BrewCrew Win an Odd One

In his inaugural post here Dave Cameron wrote about Gabe Kapler’s return to the major leagues and how his production had more than made up for slow starts from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Last night, Kapler again came through as his 12th inning heroics propelled the Brewers to a walk-off victory against the Cardinals. With one out and the score tied at eight, Gabe Gross walked and promptly stole second off of Jason Isringhausen. Kapler lined a single to centerfield allowing Gross to race home with the winning run. Thrilled with Gross’s efforts to get into scoring position the Brewers quickly traded him to the Rays following the game. “Some day,” Gross remarked.

In a game where both managers utilize the pitcher batting eighth strategy, convention goes by the wayside before the first pitch is even thrown; however, this game had a number of odd occurrences. For starters, Albert Pujols made his first-ever major league appearance at second base when Cesar Izturis left the game. Apparently, Pujols lobbied Tony LaRussa to let him play shortstop but had to settle for second base. He made two plays in the field: a forceout at second as well as catching the throw on Gross’s stolen base in the 12th.

As mentioned in the opening, two guys named Gabe won the game for the Brewers. This brought Gabe White to his feet.

A few days ago I wrote about Brian Shouse and his success in stranding runners. Well, Shouse entered the seventh inning last night with the bases loaded and allowed all three inherited runners to score as well as a run of his own. Thanks, Brian. Combine that with Corey Patterson’s results following Dave’s article and we might be in the midst of a Fangraphs Jinx.

Eric Gagne blew his fourth save in ten chances. This might not seem too odd to many people, though. This particular blown save could have been avoided if Rickie Weeks makes a better throw or Prince Fielder scoops up a ball in the dirt to complete a tailor-made double play.

Three starting pitchers pinch hit in this game: Adam Wainwright hit a sac fly, Braden Looper laid down a nice sac bunt, and Jeff Suppan popped up a bunt attempt. Additionally, reliever David Riske batted for himself, fouling out to the catcher with a runner on second in the sixth inning.

Seth McClung recorded the win after pitching in the 12th inning. The win is his first since September 20, 2006, when he was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. To see how topsy-turvy this game was check out the game graph:

cardsbrewers.png

The sixth and seventh innings are fun to look at in the graph; after the Brewers scored four runs in the bottom of the sixth the Cardinals responded with four of their own in the top of the seventh. In terms of WPA, Guillermo Mota and Kapler led the Brewers while Skip Schumaker and Ryan Franklin contributed the most to the Cardinals. Rick Ankiel and Isringhausen each finished at -.358.

From here, the Cardinals head to Pittsburgh to face Ian Snell while the Brewers host Cole Hamels and the Phillies. Based on the last two games for the Phillies and last night’s Brewers affair this has the makings for one wild series.





Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.

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Tom Au
15 years ago

Going into last night, Brian Shouse had a sabermetric ERA of 5.86 (based on 1 HR, 3 BB, and 1K in 7.0 innings), more than twice his actual one of 2.57. He also had an unusually low (and unsustainable) BABIP of .167, at least for someone who hasn’t been a high strikeout pitcher (K/9 < 3) so far in 2008.

Coming out of last night, his actual ERA had regressed to 3.52, closer to, but still below his new sabermetric ERA of 5.35 (lower because of 0 walks, 1K, and 2/3 innings pitched). His BABIP meanwhile, had risen to .250, a more normal, but still below average, level, which takes into account the hits he gave up on one bad night.

Put another way, Shouse had been unusually lucky on the field relative to his sabermetrics. He (and Eric) was a bit unlucky that his “streak” of stranding runners came apart in such a big way last night. In the long (and not so long) run, however, it had to come apart because it was a statistically improbable event to begin with.