Life was good for the Cubs this year – they won 97 games, best in the National League by a comfortable margin, and essentially ran away with the NL Central. They were the only NL team to crack 800 runs scored, and only the Dodgers allowed fewer than the 671 runs they gave up. They hit, they pitched, they fielded well – they were the league’s best team and played like it all season long.

So, as they look to open their NLDS series against the Dodgers, what is the path to success that will lead the Cubs to a WS Championship?

Get Carlos Zambrano fixed

Three starts ago, Big Z threw a dominating no hitter, shutting down the Astros in a game that seemed to state loudly that his arm was fine. His next two starts were a disaster, however, as he gave up 13 runs in 6 1/3 innings. His command was gone (7 walks), he wasn’t missing bats (3 strikeouts out of 35 batters faced), and hitters were pounding the pitches they swung at (4 of the 9 hits he allowed were XBH knocks).

The Cubs need Zambrano to win it all. The most important variable for the Cubs this October is getting him pitching like the guy he’s been for the last few years. If they can’t, the odds of them holding a parade drop significantly.

Low Leverage Jeff Samardzija

His no-clue-where-the-strike-zone thing is worked well in August, when he posted a .256 BABIP, which kept runs off the board even as he put baserunners on. However, he simply couldn’t sustain that kind of performance, and he was pretty lousy in September – more walks than strikeouts with 19 of the 47 batters he faced reaching base. Velocity can be seducing, and it’s tempting to want to hand the ball to the guy who throws 98 as often as possible, but Samardzija isn’t a very good reliever right now, and the fewer important innings the Cubs give him, the better off they’ll be.

Get Fontenot in the line-up

Mike Fontenot hs had a remarkably good season as a reserve infielder who played when Mark DeRosa was playing something besides second base. His .305/.395/.514 line made him one of the Cubs best hitters, though obviously those numbers are inflated by his limited playing time. However, there’s a good case to be made that Fontenot is a better player than Kosuke Fukodome right now, and the Cubs best line-up involves moving DeRosa to right field in order to keep Fontenot in the line-up. As good as the Cubs offense is, you don’t want to be leaving runs on the bench in a playoff series, and the difference between Fontenot’s bat and Fukodome’s could end up deciding a game. Play your best players, and right now, Fontenot is one of your best players.

Last night the Mets and Brewers both won, leaving the NL Wild Card race at a standstill. The Rays lost and Red Sox won leaving the Rays still without a clinched division title. The Twins came back from a huge deficit and completed a sweep of the White Sox, but that still left the separation in the division at one half of a game, just with a new leader now.

Those races are all highly publicized. One other race was pared down last night that might have gone unreported. With the Mariners losing, the Padres were officially eliminated from the race for the first overall pick in next June’s amateur draft. The tiebreaker for draft order is to award the earlier pick to the team with the worse record in the year prior and of the three teams vying for that top spot: Seattle, Washington and San Diego, the Padres had the best record in 2007, followed by Seattle.

This means that in the event that San Diego and Seattle tie in overall record come Monday, the earlier pick will be awarded to the Mariners. Since if Seattle wins out and the Padres lose out, the two teams would end up with identical records, there is now no way for the Padres to surpass the Mariners for the first pick. What that ends up meaning is still very much up in the air, but no matter who ends up emerging over the course of next Spring, draft picks get exponentially more valuable the closer they get to first overall.

The current consensus top talent, San Diego State starter Stehpen Strasburg, will be closely watched along with fellow southern California collegian Grant Green. In the event that their stock hold up into next June, that San Diego will have to hope that at least Seattle, and possibly Washington as well, pass on both can not fill them with much glee.

Three games remain for both the Phillies and Mets. The Phillies currently hold a one game lead in the NL East, and the Mets are deadlocked with the Brewers atop the Wild Card standings. The Mets have not blown a 7.5 game lead like last year, but the similarities to last year at this same time are pretty striking. Entering the final series in 2007, the Phillies and Mets were tied, and were set to host the Nationals and Marlins at home, respectively. In the first game, Cole Hamels looked dominant, striking out thirteen Nationals en route to a 6-0 win. Up north, Oliver Perez fell to Byung-Hyun Kim, 7-4, giving the Phillies a one game lead.

The next day, John Maine had a Hamels-like performance as the Mets beat up on the Marlins, 13-0. The Phillies were not as lucky, and why should they have been, with Adam Eaton on the mound? Why Eaton was pitching on such an important day will forever escape me and the multitude of Phillies fans. Anyways, they lost 4-2, once again bringing the division to a tie. On the final Sunday, I will never forget watching in shock (and glee) as Tom Glavine imploded and the Marlins erupted for seven runs in the first inning. Ramon Castro came a few inches short of a grand slam to make the score 7-5, and the Mets were down and out. Jamie Moyer, meanwhile, looked brilliant for the Phillies, as they clinched the division with a 6-1 victory.

Weather permitting, the Phillies will host the Nationals for three this weekend, while the Marlins visit Shea Stadium. Below are the tentative matchups:

Phillies vs. Nationals
Friday: Joe Blanton vs. Collin Balester
Saturday: Jamie Moyer vs. John Lannan
Sunday: Cole Hamels vs. Odalis Perez

Mets vs. Marlins
Friday: Mike Pelfrey vs. Chris Volstad
Saturday: Brandon Knight (?) vs. Ricky Nolasco
Sunday: Johan Santana vs. Scott Olsen

The question mark is not meant to serve as an insult towards Knight but rather it points towards the fact that the Mets seemingly have not decided who will pitch Saturday. The New York announcers speculated Knight would toe the rubber tomorrow and he very well might. Should the Phillies or Mets clinch prior to the final game, Hamels and Santana will likely be given the day off in order to pitch in the first game of a playoff series. With the way the forecast looks this weekend, these final games may be Monday or Tuesday. The circumstances of this season’s division race is different than last year, but just like then, both teams will have to stave off potential spoilers to earn their way into October baseball.

While there are still a few pennant races to be determined, we have a pretty good grasp on at least one series that will open next Tuesday – the Red Sox and Angels will be squaring off, as Boston’s the very likely wild card entry and the Angels will almost certainly finish with the league’s best record.

This is a tough draw for the Angels, because despite not winning their division, it’s pretty easy to make a case that the Red Sox are the best team in the AL this year. They have the league’s best run differential (+165), and no one else is particularly close. They’ve scored more runs than each of the other AL playoff teams (only Texas scored more often overall) and they’ve allowed the second fewest runs, 12 behind Tampa Bay.

On top of that, the Red Sox are built extremely well for the playoffs. Their big weakness this year was the #5 starter position, which was filled by a variety of players at different times. Overall, the starters beyond Beckett/Lester/Matsuzaka/Wakefield pitched 231 innings and had a 4.81 FIP, compared to the 3.91 FIP that the four playoff starters managed to total.

In addition, the best innings of the #5 starter group came from Justin Masterson, who has been terrific out of the bullpen for the Sox, giving them another RH setup man to bridge the gap to Jonathan Papelbon. With Hideki Okajima, Javier Lopez, and Manny Delcarman, along with Masterson and Papelbon, the Sox have five quality relievers for high leverage situations.

Assuming that the nine main pitchers for Boston log a significant majority of the playoff innings, the Red Sox probably have the best playoff pitching staff of any team headed into October. Beckett’s a legitimate #1, Lester and Matsuzaka are inconsistent but occasionally brilliant, and Wakefield’s knuckler makes him one of the best #4 starters around.

This isn’t to say the Angels don’t have a chance – they have a good team with some quality arms themselves, but their reward for having the AL’s best record is a date with a team that is probably superior in most ways. If the Angels end up bowing out in the first round, it won’t be because they couldn’t handle the pressure – they’ve just drawn a better opponent.

The Atlanta Braves organization is well-known for its preference in drafting raw high school pitchers and molding them with the club’s pitching philosophies. The 2006 draft was known for being heavy in talented college pitchers, but the Braves still followed through with the club’s original formula and selected four high school pitchers as part of its seven picks within the first three rounds of the draft.

(FYI: The club also draft high school first baseman Cody Johnson, community college shortstop Chase Fontaine, and college pitcher Dustin Evans).

Cory Rasmus, brother of St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus, was the first prep pitcher taken by Atlanta (38th overall). He has been slowed by injuries and has pitched just 13 innings in the last three seasons. He is expected to be healthy in 2009 and the right-hander should spend most of the year in A-ball.

Steve Evarts (43rd) has also pitched far less in the past three seasons than the Braves had hoped he would, in part due to injuries and in part due to disciplinary reasons. When he’s been on the mound, the young lefty has pitched well and he has a 2.30 career ERA in 98 innings, having allowed just 86 hits and 17 walks, with 81 strikeouts.

Jeff Locke (51st) has at least been able to stay on the mound for three seasons with good, but not spectacular, results. This season, his first in full-season ball, Locke allowed 150 hits in 139.2 innings but walked just 38 batters and struck out 113. The lefty obviously has excellent control, but he needs to miss more bats if he is going to be successful in the upper minors.

Chad Rodgers (100th) was the fourth high school pitcher taken and the third lefty. He, like Locke, played his first full season of ball in 2008 after two stints in Rookie ball. Rodgers went just 2-10 with a 4.53 ERA and split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen. He showed good control (2.76 BB/9) and struck out more batters than Locke (7.59 K/9) but also had trouble missing bats and allowed more than one hit per inning.

It’s true what they say: Young pitchers will break your heart. This quartet of talented pitchers have opportunities that millions dream of, but few realize. It’s about time they start to take advantage of those chances.

Heading into the final weekend of play, there are some playoff races that look like they could go down to the wire, and last night, we saw some huge plays that could end up being season altering for the teams involved. Here’s a look at the biggest hits.

8th inning, White Sox lead 6-5, runner at first, 1 out: Denard Span triples off Bobby Jenks.

Span’s hit was huge, adding .419 WPA by driving in a runner not already in scoring position to tie a crucial game with just five outs left before the Twins lost. That hit set the stage for

9th inning, Twins-White Sox tied at 6, runners at first and third, 2 out: Alexi Casilla singles off Jenks.

A game winning single by Casilla gives the Twins the win and the division lead, though he should share the .360 WPA credit with Nick Punto, who was able to draw the walk that eventually led to the winning run. By winning again, the Twins have taken the division lead from the White Sox headed into the final weekend of play.

10th inning, Brewers-Pirates tied at 1, bases loaded, 2 out: Ryan Braun hits a home run off of Jesse Chavez

The Brewers are in a race to the finish for the Wild Card, and they needed a big. Ryan Braun’s walkoff grand slam added .339 WPA and sealed the win for Milwaukee, allowing them to keep pace with the Mets because…

9th inning, Cubs-Mets tied at 6, runners at first and second, 2 out: Carlos Beltran singles off Kevin Hart

Beltran gave the Mets a walkoff win of their own, racking up .386 WPA for his game winning single. Seriously, MVP voters who want to give an award to a Met named Carlos – you’re focusing on the wrong one. Beltran’s been tremendous for the Mets this year, and while he’s obviously not the NL MVP, he’s the better candidate on the boys from Queens.

Never minding the ludicrous idea that the Tigers could score 1,000 runs this season, they did look to come into the year with an overpowering offense and despite a slow start to April that left most people forgetful of them, the Tigers did exactly that. Though Miguel Cabrera perhaps had a disappointing season given his hype and move over to first base defensively, the Tigers offense was not what sunk them this season.

No, it was on the run prevention side that Detroit flopped. Notably, their defense was horrible. Anyone who was paying attention in 2007 would have predicted that coming in however. What was unexpected was the utter collapse of the Tigers pitching staff. Last season the bullpen was nothing special, but neither were they especially terrible. This year? Not so much as they had Bobby Seay and that’s about it as far as relievers that actually contributed positively to the pen.

However, not even that is the most troubling aspect of 2008 for Detroit. That distinction goes to the rotation, once hyped full of young talent. In 2008, it nearly all fell apart aside from Justin Verlander. Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Kenny Rogers were all colossal failures compared to preseason expectations and what’s worse is that Detroit purged its system of Andrew Miller in acquiring Willis and Cabrera from Florida.

Detroit would like hope to be on the way in the form of Rick Porcello, but the teenage stud of the 2007 draft who the Tigers nabbed after he fell due to signability reasons did not have an inaugural professional season to write home about. Walking or hitting over 8% of hitters in advanced A ball isn’t going to get you noticed unless you’re fanning over 25% of them at the same time. Porcello certainly wasn’t doing that, registering a 13.7% figure in that department.

Yes, Porcello is young. Very young in fact; just 19 in a league averaging 23 years of age, but his slow start just going to reinforce that the Tigers are going to need to look elsewhere for awhile to find help in the rotation.

Back at the beginning of the season, fans in Cincinnati did not really know what to expect after trading away best-story winner Josh Hamilton for a slender righthanded pitcher named Edinson Volquez. After a month, many were convinced that the trade was a win-win, because Hamilton’s bat caught fire and Volquez emerged as the early Cy Young Award favorite in the National League. Few had truly heard of Volquez or knew anything about his repertoire, velocity, or potential, but he dominated hitters left and right, posting some insane numbers in the process. In fact, if Cliff Lee had not had an Orel Hershiser-esque stretch, Volquez would have looked even better early on.

In his first 13 games, 12 of which were starts, Volquez amassed 75 innings, giving up just 49 hits, only 3 of which were longballs. Walks were a bit of an issue as he surrendered 38 free passes, but he showed the ability to miss bats with 91 strikeouts, a 10.92 K/9. His ERA was a measly 1.32, his average game score was 68, and hitters were posting a .188/.303/.261 slash line against.

Over his last 20 starts, his numbers have regressed, and his position atop the out-of-nowhere-story throne was lost, but his overall season is still quite good. In this 20-start span, Volquez posted the following: 121 IP, 118 H, 11 HR, 55 BB, 115 K, 4.39 ERA, 51 GSC, .257/.345/.403. Okay, so he became human again and looked a bit closer to what we would expect from an average pitcher instead of the dominant force through the beginning of June. But hey, Hamilton regressed too, so it is still a win-win.

Combined, Volquez is at 196 innings pitched, just 167 hits surrendered, 93 walks, and 206 strikeouts. His 9.46 K/9 is very attractive but the 4.27 BB/9 chips away a bit. A 2.22 K/BB is not terrible but his one glaring flaw this season lies in the walks issued. His 3.21 ERA is not deemed out of line based on his 3.59 FIP, and while his 1.33 WHIP is closer to average than dominant, his 75.5% strand rate has ensured a good portion of those runners remained put. He should get one more start to finish up the season, making it very likely for him to surpass the 200 IP mark with solid numbers to backup that amount of usage. He might not win any postseason awards and he may have regressed since the beginning of June, but Edinson Volquez still put together one heck of a season

Tampa Bay is one game away from clinching the American League East – a win or a Red Sox loss will give them their first division title in franchise history, completing the best story of the year as the little guy slays a couple of baseball giants. Andrew Friedman and his staff deserve a ton of credit for building a division winner on a shoestring payroll.

However, some members of the mainstream media have continually attempted to demean the team building accomplishments of the Rays, claiming that the foundation of their success has been built by years of losing yielding a bevy of first round picks. As the theory goes, it’s those guys acquired as a reward of ineptitude that has allowed Tampa to thrive. To discredit the job Friedman and company have done, they instead point to the contributions of B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Scott Kazmir, Evan Longoria, and the gang acquired for Delmon Young this winter. And certainly, those guys are integral parts of the team.

However, I wonder if those same writers have noticed that the Rays have been without Crawford for the last two months and without Upton for a good chunk of September? In fact, if you look at some of the line-ups the Rays have been running out this month, it’s regularly included guys like Fernando Perez, Ben Zobrist, Dan Johnson, Eric Hinske, and Gabe Gross. With a patchwork line-up of role players, the Rays went 7-4 in games against Boston, New York, and Minnesota. Facing the toughest part of their schedule, without the two toolsy outfielders that have become the defacto face of the Rays rebuilding process, Tampa won 64 percent of their games to essentially put away the division title.

In fact, here is the WPA/LI for the Rays hitters in September:

Name WPA/LI
Carlos Pena 0.61
Evan Longoria 0.31
Gabe Gross 0.19
Willy Aybar 0.18
Ben Zobrist 0.11
Fernando Perez 0.11
Dioner Navarro 0.10
Cliff Floyd 0.10
Jason Bartlett 0.08
Justin Ruggiano 0.05
Dan Johnson 0.02
Akinori Iwamura -0.10
M. Hernandez -0.12
B.J. Upton -0.12
Eric Hinske -0.40
Rocco Baldelli -0.46

Crawford hasn’t played, Upton and Baldelli have been two of the least effective hitters, and the Rays have been able to play better than .500 ball against a ridiculously tough schedule: 6 against NY, 6 against Boston, 4 against Minnesota, 4 against Baltimore, and 3 against Toronto.

At some point, people have to recognize the contributions Tampa is getting from it’s role players this year. The Rays had Upton, Crawford, Pena, Kazmir, and Shields last year too, and they only won 66 games.

The young stars are certainly valuable commodities, but this team is going to win the AL East because of how good their role players have been. And for that, we have to acknowledge that no one in baseball has done a better job of team building in the last year than the folks down in Tampa.

Congratulations to Andrew Friedman and crew – you guys have earned this.

As it came time for this season’s action, two pitchers I had my eyes on were Dustin McGowan of the Blue Jays and Shawn Hill of the Nationals. Both had displayed the ability to succeed in the major leagues in 2007, showed very solid controllable skills, and looked poised to take the next step in 2008. Hill’s 2007 was by no means reminiscent of Pedro circa 1999-2000, but he posted a 3.42 ERA, a 4.03 FIP, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 2.60 K/BB. Via WPA/LI, Hill was worth right around one win above an average pitcher, despite making just 19 starts.

This year he was plagued with injuries right from the get-go, missing time due to a strained right forearm, then right elbow tightness, and finally right forearm tightness, an injury serious enough to keep him out of action from June 25 until the end of the season. In the time he did toe the rubber, he posted a 5.83 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a -1.18 WPA/LI, making him worth over a win less than an average starting pitcher. Fortunately, these numbers do not tell the whole story, as his BABIP was an otherworldly .373, and his strand rate was way below average because of this, at just 62%. Looking solely at his controllable skills, Hill’s FIP was 4.06, virtually identical to last year’s.

If the problems were due to the injuries, and the time off can help get him back on track, great, however he is very likely going to be on injury watch the rest of his career. I can remember watching Mitch Williams break down Hill’s mechanics before, and with Hill’s windup, his legs are planted while his arm still has its ways to go. This means he is basically throwing with all arm, which is an injury just waiting to happen. Williams proposed Hill alter his windup or else his career is going to consist of solid 16-start seasons with the other time spent rehabbing or on the disabled list.

McGowan, last year, posted a 4.08 ERA, a 3.73 FIP, a 2.36 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP, and was worth 1.5 wins above an average pitcher via WPA/LI. His 68% strand rate was below the league average but his BABIP was somewhat significantly better than the rest of the league. Entering this season, he was being counted on to be the key third member of what could be the best rotation in baseball. His numbers were not as “poor” as Hill’s, but did not signal a step forward by any means. His 3.81 FIP, very similar to last year’s, suggests his 4.37 ERA was too high, and his .316 BABIP led to a higher WHIP of 1.37. Since his strand rate remained the same, the increase in BABIP led to more baserunners who came around to score. His K/BB dropped a bit, but only from 2.36 to 2.24.

Dustin was previously diagnosed with a rotator cuff tear before it was decided he would need to undergo surgery to repair fraying in the glenoid labrum of his right shoulder. From what I have gathered, pitchers tend to resume mound throwing around seven months following such a surgery, though the rehab time could be longer. Additionally, if he experiences a problem with his rotator cuff again, he could miss the entire 2009 season. The Blue Jays expect him to be back in action in May, however. Injuries prevented both of these potential stars from taking the next step this year, so we will have another year of wondering what if, but next year will definitely be pivotal in understanding where they might be headed.