Archive for October, 2008

The Hot Corner

Third base is nicknamed “the hot corner” due to the screaming liners or lightning-fast grounders that find their way to this position on the left side of the infield. Since the rest of the infield has been covered, we now turn to this hot corner to see which players stood out in a variety of different ways. While the discussion at third base usually begins with Alex Rodriguez, this year the position belonged to David Wright of the New York Mets. Wright produced a 5.20 WPA/LI, which ranked third in baseball behind Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez, let alone atop the list of third basemen.

In fact, Rodriguez did not finish directly behind Wright, either, as Chipper Jones put together quite the stellar season resulting in a 4.23 WPA/LI, about a win less than Wright. Rodriguez did come in third, on the heels of a 3.59, with Aramis Ramirez a half-win behind at 3.01. After these four, however, a wide gap separates them from the rest of the pack. In fifth place is Troy Glaus of the Cardinals, at 1.73, with Evan Longoria right behind at 1.71. Lastly, I am not quite sure how Jorge Cantu did not win the Comeback Player of the Year Award, but he produce a 1.35 WPA/LI for the surprising Marlins.

Third base is traditionally a solid-hitting position, and this year was no different than years past. Amongst those that qualified for the leaderboards, only Chone Figgins and Marco Scutaro were legitimately below average with the stick. In Scutaro’s defense, he only played 46 games at the hot corner this year, though his playing time was almost equally split between third base, shortstop, and second base. If we remove the qualifier, Andy LaRoche finished last at -1.82, with former hot prospect Andy Marte barely in front at -1.81. Jose Castillo (-1.44), Mike Lamb (-1.23), and Pedro Felix (-0.98) rounded out the bottom.

Feliz has been the best fielding third basemen in baseball over the last few years, but time missed to injuries and starts given to the more offensive-prone Greg Dobbs resulted in his fall from the top ten. Adrian Beltre, much maligned for falling short of expectations, led the way by a vast margin with a +32. Beltre has been very productive for the Mariners and it simply is not fair to compare him to the 48 HR version of him on the Dodgers prior to signing. Behind Beltre is Jack Hannahan of the Athletics, at +21. Hannahan is an interesting case as he was very adept defensively, but average or slightly below average at the plate closer to replacement level at the dish.

Behind Hannahan are a pair of third basemen that missed significant time yet performed well enough while healthy to finish with a +13. Scott Rolen, who played in just 115 games, and Joe Crede, in just 97 games, tied for third place. Fifth place brought with it a three-way tie between Evan Longoria, Blake DeWitt, and Chone Figgins, at +11. Figgins may have been below average with a bat in his hands, but his fielding was solid, and his baserunning topped all other third basemen. According to Baseball Prospectus’s EqBRR, a form of runs contributed due to base advancements, Figgins finished 8th in baseball at 7.66, with no other third basemen finishing in the top thirty. Next closest was Alex Gordon, 33rd, at 3.37.

Figgins also led with 34 stolen bases. Three players hit 40+ doubles, with Aramis leading the way with 44; David Wright‘s 42 and Jorge Cantu’s 41 were right behind him. The triples crown is split five ways between the scary quintet of Martin Prado, Jamey Carroll, Brandon Inge, Jose Castillo, and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Alex Rodriguez clouted 35 longballs, slightly ahead of Wright’s 33. But Chipper Jones took the OPS crown among third basemen, with a gaudy 1.044.

One player of note is Russell Branyan, who, in 50 games, produced a .230/.342/.583 line, a .925 OPS, complete with 12 home runs and 8 doubles in 132 at-bats. For anyone wondering why he is consistently given work, look no further. He may strike out a ton but the man gets on base and absolutely mashes. I know I was thrilled when the Phillies acquired him last year, and there are few lefty threats off the bench like him. You need not be a superstar to produce significant outputs at the major league level, and Branyan should be appreciated a bit more.

UPDATE: Apparently, Jack Hannahan looks better than he should due to a park adjustment. Regardless of his offense, he was the second best defensive third basemen this year.


A Minor Review of 2008: The Phillies

The Graduate: J.A. Happ | Born: October 1982 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Oddly enough, the Phillies did not employee any rookie long enough in 2008 to expire his rookie status, but instead of leaving this space blank I thought we could take a quick look at J.A. Happ who could be in line for more playing time in 2009. Happ was valuable in his brief time in Philly because of his versatility, as he made four relief appearances and four starts. His stuff is nothing special (although the fastball is hard to pick up and has good movement) and he allowed a few too many walks (3.98 BB/9), but he limited the hits (7.96 H/9) and struck out his fair share of batters (7.69 K/9)

The Riser: Michael Taylor | Born: December 1985 | Outfielder

You could make the argument for a few names in this spot, which is great news for the organization, but I went with Michael Taylor because he made a bigger jump from where he was in 2007. The hulking outfielder (6-6, 260 pounds) was not even considered to be among the organization’s top prospects entering into 2008, after being drafted out of Stanford in the fifth round of the 2007 amateur draft. He split the season between both A-ball affiliates and hit .361/.441/.554 with a .193 ISO in Lakewood and .329/.380/.560 with a .230 ISO in Clearwater.

The Tumbler: Joe Savery | Born: November 1985 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Joe Savery all but disappeared while pitching in High-A ball in 2008. He was drafted 17th overall out of Rice University in the 2007 draft – and would have been taken higher if not for his history of injuries. Savery’s stuff was not at all like it used to be, especially with his fastball missing oomph. He allowed rates of 10.24 H/9, 3.59 BB/9 and 7.30 K/9. The 2009 season will be huge for Savery, who needs to get back on track to realize his former potential.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Jason Knapp | Born: August 1990 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Jason Knapp was drafted in the second round of the 2008 draft out of a New Jersey high school and immediately made himself known in Rookie ball. Knapp posted a 2.61 ERA in seven appearances and allowed just 26 hits in 31 innings. He also posted rates of 3.48 BB/9 and 11.03 K/9.

The ’09 Sleeper: Drew Naylor | Born: May 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Drew Naylor, an Australian, had a nice first full season in professional baseball, after spending the previous two years in short-season ball. He allowed 69 hits as well as rates of 2.16 BB/9 and 10.00 K/9 in 87.1 A-ball innings, before moving up to High-A where he allowed 86 hits and rates of 3.58 BB/9 and 6.81 K/9 in 78 innings. Naylor must continue to improve his secondary pitches – a curveball and change-up – which complement his low-90s fastball.

Up Next: The Seattle Mariners


The Shortstop Landscape

With first basemen in the books and our look at keystone cornermen last night, our attention will now turn to shortstop, a position once populated with mega-stars such as Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez, and Nomar Garciaparra. Now, we have the new breed of shortstops, all of whom play in the NL East, with last names beginning with same letter: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes. Rollins took home the NL MVP award last season, in a much-debated race. Ramirez is probably the most underrated player in the game of baseball right now. And Reyes is one of the most exciting and talented players in the game.

Offensively, Hanley Ramirez is in a league of his own, with a 4.24 WPA/LI, just about two wins better than closest competitor JJ Hardy of the Brewers. Hardy checks in with 2.27, just ahead of Reyes and his 2.20. Jimmy Rollins places fourth, over a full win less than Reyes, at 1.02, with Christian Guzman slightly behind at 0.96. Rollins did have a disappointing season in 2008, in which he saw his power output diminish. He also missed some time early in the year due to injury, which is uncharacteristic of his career. His value extended beyond just the regular forms of evaluated offense this year, however.

On the basepaths, Bill James’ baserunning score placed him fifth in the entire major leagues with a +46. This metric adds one point for each steal while subtracting two for each time caught stealing, and factors in how often a player was able to get from first to third, second to home, first to home, and avoid double plays. No other shortstop ranked in the top ten. Looking solely at the stolen base portion, Jose Reyes finished sixth, but he could not capitalize enough on the base advancement factors to earn a spot in the top ten.

Additionally, Rollins led all shortstops with a +23 in the field, making him this year’s best fielding shortstop. Yunel Escobar of the Braves finished slightly behind Jimmy, at +21, with JJ Hardy and Cesar Izturis tied for third place at +19. Jack Wilson rounded out the top five with a +16. All of this does not push Rollins into the same area as Ramirez, by any stretch, but serves as an important reminder of why more factors other than offense need to be taken into account when evaluating a season.

Yunel is a pretty neat example of a role reversal. Last year, in half a season with the Braves, he was well above average with the stick, but scored a 0 in the +- fielding system, making him the epitome of a league average shortstop. This year, his WPA/LI deemed him a league average hitter, yet he was the second best fielding shortstop. Oh, how things change.

On the opposite of the effectiveness spectrum, Bobby Crosby’s -2.56 WPA/LI was by far the worst in baseball for shortstops, a full win worse than Yuniesky Betancourt. In the field, Crosby was a -13, with Betancourt a -19, so it is not as if Crosby played gold glove caliber defense. He had a dreadful season. Orlando Cabrera (-1.43), Edgar Renteria (-1.40), and Miguel Tejada (-1.27) round out the bottom five.

Stephen Drew led the pack with 44 doubles, with Jose Reyes topping everyone with his 19 triples. Hanley Ramirez led with 33 home runs, 92 walks, and a .940 OPS. Albert Pujols should win the MVP award this year in the National League, but based on how long the Marlins stayed in the race, Hanley Ramirez should not go unnoticed at all. His fielding has improved as well, with a +3 this year compared to a -37 in 2007. Yuniesky struck out the least, just 42 times. Rollins swung the least often, offering on just 39.7% of the pitches thrown his way. Despite that, he made contact on 90.8% of those swings, a rate topped only by Ryan Theriot and Marco Scutaro, who also found themselves at the top in percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone.

We also cannot forget Troy Tulowitzki, who had an injury-plagued sophomore campaign after proving himself as quite capable offensively and a wizard with the glove in 2007. Or even Rafael Furcal, who had a scorchingly hot April before going into hibernation only to return just in time for the division series. With Troy, Jose, Hanley, and perhaps Yunel on the rise, with veterans like Furcal, Rollins and Guzman still remaining valuable, this position might lack the star power of the A-Rod days, but it is still very talented.


Season in Review: Philadelphia Phillies

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Eight: Philadelphia Phillies

Ranking 9th in offense and 12th in defense by BaseRuns, the Phillies are the third team in the second group of balanced offense-defense squads with the White Sox and Brewers above them.

The rotation consisted of two full season average performances from Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers, a superb season from Cole Hamels and the worst statistical performance (factoring playing time) among pitchers this year from Kyle Kendrick.

In relief, Brad Lidge came back with a vengeance, recapturing a performance level not seen since 2005. Given the payoff (a playoff berth) and the poor performance of Michael Bourn, the offseason trade has to be considered a win for Philadelphia thus far. Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin combined to toss 151.1 innings of good relief, a contribution hugely helpful given the mediocre rotation throughout the year.

Aside from their above average bullpen, the offense is where the Phillies really shown, even after adjusting for their ball park. The Phillies were a catcher and a third baseman away from being above average at every position. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth all produced at a high level over regular playing time and they even dragged out 240 solid plate appearances from Greg Dobbs after Pedro Feliz didn’t really work out.

The Phillies in 2009 will have enough on their plate just retaining their current players with many of them due significant raises via arbitration. Despite rumors that Ryan Howard might find himself on the trading block given his record arbitration reward, team sources seem to say that the likelihood that Howard is dealt is near zero. The Phillies also seem keen on trying to retain Pat Burrell, but the main question for them is going to be shoring up their rotation.


Keystone Cornermen

Yesterday, we took a look at the first basemen in baseball this past season, looking at the good, the bad, and the Konerko. Today, our attention turns to second base, one of those pesky middle infield positions to see which bright spots housed the most shine, and where some of that light needs to be directed moving forward. Ultimately, though, there were really only two standouts at second base this year, when you factor in offense, defense, and baserunning: Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia. Utley is both a fan favorite and a saber-darling, as many analysts cannot wrap their heads around how the Phillies won the MVP award in 2006 and 2007 and neither of them went to former UCLA star. Pedroia may very well walk home with the AL MVP this year in a very open race.

When looking solely at offense, there were actually quite a few solid performers at the position this year. Outside of Utley and Pedroia, Dan Uggla smacked 32 more home runs, Ian Kinsler helped spearhead a scary Rangers offense, and Mark DeRosa emerged as a legitimate offensive threat–he may have played all over the place this season but the majority was at second base.

Via WPA/LI, Chase Utley was close to one and a half wins better than anyone else at the position:

Chase Utley, 3.63
Dan Uggla, 2.27
Dustin Pedroia, 2.03
Mark DeRosa, 1.89
Ian Kinsler, 1.62

When we use VORP, we get a slightly different story:

Dustin Pedroia, 62.3
Chase Utley, 62.2
Ian Kinsler, 54.6
Brian Roberts, 50.6
Dan Uggla, 42.5

This is strictly offense, though, so what happens when the defensive element is introduced:

Chase Utley, +47
Mark Ellis, +26
Adam Kennedy, +19
Brandon Phillips, +17
Dustin Pedroia, +15

Only Utley and Petey remain, further establishing my assertion that this position belonged purely to the two of them this season. Based on the fact that Utley made over three times more plays than Pedroia relative to the average second basemen and that he either leads by a large margin, or is essentially tied to Pedroia in several offensive categories, it is in no way a stretch to conclude he had the best season for a keystone cornerman. Pedroia may walk home with some hardware, but Utley performed better, and I’m not just saying that as a fan of the Phillies.

In the baserunning department, Ian Kinsler scored a +41 based on his stolen base success and ability to advance to bases or take the next base. This put him seventh in the sport, ahead of all other second basemen. Placido Polanco‘s 43 strikeouts were the least, and Brian Roberts‘ 82 walks were the most amongst these players. Utley hit the most home runs, 33, and produced the highest OPS, .915. Pedroia came within four doubles of Todd Helton’s “record” of 58, as he hit 54 two-baggers. Helton isn’t the record holder, but in recent history, nobody has more than his 58 from several years ago. Akinori Iwamura led the way with 9 triples in that department.

On the flipside, Freddy Sanchez and Robinson Cano had abysmal offensive seasons, finishing with a -1.44 and -1.31 WPA/LI, respectively. This does not mean either is a poor player, but rather that they had poor seasons. Factor in defense and it becomes clear that Cano had the worst season of any second basemen. Sanchez’s +2 at the position put him 11th, while Cano’s -16 placed him 34th, as he made sixteen less plays than an average second basemen. Entering the season, the thought existed that Cano might be able to challenge Utley in some way for second base supremacy. I don’t think anybody anticipated they would find themselves as polar opposites on both offense and defense. Tomorrow, we turn to Shortstops and Third Basemen, before finishing off the infield with Catchers on Friday.


A Minor Review of 2008: The Angels

The Graduate: Jose Arredondo | Born: March 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Jose Arredondo has always had a great arm, but he was inconsistent throughout his minor league career, especially as a starting pitcher. Once the Angels moved him to the bullpen full-time, however, Arredondo flourished. In 2008, the right-hander won 10 games out of the bullpen for the Angels and posted a 1.62 ERA. He allowed 42 hits in 61 innings and posted rates of 3.25 BB/9 and 8.11 K/9. Arredondo also allowed just three homers and should be in line for even more important work in 2009, especially if Francisco Rodriguez flies the coup.

The Riser: Mark Trumbo | Born: January 1986 | First Baseman

Mark Trumbo, 21, took full benefit of his hitting environment in 2008 and posted career numbers. The former two-way player slugged 26 homers in 407 at-bats in the hitter’s haven in Rancho Cucamonga (California League) and posted an ISO of .270. He then maintained his power reasonably well upon his promotion to Double-A where he posted an ISO of .220 in 32 games. Trumbo probably won’t hit for a high average at the Major League level but he is well on his way to displaying average to above-average power for a first baseman. After making 22 errors at first base in 2008, Trumbo is likely a future designated hitter.

The Tumbler: Nick Adenhart | Born: August 1986 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Rushed to the Majors in 2008, Nick Adenhart imploded. He lacked the necessary command or confidence to survive at the Major League level and he took his struggles back to Triple-A with him upon his demotion. Overall on the year, Adenhart allowed 173 hits in 145.1 Triple-A innings and posted rates of 4.64 BB/9 and 6.81 K/9. In 12 Major League innings, Adenhart allowed 18 hits and 13 walks. He will spend most of 2009 in Triple-A again, trying to regain his composure while also working on consistency and command.

The ’08 Draft Pick: Tyler Chatwood | Born: December 1989 | Right-Handed Pitcher

The Angels lacked a first round draft pick in 2008 but the organization was thrilled to nab Tyler Chatwood in the second round (74th overall). Committed to UCLA, the Angels gave Chatwood half a million dollars to forgo a college career and he had some success in his first pro season despite his young age. He posted a strikeout rate of 11.37 K/9 in Rookie Ball, but also had a hideous rate of 8.53 BB/9. When he got the ball over the plate, Chatwood was tough to hit, as he allowed just 25 hits in 38 innings. He has a lot of work to do, but the right-hander is extremely promising.

The ’09 Sleeper: P.J. Phillips | Born: September 1986 | Infielder

The brother of Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips, P.J. Phillips has struggled in his minor league career due to a lack of patience coupled with too many strikeouts. The youngster made strides in 2008, although there is still work to be done to take full advantage of his athleticism and raw power potential. He “improved” his walk rate from 3.3% in 2007 to 4.7 BB% in 2008 and lowered his strikeout rate from 35.3% to 25.8%. P.J. also utilized his speed to slug 11 triples and steal 35 bases. Double-A will be a huge test for him in 2009.

Next Up: The Philadelphia Phillies


Season in Review: Milwaukee Brewers

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Seven: Milwaukee Brewers

Finally returning to the National League, we coincidentally stumble upon the second National League team that was eliminated from the playoffs. The Brewers were the inverse of the White Sox in terms of BaseRuns rankings, coming in 13th with runs scored and 8th in runs allowed.

The underrated quality for the Brewers were their defense, with the second best defensive efficiency ratio among National League teams. Paired with a front heavy rotation, the Brewers seemed like they had a good postseason recipe, but alas it was not to be. In the rotation, obviously the big horses of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets were helpful but were almost erased by the horribleness of Jeff Suppan.

As much as the defense and front of the rotation helped was as bad as the bullpen was. Eric Gagne, David Riske and even Derrick Turnbow over his ridiculously small sample were so terrible as to scuttle the entire unit. There were a handful of average performances like Carlos Villaneuva, Brian Shouse and Seth McClung, but average isn’t enough to overcome the 80 innings of complete suck from Gagne and Riske.

On the hitting side, the Brewers find some good news, starting with a recovering sophomore season from Ryan Braun. An underrated move (again, defense) was the Mike Cameron acquisition who combined his superb defense with an offensive game that was finally allowed to shine through after a decade played in tough hitter’s parks.

For the past three years or so, analysts have been pointing out that Milwaukee’s door was opening, and while in 2008 the Brewers finally walked through, has their door slammed shut in a snap? Sabathia and Sheets could be gone leaving the Brewers’ rotation as a giant question mark. Matt LaPorta is gone to Cleveland for Sabathia and if 2009 is shaping up as a re-building year, are we looking at Prince Fielder being dangled on the trading block? We could always use more talent changing teams this news worthy winter.


Those Crazy First-Sackers

For the rest of the week I am going to be taking a position-by-position look at players, discussing the best and worst in certain measures. For those keeping score at home, we are going to begin with first basemen, position number three in your lineup key. According to our leaderboard page, there were 27 players that qualified for inclusion amongst first basemen, ranging from the brilliance of Albert Pujols to the, well, complete opposite of brilliance produced by Daric Barton. Via WPA/LI, Albert Pujols was over one and a half wins better than any other first baseman. He should be the senior circuit’s most valuable player, though that much is yet to be seen. Here are the top five in terms of context-neutral wins:

Albert Pujols, 6.48
Lance Berkman, 4.81
Mark Teixeira, 4.69
Adrian Gonzalez, 3.43
Carlos Delgado, 3.00

And the bottom five:

Daric Barton, -1.09
Kevin Millar, -0.85
Ryan Garko, -0.48
Paul Konerko, 0.02
Casey Kotchman, 0.22

Interesting how the fourth and fifth worst marks in this metric were still above average, which goes to show just how offensive-minded of a position first base can be. Speaking of offense, Ryan Howard led all first basemen with 48 home runs. Lance Berkman led with 18 stolen bases, which I am still having trouble wrapping my head around. Justin Morneau may not have lit the world on fire with longballs, and may not even be the most valuable player on his own team, let alone the league, but he did lead first basemen with 47 doubles.

James Loney and Conor Jackson tied for the lead with 6 triples apiece; somehow, Ryan Howard managed to hit four three-baggers. Straight out of the not-so-shocking department, Albert Pujols led with 104 walks, and struck out just 54 times. Unfortunately for Albert, Casey Kotchman fanned just 39 times, for the lowest total. But, Pujols posted the highest ISO at .296 and highest OPS at 1.114, so something tells me he wouldn’t let finishing second in least strikeouts amongst first basemen bother him too much.

Mike Jacobs, who hit for plenty of power this year but virtually refused to get on base any other way, swung the most, offering at 54% of the pitches thrown his way. Albert once again topped all first basemen, this time in contact made, as he was able to get his bat on 90% of the pitches he swung at. Kevin Youkilis, formerly nicknamed the Greek God of Walks, is still displaying excellent patience, so it is no wonder he led with 53.47% of pitches seen in the strike zone. After all, if he will not swing at a pitch outside the zone, why throw them with great frequency?

In the fielding department, Mark Teixeira led with a +24, followed by Pujols at +20, the surprising Joey Votto at +19, Lance Berkman at +18, and Carlos Pena at +14. Based on the WPA/LI and fielding data, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, and Lance Berkman were the three best first basemen this year, with the order of Tex and Lance virtually being up to he who decides to arrange them in a given order. Plenty of first-sackers may hit for power, but these three displayed brilliance all around. Lastly, Geovany Soto likely has the Rookie of the Year award in the national league locked up, but Joey Votto had a very, very good year, largely under the radar, displaying both power and solid fielding skills. Hopefully for Reds fans he can build upon this year and not experience any type of slump next season.


Renegade BBWAA Awards

Over at Statistically Speaking, and The Hardball Times, my pal and colleague Pizza Cutter has posted the results of what I guess we are deeming the Renegade BBWAA Awards. The premise was simple: contact as many stathead bloggers as possible, and ask them to offer first, second, and third place votes for the three major awards in each league. The awards in question were the MVP, Cy Young Award, and Rookie of the Year. It did not make much sense to include Comeback Player of the Year or any other absolutely ridiculous award designed to give some sponsor of major league baseball air time.

The results are posted at both of the linked sites in the above paragraph, but instead of going over who we voted for, with arguments for and/or against, I wanted to touch on how we probably picked the same player as the BBWAA in five of the six instances. I cannot see Albert Pujols not winning the NL MVP, though I sincerely doubt it will be a unanimous victory as in our poll. Geovany Soto is a lock for NL Rookie of the Year, and while I personally voted for Johan Santana for NL Cy Young Award, I have a very strong inclination that Tim Lincecum will walk home with some impressive hardware.

The AL Rookie of the Year award was essentially won by Evan Longoria after one week in the major leagues. Okay, maybe not literally, but what I mean is that ever since his call-up, this has been his award to lose, and despite missing time with an injury, he will probably receive votes for a more “important” award, let alone enough to win this one. In the AL Cy Young Award race, I felt our results most clearly depicted what happened in the junior circuit this year, with Cliff Lee eventually winning, but Roy Halladay finishing very, very close. I can honestly see Cliff being an almost unanimous choice in reality, but Halladay definitely deserves some first place votes. Hey, at least Toronto has some BBWAA members!

The only award that seems to be up in the air is the AL MVP. I mean seriously, who is the AL’s most valuable player? Our votes resulted in a tie between Joe Mauer of the Twins and Grady Sizemore of the Indians. Alex Rodriguez finished third, with Dustin Pedroia finishing fourth. I support the Mauer choice even though he lacks the drama and superstar quality that writers seem to look for. I cannot support the Grady Sizemore choice for the simple reason that I just cannot truly justify giving both the Cy Young Award and MVP to players on an 81-81 team. A team does not have to make the playoffs to have an award winner, but the Indians were out of the race all season. Sizemore had a fantastic year, and put up gaudy statistics, but if I had to vote for the MVP specifically from the Indians, I might actually be more inclined to go with Lee. And why isn’t Evan Longoria getting more mention?

I really see Pedroia taking home the award when it is announced, but has there been a tougher AL MVP race in recent history? It seems that nobody is a clear-cut candidate. Anyways, if you are interested in participating in this next year, simply send myself or Pizza Cutter an e-mail.


Season in Review: Chicago White Sox

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Six: Chicago White Sox

Number six is our fifth American League team and the third of the four playoff teams from that league. The inclusion of the strength of schedule factor makes the biggest impact here as the White Sox, by virtue of having the sixth most difficult schedule in baseball during 2008 vault four spots up the list after adjusting for it.

When evaluating the White Sox relative strengths and weaknesses it is important to remember that their home park is a veritable launching pad and thus while BaseRuns might make you think the White Sox’s offense (8th ranked) was more key to their success than their defense (13th), but those are not park adjusted numbers. Once you factor in the park, it becomes clear just how important the White Sox pitching was this season while the offense was rather pedestrian.

The White Sox offense was driven by Carlos Quentin with solid assistance from Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome and a surprising Alexei Ramirez. Aside from those three however there wasn’t much to write home about. Notably there were huge issues with getting runners on base and, perhaps atypical to Ozzie Guillen’s reputation built on the White Sox World Series run from a few years ago, the White Sox this season were very much a station to station team ranking last in the league in triples and second to last in stolen bases, but leading in home runs.

The star of this team was the rotation which boasted almost universally above average performances and fronted by Javier Vazquez, John Danks and Mark Buehrle. Gavin Floyd provided a solid innings-eater performance in addition. On the relief side there were numerous more good pitchers. Bobby Jenks and the saves obvious get the lion’s share of attention, but Matt Thornton’s blossoming into a useful left-handed reliever was just as, if not more, important. Scott Linebrink even rediscovered his good San Diego-era performance level. All in all, just a fantastic all around pitching staff.

The good news for Chicago is that their pitching staff shouldn’t see too much turnover into 2009, though one would be wise to remain cautious on the bullpen performance as those are always tough to count on. The offense needs help though. They should get some in Nick Swisher regressing from his poor luck (20.9% line drive rate, .251 BABIP), but they’ll need more than that.