), FIP (3.01), and WAR (4.9). While his numbers sagged a bit in 2024, Eflin was still a quality pitcher whose name bandied in trade rumors before the deadline.

Ultimately, the Orioles acquired him that year for three lesser prospects: pitcher Jackson Baumeister and outfielders Matthew Etzel and Mac Horvath. I was a big fan of that trade, since it addressed Baltimore’s rotation needs in the moment and provided insurance in case Corbin Burnes departed in free agency. ZiPS agreed and thought the Orioles improved more than any other team at a fairly quiet deadline. Eflin did pay off down the stretch and pitched decently in his Wild Card Series start against the Royals, but the O’s scored only a single run in two games, dooming their playoff run.

When Baltimore didn’t re-sign Burnes or add another frontline starter, Eflin entered 2025 as the team’s de facto ace, and things started off well with an Opening Day win over the Red Sox and three quality starts. But he suffered a lat strain in the third of those starts, against the Diamondbacks, and missed a month of the season. By the end of June, Eflin returned to the IL because of nagging back pain, which he said he’d experienced in each of the previous several seasons. He came back 24 days later and made two starts before he required a season-ending lumbar microdiscectomy procedure.

The surgery is expected to have no major repercussions — I had the same surgery a couple years ago and at least that part of my aching back no longer shouts expletives at me regularly — and the hope is that the surgery happened early enough last year for him to have a normal spring training and start the season in the rotation. Naturally, there’s risk involved, or he else would’ve signed for more than the one-year, $10 million contract he received. Even so, by all accounts, he was comfortable with the Orioles, and they certainly need all the help the can get in their rotation after last year’s disastrous performance. Eflin’s option is a big one, for $25 million with a $2 million buyout, and up to $5 million more depending on how many starts he makes in 2026.

Factoring in the injury risk, ZiPS pegs Eflin as a roughly league-average starter in 2026 with upside and suggests giving him a $10.5 million deal. Getting 2023 Eflin would obviously be the preferable outcome, but even this projected line would be a major boon to the rotation after last year’s showing.

Orioles ZiPS haven’t gone live yet, but I have better access to the projections than most, for reasons I hope you can imagine, so I ran down the O’s rotation based on our current Depth Charts innings.

Would this be an amazing rotation? Absolutely not, but it would be miles ahead of what the Baltimore got from its starters last year. These projections would be enough for the Orioles to be real contenders given that their offense should be a big plus. I’d probably be more negative with the inning totals across the board — four of the top five pitchers (except Kremer) have significant injury histories — but that still would leave them with a middle-tier rotation. Now, this hopefully wouldn’t preclude the team from going after one of the top starters available, such as Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez, but this is much better work from the front office than we saw last winter. Rogers, Eflin, Baz, and Bradish are not veterans trying to cobble together one last respectable campaign; rather, they all have some recognizable upside that, if tapped into, could be worthy of an All-Star selection.

Each of the last four World Series featured at least one team making a comeback from a highly disappointing season. The Blue Jays finished last in 2024, the Yankees were a .500 team in 2023, the Rangers and Diamondbacks were mediocre-at-best in 2022, and the Phillies barely were in the black in 2021. The O’s have more work to do if they’re going to be the team to take that place in the script for 2026, but signing Eflin brings the birds a bit closer to being able to fill that role.