With the Red Sox forcing a game 7 last night with their win against the Tampa Bay Rays, I thought it’d be fun see just how similar this series looks to last year’s ALCS when the Red Sox played the Indians.

A couple years ago I combined all the Win Probability charts of the 2004 ALCS. Here’s what the 2007 and 2008 ALCS look like when superimposed. 2008 is in red and 2007 is in black.

The Rays have thus far had a much better chance at winning the series than the Indians ever had. In the top of the 7th with Rays runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, they had a 99.3% chance of winning game 5. The Indians in 2007 had, at their best, a 57.9% chance of winning game 5, and never had better than a 50% chance to win game 6 and game 7.

When compared to the 2004 ALCS, the Yankees at one point had an 83.8% chance of clinching in game 4, and then an 87.8% chance of clinching in game 5.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Fourteen: Arizona Diamondbacks

A sad season for Arizona fans as they saw their team race off to a 9-2 start and if they had simply played .500 ball for the remaining 151 games they would have at least tied Los Angeles’ 84 wins. Their defense was mediocre to below average, which makes their 3rd overall rank in runs allowed from BaseRuns all the more a praise to their pitching. Besides some below average defense, the position players also mounted a below average attack at the plate, ranking just 19th in runs scored.

Eric Byrnes had been a stealing machine since arriving in Arizona with 75 steals against just 10 caught stealings between 2006 and 2007. Signed to a three-year extension in August of 2007, Byrnes had a rough 2008 with both bad performance and numerous injury problems. The Diamondbacks bailed on Carlos Quentin which proved to be a tough bit to swallow later on as their offense constantly struggled and Quentin matured to contend for an MVP title in the American League. While Stephen Drew regressed in a troubling fashion in the walks and strikeouts department dropping his isolated discipline from .075 down to .042, his power took off adding over 30 extra base hits in just 44 more plate appearances.

Arizona dealt off their 2007 closer in Jose Valverde but still managed to improve their bullpen, namely from improvements by Brandon Medders and Jailen Peguero and the addition of Chad Qualls, who came over from Houston in the Jose Valverde trade.

It was the rotation though that kept Arizona from being just another bottom dwelling western team. The 2008 Diamondbacks dumped Livan Hernandez, added Dan Haren via trade with Oakland and would get a mostly full season from Randy Johnson. Along with the steady Brandon Webb, those three formed a terrific trio, each individual among the best 20 starters in baseball. Doug Davis was no slough either, coming back from his own health problems to pitch like an above average starter. As the fourth best starter, above average usually means you’ve built yourself quite a staff.

How 2009 fares for Arizona depends on whether they retain Randy Johnson and if their young hitters can take a few more steps forward. The Giants and Padres probably don’t pose a threat to the division in 2009 so they’ll just have to keep an eye out for a re-emerging Colorado club from behind and keep an eye forward on Los Angeles.

As we head into free agency, one of the things we can be pretty sure of that pitching is going to be expensive. Even when you’d think teams would learn from examples such as what the Cardinals were able to do with Kyle Lohse (signed for $4.25 million just before the season started, turned in a solid season), that same team turns around and gives Lohse $41 million to be the exact same guy they got for 1/10th of that the year before.

Free agent pitching is the bubble that just won’t burst. Mike Hampton couldn’t bust it. Barry Zito couldn’t bust it. Carlos Silva couldn’t bust it. Teams are going to spend a lot of money on mediocre pitching, leaving the smart teams to mostly look elsewhere.

So, smart teams, I’ve got a suggestion. Call the Tigers about Nate Robertson.

Yes, the same Nate Robertson who just posted a 6.35 ERA for the Tigers last year, and is owed $17 million over the remaining two seasons on his contract. I know, $7 million this year and $10 million next year for a guy coming off the worst year of his career doesn’t sound like a wise investment, but there might not be a better buy-low candidate this winter.

Here are Robertson’s FIPs since 2004, when he became a full-time starter:

2004: 4.52
2005: 4.73
2006: 4.72
2007: 4.65
2008: 4.99

Yes, 2008 was his worst year, but by a pretty small margin. A .3 FIP difference over his career norms would translate out to about seven extra runs per season. A seven run dropoff is far more marginal than what the perception of Robertson’s collapse is, considering how bad his results were in 2008.

Robertson pitched mostly the same as he’s always pitched, but due to a remarkably worse defense (importing Miguel Cabrera and moving Brandon Inge off third will do that to you), his results made it look like his skills fell apart. In reality, he’s still the same league average starter he’s always been, and in this market, $17 million over two years is a bargain for a league average starter.

The Graduate: Chris Davis | Born: March 1986 | 1B/3B

Chris Davis‘ big 2007 certainly wasn’t a fluke. He thrived in 2008 at every level he visited and made his MLB debut at the age of 22. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Davis hit .333/.386/.643 with 23 homers and 73 RBI in just 77 games. In the Majors, the slugger hit .285/.331/.549 with 17 homers (with a .265 ISO) in 295 at-bats. The downside to Davis’ game (aside from his defence at third base), and the reason why he won’t keep hitting above .270 constantly, is his poor strikeout and walk rates. Davis walked just 6.5 percent of the time, with a strikeout rate just below 30 percent.

The Riser: Tommy Hunter | Born: July 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Who had the better breakout season, Tommy Hunter or Derek Holland? You could make a compelling case for either pitcher but Hunter had success at a higher level than Holland, so he gets the nod here. Hunter was a 2007 supplemental first round pick out of college and is seen by many as a future closer for a number of reasons, including his mound demeanor. Regardless, he spent 2008 pitching in the starting rotation and played at four levels – including a three-game stop in the Majors where he was roughed up. Hunter has a four-pitch mix, although he relied mainly on his fastball and curveball. During his minor league stint in 2008, Hunter struggled to strike out batters in Double-A and Triple-A after posting a rate of 7.71 in nine A-ball starts. His rate at Double-A was just 4.82 and it was 4.75 at Triple-A.

The Tumbler: Eric Hurley | Born: September 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Eric Hurley was rated by Baseball America as the third-best prospect in the Rangers system coming into 2008, but he struggled. His struggles can be partially blamed on the shoulder inflammation that sidelined him in mid-season. In 13 Triple-A starts, the right-hander allowed 86 hits in 74.2 innings and posted rates of 3.50 BB/9, 8.68 K/9 and 1.81 HR/9. In five MLB starts, Hurley allowed 26 hits in 24.2 innings, with rates of 3.28 BB/9, 4.74 K/9 and 1.82 HR/9. He has struggled at Triple-A for two straight seasons and gives up far too many home runs. For a pitcher who averages out at 90 mph with his fastball, he’s going to have to work down in the zone more effectively.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Joe Wieland | Born: January 1990 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Despite having one of the best minor league systems entering into the 2008 season, the Rangers organization increased its embarrassment of riches with a group of 2008 prospects that had very impressive debuts. Joe Wieland, at the age of 18, posted a 1.44 ERA in Rookie Ball, while allowing 32 hits in 43.1 innings. He posted rates of 1.65 BB/9 and 8.45 K/9. Wieland also allowed just two home runs. He has a three-pitch mix with solid command and has the potential to add velocity to his fastball, which currently tops out between 91-92 mph.

The ’09 Sleeper: Taylor Teagarden | Born: December 1983 | Catcher

I have to admit that I am a Taylor Teagarden junkie. I thought he was the best college catcher in the 2005 draft – and that was before I realized he could hit a little bit too. Teagarden was an excellent defensive catcher in college – and still is, although injuries have taken a little bit of shine off those abilities. He suffered through more injuries in 2008 and struggled to hit for average in Triple-A, but thrived upon his promotion to the Majors. In 47 at-bats, Teagarden hit .319/.396/.809 with six home runs. The catcher has always struck out a ton, so his batting average is going to suffer at the Major League level but he should be able to constantly hit in the .240-.260 range with a bunch of homers and above-average defence.

Up Next: The Atlanta Braves

Our look at the free agent class of 2009, split by position, continues as we venture over to first base, where Albert Pujols calls home. There are eight free agent first basemen available this offseason, but many more questions exist regarding these players than certainties. The only certainty, in fact, is that Mark Teixeira is the cream of the crop, and far more attractive (in a baseball sense) than any of his compadres. In fact, after him, the next youngest players are five years his senior. And of those players ranging from ages 34-38, a couple may be kept via options in their contract, and those remaining look more like backup pieces or potential new members for AARP than likely contributors to a franchise. Here is the list:

Name                   Age       G             Slash      WPA/LI
Mark Teixeira           29     157    .308/.410/.552        4.69
Richie Sexson           34      96    .221/.321/.382       -0.61
Sean Casey              34      69    .322/.381/.392       -0.15
Doug Mientkiewicz       35     125    .277/.374/.379        0.27
Kevin Millar            37     145    .234/.323/.394       -0.85
Carlos Delgado          37     159    .271/.353/.518        3.00
Tony Clark              37     108    .225/.359/.318       -0.18
Jason Giambi            38     145    .247/.373/.502        2.66

Giambi, the elder statesman of the group, has a 22 million dollar option on his contract for next season. The Yankees bringing him back is largely contingent on whether or not they ink Mark Teixeira to a big deal, which they can and should do. If Tex ends up in another uniform, one more year of Giambi would not really hurt anything, as he is still very productive and still hit 32 home runs with an OPS above .850 this past season. His BABIP was .257, which should call for regression, however, his BABIPs in 2006 and 2007 were .251 and .264, so perhaps this year’s number is more normal than it seems.

Teixeira, as mentioned, is the cream of the crop. His ability to get on base and hit for power are fantastic, and he is one of the best fielding first basemen in baseball. AKA, he is the total package, and at just 29 years old, looks primed for a big 5-6 year deal. Last season his OBP/SLG was .400/.563; this season, .410/.552. He hit 33 home runs and 41 doubles, was extremely durable, and his +24 at first base led the position this year in fielding.

Delgado has a 12 million dollar option on his contract that the Mets should almost certainly exercise given that he carried the team on his shoulders for the second half of the season. His 38 home runs and 32 doubles are even more impressive when it is remembered how poorly he performed early on. He takes pride in his defense, but this was a down year in that category. After posting a -4 and +1 in 2006 and 2007, he fell to -15 this year, one of the worst at the position. It is unclear whether this was a fluke or a sign of things to come, but if he can hit 35+ home runs with an OPS above .850 for the Mets next season, he will be worth all of that 12 million dollars.

Sexson is an interesting case, because his career entering 2007 looked great. He hit a ton of home runs, showed an ability to get on base despite striking out a lot, and at 32 years old, had at least a few more good seasons left in the tank. He also looked to be around the league average defensively. His 2007, however, was disastrous, as his fielding dropped to -15, and his slash line looked worse than Michael Bourn’s from 2008. A .217 BABIP can carry most of the blame for that, but even with a regression to .275 in 2008, Sexson only managed a .221/.321/.382 line with 12 home runs in 96 games. A line like that might be okay for a defensive replacement with occasional starting duty, but not for an everyday starting first baseman. He could easily ink a 2-yr deal given his reputation from pre-2007, but a safer bet would be an incentives-laden contract.

Aside from these four, we are left with Millar, Mientkiewicz, Clark, and Casey. Clark should probably retire at this point, as even though he still possesses the ability to get on base, his power has diminished over the last couple of seasons, and he is not that big of a threat off the bench. He could provide veteran leadership for another season, but, if anything, I see him as a mid-season signing somewhere and nothing more. Mientkiewicz is still a very solid defender, but his offense is not good enough to merit a full-time starting job somewhere. In the past, the Pirates would sign a guy like him to be their starting first basemen, so hopefully they can show they have some brains now and realize he is better suited to be a late innings replacement with occasional starts, and nothing more.

Casey is only 34, but he seems like he is 38 or 39 given his position on the bench over the last couple of years. A .368 BABIP helped massage this year’s statistics, accrued in limited action, but again, he is much better suited to come off the bench at this juncture of his career. Millar seems like a great clubhouse guy, and that could earn him some money and playing time next season, but like Clark, he should be looking towards retirement. He still managed to hit 20 home runs and 25 doubles, but he should not be the starting first baseman for any team serious about contending.

What an incredible night in Boston. Scott Kazmir got the starting nod for Tampa ahead of James Shields for some reasons relating to James Shields pitching at home and Scott Kazmir avoiding a particular home plate umpire. The switch caused some doubt in the minds of a few media members, but Joe Maddon would come up aces with the decision. Kazmir’s performance is likely to be forgotten with the late game fireworks, but his six shutout innings allowing just two hits and three walks while punching out seven.

Daisuke Matsuzaka who has walked a tight rope of good fortune all season long slipped off the edge tonight surrendering home runs to B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria and saw himself out of the game after four frames trailing 5-0. As good as those three hitters were for the Rays tonight, along with Bartlett and Iwamura before them, the five through eight hitters for Tampa went 0-15 with just a lone walk. The lack of balance in the lineup hurt Tampa’s ability to sustain rallies later in the game when their lead started to slip away.

On Boston’s side, they were held scoreless as previously mentioned through six, but a long top of the 7th for Tampa, which saw Boston bring in Jonathan Papelbon, ensured that Kazmir wouldn’t come back out for the bottom half. It did give Tampa a pair of runs, making it 7-0 and at one point during that inning, Tampa’s win expectancy stood at 99.4%. Grant Balfour seemed like the right choice for the seventh, but a single-single-homerun stretch with two outs and one on netted four runs for the Red Sox and brought the game to 7-4.

There were four key mistakes that I think swung this game to Boston. One, Maddon’s choice of Dan Wheeler. Wheeler had pitched 3.1 innings back in game 2, when he had only four outings all season longer than four outs and the last one of those was on May 6. Wheeler simply didn’t have anything tonight and with the off day yesterday and one tomorrow, Maddon had pretty much his whole bullpen at his disposal. When J.D. Drew came up, I thought at the time that you had to have J.P. Howell or David Price ready for that situation. Secondly with two outs, none on and a one run lead in the bottom of the eighth, why isn’t Upton playing deeper in center field? You have to be playing back to avoid doubles there.

Third and this one is much more minor, but Carlos Pena swinging at a 1-0 low slider that lead to an inning ending double play. It’s hard to second guess a hitter choosing to swing at a pitch that was probably a strike, but in that situation, with a huge platoon advantage in Pena facing Masterson , knowing that the biggest event you want to avoid is a pulled groundball and a count already in your favor, I think you should be more selective there for a ball more up in the zone or else dropping your bat lower to make sure you get under the ball.

Finally, and the eventual killer for the Rays, Evan Longoria made a fantastic stop on Kevin Youkilis‘ groundball, and he had all kinds of time to even stop his momentum, plant and throw to first. His terrible throw there was completely avoidable and especially in that situation with the Rays really needing some deep breaths, would have done much to settle them down heading to extra innings.

All that being said, this loss obviously hurts the Rays deeply. They had seven outs to get and a six run buffer to clinch the AL pennant and lost. That will hurt. However, let us not act like Boston just won the series. All they did was stay their execution for now. Games six and seven are in Tampa, where the Red Sox were just 1-8 during the regular season and the Rays overall were 57-24. Boston has an injured Josh Beckett going in game six, while Tampa gets to counter with James Shields. This series still greatly favors the Rays, dramatic comeback or not.

When the Phillies made the playoffs in 1993, I was eight years old, starting the second grade, and despite a claim staked as a baseball fan, largely unaware of the magnitude of the situation. It had been ten years since they last found themselves playing into October, and that ended with a disappointing four games to one loss to Cal Ripken’s Orioles in the World Series. I attended the 15-14 World Series game, but the only non-Joe Carter memory I can conjure up about that postseason is Fred McGriff mashing a long home run.

Last year, when the Phillies won the division on the final day of the season, I was absolutely elated. It was my senior year at Penn State University and I had come home for the weekend to attend my girlfriend’s sister’s sweet sixteen party. Luckily, the day of the party coincided with a lousy Adam Eaton performance that almost cost the Phillies their season, so I did not miss much. But the next day, my brother, a Phillies blogger at MVN, and my father, the former TV producer for the Phillies, watched in awe as Wily Mo Pena stood, dumbfounded, as a Brett Myers curveball resulted in a called third strike, and ultimately, the division.

After six or seven years of the Phillies coming within three games of the division and/or wild card, I was so excited that they made the playoffs that losing the division series did not matter to me. I did not care that they got swept by the Rockies, because the team I devote so much energy and so much of myself to, finally rewarded me for my loyal fandom. Sure, a division series win would have been nice, but they got there, and that is what mattered to me. This year, however, was a different story. Perhaps making the playoffs for the first time in my young adult years spoiled me, but I had expectations this season. Expectations that they could at least get back to the division series. The outlook appeared to be bleak at several different junctures, but they always battled back, and ended up winning the division for a second straight season.

Unlike last year, I wanted a division series win this time around. Last year, I got a sniff, but this year, I wanted a big, delicious bite. When the Brewers handed the Phillies game one on a silver platter, I was thrilled, but also uneasy due to the fact that the Phillies just as easily could have lost the game and did not perform too well outside of Cole Hamels. In Game Two, myself and fellow bar patrons went into an absolute frenzy when Shane Victorino hit a grand slam off of CC Sabathia, an event nobody could have predicted. Of course the annoying comments such as “CC-ya later” resulted when he was pulled from the game but the Phillies took a 2-0 lead into Milwaukee and I honestly felt that, wow, my bite was almost complete.

Dave Bush shut the Phillies down in game three, setting up an important fourth game matchup between Jeff “I am the epitome of average” Suppan and Joe “I am an innings eater, I swear!” Blanton. To show off my clairvoyant ability, I predicted that Jimmy Rollins would lead off the game with a home run, and vowed to buy a drink for everyone at my table if it came true. Of course, Rollins did hit a leadoff home run, and I lost $20 buying drinks. It was $20 well spent, though. Blanton pitched a gem, and even though the Eagles lost to the Redskins on the adjacent television set, my Phillies had won a playoff series and were actually advancing. It did not really sink in until I got ready for the first game of the championship series, one that looked like it would be very tough given the Dodgers recent run, and, of course, Manny Ramirez.

During game one, which took place in Philadelphia, I was very annoyed that the song leading into commercial breaks was “I Love LA” by Randy Newman. Nothing against Mr. Newman, but this game took place in Philadelphia, and even when the Phillies took a 3-2 lead, FOX’s usage of the song persisted. This was my first inclination that maybe, just maybe, FOX was pulling for the Dodgers. I didn’t mind, but when Joe Buck and Tim McCarver exhibited pro-Dodger broadcasting, failing to highlight or capitalize on solid plays by the Phillies, I grew more than ticked off. To FOX, Buck, and McCarver, shame on you. I understand that Dodgers-Red Sox would be huge ratings, but I tune into a game and like to hear objective announcing. Not only does Buck not understand that the opinion of a play by play guy is irrelevant, but McCarver is a complete idiot and gets by because “catchers are smart!”

Their broadcasting in this series was atrocious, only diagnosing aspects from the Dodgers point of view, and as Brian Joseph of MVN Outsider wrote, if I was going to tune in and listen to a Dodgers’ broadcast, at least give me Vin Scully. But I digress. Brett Myers and Shane Victorino handled the Dodgers with the bat in game two, giving the Phillies a 2-0 series lead heading to Manny-wood. In game three, Hiroki Kuroda manhandled the Phillies, who just could not do anything to erase an early 5-0 deficit. Russell Martin seemingly took pride in setting up inside to incite retaliation, but once again failed to back up his talking the talk with any semblance of walking the walk at the plate. Martin may be an all-star and a solid player, but he came off as an absolute punk in this series, whining about call after call, and not doing anything to back it up. He also should never have been batting behind Manny Ramirez because, well, he provided absolutely no protection.

Game four would be extremely important, as the difference between 2-2 and 3-1 is huge. The game appeared to belong to the Dodgers until Joe Torre’s odd usage of the bullpen resulted in Shane Victorino lining a two-run home run off of Cory Wade into the right field bullpen, knotting the game at 5-5. Then came the home run from new Phillies legend Matt Stairs, off of Jonathan Broxton, to put the Dodgers away, 7-5. Stairs pretty much has a one track swing, and Broxton threw him the best possible pitch for that track.

Last night, at a bar on Frankford and Cottman Avenue, I once again called that Rollins would hit a leadoff homer, but in case I was correct, did not offer to buy drinks. Jimmy did, in fact, lead the game off with a home run, so I saved some money and got just as much satisfaction. Howard and Burrell hit RBI singles of their own to put the Phillies up 3-0, and errors by Rafael Furcal led to the Phillies taking a 5-0 lead. I could feel it. I mean, I could really feel it. Hamels was cruising, the LA crowd was out of it, and there were only so many more outs before the Phillies could advance. For the fifth straight time, a Phillies pitcher failed to throw high heat to the target, missing with a fastball right down the middle, and Ramirez showed why he is one of the greatest hitters of all time, smacking a dinger into the right-center seats.

The home run only made the score 5-1, and after Cole Hamels got Jeff Kent looking, on a questionable pitch, I knew, deep down, the series was over. Ryan Madson, who has suddenly become unhittable, shut the Dodgers down in the 8th inning, before Brad Lidge had his typical Jose Mesa-like save, one which adds unnecessary drama. As Carlos Ruiz squeezed his glove on the Nomar foul ball, the next three minutes were an absolute blur, as I hugged and shook the hand of people I did not previously know and will never see again. We also apparently formed one of those pre-game NBA circles and were jumping around, screaming sentences that could not have made much sense.

The celebration then exited the bar and continued onto Frankford and Cottman Avenue, where there were easily 5,500 people celebrating in the streets, climbing street lights and stop signs, high-fiving, hugging, and just celebrating the fact that the Phillies were actually in the World Series. After about a half hour I got tired and needed to go home, but it still has not quite sunk in that the team I devote so much of myself to is now four games away from a world series. I don’t know how I will feel if they win or lose. I mean, clearly, I’ll be happy if they win, but since I have never experienced a championship, I don’t know if winning one would make me care less about the 2009 season or something along those lines. If they lose, I’ll still be happy they got there, but upset that some of my favorite faces, like Pat Burrell, probably won’t be returning.

Regardless, this was a hell of a year so far, and I just cannot believe that I actually care about the World Series this season. Now, if only they could stop showing that creepy astrophysicist and his commercials, I’d be set.

One of the main points that the statistical community has been trying to drive home for years is the availability of useful role players for practically nothing. When teams spend big money on below average players simply because they have a track record of success, they’re throwing money away, because comparable (or better) players can literally be claimed on waivers.

We get yet another example today, when Ryan Langerhans was outrighted off the Nationals 40 man roster. When you are outrighted off of a roster, you have to be placed on waivers, giving every team in baseball a chance to claim you for the waiver fee cost of $25,000. Every team in baseball decided they’d pass at picking him up for $25,000.

Langerhans isn’t a star, and he won’t be the best player on anyone’s team, but the idea that every major league team looked at him and said “meh, he can’t help us” is pretty crazy. In 139 plate appearances with the Nationals last year, he hit .234/.380/.396, an offensive performance built on a lot of walks and a bit of power. Even with the low batting average, he was an above average hitter, posting a WPA/LI of 0.21. When you get on base 38% of the time, you’re helping your team at the plate.

Now, Langerhans isn’t likely to repeat his .380 OBP next year, but he’s racked up 1141 plate appearances in his major league career and has a career .713 OPS. He’s totaled -1.51 WPA/LI during the equivalent of two full big league seasons, meaning that, on average, he’s been a little less than one win below an average hitter over a full season of play. Colin Wyers recently ran a set of 2009 Marcel Projections, which basically confirms this assessment – it has Langerhans as a .238/.346/.385 hitter and about 10 runs below an average hitter for next year.

Now, if he was a 280 pound, defense challenged first baseman, you could easily explain why no one was interested in carrying him. But Langerhans is a pretty terrific defensive outfielder, consistently showing off well above average range and tracking down fly balls in the gaps. He’s something like a league average defensive CF, or a +10 to +15 run guy while playing a full year in either LF or RF.

As a center fielder, Langerhans ability to get on base and cover ground could be a real benefit to a team, even just as a part-time player. The fact that he cleared waivers continues to show that MLB teams undervalue this skillset. Some smart team would do well to sign Langerhans to a league minimum salary this winter and let him serve as their fourth OF – he’ll provide some nice production for no cost expended.

The Graduate: Chris Volstad | Born: September 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Chris Volstad has always had a high profile as a former first round selection (16th overall) out of high school in 2005. He posted solid – but unspectacular – minor league numbers, mainly because of a low strikeout rates due to a reliance on the groundball. As he matures as a pitcher, he may strikeout more batters. Volstad allowed 193 hits in 168 2007 minor league innings, but rebounded to allow just 76 hits in 84.1 Major League innings. At 6-8 and 225 pounds, he has the body to be a workhorse for years to come and could be a more dominating Major League pitcher, than minor league, due to improved defence behind him.

The Riser: Logan Morrison | Born: August 1987 | First Baseman

I can hear the questions already: Why didn’t you pick Michael Stanton for ‘The Riser?’ Well, Stanton had an amazing year but he also had a higher prospect profile as a former second round pick. Logan Morrison, despite a pretty solid 2007 season in A-ball, was still underestimate by many at the beginning of 2008 – but no more. The former 22nd round selection, who spent the majority of the season as a 20-year-old in High-A ball, hit .332/.402/.494 in 488 at-bats. Average-wise, Morrison had a BABIP of .291 in 2007 and .377 in 2008, so his potential is probably somewhere in the middle. He also has impressive power and posted an ISO rate of .216 in 2007 and .162 in 2008.

The Tumbler: Brett Sinkbeil | Born: December 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Baseball is a funny game. Brett Sinkbeil was supposed to be the “safe college pick” to off-set a number of prep pitchers that were taken by the Marlins early on in the 2006 draft. Well, Sinkbeil spent the 2008 season scuffling in Double-A, while a number of those “risky picks” made it to Florida, including Chris Volstad and Ryan Tucker. Sinkbeil allowed 172 hits in 143.1 innings and posted rates of 3.20 BB/9 and 4.14 K/9.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Brad Hand | Born: March 1990 | Left-Handed Pitcher

While first round selection – and fellow prep pick – Kyle Skipworth struggled offensively in his debut, second rounder Brad Hand raised some eyebrows with his solid debut. He ended the season in the New York Penn League, which is mainly populated by college draft picks. Overall, Hand allowed 36 hits in 47.1 innings and posted rates of 4.00 BB/9 and 8.77 K/9. He already touches 93 mph, which is encouraging for a young lefty, and his secondary pitches show a lot of promise. Give Brad a hand (OK, I couldn’t resist).

The ’09 Sleeper: Jeff Allison | Born: November 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Josh Hamilton has shown that there is a possibility for a baseball life after drugs, and Jeff Allison is hoping to tell a similar story. The former 2003 first round selection appeared in just 25 games in five seasons while battling his demons. He returned for his first full pro season at the age of 23. His stuff is nowhere as dominating as it used to be but he battled on the mound while posting a 5.22 ERA in 120.2 innings. Allison allowed 122 hits, and posted rates of 4.25 BB/9 and 5.15 K/9. He is learning how to pitch without his best stuff.

Up Next: The Texas Rangers

Yesterday, we took a look at the free agent catchers and third basemen about to hit the open market. Now, we will look to the keystone cornermen, a fancy literary term that allows me to delay writing just simply, second basemen. Our 2009 Free Agent 2B Class ranges from 29-41 in age, with some solid veterans and nice complementary pieces, a couple of whom exploded in the second half. There are, however, no overt stars in this class, no equivalents to Mark Teixeira or CC Sabathia at their respective positions. A couple of these players might even retire, so their free agent status would not likely matter too much, but without further ado, here they are:

Name                   Age        G             Slash       WPA/LI
Felipe Lopez             29      143   .283/.343/.387        -0.17
Orlando Hudson           31      107   .305/.367/.450         0.52
Mark Ellis               32      117   .233/.321/.373        -0.19
Jerry Hairston           33       80   .326/.384/.487         0.98
David Eckstein           34       94   .265/.343/.349        -0.70
Tadahito Iguchi          34       85   .232/.292/.306        -1.23
Ray Durham               37      128   .289/.380/.432         1.03
Mark Loretta             37      101   .280/.350/.383        -0.05
Damion Easley            39      113   .269/.322/.370         0.29
Mark Grudzielanek        39       86   .299/.345/.399        -0.04
Jeff Kent                41      121   .280/.327/.418         0.73

Lopez, the youngest of the group, had performed so poorly during the first 2/3 of the 2008 season that even the Washington Nationals cut their ties with him. He latched on to the St. Louis express and proceeded to hit .385/.426/.538 over his final 43 games. A poor fielder, registering -14 in the +- system this year and a -6 last year, Lopez could be a nice combo SS/2B player somewhere, but shouldn’t be starting for any team seriously trying to make a run to the playoffs. His stretch with the Cardinals was borderline incredible, but it appeared to be nothing more than regression taking full form, making up for his putrid production in Washington.

Hudson, the O-Dawg, is a very consistent performer both offensively and defensively. He is not going to OPS above .900, but he has shown improvement over the last few years and has posted an OPS of .817 in back to back seasons. Couple that with very solid defense–a +20 and +13 before this year’s -4–and you have a very good second basemen. If he can show his injuries are merely a figment of the past, he should command a nice-sized four year deal somewhere.

Mark Ellis had a terrible season with the stick, but was the second best fielding keystone cornerman in baseball this year, at +26. Now, that is a far, far distant second from Chase Utley’s +47, but Ellis is the real deal with the glove, posting a +13 in 2006, +19 last season, and this year’s +26. If anything, he is getting better on the field. He did manage to hit 12 home runs this season, and his .249 BABIP did not help his offensive statistics, so if he is going to regress and continue his solid defense, he will be quite valuable.

Jerry Hairston had an interesting season, as Dave mentioned not too long ago, as he posted an .871 OPS, much higher than any other season of his. Granted, it took place in just 80 games, but perhaps you can see how this guy continues to get work. He played all over the field in 2008, with average to above average defensive skills, and, in just 80 games, was worth one win above an average player. David Eckstein, on the other hand, is not very good offensively, and his defensive skills have been eroding. After a +2 in 2006, he posted a -14 and -12 at shortstop. He did manage a +2 at second base this year, so it might be time for the champion of grit to permanently move to second base if he wants a starting job.

Even at 37 years old, Ray Durham was still immensely productive with the bat. Being a switch-hitter at a relatively poor offensive position, with oodles of veteran presence to dish out to youngsters, Durham probably has another 2-3 years left before he hangs up his cleats. If he was producing OPS counts in the .650s it might be different, but he basically had the same season as Orlando Hudson this year, if not better. He isn’t a solid fielder, by any stretch, but he will definitely find a home, likely in extended backup duty.

Damion Easley is the kind of player who elicits “he’s still around?” reactions all across the country. He may be 39, and his overall numbers might not be that solid, but he has shown a knack for hitting lefties extremely well. This drastic split deteriorated a bit in 2008, so he might not look as valuable as he may be, but I am sure he will find a home for a one year deal to platoon and hit off southpaws.

This brings us to Grudzy and Kent, two players who have at least hinted at retirement. Both are old, poor fielders, and losing many steps offensively. Kent is still a scary player off the bench, but at 41 years old, what else does he have to prove? If he cannot field and he is posting a lower SLG than Ray Durham, the only thing productive about him is his reputation as the second baseman with the most career home runs. Grudzielanek played a less than stellar 86 games for the Royals, and with his below average defense, is not worth a whole lot anymore. If I had ultimate control of the baseball universe, Kent, Grudzielanek, and Easley would retire, Loretta would become a utility player in the National League, Hudson and Ellis would get the bigger deals of this group, Eckstein would move to 2B, and Iguchi/Hairston/Lopez/Durham would get backup roles, occasionally with extended duty.