Teams either in a pennant race or that believe they are in a pennant race tend to make moves to bolster some area of their roster in which a perceived weakness exists. The Brewers landed CC Sabathia. The Cubs traded for Rich Harden. The Mets went for smaller upgrades like Luis Ayala and Fernando Tatis, believing that those underachieving would eventually regress. The Astros turned to the likes of Randy Wolf and Latroy Hawkins. While the Cardinals, as Matthew noted last week, stood pat, the Phillies attempted to fix a problem in their starting rotation by bringing in Joe Blanton.

Now, on paper, Blanton is nowhere near as impressive as Sabathia or Harden, but Phillies fans and the local media justified the trade based on the idea that Blanton is an “innings eater.” He apparently would pitch well enough to keep the team in the game, and long enough to avoid having to overuse a bullpen that the team has been reliant upon. I’m not sure exactly what eating innings means, though. If it means that Blanton would get the definition of a quality start, IE, 6 IP and 3 ER, or that he would go for 7 IP and give up 3-4 ER, that at least sounds plausible and could very well be positive for a team with an offense like the Phillies.

He has been giving up the 3-4 runs consistently, except they aren’t coming in 6-7 innings. Rather, Blanton has not exactly been eating innings in red pinstripes, as he has gone for 59.2 total innings in 11 starts, an average of just over 5 IP/GS. Entering yesterday’s action against the Brewers, just 4 of his 10 starts with the Phillies involved pitching 6 or 7 innings. Interspersed throughout were appearances of 2 IP, 5 IP, 5 IP, 5.2 IP, 4 IP, and 5 IP. When someone advertised with only one real positive trait suddenly fails to exhibit that trait, well, you can imagine what that person looks like to fans.

Most of Blanton’s issues have been chalked up as control problems, as he throws plenty of pitches, is walking more hitters, and is running deeper counts. His BB/9 in Oakland earlier on was 2.48, but it has been 4.39 while on the Phillies. His K/9 has risen to over one more batter per, as well, but not enough to counteract the increase in free passes. All told, his 4.53 ERA/5.36 FIP for the Phillies have not exactly killed them in the standings or severely hindered their playoff chances, but they have not done much to help. Yesterday, Blanton made arguably his most important start of the season, going 7 IP and giving up 3 ER to the Brewers in the first game of a doubleheader that eventually put the Phillies and Brewers into a wild card tie.

He has been just about the definition of average with the Phillies, as his partial season sports a 0.05 WPA/LI, but the fact that he was brought in to “fix” a situation makes his numbers and performance seem much worse. He has not lived up to expectations as an “innings eater” consistently and is nothing more than a fourth starter, but he has kept Adam Eaton out of the rotation, so at least he has that. With several Phillies starters making appearances on short-rest recently, they are going to need Blanton to build upon his performance yesterday or else this will end up being a carbon copy of the 2001-2006 seasons, where the Phillies have great personnel, and plenty of talent, but end up a few games short of the promised land.

23,441 people showed up in Milwaukee to watch the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros play last night. Those fans who showed up to watch two out of market clubs battle were rewarded by a gem of a performance from Carlos Zambrano, who tossed the second no hitter of the season and the first by a Cubs pitcher in 36 years.

He faced one batter more than the minimum, walking Michael Bourn – one of the worst hitters in the game – and hitting Hunter Pence with a pitch. But beyond those short command lapses, he was dominating. He stuck out 10 Houston batters and, more impressively, only let two balls out of the infield – Migeul Tejada flew out to right fielder Mark DeRosa to end the first inning and Geoff Blum flew out to DeRosa to start the eighth. He got 13 groundball outs and an infield fly, so even when the Astros were making contact, they weren’t doing much with it.

The results are obvious, but for fun, let’s take a look at the process. Here’s a graph of each of Big Z’s pitches with velocity on the vertical axis and the pitch count on the horizontal axis.

One thing should really stand out – he threw fastballs on nearly every pitch. Look at all those dots up around the 95 marker, and how few there are below 90, especially at the start of the game. It was just one fastball after another, overpowering Houston with heat.

All told, of the 110 pitches Zambrano threw, Pitch F/x classified 86 of them as fastballs, plus another three sinkers and four cutters, which are basically just variances of the fastball. If you include those, he threw 93 fastballs, nine change-ups, and eight sliders.

85 percent of his pitches were fastballs of some sort, and just 15 percent could be called an off-speed pitch. I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the advantage a pitcher can get from mixing his pitches and keeping hitters off balance, but Zambrano took the exact opposite approach, throwing an overpowering fastball and not backing off of his best pitch. It obviously worked.

Congratulations to Zambrano on his first career no hitter, and to the 23,441 who had the good sense to drive to the park.

One of my favorite players in baseball is (used to be?) Chris Snelling because of his reckless style of play, the nifty accent and solid plate discipline skills. That fandom of Snelling came with a price, namely waiting around for the majority of the year while Snelling rehabbed his latest injury. It may be partly because of that experience that I am somewhat partial to talented players that just cannot stay healthy. One such player is Rocco Baldelli.

Baldelli was the 6th overall pick in the 2000 draft in between the Nationals pick of Justin Wayne and the Rockies Matt Harrington. After a poor first full year spend entirely at A ball, Baldelli sped through the minors and broke camp with the Rays for good in 2003 and posted a 99 OPS+. He improved the next year, cutting down on his strikeouts and posting a 100 OPS+.

Baldelli’s injury woes began during the offseason before 2005 when he tore his anterior cruciate ligament playing baseball over the winter. During his rehab, he went on to injure his elbow which eventually was deemed serious enough to warrant Tommy John surgery, making 2005 officially a wiped out season and putting the start of 2006 in jeopardy as well.

Sure enough, Baldelli wouldn’t be able to return until June of 2006 but made good with what time he had, matching his career high in homeruns (16) in 44 fewer games and hope returned that Baldelli could return to building himself a successful career. That hope wouldn’t last long as Baldelli strained his hamstring during the 2007 Spring Training and the injury would linger, sapping his offensive output before finally shutting down his year in May.

During that offseason, Baldelli began feeling extremely fatigued after even minor rehab workouts. After extensive medical tests, Rocco was diagnosed with an unknown metabolic or mitochondrial disorder which put his baseball career in doubt. After more rounds of tests, Baldelli was put on a combination of medications that for the time being allowed him to resume playing. After two months of rehab in the minor leagues, Baldelli made his 2008 debut on August 10th at Seattle.

Amazingly, granted the small sample size (20 games so far), Baldelli has picked up where he left out with a 116 wOBA+ and a 139 OPS+. It’s been a season of feel good stories including that of the entire Tampa Bay team, but among them, there’s hardly a better story than Rocco Baldelli.

Francisco Rodriguez secured his 57th save of the season last night, tying Bobby Thigpen’s record set in 1990. Much has and will be made when Rodriguez breaks the record and that’s unfortunate because it’s one of the worst statistics in baseball and using it cheapens what Francisco has accomplished as a premier relief pitcher for the past half-dozen years.

That’s not to say that Rodriguez doesn’t deserve the record. He has the highest entering leverage index among relievers with a reasonable sample size so he’s certainly been earning at least most of his saves. It’s just that the save statistic is borderline meaningless, a view never better illustrated than the situation in which Rodriguez earned his record tying 57th save. Rodriguez entered the game in the top of 9th with zero outs and two baserunners on. He had a four run cushion however and proceeded to yield two line drives and a pair of groundballs. For that, Rodriguez took one step closer to breaking the single season saves record and further helping himself this winter as he enters the free agent market.

Rodriguez built his reputation based on his phenomenal run through the 2002 postseason as the Angels got past the Giants for the World Series crown. He certainly didn’t let up afterward with a solid enough 2003 season, but he really exploded and reached his peak in the 2004 year as he cut his homerun rate and spiked his strikeout rate to just shy of 37%, a fantastic figure. The 2005 season was a bit of a fall back, but he managed to rebound in 2006. Since then however, it’s been a steady decline. Which is not to say Rodriguez isn’t good, he clearly is, just that he’s been getting gradually worse.

His ability to throw strikes is diminishing, down to near 60% now and he’s missing fewer bats than ever before while posting the highest walk rate, the highest hit by pitch rate and the lowest strike out rates of his career. Francisco Rodriguez has been a fantastic pitcher since he emerged on the scene in late 2002, but he looks clearly to be on a decline and he’ll be coming off a (meaningless) record-setting season. It’s a recipe for an overvalued contract that’s not likely to bear much fruit for whichever team signs on the dotted line.

When we talk about pitchers, we often refer to a pitcher’s FIP, which builds an expected ERA based on a pitchers walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run rate. In general, FIP works a lot better than a stat like ERA, because it removes a lot of the noise from results that pitcher’s don’t have a lot of control over.

However, one of those components is a bit more fickle than the other two, and it can have a huge effect on a pitcher’s performance – that component, of course, is the home run rate. Let’s take Roy Oswalt, for instance.

In March through May, he made 12 starts, pitched 76 innings, and had a respectable 20/55 BB/K rate. However, he gave up 16 longballs during that stretch, so his FIP was a downright poor 5.35, which nearly matched his 5.45 ERA. Those home runs were killing him, even though he was commanding the strike zone fairly well.

Since June kicked in, though, no one’s been able to take Oswalt out of the park. In his last 17 starts, he’s thrown 114 2/3 IP, posted a better 23/95 BB/K rate, and cut his home runs allowed down to 5. He’s certainly pitching better, as the increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks show, but five home runs in almost 115 innings? That’s nutty. As such, his FIP for that stretch is 2.93.

Just so you can see how much the home run rate affects FIP, if we change Oswalt’s HR rate in his first 12 starts to match what he’s done in his last 17 starts, his FIP drops from 5.35 to 3.31 – in other words, that difference in the home run rate is worth two runs a game. As much as we love to evaluate pitchers by walks and strikeouts, home runs have a massive effect on their performances, and a pitcher can succeed in MLB simply by keeping the ball in the park.

However, because home run rate is far less of a skill than walk or strikeout rates, most pitcher’s can’t succeed for a long team just through HR suppression. That’s why BB/K rates are a better predictor of future success than HR rates, even though HR rates have more of an impact on run scoring.

Just a little reminder that while FIP is a nice tool, if you see a guy running strong based on a remarkable HR suppression streak, it’s not as likely to be real as if he’s doing it with no walks and lots of strikeouts.

It’s not often that a player with Chris Carter’s talent spends time with three clubs in the span of two weeks. With 39 dingers, the hulking infielder tied for second overall in minor league home runs in 2008 while playing for Oakland’s High-A ball affiliate in Stockton.

Carter, now 21, was originally drafted in the 15th round of the 2005 draft out of a Las Vegas high school. He spent three seasons in the White Sox organization before being sent to Arizona on Dec. 3, 2007 for fellow slugger Carlos Quentin. Eleven days later, Carter was part of the bounty that netted Arizona pitcher Dan Haren from the Oakland Athletics.

In his first full season in the minors in 2007, after two Rookie ball campaigns, Carter slugged 25 homers, drove in 93 runs and hit .291/.383/.522. His power numbers took another step forward this season with the Oakland organization, including an ISO increase from .231 to .310, while some of his other numbers took a step back. Carter hit .259/.361/.569 with 156 strikeouts and 77 walks in 506 at-bats. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in 2007 to 30.8% in 2008, while his walk rate remained roughly the same. Carter’s batting average was a bit of a disappointment but his BABIP was .296, compared to .336 in 2007.

Oakland has another first base prospect, Sean Doolittle, who played most of the season on the same squad as Carter, before a late-season promotion to Double-A. Carter spent time at third base to accommodate his teammate but his defence is below average at both third base (41 games, 14 errors) and first base.

Doolittle, a slick fielder, is not a classic slugger like Carter and is more of a hitter in the mold of John Olerud or Lyle Overbay. The two players should open 2009 on the same team again and it will be interesting to see which player takes the next big step needed to secure a future role on the big league club.

Pitch Type Abbreviations:

FB – fastball
SL – slider
CT – cutter
CB – curveball
CH – changeup
SF – split-fingered
KN – knuckleball
XX – unidentified
PO – pitch out

About split-fingered pitches: Split fingered pitches include splitters and forkballs.

About the percentages: All pitch type percentages for identified pitches are calculated as a percentage of only identifiable pitches. Unidentified pitches are calculated as a percentage of all pitches.

About the velocity: Next to the percentage in parentheses is the average velocity for the pitch type. If it reads 00.0, it means there is not enough data to calculate the average velocity.

About the leaderboards: On the leaderboards, pitch type percentage and pitch type velocity are broken out into two separate columns for each pitch. The percentage columns are labeled “%” and the velocity columns are labeled “v”.

About the data: All pitch type data is collected and provided by Baseball Info Solutions.

Over the last thirty days, no starting pitcher has been even close to touching Roy Oswalt’s 2.48 WPA/LI. Derek Lowe, as great as he has been lately, is still a full win lower. Third on that list, however, is Francisco Liriano, the Twins lefty phenom who underwent surgery and made his return to the big leagues this year. In his early outings, he simply stunk. He wasn’t striking hitters out, walked many, and gave up plenty of hits. This earned him a demotion wherein he could hopefully, for the sake of Twins fans, work on his kinks and get that confidence and swagger back.

Prior to this recent 30-day stretch, he had made 5 starts, for just 22 innings, in which 24 hits and 16 earned runs were surrendered, along with 18 walks and 17 strikeouts. Recently, however, he made 6 starts, for 40 innings, giving up just 28 hits and 6 earned runs, walking no more than 7 and fanning 34. With a WHIP under 0.90, an ERA of 1.35, a K/BB nearing 5.0, Liriano has earned produced a 1.32 WPA/LI in these six starts. This more than made up for the poor performance early on as his seasonal wins added have gone from -0.18 to 1.14.

He may have been dominant lately, but I’m not sure I would say he is 100% “back” yet. His K/9 is 7.40—7.65 in this six-game stretch—way down from the 10.71 in 2006. His BB/9 has risen about a full batter per. Instead of 2005-06, where he was clearly a groundball pitcher instead of a flyball pitcher, his current GB/FB is 43%/41%, resulting in a 1.05 GB/FB. On top of that, his HR/FB is a very low 5.3%, meaning he has seen a vast increase in flyballs but is keeping them in the yard at a lucky or likely unsustainable pace.

Though he is still likely not himself following the surgery, he is only throwing 90-91 mph, instead of 94-95 mph on his fastball, while his slider has been around 83 mph instead of 87-88 mph. He may be effective right now, and his numbers may look like the Liriano we fell in love with two years ago, but he seems to be quite a bit away from reclaiming the throne as “the next Johan.” It definitely could happen as his body gets more comfortable, but right now, he is a different version of Liriano, inferior to what we glimpsed in 2005-06, but still effective.

As you’ve probably heard, the Dodgers offense is currently being carried by an outfielder in the midst of one of the best offensive stretches of his career. He’s absolutely crushing the ball, and his surge the last month has been one of the main reasons why LA has been able to overtake the stumbling Diamondbacks for first place in the N.L. West. Every time you turn around, he’s getting another big hit or rounding the bases after a home run.

Oh, you think I’m talking about Manny Ramirez? He’s okay, but I was referring to Andre Ethier. Check out their respective performances the last 30 days:

Manny: .362/.467/.745, 94 AB, 1.42 WPA/LI
Ethier: .396/.462/.802, 106 AB, 2.13 WPA/LI

Ethier has 23 extra base hits in 26 games – Manny has 16 extra base hits in 28 games. There’s no doubt that Manny is hitting the ball well, but there’s no argument that he’s outplaying his teammate right now. Ethier’s just outhitting him, despite get approximately 0% of the recognition. Some BBWAA voters are even talking about casting their NL MVP vote for Ramirez. I shouldn’t be surprised, I guess – these same people tried to give Shannon Stewart an MVP award, after all. However, there’s just nothing that supports the idea that Ramirez is even the best outfielder on his own team, or that his performance is the one that actually matters.

If the MVP award, as the BBWAA defines it, is actually “best performance in August and September by a team going to the playoffs”, Andre Ethier is their guy. Will he even get a single top ten vote? I doubt it. The writers will be too busy justifying their votes for Manny or Delgado.

Reason #134,324,986 why there’s no reason to care about the official postseason awards.

On July 7th, Rich Harden and CC Sabathia had been traded to Chicago and Milwaukee respectively without yet having made a start. At the time, the Cubs were at 53-36 and leading the division by 3.5 games over then 2nd place St Louis who were at 50-40 a half game ahead of the Brewers 49-40. Those three teams were 1-3 in terms of best records in the National League.

Since that date, Rich Harden has pitched 54 innings, striking out 75 and walking just 18 with two hit batsmen and six home runs allowed totaling a 2.95 xFIP and a 2.72 tRA. Meanwhile, CC Sabathia has logged an impressive 102 innings with a matching 102 strikeouts and 21 walks alongside three hit batters and five home runs allowed. That’s good for a 2.94 xFIP and a 2.50 tRA.

During this same time period, the Cardinals have given nine starts to Joel Pineiro and 12 starts to Braden Looper. Not exactly up to the same caliber as the other teams and the Cardinals have struggled as a result. Since that date, the Cubs have compiled a 34-22 record and widened their lead in the division by a game, now over second place Milwaukee who have gone an impressive 34-23 themselves.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have only been able to hold serve at .500 with a 28-27 mark and have since fallen behind the Houston Astros in the NL Central, who made their own mid season pitching acquisition in Randy Wolf who has useful on his own in addition to helping keep Shawn Chacon away from the rotation. There was plenty of criticism of the Cardinals for not making a significant trade at the deadline because it was thought they wouldn’t have the horses to stay in the race. This time around, it appears the critics were right.