After suffering various setbacks through out his career, John Patterson finally pitched his first full season in 2005 for the Washington Nationals. I guess you could say it was worth the wait, as he led the Nationals pitching staff with a 3.13 ERA in just under 200 innings while striking out a team high 185 batters. In July and August he was one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball by going 5-2 with a 1.87 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 81-plus innings of work. Now that he has one full year under his belt, what should we expect from John Patterson in 2006?

For starters he has a good strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) of 2.85 and very good strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) of 8.4 for a starting pitcher. He relies mostly on his fastball which he usually throws in the low 90's but tops out at 97 mph. Occasionally he'll mix in his slider and curveball, but almost never when behind in the count. He'll really start to throw his curveball when he gets two strikes on a batter and it appears to have become his most reliable strikeout pitch. His slider is also a quite effective strikeout pitch, but he doesn't throw it nearly as often with two strikes.

The one thing you have to worry about with him is that he's an extreme fly ball pitcher. Last year he allowed only 7.5% of his fly balls to become home runs (FB/HR). Typically pitchers tend to regress towards the league average of around 11%, but playing in R.F.K. Stadium will certainly help him keep that number lower than average. R.F.K. Stadium has a HR/FB of only 7%, the lowest in baseball.

John Patterson will only be 28 years old next season and has just entered what should be his prime years. Don't read too much into his 9-7 record as he got very little run support with the Nationals. His strikeouts are just where they need to be and there's no reason he still can't continue to limit his walks. As long as he's pitching in R.F.K. Stadium, or other pitcher friendly parks I don't think there's as much cause for alarm as there usually would be in the home run department. His injury history leaves some concern, but if healthy, there's no reason why he can't do just as well as last year if not better. And if the Nationals can manage to pony up some runs for him, more wins will certainly be on the way.

The article I wrote about Juan Padilla being the luckiest pitcher in baseball got me thinking that maybe combining the three statistics of BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB% was not the best way to display a pitcher's overall “luck”. So instead of championing “Luck Factor” as a useful stat, I'm going to make a “luckless” ERA or luck independent ERA (iERA) which will have better practical applications. The formula is actually pretty simple:

iERA = ( ((.3627 * IP) – (.1287 * K) + (.1408 * FB) + (.3 * BB)) * 8.28) / IP

Basically this formula was the result of a bunch of relatively simple algebra on the three “luck” statistics HR/FB, BABIP and LOB%. Instead of solving each formula for each player, I plugged in the major league average for each, and proceeded to find out how many home runs, hits, unearned runs, and finally earned runs a player would have if everything was equal. This formula should normalize ERA for park, league, and in some sense, competition. In other words, it gives a pitcher's ERA as if all pitchers pitched under the same conditions.

Let's take a look at how iERA compares to regular ERA. Naturally there is some correlation here, but the correlation isn't that great. I just did this to make sure they were actually measuring two different things, and they do. What iERA does have a high correlation with is a pitchers strikeout to walk ratio. Not much of surprise here as strikeouts and walks (and fly balls) are what sets pitchers apart in iERA.

So you're probably asking, why should I care about a pitcher's iERA? It's actually quite good at telling you how lucky a pitcher was in any particular year. As you can see, once a player's ERA and iERA start to differ by more than 20%, there's about a 75% chance that his ERA and iERA will be closer the following year. Once you start to see a difference in ERA and iERA over 70%, it's pretty much a given that his ERA and iERA will be closer the next season.

Furthermore, the amount that a player's ERA will revert to iERA is somewhat a function of how far it deviated in the first place. Player's don't tend to stray from a 0% difference in ERA and iERA much further than 20% on average.

So just for kicks, let's take a look at some of the bigger discrepancies in iERA and ERA the past four years and see what they've done the following year. Here are 5 starters and 5 relievers that had a much lower ERA than they did iERA in 2004.

		2004			2005		
Name		ERA	iERA	% Dif	ERA	iERA	% Dif
Joe Nathan	1.62	3.80	-81%	2.70	3.65	-30%
Mike Gonzalez	1.25	2.83	-78%	2.70	4.15	-42%
Steve Kline	1.79	4.00	-77%	4.28	4.67	-9%
Luke Hudson	2.42	5.07	-71%	6.38	5.25	19%
Akinori Otsuka	1.75	3.62	-70%	3.59	4.19	-15%

		2004			2005		
Name		ERA	iERA	% Dif	ERA	iERA	% Dif
Jake Peavy	2.27	3.83	-51%	2.88	3.56	-21%
Al Leiter	3.21	5.07	-45%	6.13	5.41	12%
Bruce Chen	3.02	4.66	-43%	3.83	4.51	-16%
Carlos Zambrano	2.75	4.02	-38%	3.26	3.91	-18%
Tomo Ohka	3.40	4.81	-34%	4.04	4.63	-14%

Each of them did see an increase in their ERA and they all saw a drastic reduction in the percent difference between their ERA and iERA. Now let's take a look at the players that had a much higher ERA than iERA.

		2004			2005		
Name		ERA	iERA	% Dif	ERA	iERA	% Dif
Lance Cormier	8.14	5.12	46%	5.11	4.46	14%
Sergio Mitre	6.62	4.22	44%	5.37	4.17	25%
Mike Wood	5.94	4.37	30%	4.46	4.78	-7%
Brian Fuentes	5.64	4.32	26%	2.91	3.84	-28%
Neal Cotts	5.65	4.39	25%	1.94	4.25	-75%

		2004			2005		
Name		ERA	iERA	% Dif	ERA	iERA	% Dif
Casey Fossum	6.65	4.61	36%	4.92	4.50	9%
Derek Lowe	5.42	4.19	26%	3.61	3.69	-2%
Joaquin Benoit	5.68	4.42	25%	3.72	4.74	-24%
Brett Myers	5.52	4.48	21%	3.72	3.75	-1%
Scott Kazmir	5.67	4.62	20%	3.77	4.60	-20%

All of these pitchers saw a decrease in ERA, some more drastic than others. Neal Cotts had a very high ERA and iERA difference in 2005, which will certainly revert in 2006. Brian Fuentes also showed a very big difference in ERA, but notice that it was also reflected in his 2005 iERA. Here's the last list of pitchers which showed a very large difference in ERA and iERA for 2005.

Name		ERA	iERA	Dif
Juan Padilla	1.49	4.74	-105%
Mariano Rivera	1.38	3.38	-84%
Chad Cordero	1.82	4.36	-82%
Huston Street	1.72	4.02	-80%
Cliff Politte	2.00	4.52	-77%

Name		ERA	iERA	Dif
Tim Redding	10.57	5.51	63%
Alan Embree	7.62	4.28	56%
Greg Aquino	7.76	4.39	56%
Ryan Wagner	6.11	3.60	52%
Paul Wilson	7.77	4.91	45%

I'd like to emphasize that just because there is a large discrepancy between a pitcher's ERA and iERA doesn't mean that pitcher still can't be very good or very bad the next season. It just means that there's a high probability that pitcher will have an ERA much closer to his iERA the following season. If you subscribe to the theories of BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB% (and even if you don't), I think you'll find iERA a useful tool as it essentially combines the three of them into one simple stat that you can compare with any player's actual ERA to get an idea of how “lucky” a player was in a single season.

Update: Just a quick addendum, I've been told that iERA is essentially a pre-existing stat called xFIP. I was aware of just FIP, but I wasn't so aware of xFIP. I think xFIP might be a little better (even though the two are VERY close). If you're interested in xFIP, I'll point you over to the article: I'm Batty for Baseball Stats over at the Hardball Times.

A few days ago, Dave Studeman of the Hardball Times wrote about the statistic LOB% (percent of baserunners left on base). While he stated LOB% isn't necessarily a “luck” statistic, I'm going to use it today as if it were one with some discretion, of course. I was thinking that for pitchers there are currently three statistics that are considered to be in some sense a measure of luck. There is batting average on balls in play (BABIP), percentage of fly balls that are home runs (HR/FB), and the already mentioned LOB%.

I wanted to find the “luckiest” pitcher in 2005, so I decided to combine the three “luck” statistics in a crude attempt to create a “Luck Factor” for pitchers. I used the formula (BABIP + (3 * (HR/FB)) + (1-LOB%)). While I'm sure there are a few problems with this formula that I quickly threw together, it will definitely point you in the direction of some of the biggest luck offenders. I couldn't help but laugh when, at the very top of the list, I saw Juan Padilla. Oh great, another Mets reliever! So without further adieu, let's see what made Juan Padilla so “lucky” in 2005.

Starting off with ERA, his first trip around the majors was pretty awful. In 2004 he had an insanely high ERA of 7.71, which plummeted to an incredibly low ERA of 1.49 in 2005. With such a steep decline, I'd expect some sort of drastic change in his strikeouts or walks. This was not the case.

In 2005 his strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) was slightly worse than it was in 2004. His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) was a poor 4.21 and his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) was a pretty average 3.22 bringing his K/BB to a poor 1.31. His minor league numbers definitely deviated from his major league numbers where he managed a pretty healthy K/9 of 8.22 the past two seasons in AAA.

Moving on to the part which made him the “luckiest” pitcher in all of baseball, he gave up zero home runs last season. I don't care who you are, things like that generally don't happen more than once. To go with his zero home runs, he had an extremely low BABIP of .219 and a pretty high LOB% of 81%. Combine all three of these and he had the best single season “Luck Factor” in the past four years! Pitchers with a K/9 under 7 that have displayed similar luck have seen, on average, a 2 point rise in ERA the following year. Here are those same pitchers that had an ERA under 2 and what their ERA did the following season.

Name		Year1	Year2	Dif
Buddy Groom 	1.60	5.36	3.76
Paul Quantrill 	1.75	4.72	2.97
S. Hasegawa 	1.48	5.16	3.68
Steve Kline 	1.79	4.28	2.49

While I'm not saying Juan Padilla won't improve his strikeouts or walks (mainly strikeouts) in the major leagues and become a quality pitcher at some point, I think there is little to no chance he'll do nearly as well as he did last year. If there's no improvement in his strikeout rate, I'm pretty sure you'll see a pitcher next season that none will be too thrilled with.

With all talk of the Yankees signing Johnny Damon, it seems like the Cubs signing Jacque Jones to a three year, $16 million contract got lost in the news. Jones is currently a career .280 hitter, and even managed to bat .300 in 2002-2003, but since then has batted just around .250. Despite the recent drop in batting average, he's continued to show good power, hitting 24 and 23 home runs the past two seasons. Let's see what's in store for Jones next season in his new home, Wrigley Field.

If you take a look at his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K), you'll see it looks like he reached a career high of .43 in 2005. While this technically true, it's a bit misleading as 12 of his 51 walks were intentional. In reality, there's no upward trend here, and he has not improved his patience at the plate.

The main reason for his decrease in batting average has been a drop in his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) the past two seasons. Much of this may be fueled by a correlating decrease in the percentage of line drives he hits. In 2002-2003 he hit around 20% of his balls for line drives (near the league average), but in the past two seasons he's hit less than 15% of his balls for line drives. That's the fifth lowest line drive percentage in all of baseball over the past two seasons.

Despite the low percentage of line drives, his isolated power (ISO) has remained pretty decent. What's most interesting is that over the past four seasons he's hit between 18% and 23% of his fly balls for home runs (HR/FB). Last season, his HR/FB was 21.7% which puts him in the same category (in HR/FB only) as players such as David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, and Mark Teixeira; players typically thought of as power hitters. One of the main statistical differences between him and these players is that he's a ground ball hitter. An extremely high 58% of the balls he hits are ground balls, the 3rd highest in baseball.

Moving from Metrodome to Wrigley Field probably won't have too much of an impact on Jones, but he should be in a more productive lineup which certainly won't hurt. I think his batting average will recover slightly in 2005, yet considering his walk to strikeout ratio and his line drive percentage, it seems highly unlikely he'll return to his .300 levels. He does appear to have some untapped power, but as long as he continues to hit a high percentage of ground balls, I'd expect him to continue hitting around 20 home runs a season.

In what was a surprise move to me, the Rangers sent Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Terrmel Sledge to the Padres for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, and a minor leaguer. In Chris Young's first full season in the majors he posted a 12-7 record with a 4.26 ERA and a good strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) of 3.06. Not too shabby considering he played in one of most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Now that he'll be moving to the pitcher's haven, PETCO Park, what should we expect from Chris Young in his second full year in the majors?

Looking at his ERA, he was really on quite the roller coaster ride. Early in the year he was looking like an AL Rookie of the Year candidate as he started off going 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA. In June and July things got a little hairy as his ERA rose to an awful 6.19. Then he had a strong final two months of the season, going 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA. Most of the increase in ERA towards the middle of the season can be explained by a brief period of time when he experienced a “tired arm”. This “tired arm” period becomes evident by looking at the major spike in his home runs per 9 innings (HR/9).

In just over a one month period he allowed 12 of his 19 home runs for the season, bringing his HR/9 to a horrible 2.65. Despite this one month period, his home runs per fly ball (HR/FB) remained extremely low for the year as only 7.7% of his fly balls became home runs. If you take away that one month home run derby, then only 4% of his fly balls became home runs. That's pretty amazing considering on average in Ameriquest Field, righthanded pitchers's fly balls became home runs nearly 14% of the time. He's lucky he kept his HR/9 below the league average since he has the 3rd highest fly ball percentage in baseball.

Despite Chirs Young's good strikeout to walk ratio, if he were to continue playing at Ameriquest Field, I'd say he'd have a similar 2005 season as it would be hard for him to continue to limit his home runs considering his fly ball tendencies. This however is not the case as he'll now be playing in a park where an extreme fly ball pitcher should thrive. One thing to note is he won't get the same kind of run support playing for the Padres as he did for the Rangers. In 2005 he had the 3rd most run support per inning of any pitcher in baseball. If he can remain healthy, I'd expect Chris Young to definitely improve upon his 2005 ERA, but he may find wins harder to come by.

A.J. Pierzynski will remain with the White Sox after agreeing on a 3 Year, $15 million dollar contract. Last year, he was 6th in home runs among all catchers, and only 4 home runs away from the leader, Jason Varitek. Despite the career high in home runs, his batting average dropped to a career low of .257. Up until two years ago he was a career .300 batter, but things have slipped the past couple years. Let's see if his current power will continue, and if his batting average will remain in the dumpster.

Oddly enough, his walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) has been a bit on a rise, but what's going on against lefthanded pitchers? His BB/K against lefties really has been zero the past two years. In the past four years he's only had 3 walks against lefties in 433 plate appearances. This pretty much gives him the honor of being the least disciplined batter against lefties in all of baseball over the past four years. His league worst on base percentage of .258 isn't even a good batting average. Lefties aside, his overall rise in BB/K doesn't explain why his batting average has tanked the past two years, but his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) does.

The year his BABIP dropped was the year he left the Twins. There's nothing in his home/away splits to suggest he played better at the Metrodome, so we can rule out a change in scenery. He did however experience a drop in line drive percentage and an increase in fly balls in 2004. From 2002-2003 he hit a very high 25% of his balls for line drives. Then in 2004-2005 he hit only 20% of his balls for line drive, while he showed an increase in his fly balls by about 5%. Chances are in 2005, while playing at U.S. Cellular Field, a few of those extra fly balls became home runs.

It looks like A.J. Pierzynski has sacrificed his average for power. Playing the next three seasons for the White Sox is only good news for his power numbers. His batting average on the other hand doesn't look like it's going to recover without a loss in power unless he can improve his plate discipline, especially against lefties. I'd suggest the White Sox sit him against lefties, but their backup catcher Chris Widger isn't any better, that is unless prospect Chris Stewart becomes a viable option.

I was having a lot of trouble finding someone to write about today, that was until I stumbled upon Heath Bell. Who is Heath Bell you ask? He was drafted in the 69th round of the 1997 draft by the Devil Rays, and then a year later was signed by the Mets as a free agent. Last year, still with the Mets, he pitched 46 innings with a not so wonderful ERA of 5.59 and was eventually sent back down to AAA. Let's take a look at why he intrigued me so much.

First of all, he's a strikeout pitcher. His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) while in the majors sits at a very strong 8.87. As you can see, he's been pretty dominant at every level of play at one time or another. So if he's striking out this many people, with an ERA that high, he must walk a lot of batters, right?

Actually, no. His walks per 9 innings (BB/9) is well below the league average. In fact, he's never had a problem walking batters. These are not the statistics of a pitcher with an ERA over 5. Most of his ERA is to blame on an extremely high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Nearly 38% of the balls he hit into play became hits, which was poor enough to give him the 9th worst BABIP of any pitcher in baseball. It was so bad, that even his low number of home runs allowed couldn't save his ERA.

I'd be somewhat shocked if Heath Bell wasn't back in the majors next year and much improved. As far as his strikeouts, walks, and home runs go, he's better than a lot of team's current closers. He might be a bit hittable at times, but there is no way his BABIP will be as high as it was in 2005 again. It's also worth mentioning he's very much a ground ball pitcher which only adds to his appeal. Don't be surprised if he becomes an important piece of the Mets bullpen next season.

Everywhere I turn, someone seems to be enamored by Orioles pitcher Daniel Cabrera. And why shouldn't they be? He had the 4th highest strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) of any starting pitcher in 2005 and he's an extreme ground ball pitcher. Oh, and I forgot to mention he's only 24 years old. The only knock against him is his shoddy control. If he were to lower the number of walks he allows, it appears he'd be ready to join the upper echelon of starting pitchers. Before I get ahead of myself and make him out to be a perennial Cy Young contender, let's take a closer look and see if there's anything troublesome that we should be aware of.

If you're just looking at his major league statistics, you'll note that there's a huge jump in his K/9 from his first year to his second year. This made me somewhat skeptical at first, but by adding his minor league stats to his K/9 graph above, I was put at ease. As you can see, he went straight from AA (K/9 of 11.5) to the majors (K/9 of 4.6). It looks like it just took him some time to adjust to the major leagues since he clearly had the ability to dominate batters at the lower levels. With his strikeouts no longer in doubt, let's move on to his real problem, walks.

The real question here is, how much can he improve on his fairly awful walks per 9 innings (BB/9) of 4.9? The lowest he has ever managed to get his BB/9 in his professional career was 3.7 in 2002 while he was still in rookie ball. Then two years later he did nearly as well in AA with a BB/9 of 3.9. I wouldn't consider either of those years good by any means. Sure he showed a slight improvement from 2004 to 2005, but there's little here to suggest that there will be significant improvement next season.

If Daniel Cabrera can continue to strike out batters at his current rate, one of these years he's going to have his breakout season. I have serious doubts that next year will be that year, but it'll be worth keeping a very close eye on his walks next season. Perhaps Leo Mazzone will once again work his magic on a young pitcher and accelerate Daniel Cabrera's progression. Any real downward trend in his walk rate should be a sign of big things to come.

Pending commissioner approval, the White Sox will send Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez to the Diamondbacks along with Luis Vizcaino, and minor league outfielder Chris Young in exchange for Javier Vazquez and cash. A few weeks ago, I wrote about how Javier Vazquez was back on track to being a dominant pitcher and the only thing stopping him was his home run problem. Let's just say his new home, U.S. Cellular Field, isn't going to help him get his home runs under control.

Orlando Hernandez on the other hand is coming of yet another injury plagued season. After missing the entire 2003 season with a torn rotator cuff, he had an excellent return in mid 2004 by going 8-2 with a 3.29 ERA. However, his 2005 season was an entirely different story where he went 9-9 with a 5.12 ERA, the worst of his career. Let's see if there are any signs that point to him improving in 2006.

His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) were down to a career low 6.4. While that's not an awful K/9 by any means, the decline is somewhat worrisome. The good news is he showed significant improvement starting in mid August. In his last 8 appearances he had a K/9 of 8.2 in 33 innings of work. He also experienced a similar end of season decrease in his walks per 9 innings (BB/9). Over those same 8 outings he had a BB/9 of 2.6 opposed to 3.9 over his previous 16 outings.

Unfortunately, neither his improvement in strikeouts or walks was reflected in his ERA because he allowed a whopping 9 home runs in those final 8 appearances. That made for a ridiculously high home run to fly ball percentage of 19%.

I seriously doubt Orlando Hernandez will do as poorly next year as he did in 2005. His improved strikeouts and walks at the end of the season suggest he still has what it takes to be a successful pitcher, but at age 36 you have to wonder how much gas he has left in the tank. If he's unable to stay healthy as a starter, the Diamondbacks might consider moving him to the bullpen where he'd have a lessened workload. He has the credentials to make an excellent setup man, or he could serve as a closer if needed.

Did Vicente Padilla being traded to the Rangers yesterday go under the radar or what? I didn't find out about it until I opened up a Washington Post during lunch, and it's not like I have my head under a rock or anything. Anyway, the one time All-Star will be pitching at Arlington Field which believe it or not, is a better place for a right-handed pitcher than Citizens Bank Park. After having two nice season in 2002 and 2003, he's been plagued by various elbow injuries that have limited him to 262 innings with a 4.63 ERA the past two seasons. What are the chances he returns to his 2002-2003 form?

Oddly enough, his strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) were slightly up the past two years despite his injuries. His K/9 of 6.3 is just above the league average of 6.0 for starting pitchers. Unfortunately, his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) were up as well. Up by a lot.

Hopefully the huge spike in his BB/9 was injury related or just an incredibly off year. Chances are it was a combination of the two. The same thing can probably be said about his home run rate (HR/9) which also showed a considerable increase. He had 14.9% of his fly balls leave the park in 2005. With the league average being around 11%, that number is likely to improve next year.

Vicente Padilla's 2005 seems like it was a very off season mostly due to his nagging injuries. His K/9 is solid, so his success will hinge on him getting his walks and home runs down to where they were prior to 2004. While Arlington Field may be more pitcher friendly than Citizens Bank Park, it's not that much friendlier and a switch over the American League means he'll have to deal with facing a DH. I think he'll defintily rebound in 2006, but he has his work cut out for him.