With one out in the top of the third, and a 2-2 count, Felipe Lopez made a futile effort to hit a filthy, down and in John Smoltz slider. With the whiff, Smoltz earned a lifetime membership to the 3,000 Strikeout Club, a group that previously consisted of just fifteen pitchers. Making this feat even more remarkable are the facts that Smoltz missed a little over a year due to Tommy John surgery and, upon returning, found himself closing games for 3+ seasons. He became the fifth pitcher this decade to join the club, joining Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, and Pedro Martinez.

Smoltz gave a phone interview to Baseball Tonight following the game in which he admitted to downplaying the milestone as much as he could until the reaction of the Atlanta crowd proved too much to simply brush aside. Later on the show, Kruk and Showalter answered e-mail responses to the posed question: What active pitcher has the best shot at 3,000 strikeouts? Kruk went with CC Sabathia and Showalter went with Johan Santana. Some of the e-mails suggested the likes of Carlos Zambrano, Felix Hernandez and Cole Hamels. This got me thinking: Which current pitchers really do have solid shots at joining Smoltz and the others in this illustrious group?

In order to help answer that question I called upon Bill James’s Career Assessments formula; this used to be known as his “Favorite Toy.” ESPN set up a page on which you can type in numbers corresponding to the appropriate fields and generate the current total a given player will amass based on the projected length of his career, as well as the probability said player reaches a specific target. For instance, I used Sabathia, who is currently 27 years old with 1142 career strikeouts entering this season. Plugging those numbers in as well as his strikeout totals for the last three seasons, the system projects Sabathia to pitch 7.5 more seasons averaging 188.5 strikeouts per year. This would give him 2,557 strikeouts for his career with a 26.2% chance at reaching 3,000.

I repeated this for every pitcher that currently has at least 900 strikeouts and was born during or after 1975. Pitchers like Mike Mussina and Jamie Moyer have upwards of 2,600 strikeouts but they are not likely to pitch much more after this season and do not quite rack up the K’s anyway. It is also difficult to plug King Felix and Hamels in because parts of their prior years are not likely indicative of what is to come. Of the 22 pitchers assessed only eight actually had a chance at 3,000; everyone else came out as having a 0.0% chance. Here are the eight, with their projected career total and chance at 3,000:

• Johan Santana: 2961, 47.6%
• Javier Vazquez: 2941, 44.9%
• Jake Peavy: 2827, 40.8%
• CC Sabathia: 2557, 26.2%
• Carlos Zambrano: 2510, 24.6%
• Josh Beckett: 2216, 11.3%
• Roy Oswalt: 2170, 4.0%
• Chris Carpenter: 2106, 1.3%

Of course things can change, and this system is not completely perfect, but it does shed light on just how hard it is to strike 3,000+ batters out. For fun, I plugged Felix Hernandez in and he came out with a projected total of 2,066 K with a 13.4% chance. After adjusting his 2005 season to be closer to what he may have gotten in 30+ starts, though, he comes out with 2286 and a 21.1% chance. Another interesting case is Aaron Harang, who has seemingly learned how to strike out guys as of late; Harang currently projects to 2210 with a 13.1% chance.

If you had to pick just one pitcher, in the above list or not, who would it be?

After comparing Jeff Keppinger to Tony Gwynn this morning, I figure I should write something that everyone can agree with for the afternoon post. So, here’s a non-newsflash; the Arizona Diamondbacks are good.

Anyone following baseball right now has probably come to that conclusion. They are second in baseball in offensive production at 6.25 runs per game and second in run prevention, allowing only 3.55 runs per game. When you score a lot and don’t give up many runs, you win. It’s a pretty good combination. Most of the platitudes so far have gone to offensive heroes Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson, along with the duel aces of Dan Haren and Brandon Webb. All four are off to terrific starts to their 2008 seasons and are among the main reasons the team is performing so well.

However, I’d like to suggest that there’s another reason Arizona is finding success, and one that won’t get as much mention – their work with the gloves, and particularly, their outfield defense. Eric Byrnes, Chris Young, and Justin Upton are all legitimate major league center fielders, and having three rangy athletes covering that much ground has made life quite easy on the pitching staff. It shouldn’t come as any surprise that the Diamondbacks are turning 73% of all balls in play against them into outs, which is the main reason the D’Backs are running a 2.98 ERA despite a FIP of 3.81 – the largest difference between FIP and ERA in baseball. In particular, The Hardball Times Revised Zone Rating believes that the D’Backs outfielders have been among the best in the league so far at making plays.

The D’Backs pitching is good, but it’s not solely responsible for the team’s run prevention. Let’s make sure that the trio of outfielders gets their fair share of credit. It’s been a while since we’ve seen an outfield defense that has the potential to be this good. Oh, and they can hit too.

The Toronto Blue Jays organization promoted 2006 first round draft pick (14th overall) Travis Snider from High-A ball to Double-A at the beginning of the week. Many experts considered Snider to be the best pure hitter in the draft but some organizations were a little concerned with his prep football physique (5-11, 230). Regardless, Snider has done nothing but hit in the pro ranks and had a career line of .316/.388/.538 coming into the 2008 season.

Interestingly, Toronto actually planned to start Snider off in Double-A to begin the year, but an elbow injury caused the organization to rethink its plan to skip High-A ball altogether. He did not even play in minor league spring training this March because of soreness. As a result, Snider started out in the Florida State League where the weather was more forgiving than in the Eastern League. After just 61 at-bats, though, and having spent every game at designated hitter, the 20-year-old was promoted to Double-A shortly after the Jays released future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas.

The Jays organization continues to insist Snider’s injury is minor enough that it won’t need surgery and he is expected to begin a throwing program shortly and then re-enter the outfield. But the organization is not known for its candor and we’ve all read a lot about Albert Pujols‘ elbow situation.

Snider struck out at an alarming pace this season while in High-A ball with a rate of 36.1 percent. In his previous two seasons, Snider struck out at a rate of 24.2 (Rookie ball in 2006) and 28.2 percent (A-ball in 2007). In his Double-A debut, Snider went 1-for-5 with three strikeouts. Just as his strikeout rates have risen, his walk rates have lowered with each promotion, from 13.4 to 9.7 to 7.6 percent.

One cannot help but wonder if Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi has a sense of urgency to prove his amateur draft track record. Ricciardi came to Toronto from Oakland in November 2001 with a strong reputation for player development but only one of his first round draft picks has had an impact to this point (second baseman Aaron Hill).

Toronto has also failed to make the playoffs or show considerable improvement since he took the organizational reigns. The organization has also been involved in three high profile player disputes in recent years, involving Ted Lilly, Shea Hillenbrand and Thomas.

As a result, it might be make-or-break time for Ricciardi. By showing ownership that help is on the way – help acquired under his watch – the general manager may be thinking he can buy himself some time. Let’s just hope that is not the case. I’d hate to think someone who should know better is putting a promising player’s career at risk by rushing him through the system.

Editor’s Note: I just wanted to give a warm welcome to Marc Hulet. He’ll be covering the minor leagues and prospects for FanGraphs, and I think you’ll find his writing both informative and insightful. Marc writes a weekly column at Baseball Analysts and is a contributor to both battersbox.ca and bluejayway.ca. Marc, please let me know if I’ve missed anything!

In his inaugural post here Dave Cameron wrote about Gabe Kapler’s return to the major leagues and how his production had more than made up for slow starts from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Last night, Kapler again came through as his 12th inning heroics propelled the Brewers to a walk-off victory against the Cardinals. With one out and the score tied at eight, Gabe Gross walked and promptly stole second off of Jason Isringhausen. Kapler lined a single to centerfield allowing Gross to race home with the winning run. Thrilled with Gross’s efforts to get into scoring position the Brewers quickly traded him to the Rays following the game. “Some day,” Gross remarked.

In a game where both managers utilize the pitcher batting eighth strategy, convention goes by the wayside before the first pitch is even thrown; however, this game had a number of odd occurrences. For starters, Albert Pujols made his first-ever major league appearance at second base when Cesar Izturis left the game. Apparently, Pujols lobbied Tony LaRussa to let him play shortstop but had to settle for second base. He made two plays in the field: a forceout at second as well as catching the throw on Gross’s stolen base in the 12th.

As mentioned in the opening, two guys named Gabe won the game for the Brewers. This brought Gabe White to his feet.

A few days ago I wrote about Brian Shouse and his success in stranding runners. Well, Shouse entered the seventh inning last night with the bases loaded and allowed all three inherited runners to score as well as a run of his own. Thanks, Brian. Combine that with Corey Patterson’s results following Dave’s article and we might be in the midst of a Fangraphs Jinx.

Eric Gagne blew his fourth save in ten chances. This might not seem too odd to many people, though. This particular blown save could have been avoided if Rickie Weeks makes a better throw or Prince Fielder scoops up a ball in the dirt to complete a tailor-made double play.

Three starting pitchers pinch hit in this game: Adam Wainwright hit a sac fly, Braden Looper laid down a nice sac bunt, and Jeff Suppan popped up a bunt attempt. Additionally, reliever David Riske batted for himself, fouling out to the catcher with a runner on second in the sixth inning.

Seth McClung recorded the win after pitching in the 12th inning. The win is his first since September 20, 2006, when he was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. To see how topsy-turvy this game was check out the game graph:

The sixth and seventh innings are fun to look at in the graph; after the Brewers scored four runs in the bottom of the sixth the Cardinals responded with four of their own in the top of the seventh. In terms of WPA, Guillermo Mota and Kapler led the Brewers while Skip Schumaker and Ryan Franklin contributed the most to the Cardinals. Rick Ankiel and Isringhausen each finished at -.358.

From here, the Cardinals head to Pittsburgh to face Ian Snell while the Brewers host Cole Hamels and the Phillies. Based on the last two games for the Phillies and last night’s Brewers affair this has the makings for one wild series.

I know, this is something of a cliche subject. There’s always a good player who never seems to get a lot of national press, and then everyone starts writing about how good he is, and pretty soon, everyone agrees that Mr. Underrated is so awesome that he becomes overrated. Bobby Abreu has to be the poster boy for this syndrome. But, that doesn’t change the fact that there are some valuable players who just don’t get any notice at all. More than anyone else, though, there’s one guy who is quietly having a terrific start to 2008 after a sensational 2007 and I can’t remember reading five words about him.

So, Jeff Keppinger, here are your five words (and then some). Did you realize that last year, Keppinger hit .332/.400/.477 while spending most of his time at shortstop (but also playing every other position on the diamond besides C and CF). The only SS with a higher OPS in 2007 was Hanley Ramirez. NL MVP Jimmy Rollins was just a tick behind Keppinger at .875. Yes, it was only 276 plate appearances, but he’s followed it up with a .325/.368/.488 line in his first 88 PA of 2008, and the sample is getting bigger every day. Pretty soon, people are going to have to conclude that Jeff Keppinger is a pretty good little hitter. In fact, using the awesomely addictive comparison charts available here on fangraphs, here’s Keppinger’s basic skill set matched up against someone with a slightly better reputation.

I fully expect to get tarred and feathered for comparing Jeff Keppinger to Tony Gwynn, and please don’t read this as an endorsement of Keppinger as a future hall of famer. I’m just showing you a guy who had a very similar set of skills – extreme contact hitter, gap power, not fast, but sustained value through repeatedly hitting the ball on the ground and having it find holes. Keppinger’s one of the hardest guys on the planet to strike out, and since he makes such a large volume of contact without sacrificing his power, he’s able to get a lot of singles and keep his batting average north of .300. Kinda like Tony Gwynn. Toss in the occasional extra base hit and some walks, and Keppinger becomes one of the better offensive middle infielders in baseball.

With Alex Gonzalez still injured and Juan Castro released, it looks like Keppinger is going to be given a chance to handle shortstop full time for the Reds. That’s a stretch for him defensively, and he’s probably better off at second base, but his combination of offense and defense up the middle makes him a real asset at either spot. If he can maintain even 90% of his current performance level, he’s a borderline all-star. Not bad for a guy who has been traded three times and been thought of as a utility player at best.

Good news! We have 1974 play-by-play data with all usual goodies including all 1,945 game graphs and the leaderboards.

And I bet you thought that 22 inning game was long:

On April 17th, John Smoltz and the Braves shut out the Marlins by a score of 8-0. Still being closely monitored Smoltz lasted just five innings. These five innings were all the Braves needed from Smoltz, though, as he twirled a tremendous game; he did not give up any runs and struck out ten en route to his third win. On Baseball Tonight, Tim Kurkjian mentioned that this was the first time in over 100 years that a pitcher recorded a win while going for the exact line of 5 IP, 0 ER, and 10 K.

Though Retrosheet and the B-R Play Index do not have the game-by-game data capable of checking this assertion it is definitely true that Smoltz is the only pitcher to record this line since 1956. With that in mind I thought it would be fun to look at some more obscure pitching lines. To qualify as obscure there could be no more than three owners of the pitching line in question.

WINS

• 5 IP, 8 ER, 0 K: Andy Pettitte, 9/29/07 at BAL
• 5 IP, 8 H, 6 BB: Dan Reichert, 7/31/99 at TEX
• 6 IP, 4 HR, 5 K: Jeremy Bonderman, 6/15/07 at PHI, Jim Brower, 9/24/99 at TOR, Mike Mussina, 5/19/96 vs SEA
• 9 IP, 8 BB, 12 K: Nolan Ryan, 5/19/77 vs MIN AND 5/19/74 at MIN

That is not a typo: Nolan Ryan, in the span of four years and against the same team, posted the same obscure line.

LOSSES

• 9 IP, 0 BB, 12 K: Roger Clemens, 6/16/97 vs ATL
• 10 IP, 1 ER, 5 H: Jerry Robertson, 8/21/69 vs SD, Don Sutton, 6/10/68 vs NYM, Catfish Hunter, 9/18/67 vs MIN
• 6 IP, 8 K, 2 pickoffs: Pat Zachry, 6/26/76 at HOU

Only three pitchers since 1956 have recorded the 10 IP, 1 ER, 5 H line and all three came in consecutive years between 1967 and 1969.

These are just some examples of interesting and obscure pitching lines. If anybody else has some good ones post them in the comments. We can have a contest to help discover the most obscure pitching line.

On April 14th, I wrote the following in a piece entitled “Busting Out: Corey Patterson”:

Patterson’s early season performance isn’t going to be sustained at this level (a 7% swinging strike rate is impossible to keep up), but there are legitimate reasons to believe that he’s adopted a new approach at the plate, and his continued contact ability could be just the ticket to stardom that people have been projecting on Patterson for most of this decade.

Since those words were written, Corey Patterson is pulling an o-fer. Eight days and 21 plate appearances later, and my fearless call that Patterson might be on the verge of a breakout year looks pretty foolish – he’s now hitting .183 and appears to be losing his grip on the Reds center field job. It’s hard to have a career year while sitting on the bench.

But, at the risk of cramming my foot even further into my mouth, I’m actually even more convinced than ever that Patterson has made significant strides in improving as a player. Despite his 0 for 18 run since the post went up, he’s walked three times while only striking out twice, and his season long K% still sits at a remarkably low 6.7%. That doesn’t happen by accident. If we take the 19% true talent strikeout rate that pretty much every projection system on earth forecasted for Patterson in 2008, the odds of him striking out four times or less in his first 68 trips to the plate was a whopping .0019%. That’s 1 in 500, basically.

Given his current strikeout rate in 2008, it’s remarkably unlikely that Patterson’s true talent strikeout rate is currently 19%. Given that we need to adjust our expectations of how often he’s going to make contact, and that it hasn’t affected his power output, I’m sticking with the theory that increased contact + sustained power = improvement. Call me crazy, but I still think we could look back at year’s end and say that Patterson had the breakout year we’ve been waiting for. Even if it got off to a bit of a rough start.

In a mock fantasy draft a few weeks prior to the season I drafted Nate McLouth of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 23rd round. Numerous competitors laughed at the selection and, honestly, it was made with little conviction from my end. I needed to fill my outfielder quota and his numbers from a year ago made him look better than, say, Dave Roberts. Judging by the reactions upon making my selection it is safe to say that next to nobody thought McLouth would be the answer to the question: Who is the only player in the major leagues to have a hit in all of his team’s games?

Some might answer Hanley Ramirez, a statistical wunderkind quickly developing into a super-duper-star. Or, perhaps, Chipper Jones, who currently boasts a .453 batting average. Maybe even Chase Utley, who has an impressive home run streak, let alone a hitting streak. But Nate McLouth? Really? A guy who admitted in an FSN interview prior to the season opener that he was told he had very little job security coming into spring training?

Coming into tonight’s game against the Marlins, McLouth is riding the waves of a 19-game hitting streak. His slash line currently rests at .375/.444/.639, resulting in an OPS of 1.082 and an OPS+ of 184. After creating 91 runs in 243 games (0.37/gm), over the last two seasons, he has already created 23 (1.21/gm). His streak is the longest to open a season since 2006, when Edgar Renteria opened with a 23-gamer. Renteria’s streak came to an end against a Marlins combination of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Randy Messenger.

As chance would have it, not only does McLouth face the pesky fish tonight, but he faces Ricky Nolasco! Ah, baseball.

How has McLouth, a guy with a pre-2008 slash line of .249/.319/.429, been so stellar? A quick look at a few graphs will help illustrate this answer:

McLouth has drastically cut down on his strikeouts, from 23.4% in 2007 to just 12.5% this year. His BABIP has gone from .274, .275, and .301 in prior seasons all the way up to .403 at this juncture. The final graph, detailing his groundball, flyball, and line drive rates, shows that McLouth has increased his frequency of putting the ball on the ground while decreasing his percentage of balls in the air.

It is not very likely that he, even with his speed, will maintain anything in the vicinity of a .403 BABIP all season but his performance thus far has been nothing short of remarkable.

During the last few days, I’ve been asked the “Is Frank Thomas done?” question several times, as Mariner fans wonder if he is the right fit to take Jose Vidro’s spot at DH. During these conversations, I’ve mentioned that the main indicator of whether a player has really fallen off The Cliff is his power level. If he has lost his ability to drive the ball, then yes, he’s probably done. Mariners fans have seen a lot of players fall of The Cliff (Bret Boone, Edgar Martinez, John Olerud, and Carl Everett to name a few), and in all of their collapses, you can see that their Isolated Slugging % and Home Run Per Fly Ball % take precipitous nosedives. If a player is actually finished as a major league hitter, those two numbers are the first place to look.

With regards to Thomas, that is part of why my conclusion is that he still has more to contribute as a major league hitter. However, the situation got me thinking – is there a major league hitter right now that is a current example of a player just falling off a cliff? I think there is. Take a look at these graphs.

The first graph shows a huge decline in power – you can see a line almost straight down from the ’06 season to now. What used to be well above average power has deteriorated to an ISO of below .100. The second chart shows that the batting average on balls in play is actually not that different than the career average. In other words, it doesn’t appear that this hitter is hitting the ball hard and just having it find a fielders glove. We can’t build much regression to the mean back into his batting average, which means that since he’s not hitting for power, if he’s also not hitting for average, he’s probably done.

Who is this guy who is currently plunging off The Cilff? Mets fans could probably already guess, but it’s Carlos Delgado. Once a powerful slugger, injuries and age have caught up with him, and he just doesn’t look to be much of a productive major league player anymore.