While Tampa’s breakthrough year has seen the rise of new stars and production from veteran role players, no player is more associated with the franchise than Scott Kazmir. He’s the all-star lefty who leads a rotation that is carrying the Rays to the playoffs, the franchise talent with a golden arm.

While Kazmir is having a successful season (3.58 FIP, 1.34 WPA/LI) that’s pretty much in line with previous results, 2008 Kazmir is quite a bit different than the one’s from previous seasons. Up until this year, he was basically league average at inducing groundballs, running a 43.1% GB% last year. This year, he’s at 30%, one of the lowest figures in the league. That doesn’t happen on accident – he’s pitching differently.

Thanks to the pitch type statistics here on FanGraphs, we can see that Kazmir has changed his arsenal quite a bit this year. Check out his pitch mix percentages:

Fastball %: 2006 – 56.2%, 2007 – 69.6%, 2008 – 76.6%
Slider %: 2006 – 28.6%, 2007 – 18.8%, 2008 – 9.0%

Two years ago, Kazmir was chucking sliders more than a quarter of the time, but now, not even one in ten pitches he throws is his potent breaking ball. Those missing sliders have all become fastballs, presumably as Kazmir tries to keep the stress off his elbow and stay healthy. Since his fastball is a four seam fastball that he locates up in the zone when going for strikeouts, the increased fastballs have led to an increase in fly balls – Kazmir is currently one of the most extreme flyball starters in the A.L.

This looks like a legitimate change in approach, and as long as he keeps relying heavily on his fastball, we shouldn’t expect his groundball percentage to revert to previous levels. Unless he learns how to throw the slider and stay healthy at the same time, this flyballing Kazmir is probably here to stay.

Nobody honestly expected the San Francisco Giants to compete for anything significant this year. Their prized offseason acquisition was Aaron Rowand, a guy coming off of a career year in a hitter’s park; they still owed Barry Zito mega-bucks; and the outlook beyond this year did not look too bright, either. They are a bad team, but what gets lost in the shuffle too often when discussing like-performing teams is that not all of the players are bad. The Giants, as a team, may struggle, but some of their individual parts are solid or all-star caliber.

One of these players, whom Giants fans seem to be sold on as a building block, is Fred Lewis. Now, no matter what this silly article at Baseball Evolution thinks, Fred is nowhere (and I mean nowhere!) near the level of Barry Bonds… but he still looks pretty good.

In 117 games this year he has put up a .285/.355/.454 slash line with 23 doubles, 10 triples, and 9 home runs. His speed and numbers remind me of Curtis Granderson, just without the home runs that would boost the three components of his slash line. Chances are, most fans have never heard of Lewis, and while he may not sustain his current performance—a .372 BABIP—his OPS is currently higher than both Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds, two guys with stronger reputations.

With regards to his .372 BABIP, I’m not saying Lewis cannot sustain a high number, but .372 is borderline ridiculous. It has been speculated (but never tested… hmm… maybe I’ll check that soon) that speedier players can/will post higher BABIPs because they will beat out grounders when others would not. Perhaps Lewis falls into this category, but my money would be put in the regression department in that metric’s cubby.

He does strike out his fair share of time but he has not been in the big leagues for very long and patience seems to be one of those virtues that grows with experience. His 27.1% strikeout rate is in the same vicinity as Adam Dunn and Dan Uggla, for those curious. He is also right around the halfway point in walk percentage, amongst qualifying senior circuit members.

All told, he has a 1.01 WPA/LI, and has been playing solid defense. Via the + – system, Lewis is a +8 leftfielder, which is tied for second in the big leagues. Carl Crawford, at +20, is far and away the leader. For those interested, Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday, and Garret Anderson are also +8 in leftfield this year. Dave pointed out that the Giants may be shipping Randy Winn out of town after this season, as he is a very attractive commodity from the perspective of other teams, but Fred Lewis looks like a very decent chip with which to build.

Is there a more under-appreciated player in baseball than Randy Winn? In his career, he’s been traded for a manager, then traded for Jesse Foppert, and now plays for a terrible Giants team where he’s regarded as a role player and wasn’t widely pursued by any of the teams looking for outfield help in July. Meanwhile, he just continues to perform at a level that makes him a borderline all-star and one of the game’s better outfielders.

Since 2002, when he finally got regular playing time with Tampa, he’s posted seasonal WPA/LI marks of 1.59, -0.35, 0.38, 2.44, -1.00, 1.08, and 1.21. There’s a bad year and a great year in there, but generally, he’s around one win better than a league average hitter. He hasn’t posted huge raw lines, but because he’s played for Seattle and San Francisco, he’s spent most of his time in low run scoring environments, making his .770 career OPS more valuable than with comparable players in more hitter friendly parks.

But with Winn, it’s not just about the offense. His glove is very, very good – The Fielding Bible +/- system has him as +14, +12, and +16 plays as a right fielder the last three years, and this is consistent with his career – he’s basically a center fielder playing a corner, and his performances bear that out. He’s consistently a full win better than other corner outfielders defensively, and when you add that to his offensive production, that makes him quite a valuable player.

If we give him +1 win above average for offense, +1 win above average for defense, and then -0.5 wins for the position adjustment, we still come out with Winn being something like 1.5 wins above an average NL player. Due to the league disparity, where the NL is still clearly inferior, we could knock off another half a win and say that Winn is +1 win above an average major leaguer, or about +3 wins above a replacement level outfielder.

You could pretty easily make a case that Randy Winn is in the same class of players as guys like Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, or Adam Dunn in terms of value to a team. Meanwhile, those three will be seeking big paydays this winter, while Winn is owed just $8.25 million for 2009 before his contract expires.

If your a major league team looking for an outfielder this winter, calling the Giants about Randy Winn should be your very first move. He’s an absolute bargain, and one of the most valuable, least appreciated players in the game.

Jordan Schafer’s prospect status took a hit at the beginning of the season when the promising outfielder was suspended 50 games for the use of HGH. The issue could not have come at a worse time from a career standpoint, as Schafer had recently been named the top prospect in the Atlanta Braves system, according to Baseball America. That honor was due to a breakout 2007 in which he hit .312/.374/.513 in 565 at-bats split between High-A and Double-A ball.

Currently at Double-A, Schafer has yet to reach those lofty numbers but he is holding his own considering the amount of development time he lost in April and May. Upon his return in June, the left-handed outfielder hit .274 with seven doubles and three homers in 95 at-bats. Schafer stumbled in July, though, and managed to hit just .228.

He has picked himself back up in August and currently has a .348 average with five homers in 66 at-bats. Overall, he is hitting .269/.369/.466 with nine homers in 264 at-bats. He has also walked 41 times and struck out 79 times. The biggest flaw in the youngster’s game at this point is his work against southpaws, as he is hitting just .198/.314/.297 with seven extra base hits against them in 101 at-bats.

Regardless, Schafer is just 21 years old and turns 22 in September, which gives him lots of time to improve upon his weaknesses and climb back to the top of Atlanta’s system.

Remember at the beginning of the season when, for whatever reason, some ESPN analysts seemed programmed to think that the Detroit Tigers were seriously capable of scoring 1,000 runs this year? Of course, it was a euphemism for how potent their offense might be rather than a serious prediction (I hope). Curtis Granderson was expected to leadoff for this offense and help propel them into a landslide division victory in the AL Central.

Well, the Tigers aren’t scoring or on pace to score 6.17 r/g—what it would take to score 1,000+ runs—and Granderson’s early season absence is generally attributed as a major cause. It’s kind of odd to say that the team vastly underperformed because of him; after all, in 2006, he was a contender for the Oddibe Award (the award I give out to the player with the most average slash line). Sure, he had a great year in 2007 but to say a team “expected” to win at an alarming rate isn’t doing so because of one player means that his replacement would have to have been monumentally awful so as to make up for the difference.

Since his return he has essentially picked up where he left off. He wasn’t going to OPS .920+ realistically as it took one of those 20-20-20-20 seasons to get a .913, but that does not mean he couldn’t be a very productive player. In 105 games, he is hitting .302/.374/.502, an .876 OPS. 44 of his hits are of the extra-base variety, consisting of 20 doubles, 9 triples, and 15 home runs. With only a month and a half left, needing both 11 steals and 11 triples, it isn’t likely he can repeat the 2007 magic, but given the time he missed his stat-line is still very impressive.

His OBP was thirteen points lower last year, at .361, but his SLG was up fifty points at .552. He doesn’t seem like a power-hitter because triples aren’t necessarily held to the same power esteem as home runs or doubles; triples are thought of more as hits based on speed. Despite his slugging percentage is much lower than last year, it is still the same or in the same vicinity as Vladimir Guerrero, Jason Giambi, Nate McLouth, and Aramis Ramirez.

He has contributed 1.72 wins in a context-neutral environment, and 1.44 based on shifts in run expectancy. For the sake of context, Vladimir Guerrero is one full WPA/LI win below Grandy. He may have missed time early in the season and his absence may have hurt the Tigers get off to the start they desired, but any struggles since his return can hardly be attributed to his performance.

Over at the Inside the Book: Blog a week or two ago, TangoTiger discussed a method in which a pitcher’s “effective win-loss record” could be calculated using primarily the +WPA and -WPA components found here at Fangraphs. For all of the gory details, click here. For more of a calculation summation, this modified record can be produced by doing the following:

1) Double the +WPA and -WPA, otherwise known as Win Advancement and Loss Advancement
2) Regardless of the + or -, add the WA and LA (if a pitcher has a +8.50 +WPA and -6.50 -WPA, he would have 17 WA and 13 LA)
3) This new number gives us the GA, Game Advancements
4) Multiply the GA by .308
5) Subtract the product from #4 from the WA and LA to get the ‘Effective W-L’

With the exporting feature on the leaderboards I was able to enter this into a spreadsheet to calculate the effective w-l record of all those who qualify. Via winning percentage, the top five pitchers in this category are:

1) Ryan Dempster, .823 (12.3-2.6)
2) Cliff Lee, .813 (14.1-3.2)
3) Tim Lincecum, .724 (13.2-5.0)
4) Justin Duchsherer, .705 (9.6-4.0)
5) CC Sabathia, .691 (14.0-6.3)

Ian Snell clocked in with the lowest winning percentage, a .328 spawned from his 5.8-12.0 effective record. To view the spreadsheet I used and see everyone’s winning percentage, click here.

Whether or not this metric will find itself ingrained in the general saberstream or not is yet to be determined but it definitely serves the purpose of leveling out a pitcher’s record. By adjusting it to be indicative of the positive and negative shifts in win expectancy we are really looking at how much a pitcher helped his team win or lose.

24 years ago, the Chicago Cubs acquired Rick Sutcliffe from the Indians during the summer to bolster their rotation – he made 20 starts, went 16-1, and won the N.L. Cy Young award. It’s generally considered the best midseason pitching acquisition in baseball history, but with CC Sabathia throwing another complete game last night for Milwaukee, it’s an issue worth revisiting.

Let’s take a look a deeper look at the three contenders for the crown:

1984 Sutcliffe: 150 1/3 IP, 3.97 K/BB, 0.54 HR/9, 2.28 FIP, 1.52 WPA/LI
1988 Randy Johnson: 84 1/3 IP, 4.46 K/BB, 0.43 HR/9, 2.04 FIP, 2.62 WPA/LI
2008 Sabathia: 73 IP, 4.60 K/9, 0.49 HR/9, 2.59 FIP, 2.06 WPA/LI

Sutcliffe gets the award for quantity, piling up the innings in his 20 starts as a Cub, but he can’t touch Randy Johnson’s remarkable dominance on a pitch-by-pitch basis. After the Astros picked him up, The Big Unit was absolutely unhittable, throwing four complete game shutouts in his eleven starts. His WPA/LI mark is absurd considering that it covers just 11 starts – Tim Lincecum has piled up a 2.62 WPA/LI in his 25 starts this season, and he’s one of the top contenders for the Cy Young award.

Based on the linear weights method that WPA/LI represents, it appears clear that Johnson outpitched Sutcliffe even with the innings discrepancy. Sabathia probably won’t equal Johnson’s brilliance, but if he continues to pitch at the level he has since arriving in Milwaukee, he’ll get close, and he’s certainly put himself in the discussion. This trade couldn’t have gone any better for the Brewers.

It is hard to believe but the minor league season is nearing an end. With its season more than half over, the short season New York-Penn League has announced its All-Star teams. Made up of a collection of Latin players, 2008 college draft picks and 2006 or 2007 high school players, the teams are loaded with talent and intriguing stories. Let’s take a quick look at a few of the more interesting players:

Bradley Holt (New York NL), 21, was nabbed in the 2008 supplemental first round and has not skipped a beat after a solid college season. He has allowed just 34 hits in 54.2 innings and has a 1.98 ERA with 27 walks allowed and 69 strikeouts.

Robert Bell (Toronto), soon to be 23, was selected all the way down in the 18th round, possibly because so many teams are worried about health issues with Rice University graduates. Working out of the bullpen, Bell has allowed just 13 hits in 25.1 innings and he has yet to allow a walk. He has also struck out 35 batters and has racked up 10 saves.

Miguel Fermin (Florida), 23, is a little old for the league but the catcher can hit. Last season in the Dominican Summer League, Fermin hit .336/.386/.474 in 116 at-bats. In 2008, the right-handed batter is dominating the league with a line of .370/.393/.676 in 173 at-bats. The 165-pound backstop has increased his power output with 13 homers but has just eight walks.

Shortstop Chase D’Arnaud (Pittsburgh) is best known at this point for being 2007 first round pick Travis D’Arnaud’s older brother. The 21-year-old is now making a name for himself with a line of .339/.371/.505 in 109 at-bats. He has also stolen 10 bases in 11 attempts.

Pat Venditte (New York AL) is well known now as being a true ambidextrous hurler (he throws with both right and left hands). Hardly a sideshow, Venditte has saved 16 games and has allowed just 10 hits in 25.2 innings. Left-handed batters have hit just .088 against Venditte.

Backstop Robert Alcombrack (Cleveland), 20, has lots of raw power but he is beginning to learn how to be a better all-around hitter. After slugging seven homers in 127 Gulf Coast League at-bats in 2007, Alcombrack has managed just one this season but his average has improved more than 30 points to .274. He was originally selected out of high school in the seventh round of the 2006 draft.

At 5’7”, Mike Gosse (Detroit) will always have detractors, but the second baseman is doing his best David Eckstein impression. He currently has a line of .292/.333/.375 in 168 at-bats. His average has improved each of the last three months. Gosse has also struck out just nine times to go along with 12 walks.

Last year, Matt Cain posted one of the best 7-16 seasons of all time, clearly producing numbers above the level expected from a record like that. He would give up two or less runs and and lose or fail to record a decision more often than win, which speaks volumes to the offense “supporting” him. This year, he got off to a similar start, losing games in which he pitched poorly, but not winning the games he deserved to win. With a month and a half left he has already surpassed last year’s total with eight wins, but his record still is not indicative of what the rest of his numbers suggest.

He has a 3.57 ERA supported by a 3.48 FIP. Though he walks hitters to the tune of 3.62 per nine innings, he is pretty hard to hit, which is currently resulting in a 1.28 WHIP. On top of that, he rarely gives up home runs, as evidenced by his 5.7% HR/FB that is very similar to his numbers in this metric over his entire career. For the record, league average is around eleven percent.

This year, he has given up two earned runs or less in 13 starts, and gone just 6-1 in that span. Though better than his results in 2007, that means there are six no-decisions that could have or should have been wins. Though I ultimately don’t care about the W-L record, most of the country does, and Cain’s reputation is likely hurt outside of San Francisco or NL West teams because of this. He has seemingly perfected the art form of pitching well enough to win while losing or not getting any decision.

His 1.62 WPA/LI and 1.54 REW are solid for this year, but nowhere near the top of the leaderboards. He has been the perfect compliment to Tim Lincecum and a great number two pitcher. For those curious, his WPA/LI is one win lower than Lincecum and his REW is about two wins lower. Still, the tag team nicknamed “LinceCain” is one reason Giants fans should feel happy about something from this season.

Cain is a very good pitcher… not a league best righty by any means, but with some better run support, his reputation would be much stronger amongst baseball fans. He could conceivably receive, and deservedly so, a huge contract when it is free agency time despite a potential W-L record 20 games below .500.

What a strange, strange season B.J. Upton is having. If you didn’t see the play from last night, well, just imagine the laziest baserunning play possible, then carry that to an exponent of ten, and that’s how bad Upton looked getting tagged from behind by Mark Teixeira while not running out a double. He wasn’t running hard because he thought it was a home run, though it’s anyone’s guess why he kept jogging after the ball hit the wall . Given that he was just benched by manager Joe Maddon for a lack of hustle, doing his best Manny impersonation probably wasn’t a good idea.

However, that’s not the only reason why Upton’s having a strange year. Look at his line for the season, and then try to think of a similar performance:

.269/.380/.398, 435 AB, 8 HR, 82 BB, 107 K

The OBP/SLG line aren’t that strange, as there are always guys floating around that specialize in getting on base even though they aren’t much in the way of power threats. Often, these guys are middle infielders with great bat control (think Willie Randolph or Luis Castillo) who hit for a nice average and draw walks due to their control of the strike zone. That doesn’t describe B.J. Upton at all.

Instead, Upton has walk and strikeout rates that would be normal for a power hitting slugger, but he just has eight home runs. He’s not getting the fear walks that guys like Pujols and Berkman do, but instead, he’s drawing ball four by being willing to work the count – he has just a 40% swing rate and a 14% O-Swing%, showing that he’s just not willing to chase pitches out of the zone. Generally, however, pitchers will challenge hitters who work the count but aren’t long ball threats, which is why Marco Scutaro isn’t drawing 80 walks a year.

The only guy who has found success with a similar skillset in MLB history is Tony Phillips, who was the king of working the count without having a lot of power. For all of Upton’s physical abilities, though, he’ll have to be disappointed if his career ends up as a Tony Phillips type player – he really should be a star, but as last night made obvious, the work ethic still isn’t there. Hopefully he learns.