The Phillies fell to the Marlins last night, 8-2, dropping their lead in the NL East to just one and a half games. I missed the game due to attending a Hootie and the Blowfish concert, but upon learning the score, developed a real gut feeling that Shane Victorino was somehow involved in those two runs. You see, Victorino, otherwise known as “The Flyin’ Hawaiian,” has been on an absolute tear over the last month and yet very few have realized. Sure enough, the box score revealed that the Phillies two runs came as a result of a two-run homer off the bat of Victorino. Granted, replays showed it was likely a foul ball, but that isn’t changing the stat sheets or the fact that he has been one of baseball’s best over the last month.

Thanks to the ‘last 30 days’ feature here we can definitively check how his performance has been and gauge it relative to the rest of the league. Here are his numbers:

Last 30 Days: .347/.386/.705, 1.091 OPS, 6 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 1.30 WPA/LI

His WPA/LI ranks behind just Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun, meaning that Victorino has arguably been the most productive players in the NL over the last thirty days, let alone the most productive centerfielder. Additionally, his 1.091 OPS and 8 HR top all centerfielders. To add even more fuel to the fire, all of this has been built upon a .316 BABIP; while the BABIPs of other hot performers in this span are ridiculously high and unsustainable, Shane’s has been relatively normal.

The recent stretch has brought his overall seasonal line to read: .288/.351/.451, 20 2B, 11 HR, 1.20 WPA/LI, 1.00 REW. His WPA/LI ranks fourth amongst NL centerfielders behind Rick Ankiel, Nate McLouth, and Carlos Beltran; his REW comes behind just McLouth and Beltran.

As The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball as well as a few other studies have shown, hot and cold streaks have very little predictive ability, so this isn’t to say Victorino will outslug Ryan Howard from here on out. Still, he has been very productive and I would be willing to wager that the vast majority of baseball knows next to nothing about him.

Plugging him into the in-season Marcel, Shane would go .278/.343/.421 with 10 2B and 5 HR. This would bring his overall line to .284/.346/.441, with 30 2B and 16 HR. Compare then his projected 2008 finish to his 2006 and 2007 seasons:

2006: .287/.346/.414, .760 OPS, 19 2B, 6 HR
2007: .281/.347/.423, .770 OPS, 23 2B, 12 HR
2008: .284/.346/.441, .787 OPS, 30 2B, 16 HR

His BA and OBP would stay virtually the same while the value of those hits—more doubles and home runs—would increase. He may not get much better considering his age of 27 years old, but teams could do a lot worse than having a solid centerfielder with a very good arm who would top their speed charts and add a dimension of power. He may not get the publicity of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, or Ryan Howard, but his contributions have definitely been key in getting the Phillies out of their recent funk.

One of my favorite additions of the year here at FanGraphs is the ability to split data down by time frames on the leaderboards. It makes finding out who has been hot or cold lately very easy, and it’s just a lot of fun. So, let’s take a stroll through the last 30 days of performance together.

On Fire

Justin Morneau: .345/.468/.690, 1.23 WPA/LI, 87 at-bats, 21 walks, 9 strikeouts.

Despite by praise for Denard Span this morning, Morneau is carrying the Twins offense right now. Minnesota really needed to get a hitter to stick behind him so that opposing pitchers are a bit more willing to pitch to him, because right now, Jason Kubel isn’t a sufficient threat.

Ryan Braun: .358/.397/.745, 1.46 WPA/LI, 106 at-bats, 7 walks, 24 strikeouts.

Braun’s on one of his patented slugfests, launching nine home runs in the last 30 days. He’s still as uber-aggressive as always, but with his raw power, it doesn’t matter. He can really hit a baseball a long ways.

Manny Ramirez: .453/.543/.787, 1.50 WPA/LI, 75 at-bats, 12 walks, 10 strikeouts.

For all the talk about Manny not playing hard for Boston, he was killing the ball when they traded him and he’s killing the ball in Los Angeles. Even with all his defensive issues and antics, it’s important to remember that Manny Being Manny includes him being one of the best hitters in the league.

Ice Cold

Jason Kendall: .148/.227/.216, -0.92 WPA/LI, 88 at-bats, 7 walks, 10 strikeouts

Braun is offsetting this miserable performance, as no amount of veteran leadership and game calling can make up for the fact that Kendall hits about as well as a pitcher nowadays. You have to wonder if the Brewers knew Pudge Rodriguez was available, because he would have been a monstrous upgrade for them at the deadline.

Mark Ellis: .188/.250/.259, -0.88 WPA/LI, 85 at-bats, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts

So much for all free agents going bananas in their walk years, as Ellis is struggling mightily as he heads towards a big payday this winter. His calling card remains his excellent defense at second base, but it’s his ability to hit a bit that sets him apart from guys like Adam Everett and John McDonald. Teams don’t value defense as highly on the open market as they do offensive performance, so if Ellis is going to land a big multiyear contract, he’d do well to start whacking the baseball again.

Jacoby Ellsbury: .226/.244/.262, -0.64 WPA/LI, 84 at-bats, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts

After a phenemonal debut last year, expectations for Ellsbury were high, but he’s run into the second year wall. His lack of power has pitchers challenging him in the strike zone, and while he’s making contact, he’s not doing anything with the ball when he puts the bat on it. As the slump has intensified, he’s tried to hack his way out of it, and that hasn’t worked much better. He’ll bounce back, but he’s got some adjustments to make, and right now, Boston can’t afford to have him making outs at the top of the line-up while they try to chase down the Rays.

It’s not often that professional baseball players slip under the radar, but it does happen. Just ask Mike Piazza, who was drafted in the 62nd round of the amateur draft. Or ask current Auburn Doubleday (New York Penn League) Adam Amar.

Amar was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of the Golden Baseball League where he spent one season with the Reno Silver Sox in Nevada. He caught the Toronto Blue Jays’ attention by hitting .354/.423/.625 in 96 at-bats. He was a four-year player at the University of Memphis and led the Conference USA with a .395 average in his junior season (1996) but was not drafted at all during his college career due to a perceived lack of power (He hit nine homers in 240 at-bats during his senior year) and below-average defensive skills at first base.

After signing his first contract with a Major League Baseball organization, Amar hit more than .400 in minor league spring training for the Jays in 2008 but was edged out for a spotting start in full-season Lansing (Midwest League) by 19-year-old Michael McDade, who struggled and is now Amar’s teammate in Auburn after a demotion. Adding to the depth at first base, the Jays selected David Cooper in the first round of the 2008 draft and he switched places with McDade and is now manning first base in Lansing (And is hitting .354/.416/.545 in 178 at-bats over two levels).

Amar, though, is making a case for full-season ball as well with a line of .353/.411/.607 with eight homers in 150 at-bats. The 22-year-old slugger has also struck out only 10 times to go along with 12 walks. He is first in the New York Penn League in average and doubles, second in slugging percentage and homers, third in on-base percentage and hits, and fourth in RBI. Only Oneonta’s Mike Gosse, a second baseman, has struck out fewer times with more than 100 at-bats – and he’s a contract hitter with zero homers.

Amar – who stands 6-4 and is 240 lbs – is also a well-rounded, right-handed hitter who is hitting .378 against southpaws and .345 against right-handers. He is hitting .356 with the bases empty and .333 with runners in scoring position. While many short-season hitters are beginning to fade, Amar has hit three homers and driven in 12 runs in his last six games.

He has a long way to go before he is ever mentioned in the same paragraph as Piazza again but Amar’s career is off to a nice start and it’s not hard to root for him.

The Twins head into August as surprising contenders in the A.L. Central. Perhaps no player has been a bigger surprise on that squad than Denard Span, who entered the year as a busted prospect but has had a breakthrough season and now finds himself as the Twins everyday right fielder. And with the way he’s playing, he’s not giving it up any time soon.

Since his return to Minnesota at the beginning of July, Span has hit .313/.403/.463 in 134 at-bats, racking up 0.53 WPA/LI in basically one month’s worth of playing time. As an extreme ground ball hitter (58% GB%), the power is a bit unexpected, but he’s doing it by hitting the ball on the screws (25% LD%). Adding the extra base hits to his ability to work the count (13% BB%) and his speed (7 infield hits, 2 bunt hits), and you’ve got a guy with an all around offensive attack.

Span won’t keep posting slugging marks this high, but he can certainly be a quality player with this skill set. Because of how often he slaps the ball into the ground, his upside is something resembling Ichiro-type OBP/SLG numbers (obviously with fewer hits and some more walks) than Kenny Lofton, just without the same propensity for stealing bases of either of those two. And, considering that 2008 is the first year Span has ever showed this level of offensive production, I hesitate to use those names, but we have to acknowledge that the speed/walks/defense package can produce a pretty terrific player.

Denard Span, right now, is what Boston fans thought Jacoby Ellsbury was going to be for them this year. He’s flying a bit under the radar, but keep on eye on the kid up in Minnesota. If they end up winning that division, he’s going to be one of the main reasons why.

The conventional wisdom for pitchers is that they want to strike out twice as many batters as they walk. A two to one K/BB rate is seen as the foundation for what a pitcher should aim for, and obviously, the better pitchers will get to three to one or higher. Generally, if a pitcher is striking out three times as many batters as he’s walking, he’s going to succeed, even if he isn’t particularly good at anything else. That kind of strike zone dominance makes it very easy to get hitters out on a regular basis.

Take, for instance, this group of starters, all who have basically identical K/BB rates, just a tick above 3.00: Johan Santana, Zach Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Derek Lowe, Andy Pettitte. That’s an all-star cast of front line starters. But there’s one name missing from the group, a guy with a K/BB that puts him square in the middle of such select company.

Jesse Litsch. You know, the guy Toronto optioned to Triple-A a few weeks ago.

Seriously, go take a look at Litsch’s season numbers. His 4.46 ERA is supported by a 4.58 FIP, showing that he’s been basically as good as advertised. He offsets a lack of strikeouts by pounding the strike zone regularly, not walking anyone (1.49 BB/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (49.8% GB%). However, he struggled in three consecutive starts leading up to his demotion, and a couple of weeks of poor work was enough for the Blue Jays to conclude that he would be better served working on his weaknesses in the minor leagues.

Maybe they’re right – they’re closer to Litsch than we are, and so they’re privy to information that we are not, but it’s hard to come up with a scenario where a guy with a 3.00+ K/BB rate isn’t good enough to pitch in the major leagues right now.

Logan Morrison is one hot fish prospect.

Signed via the now defunct draft-and-follow process, Morrison was a B-level prospect entering the 2008 season, looking to build on a promising 2007 season. In 2005, he was selected in the 22nd round out of the same community college program that produced St. Louis’ Albert Pujols.

The 20-year-old, left-handed hitting first baseman slugged 24 homers and hit .267/.343/.483 in his first full pro season in 2007 in A-ball. The hard-working player struggled with southpaws on the mound and hit below .200.

Although the homers are down in 2008 at High-A ball (13 in 391 at-bats), Morrison is hitting .359 against lefties and .355/.414/.547 overall. He has 34 doubles, a line drive rate of 22 percent and has struck out just 58 times. Morrison is also developing a reputation as a run producer with a .348 average with runners in scoring position, along with 51 RBI in 89 at-bats.

While a lot of young players wear down as the season progresses, Morrison has grown stronger and hit .396/.442/.614 in 101 July at-bats. He also walked nine times and struck out just eight times. If he keeps this up, Morrison could be near the top of the Marlins’ prospect list by the end of the season.

One of the most sought after players leading up to, and at, the trading deadline was Kansas City Royals reliever Ron Mahay. I’m not sure if he was ever really going anywhere or if the media latched onto this effective lefty as a potential savior for some teams, brewing the trade winds themselves. Regardless, he stayed put and is still a late inning lefty for the Royals. In looking at his numbers, I was quite surprised (and embarrassed) to find out that he is actually in the midst of his twelfth big league season; I honestly had not heard of him prior to 2001.

From 1997-2002 his numbers jumped all over the place. Here are his FIPs and LOB% in that span:

1997: 4.23, 89.2%
1998: 5.02, 67.2%
1999: 3.38, 85.4%
2000: 6.54, 69.1%
2001: 5.41, 98.1%
2002: 8.01, 55.6%

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Mahay is what it appeared to be throughout these six years, but he apparently still performed well enough to earn more opportunities. That could largely be due to the fact that his career ERA is close to a full run below his FIP; the controllable skills might not be there but that does not automatically disqualify him from effectiveness. From 2003 to the midpoint of 2007 he played for the Rangers before being traded to Atlanta in the Mark Teixieira deal. In the off-season he signed with the Royals and has been one of the most effective relievers this year, and arguably the best non-closer.

In looking at the Relievers page on the leaderboards here, Mahay has the 5th highest WPA of any reliever in baseball. The top portion of that board is generally reserved to closers as they usually perform in the most pressure-filled situations; Mahay’s position means he has found himself in some tight jams and performed admirably in escaping from them.

Now, WPA is not an end-all barometer, but it does have more merit when dealing with relievers. Still, I like to think of it the way Dave Studeman thinks of it, as a “story stat,” one that mirrors our emotions in the game and tells the story of exactly what happened. Based on our emotions when watching, Mahay’s performance has been worth about three wins this year. Teammate Joakim Soria ranks second with a 3.57 WPA, so they have quite possibly been the best relief tandem in baseball this year, yet both are likely still unknown in numerous areas across the country.

When we look at WPA/LI, however, or context-neutral wins, Mahay falls to thirteenth, worth about one win. Soria ranks first in the whole league, at just about two wins, and another of their teammates, Ramon Ramirez, actually ranks ninth, ahead of Mahay. WPA/LI counts each plate appearance as its own entity and attempts to rid the bias in WPA that credits certain situations as being worth many more plate appearances. This tells us that Mahay has been very adept in late-inning situations but his overall performance has not been as incredible as we may think.

He is still performing very well and would most likely be an upgrade on any of the teams that received him, but he is not a savior. And especially considering his trade would have taken place at the deadline, when as Dave showed, the upgrades would not be as substantial with just fifty games remaining, you have to wonder how much of an upgrade he even would have been. As I said, he is a very good reliever relative to the last two years, but a team’s success should not hinge upon acquiring Ron Mahay.

Though the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sport a pythagorean record nine games worse than their actual mark, they have outdone this run-based estimator each year since 2004. Credit Mike Scioscia as a tremendous manager, or the makeup of the team, but the fact remains they currently own the best record in baseball. On top of that they hold an 11.5 game lead over the second place Rangers; quite honestly, barring some drastic, unforeseen event, this division is all but locked up.

One of the reasons the Halos have been so effective to date is their starting rotation. With that in mind, let’s take a look at its members and see if we can get to know these pitchers a little better.

John Lackey
9-2, 3.10 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, .266 BABIP, 80.1% LOB, 3.40 K/BB
HR/FB between 5.7% and 9.0% from 2004-07; currently 12.4%

Ervin Santana
12-5, 3.38 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, .294 BABIP, 74.5% LOB, 3.67 K/BB
2007: 150.0 IP, 174 H, 96 ER, 26 HR, 58 BB, 126 K
2008: 149.1 IP, 130 H, 59 ER, 14 HR, 39 BB, 143 K

Joe Saunders
14-5, 3.09 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .244 BABIP, 77.4% LOB, 1.74 K/BB
6th lowest K/9 at 4.38, 4th lowest BABIP, 1st lowest LD rate at 13.5%

Jered Weaver
9-9, 4.37 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, .266 BABIP, 71.7% LOB, 2.59 K/BB
Most numbers better than 2007 but less flyballs with an increase in HR/FB

Jon Garland
10-6, 4.30 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.45 WHIP, .299 BABIP, 72.4% LOB, 1.40 K/BB
5th lowest K/9 at 4.11, FIP 4.24-4.36 from 2005-07
47.9% GB (from 39.4% in 07), 28.4% FB (from 37.7% in 07), but 11.9% HR/FB (from 7.1% in 07)

Of these five pitchers, based on their BABIPs and strand rates, it appears that Santana and Garland are the most “for real.” Weaver’s strand rate is right around league average but his BABIP has been well below average. Lackey’s strand rate is likely unsustainable, regardless of how talented he may be, and given his BABIPs in the .300+ range over the last few years, a .266 mark is quite low.

Saunders and Santana seem to be on opposite ends of the luck/skills spectrum. Lefty Joe has built his seasonal line upon an unsustainably low BABIP, a high 77.4% strand rate, one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, and one of the lowest rates of line drives in the last twenty years. Could he defy the odds and prove to be regression-proof? Sure, it happens time to time. I just wouldn’t bet on him being as effective from here on out. Santana, on the other hand, has more earthbound numbers and, as surprising as it may be that he is the same guy that looked lucky to have a job last year, he has not benefited from too much luck this year.

When Saunders, Lackey, and Weaver experience their likely regressions it won’t hurt the Angels chances of making the playoffs but it does call into question who may start in that division series against the Rays/Red Sox/Yankees. Lackey is going to be the #1, and based on performance to date, Santana should be #2, but who would you start in that series? Do you trust Saunders enough to sustain these ridiculous rates? Or would you throw him in regardless given the fact that he is a lefty?

When the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez last week, many assumed it was to replace the pair of busted free agents signed the last couple of winters, Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones. They were only half right – while Jones takes his rightful seat on the bench, Joe Torre remains enamored with Juan Pierre, who has been anointed as the team’s center fielder for the remainder of the year. To make room for Ramirez, Andre Ethier heads to the bench.

From an offensive perspective, this is ridiculous. Pierre is hitting .281/.326/.318 compared to Ethier’s .274/.339/.442 mark. Pierre’s abilities on the base paths are canceled out – and then some – by Ethier’s ability to hit the ball out of the infield. In fact, thanks to the Hardball Times newly published rest-of-season Marcel projections and Tom Tango’s Wins Above Replacement calculations, we can quantify the win value differences between the two.

Offensively, Ethier’s expected performance in August and September will be worth about six runs above a replacement level corner outfielder. Not bad for two months. Pierre, on the other hand, pretty much defines replacement level. He’s projected at a whopping half a run over a replacement level center fielder over the next two months. Not impressive, Juan.

So, by giving Pierre a couple hundred at-bats that would have otherwise gone to Ethier, the Dodgers are punting about five runs of offense, which translates to about half a win. Considering how tight most people expect the race to be down the stretch, you don’t just punt several runs for the heck of it.

However, we haven’t taken defense entirely into account yet. Ethier’s five run advantage would only hold if both he and Pierre were average defenders for their respective positions, but the Dodgers clearly believe this isn’t the case, putting Pierre in the line-up for his fly catching ability. John Dewan’s +/- system supports this assertion, having Pierre at +12 plays in CF in 2006 and +9 plays in CF last year. He’s +4 plays in limited time in LF this year. The conclusion for Pierre seems relatively obvious – he’s a better than average defensive CF, probably something like +1.7 runs over the remaining 1/3 of the season.

The picture on Ethier isn’t as clear. Dewan’s +/- loved him in RF last year (+16) but hates him this year (-7), though it has him basically average in each of the last three years in LF. The RF numbers are probably sample size noise, as it’s highly unlikely that Ethier is either good or terrible as a corner OF, given what scouting data and other defensive systems tell us about his abilities. The best assumption is that he’s about average, though we have to make that conclusion with less confidence than with Pierre.

The defensive difference closes the gap, but only partially so. In fact, to balance out the offensive differences over the remaining two months, we’d have to accept that Pierre is both a +10 run defender over a full season in CF and that Ethier is a -13 run defender in RF/LF over a full season. If both of those opinions about their relative defensive abilities were true, they’d be pretty much equal in talent – about 2.5 runs above a replacement level outfielder for the final two months.

The Dodgers obviously believe the defensive difference is large enough to justify giving Pierre at-bats at Ethier’s expense. I doubt they’re right, however. Most likely, they’e punting a couple of runs the rest of the year by choosing the wrong player. But I do think there’s enough vagueness in our ability to evaluate defensive abilities to admit that the Dodgers may not be making the worst decision ever. If they’re right about the defensive difference, it’s not a big deal which one starts.

If they’re not, however, it could cost them the division. Sounds like a high risk, no reward decision to me.

Let’s play a little game. Below are seasonal lines for four of the top pitchers in the National League, and I would like you to try and identify the owners while simultaneously deciding which holds the best numbers:

a) 3.04 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 7.60 K/9, 3.33 K/BB, .294 BABIP
b) 2.59 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 9.02 K/9, 3.70 K/BB, .292 BABIP
c) 3.14 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 3.51 K/BB, .303 BABIP
d) 3.28 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 8.77 K/9, 3.69 K/BB, .304 BABIP

All four have earthbound BABIPs so it isn’t to say one has been more or less lucky than another in that area, and each has very solid numbers. While any team should feel safe with any one of these pitchers, I would tend to think that Pitcher B has the best numbers of the group. His WHIP is the lowest, K/9 the highest, K/BB the highest, ERA the lowest, with a higher-but-still-great FIP.

With that in mind, here are the identities:

a) Brandon Webb
b) Jake Peavy
c) Ben Sheets
d) CC Sabathia

Of the four pitching lines above, Jake Peavy arguably has the best numbers, and yet this baseball fan/writer simply has not heard anything about his performance to date. With so many surprise-pitchers like Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Ryan Dempster, et al, hogging the headlines and the Padres spending most of the season as cellar-dwellars, the Jakester has seemingly been lost in the shuffle. His 8-7 W-L record does not help him much either; while many of us understand how W-L records are terrible barometers there are many more fans who treat that stat as gospel.

One aspect of Peavy’s performance line due to regress is his strand rate. To date he has allowed very few baserunners and 84.5% of them have been left on base. The league average is around 72% and an absolutely tremendous season may result in a 77-79% rate; sustaining an 84.5% rate just is not very likely. When this does regress, it means more runners will score, which should lessen the gap between his ERA and FIP; however, his numbers will likely still be very, very good.

Plugging him into the in-season Marcel, Peavy is expected to finish off the season with 56 innings over nine starts, walking 17 and fanning 55 batters. His WHIP over the remainder would be an almost-identical 1.14, while his FIP would drop to 3.07. Should this come to fruition, his season would finish like this:

28 GS, 178 IP, 150 H, 50 BB, 177 K, 1.12 WHIP, 2.74 ERA, 3.21 FIP

There are very few pitchers in the league likely to finish with numbers better than that yet nobody seems to be discussing him. Maybe he has the Pujols-syndrome in which everyone expects tremendous numbers and because of that would rather discuss the surprises. That doesn’t seem very fair though. In closing, here are Peavy’s ranks in the NL:

1st, 2.59 ERA
2nd, 3.70 K/BB
2nd, 27.66 BRAA
3rd, 2.75 REW
3rd, 1.12 WHIP
5th, 9.02 K/9
6th, 3.27 FIP
6th, 1.99 WPA/LI

To me, that’s someone who should be getting some recognition, regardless of whether or not his performance level is expected.