Liriano Regaining Form?

Over the last thirty days, no starting pitcher has been even close to touching Roy Oswalt’s 2.48 WPA/LI. Derek Lowe, as great as he has been lately, is still a full win lower. Third on that list, however, is Francisco Liriano, the Twins lefty phenom who underwent surgery and made his return to the big leagues this year. In his early outings, he simply stunk. He wasn’t striking hitters out, walked many, and gave up plenty of hits. This earned him a demotion wherein he could hopefully, for the sake of Twins fans, work on his kinks and get that confidence and swagger back.

Prior to this recent 30-day stretch, he had made 5 starts, for just 22 innings, in which 24 hits and 16 earned runs were surrendered, along with 18 walks and 17 strikeouts. Recently, however, he made 6 starts, for 40 innings, giving up just 28 hits and 6 earned runs, walking no more than 7 and fanning 34. With a WHIP under 0.90, an ERA of 1.35, a K/BB nearing 5.0, Liriano has earned produced a 1.32 WPA/LI in these six starts. This more than made up for the poor performance early on as his seasonal wins added have gone from -0.18 to 1.14.

He may have been dominant lately, but I’m not sure I would say he is 100% “back” yet. His K/9 is 7.40—7.65 in this six-game stretch—way down from the 10.71 in 2006. His BB/9 has risen about a full batter per. Instead of 2005-06, where he was clearly a groundball pitcher instead of a flyball pitcher, his current GB/FB is 43%/41%, resulting in a 1.05 GB/FB. On top of that, his HR/FB is a very low 5.3%, meaning he has seen a vast increase in flyballs but is keeping them in the yard at a lucky or likely unsustainable pace.

Though he is still likely not himself following the surgery, he is only throwing 90-91 mph, instead of 94-95 mph on his fastball, while his slider has been around 83 mph instead of 87-88 mph. He may be effective right now, and his numbers may look like the Liriano we fell in love with two years ago, but he seems to be quite a bit away from reclaiming the throne as “the next Johan.” It definitely could happen as his body gets more comfortable, but right now, he is a different version of Liriano, inferior to what we glimpsed in 2005-06, but still effective.