2008 ALCS: Same Picture So Far

With the Red Sox forcing a game 7 last night with their win against the Tampa Bay Rays, I thought it’d be fun see just how similar this series looks to last year’s ALCS when the Red Sox played the Indians.

A couple years ago I combined all the Win Probability charts of the 2004 ALCS. Here’s what the 2007 and 2008 ALCS look like when superimposed. 2008 is in red and 2007 is in black.

The Rays have thus far had a much better chance at winning the series than the Indians ever had. In the top of the 7th with Rays runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, they had a 99.3% chance of winning game 5. The Indians in 2007 had, at their best, a 57.9% chance of winning game 5, and never had better than a 50% chance to win game 6 and game 7.

When compared to the 2004 ALCS, the Yankees at one point had an 83.8% chance of clinching in game 4, and then an 87.8% chance of clinching in game 5.