Tom Gordon has had a noteworthy career, but for today, the discussion is going to focus on three players who have a connection to Tom Gordon that most do not realize. Gio Gonzalez, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain were all selected with draft picks received by their respective teams as compensation for losing Tom Gordon.

Gio Gonzalez, along with Ray Liotta, was drafted by the White Sox in the 2004 June draft after the White Sox capitalized on their one-year contact with Gordon by offering him arbitration and seeing him leave to the New York Yankees where he provided two great seasons of set up relief. Gonzalez is best known at the moment for being involved in the Nick Swisher trade, which explains why he is now with Oakland. Gonzalez has an uninspiring major league experience this season, but has fared well in Triple-A with over a strikeout an inning, though he will have to get the walks under control.

After the 2005 season, with Gordon’s contract up, instead of remaining with the Yankees as many aging but still productive veterans seem to do, Gordon instead chose to go back to closing games and signed with the Philadelphia Phillies. That signing netted the Yankees a pair of first round compensation picks, the 21st and 41st overall picks. With the 21st, the Yankees selected Ian Kennedy and grabbed Joba Chamberlain with the 41st. Both were inspired picks and have come along much faster than their relative draft position brethren.

Obviously Joba Chamberlain’s story and skills are well enough known at this point, but Ian Kennedy has seemed to lose a bit of his future luster after a seemingly poor showing this year in the bigs. However, Kennedy is still young and still has a tremendous minor league track record to his credit so patience is needed with him. We’ll see if the Yankees are willing to exercise some after missing the post season for the first time since 1993.

That all three of these hurlers came as a result of compensation for Tom Gordon (and all three also involved the Yankees) makes for a unique reason to follow their careers as the they progress from here on out.

The other night, while watching the Braves/Phillies game, I could not help but notice that, with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann getting a day off, Bobby Cox’s lineup looked terrible, registering a zero on the intimidation-ometer. Granted, McCann is still a regular even though Chipper’s days off are becoming the norm rather than the exception, but on September 22, this is the lineup Cox put out there, followed by their WPA/LI and OPS:

Josh Anderson, CF, -0.41, .649
Martin Prado, 3B, 1.10, .849
Kelly Johnson, 2B, 0.97, .799
Omar Infante, LF, -0.06, .762
Jeff Franceour, RF, -2.42, .653
Casey Kotchman, 1B, -0.17, .641
Clint Sammons, C, -0.56, .426
Brent Lillibridge, SS, -0.50, .515

Now, Kotchman’s numbers are with Atlanta only, Sammons and Lillibridge have yet to rack up 80 plate appearances, and these guys are not considered top prospects for nothing, but as a pitcher, wouldn’t you salivate over facing this batting order? Omar Infante batting cleanup? Seriously? Is that supposed to scare pitchers?

Interestingly enough, when Dave and I were discussing this, he mentioned that the Mariners recent lineups could give this one a run for its money. On the same day, September 22, against the Angels, the Mariners had this lineup:

Ichiro Suzuki, RF, 0.09, .753
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, -2.16, .661
Raul Ibanez, LF, 1.37, .856
Jose Lopez, 1B, -0.27, .752
Jeremy Reed, CF, -0.70, .673
Timothy Hulett, DH, -0.18, .624
Matthew Tuiasosopo, 3B, -0.56, .395
Luis Valbuena, 2B, -0.29, .583
Rob Johnson, C, -0.41, .190

Again, Johjima is the regular catcher over Johnson, but it isn’t as if you would be inserting someone like McCann back into the lineup. Although, compared to Johnson’s .190 OPS, Johjima’s numbers likely would look like McCann’s. The Mariners lineup has Ichiro, Ibanez, and perhaps Jose Lopez as somewhat of a threat, while the rest do not look so good. The Braves have Johnson, a surprising Prado, a Kotchman just waiting to “bust out” and an about league average Infante. So, the question is, even though these might not be the exact everyday lineups of these teams, as an opposing pitcher, which of these September 22 lineups would you rather face, and why?

Sometimes, baseball just leaves us with some inexplicable performances, such as the infamous 50 HR season by Brady Anderson. You can’t explain it – you just realize that baseball is weird sometimes, and strange things happen.

So, in that vein, let’s talk about Jerry Hairston. For his career, he’s a .260/.330/.360 hitter – your garden variety utility infielder. He has okay contact skills and a smidge of power, can play a few different positions, and can run a little bit. He’s had a rather pedestrian career, finding playing time as a role player on some not good teams, and generally just floating around the game as a warm body.

Last year, though, he fell apart. He hit .189/.249/.289 while playing in Texas – racking up 184 terrible plate appearances and generally looking like a guy who couldn’t play baseball anymore. His walks were down, his strikeouts were up, and he posted a pitiful 13.5% line drive percentage, so it’s not like he was scorching the baseball right at people. 52% of his balls in play were flyballs, and when you’re a guy without much power, that’s bad news, because those fly balls aren’t going over the wall, and the outfielders will have plenty of time to track them down. Even worse, 21% of those flyballs were of the infield variety – weak popups that are always outs.

By pretty much any standard, Hairston was one of the worst players in the game in 2007. Texas jettisoned him, and he ended up signing a minor league contract with the Reds. When injuries struck and they needed some help at the big league level, they gave him a call… and he’s had the year of his life.

Hairston is hitting .329/.389/.473. His line drive rate is now 28.2%, as he really is just crushing the baseball every time he swings. He has 25 extra base hits after totaling just 17 in 2006 and 2007 combined. He’s been worth about a win more than an average hitter in just half a season’s worth of playing time, and he’s doing it as an up the middle defender at age 32.

Last year is the type of season that ends a lot of careers – a guy with limited value turning in a terrible performance in a hitters park at age 31. There aren’t many teams that will look at that player and say “hey, he’s due for a rebound”. But Hairston has apparently decided to regress to Barry Larkin’s mean instead of his own, turning in a season that just makes you scratch your head and wonder what’s going on.

If any Reds fans have any idea why Jerry Hairston has played at an All-Star level for the last few months, I’d love to hear it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Neil Walker out of a local high school in the first round of the 2004 draft (11th overall). At the time, he was a young, promising, switch-hitting catcher. More than four years later, though, Walker is on the cusp of the Major Leagues but he has been converted to the hot corner.

The move from behind the plate really does hurt Walker’s potential quite a bit. With catchers, any type of offence is considered a bonus, as long as they play solid defence and call a good game. At third base, though, the bat is under the microscope as this position is traditionally a power position.

In five minor league seasons, Walker’s line looks like this: .273/.320/.426. That is OK, but not spectacular for a former No. 1 draft pick hoping to play third base at the Major League level, especially given that Walker hit just .242/.280/.414 in 505 at-bats during the 2008 Triple-A season. On the plus side, he did hit a career-high 16 homers and drove in 80 runs.

On the downside, he walked just 5.4% of the time, had an OPS of .697 and an ISO of .172, none of which screams impact bat. Walker will be just 24 next season but he will need to make some adjustments and get his bat going if he hopes to avoid getting left behind. Earlier this season, Pittsburgh obtained top third base prospect Andy LaRoche from the Los Angeles Dodges and he has a head start on claiming the title of third baseman of the future.

Last night, the Yankees were officially eliminated from playoff contention. For the first time since 1993, we’re going to have baseball in October and the Yankees won’t be participating. How different were things the last time New York watched the playoffs at home?

The Yankees best hitter was Mike Stanley, their best outfielder was Dion James, and their best pitcher was Jimmy Key. Spike Owen was playing shortstop and Bernie Williams was trying to prove he could play center field on a daily basis.

Chris Hoiles was the best catcher in baseball. Travis Fryman was a shortstop, Gary Sheffield was a third baseman, and the best all around young outfielders were Bernard Gilkey, Mark Whiten, and Al Martin.

Nine pitchers threw more than 250 innings, led by Greg Maddux’s 267. Alex Fernandez looked like the next great young starting pitcher. Bryan Harvey was the game’s best closer pitching on one of the worst teams in the league – the expansion Marlins, who were in their first season as an MLB team (along with Colorado).

Philip Hughes was seven years old. Tim Beckham, the kid who went first overall in the draft this past summer, was three years old.

Bobby Bonilla was the game’s highest paid player – he made $6.2 million. The Blue Jays had the highest team payroll at just over $45 million. The expansion Rockies had a payroll of $8.8 million. 10 teams had total payrolls less than $27 million – the amount Alex Rodriguez will make this year.

Baseball has gone through some huge shifts, but the Yankees playing in October were always a constant. It will be nice to have some fresh blood in there, but it’s going to be a bit weird.

On September 7th, the Pirates lost 11-6 to the San Francisco Giants. This loss dropped the Pirates record to 60-82 and officially marked the 16th consecutive season that the Pirates were to finish below .500. Appropriate then that the loss was at the hands of the Giants who signed away Barry Bonds from the Pirates in the winter between the 1992 and 1993 seasons coming off Bonds’ second MVP season and his first with an OPS over 1.000 and an OPS+ over 200.

It takes a lot of things to finish below .500 consecutively for over a decade and a half. It takes some combination of hilarious incompetent management, low payroll and bad luck. Most teams manage to escape having all three of those factors against them but a few always fall prey to it each year. It’s the Pirates who have been remarkable in falling prey to it every year. Even the Expos managed years over .500 near the end of their run in Montreal.

While not much can be done about bad luck, the Pirates have taken steps to correct the poor management and with Neal Huntington in place at GM and an expanding intelligence base in the front office, they seem to be on the right path. One aspect that they will have to evaluate is the amateur drafting strategy employed by their predecessors.

In 2004, with the 11th overall pick, the Pirates selected catcher Neil Walker passing on possibilities Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew and Phil Hughes among others. Walker has progressed steadily but slowly through the Pirates farm system, reaching Triple-A this season at age 22, but proving that he still has a ways to go offensively.

In 2005, again with the 11th overall pick, the Pirates stayed in the high school ranks tabbing outfielder Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen has followed much the same path as Neil Walker, moving steadily up through the ranks and spending the entire 2007 season in Triple-A where he posted a respectable line for a center fielder. 2006 saw the Pirates move up to the fourth overall pick, which they used to jump back in to the college ranks for righthander Brad Lincoln who tossed 24 innings for them that year and then promptly missed the entire 2007 season with Tommy John surgery.

While each of those picks were defensible in their own rights, what notable about those three drafts was the overall failure of them combined so far to produce any major league talent. The 2004-6 drafts have to date only produced a handful of unproductive at bats for Brian Bixler, Brent Lillibridge and Stephen Pearce. Three years worth of draft picks have yet to see a return. Already, Huntington has made news with his draft picks as the Pedro Alvarez mess seems to have finally come to a conclusion, but it will be interesting to see if any trends emerge from the new regime as it pertains to stocking the minors.

Mike Mussina did not have too great of a season last year. He barely surmounted the 150 innings plateau even with 27 starts and a relief appearance. He fanned just 91 hitters, a 5.39 K/9, his lowest rate since 1994. Coupled with a 2.07 BB/9, Mussina’s 2.60 K/BB was his lowest since 1993. Surrendering 188 hits in those 152 innings helped produce a career worst 1.47 WHIP. Stranding just 66% of those baserunners resulted in all time high ERA of 5.15. With numbers like that and a fastball that struggled to touch 86-87 miles per hour, the end appeared to be rapidly approaching this potential and oft-debated hall of fame candidate.

There were some good signs, however, as the hits surrendered hinged upon an unusually high .340 BABIP. Additionally, despite 5.15 ERA, his FIP was a solid 4.01, which might not be the caliber of a #1 pitcher, but definitely what a team should be looking for in a #3-#4 guy. Entering this season, the Marcel projection system saw Mussina as a 4.53 ERA/3.95 FIP pitcher with a 2.83 K/BB and a 1.38 WHIP. His numbers were projected to regress a bit, but not all the way back to the Moose from the late 90’s/early 2000’s.

With a week left in the season, Mussina has made many forget about last season’s numbers as he has been a rock for the Yankees staff. In 32 starts, he has pitched in 189.1 innings, and while he has gotten hit around a bit to the tune of 207 hits surrendered and a .326 BABIP, his WHIP has dropped to 1.25. The major reason for this is his 1.38 BB/9, which happens to be the lowest of his entire career. Coupled with a nice 6.70 K/9, Mussina’s K/BB now rests at 4.86, one of the highest in his career. The strand rate has regressed to the league average 72%, and with the reduced amount of baserunners, period, this has helped him to a 3.57 ERA. His FIP of 3.38 suggests it should be even lower.

His fastball has gotten even slower this year, as he averages around 84-86 mph on his “heater” but something noteworthy is his change of rates on balls in play. His career rate of grounders is 43%, and from 2002-2007, it ranged from 40-43%. This year, however, he is at 48%. It is very tough to discuss Mussina right now without mentioning his hall of fame candidacy, so I will leave that for the comments section below, but if he were to retire following this season, going out on top so to speak, what do you consider his chances to be? Or does he need one more season like this to cement his place in Cooperstown?

David Price made his first major league start against the Orioles and did not disappoint those who were looking to be impressed by the former #1 overall pick. He took a no-hitter into the 5th inning before running out of gas, and while his command wasn’t top notch, his stuff was still good enough to keep the runs off the board.

Price has now made three appearances for the Rays since they called him up and given Tampa Bay fans reasons for optimism. His fastball is averaging 95.1 MPH but also inducing a lot of groundballs – his early GB% is 58.8%. The hard throwing groundball pitcher group is one of the best peer groups in baseball, consisting of a bunch of Cy Young candidates (and Fausto Carmona). Being able to get groundballs while throwing hard is a terrific building block for a pitcher.

Price hasn’t been afraid to work in his slider, either, throwing it 40 percent of the time, and using it as his out pitch. It’s a good but not great pitch, and it can get slurvy at times, but it’s a terrific weapon against left-handed hitters. We see that, so far, lefties haven’t been able to touch Price, going 3-18 with a walk and six strikeouts. All three hits have been singles, so LHBs are hitting .167/.211/.167 against him.

Given his stuff, we’d expect him to dominate same handed hitters, but the lack of a change-up makes him somewhat vulnerable to right-handed batters. In general, we’d expect a pitcher who throws exclusively a fastball/slider to show a larger than average platoon split, and even in the small sample of his ML performance to date, that’s been true – RHBs are 5 for 24 with a couple of extra base hits and only three strikeouts. The slider just isn’t nearly the weapon against RHB that it is against LHB, so Price has to rely more on in play outs to keep righties off the bases.

Because of his early success and his pedigree, there will probably be some talk that the Rays should use Price as their #4 starter in the playoffs, supplanting both Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine. I’ve even heard Jim Callis, who I have a lot of respect for, suggest this very thing, but based on his current two pitch repertoire, his ability to hold down good RH hitters is still a work in progress. Price could be a dominant force coming out of the pen, where he could be selectively used to maximize his ability to shut down LHBs.

Price’s talent is certainly there, and I have few doubts that he’ll eventually settle in as a quality starting pitcher, but that can wait until next year. For right now, the Rays should see Price for what he can be the next month – a fantastic LH relief pitcher.

Things may not have gone as planned in the Bronx this season, but the New York Yankees club has received some encouraging bullpen contributions from some young pitchers.

Jose Veras, 27, may be a little older than the typical rookie, but he had just 21.1 innings of Major League experience before the 2008 season began. The right-hander has been solid throughout the season by allowing 50 hits and 27 walks in 56 innings. He has also fanned 60 batters. Veras does have a few things to work on for next season, including lowering his walk totals (4.34 BB/9) and keeping the ball in the park a little bit better (1.13 HR/9).

Edwar Ramirez, 27, received a lot of press last season after posting some ridiculous minor league numbers, thanks to a plus-plus change-up. The right-hander found the Major Leagues to be a little more challenging (8.14 ERA in 21 innings in 2007) but he settled in nicely in 2008. In 54 innings this season, Ramirez has allowed 43 hits and 24 walks. He has also struck out 61 batters. Like Veras, Ramirez needs to keep the walks down (3.98 BB/9) and avoid the long ball (1.16 HR/9). He was also helped by a BABIP of .281.

Regardless of how well Veras and Ramirez duplicate their 2008 seasons in 2009, both players have turned out to be wise acquisitions by the Yankees (a club that does not receive enough credit for its scouting). Veras was signed as a minor league free agent after spending time with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers organizations. Ramirez, originally a signee with the Angels, was found in an independent baseball league.

Something tells me, though, that these two players have more left in the tank.

Much of the talk this week surrounding the Yankees has centered on the final game at Yankee Stadium. It is natural for nostalgic love to kick in when something widely considered an historical monument reaches its last legs, but what many have not discussed thus far is how one of the players who calls the stadium home is in the midst of his best season to date. Yes, Mariano Rivera, the 39-yr old closer for the Yankees, the best postseason closer of all time and likely the best overall closer as well, is putting the finishing touches on a masterpiece of a season.

Someone his age, who throws virtually one pitch, will not usually improve as the years pile on, but what he has done this year is nothing short of remarkable. And, for the record, I will be able to show just how great this year is without ever mentioning his saves total. In 68.1 innings, Rivera has given up a measly 41 hits, just 4 of which are home runs. Get ready for his other controllable skills. He has struck out 74 hitters and issued just 6 free passes! 6! That is a 12.33 K/BB ratio. His WHIP is 0.69, and when you add in his two hit batsmen it does not get much higher.

With an 87.6% LOB, which could very well be sustainable for a closer of his ilk, Mo has an ERA of just 1.45 this year. His FIP suggests it should be around 2.06, but still, 2.06 is not too shabby either. His 1996 season was quite dominant as well, but he was still setting up John Wetteland at that juncture. Since 1997, when Rivera became the full-time closer, he has never been better than right now, as he is posting highs/lows in ERA, FIP, WHIP, BAA, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and LOB.

Looking at his win based metrics, his 4.36 WPA ranks second in baseball amongst relievers to Brad Lidge, who by all accounts is also having a fantastic season. Rivera leads all relievers in WPA/LI, however. WPA is a better stat to look at for closers primarily because they are pitching in high leverage situations, and they are going to be judged by how well they perform in like situations. It would still depend on how often the closer gets to appear and in what situations, but suffice it to say, Rivera has been the best closer in the AL this year (sorry K-Rod), and only Brad Lidge is going to give him a run for his money in the entire sport. This may be the last year of Yankee Stadium, but its beloved closer is going out in style, producing the best closed season of his career… oddly enough, it will be the first time his team misses the playoffs since he took over the reigns.