Path To Victory: Chicago Cubs

Life was good for the Cubs this year – they won 97 games, best in the National League by a comfortable margin, and essentially ran away with the NL Central. They were the only NL team to crack 800 runs scored, and only the Dodgers allowed fewer than the 671 runs they gave up. They hit, they pitched, they fielded well – they were the league’s best team and played like it all season long.

So, as they look to open their NLDS series against the Dodgers, what is the path to success that will lead the Cubs to a WS Championship?

Get Carlos Zambrano fixed

Three starts ago, Big Z threw a dominating no hitter, shutting down the Astros in a game that seemed to state loudly that his arm was fine. His next two starts were a disaster, however, as he gave up 13 runs in 6 1/3 innings. His command was gone (7 walks), he wasn’t missing bats (3 strikeouts out of 35 batters faced), and hitters were pounding the pitches they swung at (4 of the 9 hits he allowed were XBH knocks).

The Cubs need Zambrano to win it all. The most important variable for the Cubs this October is getting him pitching like the guy he’s been for the last few years. If they can’t, the odds of them holding a parade drop significantly.

Low Leverage Jeff Samardzija

His no-clue-where-the-strike-zone thing is worked well in August, when he posted a .256 BABIP, which kept runs off the board even as he put baserunners on. However, he simply couldn’t sustain that kind of performance, and he was pretty lousy in September – more walks than strikeouts with 19 of the 47 batters he faced reaching base. Velocity can be seducing, and it’s tempting to want to hand the ball to the guy who throws 98 as often as possible, but Samardzija isn’t a very good reliever right now, and the fewer important innings the Cubs give him, the better off they’ll be.

Get Fontenot in the line-up

Mike Fontenot hs had a remarkably good season as a reserve infielder who played when Mark DeRosa was playing something besides second base. His .305/.395/.514 line made him one of the Cubs best hitters, though obviously those numbers are inflated by his limited playing time. However, there’s a good case to be made that Fontenot is a better player than Kosuke Fukodome right now, and the Cubs best line-up involves moving DeRosa to right field in order to keep Fontenot in the line-up. As good as the Cubs offense is, you don’t want to be leaving runs on the bench in a playoff series, and the difference between Fontenot’s bat and Fukodome’s could end up deciding a game. Play your best players, and right now, Fontenot is one of your best players.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Isaac
15 years ago

Outside of the first point about Zambrano, which Lou can only hope and pray that Z corrects on his own, it appears that Lou understands that a) Fontenot is a better option than Fukudome and b) Samardzija is not the pitcher he was immediately following his callup, or more precisely he is the same pitcher, just minus some real good fortune. Just judging from Lou’s actions and his expressions/ antics in the dugout it appears that he knows that Samardzija isn’t really a viable option. Could he do well in the playoffs and make a name for himself like a number of other big time relievers have? Yes, but I wouldn’t bet on it. With ample off days expect to see a ton of Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol out of the pen and hopefully very little of Bob Howry, who Lou loves for no apparent reason.